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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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26 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I actually agree with everything here and his reasoning but still think his comments were overly harsh and not necessary.

I by no means am saying that he should have taken the offer but a valuable handcuff isn’t just a “backup” and while I was interested in Smith, obviously, I wouldn’t have actually started him with Kittle and Gronk on my roster already. 

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5 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I don't get why people think the Vikings offense is TE friendly. 😕

They have used TE's quite a bit around the goal line.  Smith had 5 TD's last year (albeit it was only in three games).  As a Viking fan it is frustrating that they don't use the TE more because whenever they do go to them they seem to be open for chunk gains.  

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38 minutes ago, Gally said:

I think mainly because he doesn't trust his evaluations so he is reluctant to actually pull the trigger.  

This is so true... I have been this guy and the other guy with this dynamic in play plenty of times.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I by no means am saying that he should have taken the offer but a valuable handcuff isn’t just a “backup” and while I was interested in Smith, obviously, I wouldn’t have actually started him with Kittle and Gronk on my roster already. 

I totally hear you and major difference between an offer I'd not accept vs the offer being treated as an insult. Had something similar happen to me last week, and after I actually used Hindery's trade value chart to craft what I thought was a reasonable offer. I had zero issue with the guy not accepting my offer and never would, but he came at me like I was hard insulting him and I found the whole thing annoying mainly because I went out of my way to try and present a reasonable offer and on top of it was making offer due to message he left about type of trade he was seeking.

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Unfortunately FFB seems to be increasingly populated with guys like this. Their crap offers and expectations are okay but yours, that are at least a little in line with calculators/trade charts/what have you, are "insulting".

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7 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Unfortunately FFB seems to be increasingly populated with guys like this. Their crap offers and expectations are okay but yours, that are at least a little in line with calculators/trade charts/what have you, are "insulting".

A trade offer is not an insult.  I don't understand the point of being like this.  It's a silly game where you are all guessing on what other people are going to perform like.  You will be right, wrong and in between.  It's not a personal attack and nobody dies if you make a bad trade.  Just have fun with it while not being a tool and it makes things so much more interesting/fun.  

 

 

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In an FFPC SF where we just completed the startup a couple months ago I offered Waddle and my future 1st for Mixon and a cheap WR and was told it was insulting and that if he had accepted it, the FFPC folks would have likely got involved because it was so imbalanced. Then he quoted a couple trade calcs. But the thing is it has my future 1st as being worth very little. The site he quoted (and I look at it too) does not give much weight to picks compared to other sites. The disparity between reality and their calc values for future 1sts was really apparent during the rookie drafts this month. And I know future picks never hold as much value as when they are OTC, but in this case they are saying a random future 1st is only worth about half of what it would be if it were a current 1.12. That's crazy. Plus I have James Robinson as my RB2 and went light at QB in this SF format, so my future 1st is questionable at best in terms of how high it might finish. Anyway. I found it ludicrous that Waddle and a 1st would be considered FFPC veto worthy after he just put Mixon OTB. 

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9 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

In an FFPC SF where we just completed the startup a couple months ago I offered Waddle and my future 1st for Mixon and a cheap WR and was told it was insulting and that if he had accepted it, the FFPC folks would have likely got involved because it was so imbalanced. Then he quoted a couple trade calcs. But the thing is it has my future 1st as being worth very little. The site he quoted (and I look at it too) does not give much weight to picks compared to other sites. The disparity between reality and their calc values for future 1sts was really apparent during the rookie drafts this month. And I know future picks never hold as much value as when they are OTC, but in this case they are saying a random future 1st is only worth about half of what it would be if it were a current 1.12. That's crazy. Plus I have James Robinson as my RB2 and went light at QB in this SF format, so my future 1st is questionable at best in terms of how high it might finish. Anyway. I found it ludicrous that Waddle and a 1st would be considered FFPC veto worthy after he just put Mixon OTB. 

I don't know much about FFPC but I doubt they're complete idiots.

That dude is clueless. 

This stuff must be what it's like for NFL teams to deal with Dave Gettleman.

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7 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I don't know much about FFPC but I doubt they're complete idiots.

That dude is clueless. 

This stuff must be what it's like for NFL teams to deal with Dave Gettleman.

It has to be *really* egregious for them to get involved. Generally speaking if there is consent between two adults they don't get in the way. I'm sure there are some good examples but I can't think of any off the top of my head. 

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I feel like I’m sailing very close to the Assistant Coach winds here, but I’ll give it a go. How do people value Trey Lance in SF relative to the kind of player you can get at early second round value of a startup draft? For those of you who have say Tyreek, DK, Swift would the 1.02 be an offer you’d accept to then draft Lance? 

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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

In an FFPC SF where we just completed the startup a couple months ago I offered Waddle and my future 1st for Mixon and a cheap WR and was told it was insulting and that if he had accepted it, the FFPC folks would have likely got involved because it was so imbalanced. Then he quoted a couple trade calcs. But the thing is it has my future 1st as being worth very little. The site he quoted (and I look at it too) does not give much weight to picks compared to other sites. The disparity between reality and their calc values for future 1sts was really apparent during the rookie drafts this month. And I know future picks never hold as much value as when they are OTC, but in this case they are saying a random future 1st is only worth about half of what it would be if it were a current 1.12. That's crazy. Plus I have James Robinson as my RB2 and went light at QB in this SF format, so my future 1st is questionable at best in terms of how high it might finish. Anyway. I found it ludicrous that Waddle and a 1st would be considered FFPC veto worthy after he just put Mixon OTB. 

This is why I had those trade calc sites when owners use them as gospel.  They are just guesses just like everyone else is guessing.  It's nice as a piece of info but that's it.  It's not the end all be all and when people use it like that it makes it really hard to get anything done.  

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1 hour ago, Gally said:

This is why I had those trade calc sites when owners use them as gospel.  They are just guesses just like everyone else is guessing.  It's nice as a piece of info but that's it.  It's not the end all be all and when people use it like that it makes it really hard to get anything done.  

Yes recently when I texted with a league mate about a trade and how we weren’t close. He tried to break out the trade calculator to show its fair value based on the points. The problem  was it was the classic 4 Quarters for a Dollar offer. 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Yes recently when I texted with a league mate about a trade and how we weren’t close. He tried to break out the trade calculator to show its fair value based on the points. The problem  was it was the classic 4 Quarters for a Dollar offer. 

Additionally just because something is fair doesn’t obligate you to take the deal...

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11 hours ago, menobrown said:

I totally hear you and major difference between an offer I'd not accept vs the offer being treated as an insult. Had something similar happen to me last week, and after I actually used Hindery's trade value chart to craft what I thought was a reasonable offer. I had zero issue with the guy not accepting my offer and never would, but he came at me like I was hard insulting him and I found the whole thing annoying mainly because I went out of my way to try and present a reasonable offer and on top of it was making offer due to message he left about type of trade he was seeking.

Life’s too short for these #######s

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Yes recently when I texted with a league mate about a trade and how we weren’t close. He tried to break out the trade calculator to show its fair value based on the points. The problem  was it was the classic 4 Quarters for a Dollar offer. 

That's why I like keeptradecut, it adjusts the points with a boost to the team giving the best individual players to prevent stacking a bunch of mediocre players for one good one.

ETA: Not that I use it as gospel or anything.  But it's a nice feature.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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17 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

That's why I like keeptradecut, it adjusts the points with a boost to the team giving the best individual players to prevent stacking a bunch of mediocre players for one good one.

ETA: Not that I use it as gospel or anything.  But it's a nice feature.

I just checked this out. Thanks.

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12 hours ago, Gally said:

A trade offer is not an insult.  I don't understand the point of being like this.  It's a silly game where you are all guessing on what other people are going to perform like.  You will be right, wrong and in between.  It's not a personal attack and nobody dies if you make a bad trade.  Just have fun with it while not being a tool and it makes things so much more interesting/fun. 

A legitimate trade offer isn't an insult. Even an imbalanced trade might not be an insult due to differences in player evaluation.  However, there ARE insulting trades and you know it when you see them.

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10 hours ago, dewmass said:

I feel like I’m sailing very close to the Assistant Coach winds here, but I’ll give it a go. How do people value Trey Lance in SF relative to the kind of player you can get at early second round value of a startup draft? For those of you who have say Tyreek, DK, Swift would the 1.02 be an offer you’d accept to then draft Lance? 

No.

Seems simpler to ask where Lance might go in a startup...

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11 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

That's why I like keeptradecut, it adjusts the points with a boost to the team giving the best individual players to prevent stacking a bunch of mediocre players for one good one.

ETA: Not that I use it as gospel or anything.  But it's a nice feature.

Never heard of that site. I really like it. Thanks!

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18 hours ago, BigAl21 said:

Additionally just because something is fair doesn’t obligate you to take the deal...

Absolutely. Even if it is more than fair. I declined a deal last year that was moderately to blatantly in my favor on paper. But it would have torpedoed my RB corps midseason in what turned out to be a championship season. Who knows maybe if I'd taken the deal I would have then pivoted to trying to snag a RB somewhere. But just because I would have had a surplus of stud WRs doesn't mean that I can walk into the RB store and grab one off the shelf at my leisure. 

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13 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

That's why I like keeptradecut, it adjusts the points with a boost to the team giving the best individual players to prevent stacking a bunch of mediocre players for one good one.

ETA: Not that I use it as gospel or anything.  But it's a nice feature.

Agree with the others - never saw this site before but I really like it. Thanks.

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14 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

That's why I like keeptradecut, it adjusts the points with a boost to the team giving the best individual players to prevent stacking a bunch of mediocre players for one good one.

ETA: Not that I use it as gospel or anything.  But it's a nice feature.

Thank you FreeBaGeL also........I will use this in addition to my other 2 trade calculator sites.

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On 5/21/2021 at 9:03 AM, Dr. Octopus said:

I offered Mattison to the Cook owner for Irv Smith and was told to never make him another offer again since my offer was so insulting - I mean I get that Cook never gets hurt but I thought it was pretty fair value.

While I think Irv Smith is more valuable than Mattison is your offer is not so outrageous as to cause that kind of reaction.

If it were me I would just recognize you want Irv Smith and make a counter offer. I would ecstatic some actually wanted to give me something for a TE.

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On 5/21/2021 at 10:41 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

That's why I like keeptradecut, it adjusts the points with a boost to the team giving the best individual players to prevent stacking a bunch of mediocre players for one good one.

ETA: Not that I use it as gospel or anything.  But it's a nice feature.

I like it too. Just looking at recent rb rankings, I feel like the wisdom of the crowd does not like Miles Sanders (rb22) as much as I do.

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Stick to your guns. The fantasy world is over-flowing with alarmists. Sanders is valued low not on ability, but on fears of an RBBC and that Hurts won't make him a receiving force. Talent usually will out. He has bellcow skills. Whether this year or next, the passing situation should be showing production and his talent compared to his teammates evident.

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I had a real dhole owner in one of my superflex dynasty league offer me a 4th round rookie pick for Watson, and he laughed saying I was a fool for calling him a top 5 startup dynasty QB.....do others have people this clueless in their leagues?? :wall:

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2 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I had a real dhole owner in one of my superflex dynasty league offer me a 4th round rookie pick for Watson, and he laughed saying I was a fool for calling him a top 5 startup dynasty QB.....do others have people this clueless in their leagues?? :wall:

If you think Watson is a top 5 dynasty QB right now, you are definitely in the minority. Consider:

Maybe that other guy shouldn't have laughed or called you a fool over it, but he's not necessarily wrong.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

So I guess people are really buying into that Watson won't ever play again? I mean, even if he sits out an entire year, how is he suddenly not a top 5 QB in this league? I don't understand the fall....

If they’re still ranking him top 10 it doesn’t seem to indicated that they think he’s never going to play again. I’m sure his fall is risk driven, however. 


If we’re splitting hairs with some of these guys in the 6-12 range why not push down a guy that’s going to potentially miss a full season?

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43 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

So I guess people are really buying into that Watson won't ever play again? I mean, even if he sits out an entire year, how is he suddenly not a top 5 QB in this league? I don't understand the fall....

Just checked scoring in my two dynasty leagues. Here are Watson's season by season rankings in ppg:

  • 2020 - QB7
  • 2019 - QB3 in one league; QB4 in the other
  • 2018 - QB6
  • 2017 - QB1 (7 games)

So he has performed as a top 5 QB over a full season one time.

Watson was a rookie in 2017, the same year Mahomes was drafted, and Mahomes has clearly surpassed Watson. Since then, Allen, Jackson, Murray, and Herbert have been drafted, and all are generally ranked top 5 or close to it in most rankings, which seems reasonable. And Dak has emerged as a top 5 caliber QB during that period. And would it really surprise anyone if Lawrence and/or Burrow emerged as top 5 players?

It is a crowded field from which to identify the top 5 dynasty QBs, even without including Watson, any other veterans (e.g., Wilson), or any young players who could emerge (e.g., Fields, Lance, et al.). It should surprise no one that Watson is not being ranked top 5 or even top 10 in some cases given his off field situation.

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Thoughts on Chark vs Diontae Johnson?  I have DJ, have someone inquiring about him.

- DynastyTradeCalculator has Johnson valued about 20% bit higher  (18.3 vs 15.0)

- FBGs and KeepTradeCut have them almost dead-even; FBG has DJ higher, KTC has Chark 

- Same age, but Chark is bigger and has more years ahead with his QB. I love DJ but who knows what that passing game will look like post-Big Ben.

 

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18 minutes ago, heckmanm said:

Thoughts on Chark vs Diontae Johnson?  I have DJ, have someone inquiring about him.

- DynastyTradeCalculator has Johnson valued about 20% bit higher  (18.3 vs 15.0)

- FBGs and KeepTradeCut have them almost dead-even; FBG has DJ higher, KTC has Chark 

- Same age, but Chark is bigger and has more years ahead with his QB. I love DJ but who knows what that passing game will look like post-Big Ben.

 

I prefer Diontae myself. I think you are right to have post-Ben QB concerns but I'd hold off on assuming Chark has more then one year with Trevor.

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3 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

So I guess people are really buying into that Watson won't ever play again? I mean, even if he sits out an entire year, how is he suddenly not a top 5 QB in this league? I don't understand the fall....

Not me.

I think he's got a good chance to be cleared to play this year and for me he's still a top 5 QB if he's out the whole year, would be QB2 if I did not think he was going to miss some time with potential to miss the season. With the unknown around him I'd take Kyler, Lamar and Allen over him in addition to Mahomes who I take over him regardless. If not for the unknown of missed time and where he'll be playing again he'd be my QB2.

Over the last two seasons only he's the only QB to average 25 plus a game and what's really crazy is he's 8/10th of a point from doing it every season of his career. He's as elite as it gets.

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17 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I prefer Diontae myself. I think you are right to have post-Ben QB concerns but I'd hold off on assuming Chark has more then one year with Trevor.

Didn't realize Chark was a UFA after this year. Looks like Diontae has 2 years left on his deal.

My gut reaction was also to hang on to Diontae; I was surprised to see them ranked that closely.  My main concern with him is durability, as he got knocked out early in several games last year. Well, that and the 14 drops :eek:

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4 minutes ago, heckmanm said:

Didn't realize Chark was a UFA after this year. Looks like Diontae has 2 years left on his deal.

My gut reaction was also to hang on to Diontae; I was surprised to see them ranked that closely.  My main concern with him is durability, as he got knocked out early in several games last year. Well, that and the 14 drops :eek:

I can't argue the durability was an extreme negative early last year. He's not missed many games but early exits are far worse then just flat missing a game and his early exits were crushing. But really when you step back and look at it he was fairly healthy in 2019(even played through a hernia which required off-season surgery) and really just suffered a few minor miscues early last season and was healthy for second half of season. I don't think injuries were issue in college so right now I'm not ready to put durabilty concerns on him but understand why some would.

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2 hours ago, heckmanm said:

Thoughts on Chark vs Diontae Johnson?  I have DJ, have someone inquiring about him.

- DynastyTradeCalculator has Johnson valued about 20% bit higher  (18.3 vs 15.0)

- FBGs and KeepTradeCut have them almost dead-even; FBG has DJ higher, KTC has Chark 

- Same age, but Chark is bigger and has more years ahead with his QB. I love DJ but who knows what that passing game will look like post-Big Ben.

 

I like Chark's upside much better but I like DJ a lot and think he offers an impressive floor. 

I think people are sleeping on how big Chark could be in 2021 with what should be dramatically better QB play. Minshew played with a badly injured throwing thumb last year and was decent in 2019 for awhile before hitting a rookie wall. That was Chark's best year so far. The QB play has mostly been terrible and with even modest improvement the sky should he the limit for him this year. 

I read the tea leaves all wrong, though, with Meyer drafting ETN. Who knows if he will feature Chark in the passing game. All I know is that Chark always seemed open when I've watched, and had lots of balls that were wildly off target. I think there is a relatively decent chance he explodes. 

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

I can't argue the durability was an extreme negative early last year. He's not missed many games but early exits are far worse then just flat missing a game and his early exits were crushing. But really when you step back and look at it he was fairly healthy in 2019(even played through a hernia which required off-season surgery) and really just suffered a few minor miscues early last season and was healthy for second half of season. I don't think injuries were issue in college so right now I'm not ready to put durabilty concerns on him but understand why some would.

 

47 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I like Chark's upside much better but I like DJ a lot and think he offers an impressive floor. 

I think people are sleeping on how big Chark could be in 2021 with what should be dramatically better QB play. Minshew played with a badly injured throwing thumb last year and was decent in 2019 for awhile before hitting a rookie wall. That was Chark's best year so far. The QB play has mostly been terrible and with even modest improvement the sky should he the limit for him this year. 

I read the tea leaves all wrong, though, with Meyer drafting ETN. Who knows if he will feature Chark in the passing game. All I know is that Chark always seemed open when I've watched, and had lots of balls that were wildly off target. I think there is a relatively decent chance he explodes. 

So for DJ:

  • Small, fast, can take about anything to the endzone
  • Tons of targets; poor catch % due to lots of drops in 2020
  • Aging HOF QB, WR corps includes JuJu (for now) and Claypool

And for Chark:

  • Big, fast, maybe not as dynamic after the catch?
  • Lots of targets, poor catch % due to bad QB in 2020
  • Young QB (#1 overall but unproven), WR corps includes Marvin Jones and Shenault

Interesting, and much closer on balance than I was initially thinking.

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They only count catchable balls in "drops." That large number of drops was not due to bad QB play, but to, well ... drops. Even if Lawrence is a high quality QB, it will be surprising if he posts league average stats in year 1. I think Marvin Jones will be his security blanket with Shenault taking a far bigger bite and the coach intent on proving himself right by passing early and often to ETN.. I don't see Chark having the fortitude to re-group and take it to the next level. I hope he does, but that doesn't feel like his likely path to me.

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36 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

Javonte Williams or Diontae Johnson ppr, who you got

Williams and it's not close.  There are a lot of WR's that can fill Diontae's shoes on your team.  Williams has some shiny new toy brightness but with that comes hope and right now that hope is worth a lot more than a WR2/3-ish type guy

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I am trying to make my dad a fair trade offer in a dynasty league. It is not a family league and I do not want anyone to think collusion or similar. I have not ever made a trade with him in this league for years because of that.

However this year he wants my 1.14 pick, so i appreciate the help with this. It is an IDP league where you start 2 DE's, 3/4 Lbers, and 3/4 DB's. At a minimum 42 LBers are being started every week with very IDP friendly scoring.

Top Linebacker scored 360 points, LB 29 scored 212 points, LB 42 scored 180 points.

My dad is strong in DE, and week everywhere else. He needs a couple good drafts before he will compete. I won the league last year, but am week at DE.

 

My

1.14

2.14

3.09

Shaq Thompson LBer 29 in our scoring

 

His

Kenny Golladay

Joey Bosa

4.07

5.07

 

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6 minutes ago, MTskibum said:

I am trying to make my dad a fair trade offer in a dynasty league. It is not a family league and I do not want anyone to think collusion or similar. I have not ever made a trade with him in this league for years because of that.

However this year he wants my 1.14 pick, so i appreciate the help with this. It is an IDP league where you start 2 DE's, 3/4 Lbers, and 3/4 DB's. At a minimum 42 LBers are being started every week with very IDP friendly scoring.

Top Linebacker scored 360 points, LB 29 scored 212 points, LB 42 scored 180 points.

My dad is strong in DE, and week everywhere else. He needs a couple good drafts before he will compete. I won the league last year, but am week at DE.

 

My

1.14

2.14

3.09

Shaq Thompson LBer 29 in our scoring

 

His

Kenny Golladay

Joey Bosa

4.07

5.07

 

You aren't really offering much to get Joey Bosa unless he is only worth the 1.14. Based on the top linebacker scoring unless Shaq Thompson projects to score more this year.  I would assume Bosa had much more impact as DE.

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5 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

You aren't really offering much to get Joey Bosa unless he is only worth the 1.14. Based on the top linebacker scoring unless Shaq Thompson projects to score more this year.  I would assume Bosa had much more impact as DE.

 

Top DE's usually are chosen mid to late 2nd. My dad has Nick Bosa as well because he could not pass him up at 2.06. I figured Joey was a couple years older and would be worth less than that. 

But yes, my offer is probably light.

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12 minutes ago, MTskibum said:

 

Top DE's usually are chosen mid to late 2nd. My dad has Nick Bosa as well because he could not pass him up at 2.06. I figured Joey was a couple years older and would be worth less than that. 

But yes, my offer is probably light.

You would know IDPs better than me, especially for your league scoring systems.  Shaq didn't seem like giving much up at the LB position and if Bosa is only worth a mid 2nd you may be pretty close there.  

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