Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


spider321

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, RC94 said:

If you were doing a startup dynasty draft, how would you rank these players:

AJ Brown

Metcalf

Lamb

Chubb

Swift

Dobbins

I'm doing a startup tomorrow with people from these boards so I'll refrain from listing them out but will just say if this was FFPC standard I'd easily have Chubb last.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

AJB

DK

Chubb

Lamb

Swift 

Dobbins

Caveat- I'm a Chubb truther and think the Derrick Henry-like seasons are coming.

He'd need out of Cleveland (UFA after this season) to get that volume, but he's the best RB in the league. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

He'd need out of Cleveland (UFA after this season) to get that volume, but he's the best RB in the league. 

Yeah, he probably can't quite get Henry volume with Hunt there, but I expect the browns to be good and for Chubb to be closing out a lot of games with the lead this year. Plus, their schedule is very RB friendly (if you buy into that sort of thing carrying over). I think 20 touches a game is a decent bet.

Edited by jtd13
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Apple Juice said:

Drafting DK and AJB in the same draft is probably the greatest achievement of my life. 

I hope you are very young. But either way, there is still time to have a great achievement outside of fantasy football 🤣

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Apple Juice said:

Drafting DK and AJB in the same draft is probably the greatest achievement of my life. 

I’ve never come close to this kind of feat. :kicksrock:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, nittanylion said:

Do most of you play a Dynasty Format where you get to hold the Player as long as you like, or Dynasty that involves Contracts (Years, Salary Cap, or both)?

I'm in a ton of dynasty leagues that have multiple versions of these formats (contract/no contract/contract with salaries). I prefer no contract. I feel that player evaluation is much easier with no contracts. In the leagues I'm in that have contracts, when the contract expires, there's typically an offseason free agent auction, where it usually costs some league-specific currency to retain your best players. These leagues also have taxi squads where you can stash rookies for up to three seasons. My gripe with contract leagues is when you have, say, George Kittle on a 1-year deal (meaning he becomes a free agent after the season), and another guy has TJ Hockenson on a longer deal or on taxi squad (meaning he can be given as long a contract as the owner wants). In this example, owners will almost always want a discount because of Kittle's contract, while Hockenson carries a premium for having no contract. It's much easier for me to value Kittle against Hockenson with no contracts involved. 

Basically, contract leagues are for owners who love the minutiae of roster management and exploiting those rules for advantages.

Non-contract leagues are for owners who are newer to dynasty, aren't obsessive, or who manage a large number of teams in similar formats (i.e. FFPC). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

Yeah, he probably can't quite get Henry volume with Hunt there, but I expect the browns to be good and for Chubb to be closing out a lot of games with the lead this year. Plus, their schedule is very RB friendly (if you buy into that sort of thing carrying over). I think 20 touches a game is a decent bet.

I think 20's high, but I'm not worried about per game volume. He's a great bet for high yards per touch and at least a score every week. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Apple Juice said:

Drafting DK and AJB in the same draft is probably the greatest achievement of my life. 

I passed on both....for Darrel Henderson.  :gunshot: 

  • Laughing 1
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, facook said:

I passed on both....for Darrel Henderson.  :gunshot: 

 

10 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I passed on both...for N'Keal Harry. 

Hold my beer because I passed on both of them for both these guys. But then I took Metcalf at 1.06 and the guy that took AJ Brown at like 1.10 traded him to me for Harry and 2.02, where I took Singletary who returned value for me. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm really surprised at the Swift love here.   Gurley doesn't worry me, but Williams does, as does the general stink of the roster(not sold on the new coaching staff either, but it's not like they can be worse...).  When your te is your best wr then your rb will be seeing a lot of stacked boxes.  Detroit should be bad (forever) and bad teams generally don't support great run games.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

That 2019 draft was just wack like crack for fantasy purposes. We're supposed to be able to depend on "the professionals" to guide us on which players really are good, because, you know, draft position and all that.

It was after then that I decided I was going to take one person's counsel in all this - mine.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

That 2019 draft was just wack like crack for fantasy purposes. We're supposed to be able to depend on "the professionals" to guide us on which players really are good, because, you know, draft position and all that.

It was after then that I decided I was going to take one person's counsel in all this - mine.

I loathe all things group think. Welcome aboard! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MAC_32 said:

I loathe all things group think. Welcome aboard! 

I agree with this, and so do most others. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Laughing 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

I agree with the above posts about him having a wide range of values.  You're basically looking at what the owner wants for him. Ymmv

I'm only in one league (thanks for taking my bank account to the woodshed corona) and it's one I've been in for over a decade.  We've got a 5 year max contract, 50mil salary cap, 300k salary minimum, roster max/min of 35/30 with unlimited taxi squad of 3 years, full idp (q, rbrb, wrwrwr, te, flex(all non qb), k, dtdt, dede, lblb, cbcb, ss, Def flex).  16 teams in the league.

I really don't like this question because sitting here I know logically those wrs are all going to be better than those rb for longer.  But position scarcity and group think would make me put the rbs higher if I were actually going to be drafting right now.  So in a vacuum it would be something like all the wrs in one teir then Dobbins small break cubb big break swift. In reality I would probably pick Dobbins first and have chubb somewhere in the middle of the wr grouping, with swift still last.  Never trust a Detroit rb.

While it has been a long drought of good RB in Detroit for a long time, since Barry Sanders really, I think they have a very good one now with Swift. New coaching staff, I'm willing to put that concern aside now. If the Lions had kept Patricia then I would be less optimistic.

I consider Dobbins and Swift to be tier one talents at the RB position. The tie breaker for me between them is that Swift is one year younger than Dobbins and I also think there is more entrenched RBBC in Baltimore compared to Detriot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Apple Juice said:

Drafting DK and AJB in the same draft is probably the greatest achievement of my life. 

I had Brown, got Lamb, Swift and Dobbins last year, tremendous young nucleus 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, tangfoot said:
13 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

I loathe all things group think. Welcome aboard! 

I agree with this, and so do most others. 

 

12 hours ago, DropKick said:
12 hours ago, tangfoot said:

I agree with this, and so do most others. 

Probably one of the few things we can unanimously agree on.

 

So groupthink is to not like groupthink... so we should like groupthink? :confused: 

  • Thinking 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

That 2019 draft was just wack like crack for fantasy purposes. We're supposed to be able to depend on "the professionals" to guide us on which players really are good, because, you know, draft position and all that.

It was after then that I decided I was going to take one person's counsel in all this - mine.

Remember when almost everyone had Cordarralle Patterson as the best WR of that draft class?

They dont know half as much as they think they do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

File away some names from the later rounds, may find a gem or two as things unfold.

Go to the link for the read.

1 Rookie to Keep an Eye on for Every NFL Team Coming Out of OTAs

... None of the following rookies heard their names called in the first round or even became their respective teams' initial selections, yet all of them should come out of organized team activities as potential long-term pieces of the puzzle for the 2021 campaign and beyond.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

While it has been a long drought of good RB in Detroit for a long time, since Barry Sanders really, I think they have a very good one now with Swift. New coaching staff, I'm willing to put that concern aside now. If the Lions had kept Patricia then I would be less optimistic.

I consider Dobbins and Swift to be tier one talents at the RB position. The tie breaker for me between them is that Swift is one year younger than Dobbins and I also think there is more entrenched RBBC in Baltimore compared to Detriot.

Det has invested a lot of capital in the rb in the first two rounds since Barry Sanders. Kerryon Johnson (rnd 2, 2018), Ameer Abdullah (rnd 2, 2015), Mike Leshoure (rnd 2, 2011), Javid Best (rnd 1 2010)... And so on.  In that time their best draft pick at rb was Theo Riddick, round 6 2013.

I know, I know different coaching staffs, different front offices.  Swift might be different and there's a new qb to go along with the new front office.  But that team doesn't look better overall and the new coaching staff looks like they're not interested in force feeding swift the ball.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

Surely you are aware of Anthony Lynns track record and he is their offensive coordinator. I don't really care about the coach speak here I know what he has done with RB in the past and I see this as very favorable for Swift in 2021.

As far as the Lions failure to secure a good RB despite some highish picks invested in them does not mean that Swift is not head and shoulders a better player than any of those guys were.

I am mostly betting on the player here over the history coaches or scheme. To put more of a point on that I think Swift is similarly talented as Dalvin Cook and he might have a very very productive season in 2021.

eta - As some of you know I am a Vikings fan. So its a somewhat painful admission by me to say that Swift may be almost as good as Dalvin Cook.

Edited by Biabreakable
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Surely you are aware of Anthony Lynns track record and he is their offensive coordinator. I don't really care about the coach speak here I know what he has done with RB in the past and I see this as very favorable for Swift in 2021.

As far as the Lions failure to secure a good RB despite some highish picks invested in them does not mean that Swift is not head and shoulders a better player than any of those guys were.

I am mostly betting on the player here over the history coaches or scheme. To put more of a point on that I think Swift is similarly talented as Dalvin Cook and he might have a very very productive season in 2021.

eta - As some of you know I am a Vikings fan. So its a somewhat painful admission by me to say that Swift may be almost as good as Dalvin Cook.

During his three years with Lynn as his hc Melvin Gordon went over 1000 yards rushing once.  Yes Lynn slammed him into the line repeatedly despite Gordon's atrocious ypc so I can appreciate the idea of putting a more skilled player in Swift in the same position and expecting better results.  Det could have a sneaky good oline this season which is something the chargers never had as well, but the chargers always had a defense that was at least solid.  The lions might be the worst in the league if not for Houston.  Will Lynn still be calling rb dives when the score is 28-3 in the third?  Add to that Lynn began to embrace the rbbc with eckler, and I'm not convinced Swift is set up to be on the field during all the "come back" attempts detroit will be making this season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well it's interesting you bring up Gordon and dive plays. I would agree that when I watched the Chargers back then, that there was too much of that.

What is more intriguing to me about those teams is how he used Austin Eckler and what that may mean as far as Swifts opportunity as a receiver.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Well it's interesting you bring up Gordon and dive plays. I would agree that when I watched the Chargers back then, that there was too much of that.

What is more intriguing to me about those teams is how he used Austin Eckler and what that may mean as far as Swifts opportunity as a receiver.

I agree that Swift in an eckler role would be a great fit, but that's where the signing of Williams concerns me.  He's been sure handed the past two years catching 39 of 45 targets in 2019 and 31 of 35 targets in 2020, and I can imagine the coaching staff thinking they can galaxy brain the rest of the league by trying to stuff two round pegs into a square hole.   I'm not inspired by Campbell or Lynn, and think that Campbell's hire was more about washing the Fat Pat stink out of the building by hiring a "players coach" than hiring the guy who can make the team superbowl worthy.

 

Edit - I do want to add that I like Duce as the rb coach.  Mostly because I was a fan of him as a player but I see him as an up and comer.

Edited by wgoldsph
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

RB Mike Davis. I have a win now team and to have him as my flex would be great in my eyes, or as my RB3 in case of injury. Anyone know where to value him knowing he could be great this year but possibly replaced after that?

If I was an owner, regardless of my roster - I would want a 2022 1st or 2021 2nd round pick for him.  It really is roster dependent for what the guy is holding or holes in the roster.  If there are positional holes and you have an abudance of WR, maybe an Odell Beckham, Curtis Samuel tier player?  I am staying clear of Mike Davis because I think his asking price is likely too high and the uncertainty for next year, because I am not one to rent a player.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Interested in possibly acquiring RB Mike Davis. I have a win now team and to have him as my flex would be great in my eyes, or as my RB3 in case of injury. Anyone know where to value him knowing he could be great this year but possibly replaced after that?

Probably depends mostly on how competitive  the team is that currently rosters him. I was able to get him about a month ago for the 3.07 and a 2022 3rd. This was right after the NFL draft. The team that I acquired him from is one of the two worst teams in the league, so I was able to remind him that Mike Davis isn’t going to be doing him any good this season or next. I would think most people are going to want at least a 2nd for him, though. I would probably pay that if I were win now, because I think he has a good shot at finishing Top-15 this year. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mike Evans - price check. 10 team/PPR

I have A. Rob, Diontae Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Brown, Jerry Jeudy and Michael Pittman (only guys worth naming).

Looking at pairing him with one of my RB's I don't want (they're unappealing) for literally anything of value.  

RB's Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, Kenyan Drake

I have the 2.2 and - any idea of a player or pick range I can land for him?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Depending how much the current owner likes Evans, you may be able to get him for Jeudy/2.2

Diontae/2.2 maybe.

AJBrown for Evans+

None of the other guys you mentioned are worth consideration.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Interested in possibly acquiring RB Mike Davis. I have a win now team and to have him as my flex would be great in my eyes, or as my RB3 in case of injury. Anyone know where to value him knowing he could be great this year but possibly replaced after that?

I moved him for the 2.12 in this years draft before the NFL Draft. I am happy with the deal (I took Chuba with the pick). He should see volume this year and is a nice depth piece for a contending team.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TVT 0 N S T A said:

If I was an owner, regardless of my roster - I would want a 2022 1st or 2021 2nd round pick for him.  It really is roster dependent for what the guy is holding or holes in the roster.  If there are positional holes and you have an abudance of WR, maybe an Odell Beckham, Curtis Samuel tier player?  I am staying clear of Mike Davis because I think his asking price is likely too high and the uncertainty for next year, because I am not one to rent a player.  

The difference in price between Beckham and Samuel is huge imo.  Samuel is an end of the roster guy and Beckham is in the wr 2/3 range with potential to have a "FU" bounce back year.

On that note, I agree with you on your overall impression of Mike Davis, too high and asking price for me on a one year rental that won't dramatically increase my odds of winning a league.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TVT 0 N S T A said:

Mike Evans - price check. 10 team/PPR

I have A. Rob, Diontae Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Brown, Jerry Jeudy and Michael Pittman (only guys worth naming).

Looking at pairing him with one of my RB's I don't want (they're unappealing) for literally anything of value.  

RB's Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, Kenyan Drake

I have the 2.2 and - any idea of a player or pick range I can land for him?

I'm confused, are you trying to pick up Evans?  You seem set at wr and need to be aiming for rb.  Or do you have Evans and want to pair him with one of your rbs to get something back?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, wgoldsph said:

The difference in price between Beckham and Samuel is huge imo.  Samuel is an end of the roster guy and Beckham is in the wr 2/3 range with potential to have a "FU" bounce back year.

On that note, I agree with you on your overall impression of Mike Davis, too high and asking price for me on a one year rental that won't dramatically increase my odds of winning a league.

Not that this matters much but his contract makes him more of a potential two year rental provided he performs decently.   He got $5.5M with $3M of that guaranteed.  $2.5M is not a lot for a starting RB which is what he’d be getting in his second year provided he performs this year. 
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

Not that this matters much but his contract makes him more of a potential two year rental provided he performs decently.   He got $5.5M with $3M of that guaranteed.  $2.5M is not a lot for a starting RB which is what he’d be getting in his second year provided he performs this year. 
 

This is his first year officially being a starter at the age of 28.  He's playing for a team that just threw in the towel on the season.  He's had one season where his ypc was over 4, despite working as a backup where those numbers get inflated by the defense not expecting runs.

He'll get volume but there's nothing stopping atl from replacing him next year with a late pick or a udfa.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, wgoldsph said:

This is his first year officially being a starter at the age of 28.  He's playing for a team that just threw in the towel on the season.  He's had one season where his ypc was over 4, despite working as a backup where those numbers get inflated by the defense not expecting runs.

He'll get volume but there's nothing stopping atl from replacing him next year with a late pick or a udfa.

I don’t disagree that could be a possibility but if that’s an option then why didn’t Atl do that this year and give him some competition?   I think people on this board put too much stock in late round draft picks and UDFAs. Sure, occasionally they “hit” but let’s be honest.  How often is that?  At least Davis has proven he belongs in the league. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

I don’t disagree that could be a possibility but if that’s an option then why didn’t Atl do that this year and give him some competition?   I think people on this board put too much stock in late round draft picks and UDFAs. Sure, occasionally they “hit” but let’s be honest.  How often is that?  At least Davis has proven he belongs in the league. 

Until they traded Julio Atl didn't even have the cap space to sign their rookie class. Doubt they could attract any quality competition.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Interested in possibly acquiring RB Mike Davis. I have a win now team and to have him as my flex would be great in my eyes, or as my RB3 in case of injury. Anyone know where to value him knowing he could be great this year but possibly replaced after that?

I see Davis in that magical land of untradeable because his owner will want more than a guy trying to pick him up on the cheap is willing to pay.  He is worth more to have on a team than it is to get a pick that isn't impactful. 

 

Now if you happen to have a league situation where the guy that has him is in total rebuild and is punting on the season then you have a chance for future pick(s) but if I was in that situation I would wait until his first couple weeks when he hogs all the touches and a contender may overpay for him.  I know that doesn't help you in trying to acquire him but it gives an idea of what an owner that has him may be thinking.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

This is his first year officially being a starter at the age of 28.  He's playing for a team that just threw in the towel on the season.  He's had one season where his ypc was over 4, despite working as a backup where those numbers get inflated by the defense not expecting runs.

He'll get volume but there's nothing stopping atl from replacing him next year with a late pick or a udfa.

Regarding the bolded above, I'm not sure that's entirely the case. Among other things, you don't sign a back like Mike Davis to a deal like that if you're throwing in the towel. It just doesn't make sense.

When it comes to Arthur Smith, I'm very interested in seeing what he does with the pieces he's inherited. I'd like to be a believer, but at this point, I'm at least cautiously optimistic. Very intriguing to me that this deal went down between the Falcons/Titans. I think Ryan is still better than Tannehill. As good as DHenry is, the scheme and system can work for Davis if they have the right blocking personnel, to give you poor man's Henry #'s...but the bigger point is, with the right blocking personnel, the run game can put enough pressure on, to give the passing game room to operate.  If you were to give me Ryan+Ridley/Gage/Pitts/Hurst vs Tannehill+AJB/CDavis/Humpries/Jonnu, I think it's closer than one might think. Both Defenses aren't anything to be proud of, yet the Titans made the Playoffs last year, and the NFC, I think, is the weaker Conference. No, the Falcons aren't challenging TB for the NFCS, but they're as much in the mix for a WC berth as any # of NFC second and third-tier Teams. Just my IMHO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

The difference in price between Beckham and Samuel is huge imo.  Samuel is an end of the roster guy and Beckham is in the wr 2/3 range with potential to have a "FU" bounce back year.

On that note, I agree with you on your overall impression of Mike Davis, too high and asking price for me on a one year rental that won't dramatically increase my odds of winning a league.

Strongly disagree. And this is coming from someone who just picked Beckham in a startup (WR35), so it isn't like it's because I'm low on him. Curtis went WR45 and the only player I had higher on my board at that time was Fuller who I selected 4 picks later.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Strongly disagree. And this is coming from someone who just picked Beckham in a startup (WR35), so it isn't like it's because I'm low on him. Curtis went WR45 and the only player I had higher on my board at that time was Fuller who I selected 4 picks later.

I think the main difference is upside. I don’t believe Samuel has the upside of a WR1.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, King of the Jungle said:

I think the main difference is upside. I don’t believe Samuel has the upside of a WR1.

I agree, but Beckham also has 3+ years on him and that hasn't produced a good season in a half decade thing.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
  • Create New...