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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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10 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

I'm confused, are you trying to pick up Evans?  You seem set at wr and need to be aiming for rb.  Or do you have Evans and want to pair him with one of your rbs to get something back?

Sorry, trying to pair Evans and one of my RBs for literally anything.  Also, potentially including 2.2.  This thread is tough to navigate because of roster breakdown, etc.  

I guess I'm just looking at players or a 1st round pick I could target for Evans, because I think his stock can't get any higher and have enough depth to supplement his absence.  

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6 minutes ago, rockaction said:

But would you take the 1.04 for him?

I probably wouldn't.

I think it would depend on my evaluation of Etienne and how bad I needed a RB.   I’d probably take the risk on Etienne though. 

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14 hours ago, Blick said:

I think it would depend on my evaluation of Etienne and how bad I needed a RB.   I’d probably take the risk on Etienne though. 

Etienne is on my DND list.   Any time someone meantions "Percy Harvin" as a comp for a running back it sends up a ton of red flags.  Add in the presence of Robinson and Meyer and that's a backfield I want no part of.

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12 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Etienne is on my DND list.   Any time someone meantions "Percy Harvin" as a comp for a running back it sends up a ton of red flags.  Add in the presence of Robinson and Meyer and that's a backfield I want no part of.

If you use Etienne like Harvin it's a good thing because he's way better than Harvin.

Anyway, that comparison is being given way too much weight. I think Urban just meant you get Etienne the ball in space a LOT - which I expect they'll do.

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4 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

If you use Etienne like Harvin it's a good thing because he's way better than Harvin.

Anyway, that comparison is being given way too much weight. I think Urban just meant you get Etienne the ball in space a LOT - which I expect they'll do.

Harvin could have been amazing, but he never played a single healthy season.

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How would you rank the following players for trade value in a typical dynasty league ... Evans, Moore, Cooper, Miles Sanders, Waddle, Chase, Sutton, M, Thomas and DeVonta Smith?

I have them all fairly close but with some obvious tier breaks. Wondering if my valuation is off, especially with the rookies. 

I have Moore, Cooper, Sanders and Thomas all in a group together. Evans and Chase in a tier above and Smith, Waddle and Sutton a tier or two below.

Edited by Atomic Punk
Added personal ranking.
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2 hours ago, Atomic Punk said:

How would you rank the following players for trade value in a typical dynasty league ... Evans, Moore, Cooper, Miles Sanders, Waddle, Chase, Sutton, M, Thomas and DeVonta Smith?

I have them all fairly close but with some obvious tier breaks. Wondering if my valuation is off, especially with the rookies. 

I have Moore, Cooper, Sanders and Thomas all in a group together. Evans and Chase in a tier above and Smith, Waddle and Sutton a tier or two below.

Just my thoughts in general (from bottom to top, with exception of d Smith) -

I'm of the opinion that Sanders fantasy value is about to crater.  The new coaches look like they want to install a rbbc and they don't seem to like Sanders. Also, the eagles should still suck this year.  Basically, he's last on my list.  The eagles stink depresses Smith's value, but I'm a believer in the individual talent and like him when the team gets things sorted out.

Sam Darnold is a bad QB.  Moore is a player that will be effected by qb play until next season. 

Tua... I want to believe in Tua.  But he keeps doing his best to give me doubts. Was never a big waddle fan anyway. 

Sutton is coming off an injury and plays with two nobodies at qb.  He does have value packed in at his reduced price.  Another guy for another year.

Thomas is hard to rank.  He's better if Hill's the starting qb (at least in ppr) as hill looked his way more than Brees did during his record breaking year. I'm also probably the biggest Jamis hater, so there's that.  All that being say NO could have a totally different qb next year if neither of them work.

Chase is great.  Burrow is a great qb.  That offense should throw a ton.  The coaches are abismal and you have to ask if a rookie coming off the covid season will have the same kind of Jefferson year we were spoiled by last season.

That leaves us with Cooper and Evans.  Cooper will give you 80/1100/6 give or take.  Evans will give you 70/1000/8 give or take.  Do you want extra catches/yards or extra tds.  Either way they're the top two if you're playing it safe for this season.

Edited by wgoldsph
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It is an interesting group of players, that’s for certain. I agree with most of the points but I am not as down on Sanders. He worries me but not to the extent that you laid out.

Those two rookie smurfs also make me nervous but their upside has to be greater than Sutton but their QB situation isn’t that much better.

That leaves Moore and Cooper. One inheriting Darnold and the other an underrated steady Eddy type.

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10 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

If you use Etienne like Harvin it's a good thing because he's way better than Harvin.

Percy was a stud he just couldn't stay healthy.

He finished as WR6 overall in 2011 (his 3rd year ) with 87 catches, 1300 total yards, 8 TDs.  Then he was the overall WR1 half way through the next season with 62 catches, 800 yards, and 4 TDs at the season's half way point before picking up a bad injury followed by another bad injury and with the migraines on top of it all basically never being able to play for real again.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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7 hours ago, Atomic Punk said:

How would you rank the following players for trade value in a typical dynasty league ... Evans, Moore, Cooper, Miles Sanders, Waddle, Chase, Sutton, M, Thomas and DeVonta Smith?

I have them all fairly close but with some obvious tier breaks. Wondering if my valuation is off, especially with the rookies. 

I have Moore, Cooper, Sanders and Thomas all in a group together. Evans and Chase in a tier above and Smith, Waddle and Sutton a tier or two below.

There are too many Moores for me to be sure which one you are talking about here.

I am guessing DJ Moore based on wgoldsph response.

I think a lot depends on your personal goals as GM of your team. Looking at the big picture the quality of years remaining on these players careers is going to favor the younger players even though established vets, especially at the WR position are going to be the players worth starting right now.

Personally I am on the fence as far as Chase or Smith being the best WR of the 2021 draft class. I do like Burrow and the Bengals offense for passing volume much better than Jalen Hurts or I am not sure who will be throwing it to Smith. That as well as draft position breaks the tie and I would rather have Chase.

There is a lot of unknown for Michael Thomas without Brees. I am not sure how to value him right now. I am just staying away. He has been a top player before though and that is hard to ignore.

Anyhow I guess I would rank them like this

Chase

Cooper

Evans

Thomas

Smith

DJ Moore

Sanders

Sutton

Waddle

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Waddle might be the best value in rookie drafts. He’s constantly going in the end of the 1st,  beginning of the 2nd (Superflex). I can’t remember a top 10 WR with his athletic skills going that late. Give me all the shares!

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9 hours ago, Atomic Punk said:

How would you rank the following players for trade value in a typical dynasty league ... Evans, Moore, Cooper, Miles Sanders, Waddle, Chase, Sutton, M, Thomas and DeVonta Smith?

I have them all fairly close but with some obvious tier breaks. Wondering if my valuation is off, especially with the rookies. 

I have Moore, Cooper, Sanders and Thomas all in a group together. Evans and Chase in a tier above and Smith, Waddle and Sutton a tier or two below.

Chase

DJ Moore
M Thomas

Waddle
Cooper
Devonta
Miles Sanders
Evans
Sutton

 

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Just curious, what would it take for you to give up CMAC or Kamara? To keep it simple just assume a package of draft picks. Obviously it depends on the current strength of your roster and if you are pretty strong overall or looking for an infusion of youth.

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2 hours ago, cap'n grunge said:

Just curious, what would it take for you to give up CMAC or Kamara? To keep it simple just assume a package of draft picks. Obviously it depends on the current strength of your roster and if you are pretty strong overall or looking for an infusion of youth.

I would say you need to offer something that is as valuable as one of those players plus something.

So that means more than two 1st round picks I think or it means a top 12 player plus a 1st and likely something else.

If I had CMC but not much else I might try to trade him for 3 1st round picks or something equivalent to that. If my team is good without CMC then you likely could not offer enough for me to move him.

Similarly for Dalvin Cook.

If someone offered me Swift and AJ Brown or something like that though I would certainly think about it.

eta - on the flip side of that I am not trying to buy these players or any players when they are at their peak values.

Edited by Biabreakable
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2 hours ago, cap'n grunge said:

Just curious, what would it take for you to give up CMAC or Kamara? To keep it simple just assume a package of draft picks. Obviously it depends on the current strength of your roster and if you are pretty strong overall or looking for an infusion of youth.

I think Kamara is worth approximately the 1.01 or 1.02 pick this year.  I've seen Harris get drafted ahead of Kamara in some dynasty startup drafts recently.

McCaffrey is worth substantially more than Kamara IMO.  It would take at least 2 1st round picks depending on when the picks are.  This year there's a top 5, although it seems like there's a bit of a drop after the top 3 (Harris, Pitts and Chase).  2 of the top 3 picks should be enough.  If it's not enough, I would probably walk away from trying to get McCaffrey.  If it's not top 3 picks, I don't know if there's a package of picks that will work, but it will probably take 3 1st round picks and maybe a good player too.

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3 hours ago, cap'n grunge said:

Just curious, what would it take for you to give up CMAC or Kamara? To keep it simple just assume a package of draft picks. Obviously it depends on the current strength of your roster and if you are pretty strong overall or looking for an infusion of youth.

Before Barkley’s injury last year, I traded him for Akers, Reagor, 2021 1st, and 2022 1st. I would assume CMC would fetch a similar package.

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On 6/15/2021 at 10:18 PM, wgoldsph said:

Can I get a price check (draft pick wise) for Chris Godwin?

In my dynasty leagues I've shopped him a few places that I was stacked at WR and needed a RB and NO ONE seems to value him. I just don't understand why. But I won't move at a fire sale price. Its odd...to people think he won't be better with Brady after a full year together? 

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5 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

In my dynasty leagues I've shopped him a few places that I was stacked at WR and needed a RB and NO ONE seems to value him. I just don't understand why. But I won't move at a fire sale price. Its odd...to people think he won't be better with Brady after a full year together? 

I don't own him anywhere, but he seems like a hold right now. I think the owner values him more than others are willing to pay.

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10 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

I don't own him anywhere, but he seems like a hold right now. I think the owner values him more than others are willing to pay.

The entire Tampa offense is that way - Evans, Godwin, Brown and the RB's have limited value until things play out.  I think a lot of people are questioning TB12 - age, etc.  Also, they have a lot of mouths to feed.  Trying to unload Evans and can't find any suitors.  

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23 minutes ago, TVT 0 N S T A said:

The entire Tampa offense is that way - Evans, Godwin, Brown and the RB's have limited value until things play out.  I think a lot of people are questioning TB12 - age, etc.  Also, they have a lot of mouths to feed.  Trying to unload Evans and can't find any suitors.  

I think it's this mostly as well as the injuries and that people are either worried about or using as an excuse not to pay up.

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8 hours ago, dipandglide said:

Waddle might be the best value in rookie drafts. He’s constantly going in the end of the 1st,  beginning of the 2nd (Superflex). I can’t remember a top 10 WR with his athletic skills going that late. Give me all the shares!

I think this has happened quite a few times, almost always with similarly undersized speedy guys like Waddle.  Not all of the guys below were top 10 (though some were) but they were all drafted very early in the NFL draft and much later in rookie drafts than that NFL draft position would  normally dictate.

Ted Ginn
Henry Ruggs
Will Fuller
Troy Williamson
Derryius Heyward Bey

I know the narrative is that Waddle is different but that was the narrative around Ruggs last year as well.

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14 team league, can I offer the following trade or is it bad one way?

Offer up

Kyler Murray

1st round 2022 rookie

For

Russel Wilson

Courtland Sutton

 

 

Edited by MTskibum
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4 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Anyone see James Robinson traded? or any idea his value these days? Looking to acquire.

I own him and I have no idea what to do. A mid first and I click accept in a heartbeat.  If someone offered a mid-late 2nd I would decline. I would value him late 1/early 2.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, MTskibum said:

14 team league, can I offer the following trade or is it bad one way?

Offer up

Kyler Murray

1st round 2022 rookie

For

Russel Wilson

Courtland Sutton

 

 

I actually prefer Murray and the pick (especially if its mid to early)  but someone who's win now would happily take Wilson and Sutton. 

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28 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Anyone see James Robinson traded? or any idea his value these days? Looking to acquire.

No he won't get traded now.  He's not being a malcontent or exhibiting a bad attitude about the ETN addition so nothing he would appear to be asking for at this time(and I checked on this with a Jags beat writer who told me he never talks, he's the Khwai Leonard of the team and if he was ever unhappy you'd never know it anyway).  If think if you are Urban it sends a bad message when building a culture to "throw away" a UDFA who illustrated the benefits of coming in an competing.

Maybe in-season if ETN is playing great and someone makes a strong offer for Robinson but I don't think they will be actively shopping him this year.  Hard to read to much into the future. Same Jags beat writer who filled me in on his mindset thinks it's a 50/50 job with Robinson and ETN. If he becomes less then that, ETN becomes to dynamic to take off the field or Urban just does not think his lack of big time speed is just not a fit then I guess it becomes more possible next off-season. But I don't think anyone in Jax or Robinson right now is thinking in these kind of terms right now, of  eventually moving him.

What's his value? I took him in round 7 of an on-going startup(with people from this board) and that's about his range in redraft and personally I like that dynasty investment more then redraft. At the end of the day I think he's a very good RB and at that point of a draft just betting on talent with a young player is something I can get behind. As for redraft I view him as a low ceiling(with everyone healthy) low end RB2.

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1 minute ago, menobrown said:

No he won't get traded now.  He's not being a malcontent or exhibiting a bad attitude about the ETN addition so nothing he would appear to be asking for at this time(and I checked on this with a Jags beat writer who told me he never talks, he's the Khwai Leonard of the team and if he was ever unhappy you'd never know it anyway).  If think if you are Urban it sends a bad message when building a culture to "throw away" a UDFA who illustrated the benefits of coming in an competing.

Maybe in-season if ETN is playing great and someone makes a strong offer for Robinson but I don't think they will be actively shopping him this year.  Hard to read to much into the future. Same Jags beat writer who filled me in on his mindset thinks it's a 50/50 job with Robinson and ETN. If he becomes less then that, ETN becomes to dynamic to take off the field or Urban just does not think his lack of big time speed is just not a fit then I guess it becomes more possible next off-season. But I don't think anyone in Jax or Robinson right now is thinking in these kind of terms right now, of  eventually moving him.

What's his value? I took him in round 7 of an on-going startup(with people from this board) and that's about his range in redraft and personally I like that dynasty investment more then redraft. At the end of the day I think he's a very good RB and at that point of a draft just betting on talent with a young player is something I can get behind. As for redraft I view him as a low ceiling(with everyone healthy) low end RB2.

I meant in terms of Fantasy Football, asking if anyone has seen him traded in any of their leagues. Jacksonville isn't trading him.

Thanks for your response!

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42 minutes ago, MTskibum said:

I own him and I have no idea what to do. A mid first and I click accept in a heartbeat.  If someone offered a mid-late 2nd I would decline. I would value him late 1/early 2.

That's crazy talk.  He's worth a mid/late 2nd at best to most people.

Hindrey's value chart has him at RB27, roughly equivalent to Michael Carter (Rookie #18).  I traded him shortly after the NFL draft straight up for Darnell Mooney and felt like I pulled one over on the guy.  We'll see who is laughing in November, I guess.

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2 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

I meant in terms of Fantasy Football, asking if anyone has seen him traded in any of their leagues. Jacksonville isn't trading him.

Thanks for your response!

Duh.

I have not seen him traded but if we used startup value as a guide he's coming in somewhere around that 10-15 type mark relative to other rookies. I think current Robinson owners can't come to grips with giving him up cheap right now and hoping for the best but no one really wants to pay much for him right now either. Makes for a slow market.

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10 minutes ago, menobrown said:

What's his value? I took him in round 7 of an on-going startup(with people from this board) and that's about his range in redraft and personally I like that dynasty investment more then redraft. At the end of the day I think he's a very good RB and at that point of a draft just betting on talent with a young player is something I can get behind. As for redraft I view him as a low ceiling(with everyone healthy) low end RB2.

He went 90th overall in my recent SF startup.  Right around the same spot as Rookie #14.

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3 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

I actually prefer Murray and the pick (especially if its mid to early)  but someone who's win now would happily take Wilson and Sutton. 

 

3 hours ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

I think if I'm win now (and have WR depth) I'd take the Murray/pick side.

I am in win now and I need a wr.

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54 minutes ago, MTskibum said:

 

I am in win now and I need a wr.

I've said it above, Sutton isn't a player for this year unless you get him at a discount.  A 2022 first (if we're calling Wilson and Murray a wash, which I'd argue Murray has the upside both now and in the future) is worth more to me than Sutton, meaning you're not even getting his discounted price.

If it were Murray and a 2022 3rd for Wilson and Sutton I'd call it equal.  All in all though, my win-now teams are looking for a player not coming off a lower leg injury with Lock or Bridgewater throwing the ball to him. Especially if I'm giving up Murray.

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7 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think this has happened quite a few times, almost always with similarly undersized speedy guys like Waddle.  Not all of the guys below were top 10 (though some were) but they were all drafted very early in the NFL draft and much later in rookie drafts than that NFL draft position would  normally dictate.

Ted Ginn
Henry Ruggs
Will Fuller
Troy Williamson
Derryius Heyward Bey

I know the narrative is that Waddle is different but that was the narrative around Ruggs last year as well.

That narrative seems lazy. Plus, Fuller has done well when he's played. And the jury is still out on Ruggs. I think Waddle is more talented than all these guys and has done special things when playing. But he needs to prove he can stay healthy of course. TBD

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13 hours ago, dipandglide said:

That narrative seems lazy. Plus, Fuller has done well when he's played. And the jury is still out on Ruggs. I think Waddle is more talented than all these guys and has done special things when playing. But he needs to prove he can stay healthy of course. TBD

I think it's more a reflection of the consensus on Tua. I know situations can change quickly, but there's a lot of evidence out there that Tua just may not be effective enough at the NFL level to support a high flying offense.

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22 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think it's more a reflection of the consensus on Tua. I know situations can change quickly, but there's a lot of evidence out there that Tua just may not be effective enough at the NFL level to support a high flying offense.

Such as?

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

His size, his lack of arm strength, reports he never mastered the playbook, the eye test....

Eye test is really the only evidence of "effectiveness", everything else is your subjective opinion.  If you didn't like him as a prospect, then his performance last year while essentially still rehabbing did nothing to change your mind.  And that's fine.

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6 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Eye test is really the only evidence of "effectiveness", everything else is your subjective opinion.  If you didn't like him as a prospect, then his performance last year while essentially still rehabbing did nothing to change your mind.  And that's fine.

I pointed out a reason why Waddle is dropping in rookie drafts. What do you think the general consensus of Tua is?

His frail looking frame and lack of arm strength doesn't affect performance?

Reports that he wasn't able to master the playbook is subjective? That's an odd stance.

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I pointed out a reason why Waddle is dropping in rookie drafts. What do you think the general consensus of Tua is?

His frail looking frame and lack of arm strength doesn't affect performance?

Reports that he wasn't able to master the playbook is subjective? That's an odd stance.

I don't think Waddle is dropping because of Tua, Full Stop.

Frail looking frame is subjective, yes.  His arm strength is below average for NFL studs, but he's not Phil Neikro out there throwing knuckleballs because his arm is a noodle.

Quote

Brian Flores on Tua saying he didn’t know the play book really, really well in 2020: “He’s comparing last year to where he is right now. I get it.”

https://twitter.com/schadjoe/status/1400801675963731971?s=20

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23 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

 

Reports that he wasn't able to master the playbook is subjective? That's an odd stance.

We're in the middle of hyperventilating season, aren't we?...

Tom Brady said essentially the same thing.

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Color me as giving Tua some space because Twitter told me so. The pre-camp hype for him was trending upward until he threw five picks yesterday or the day before.

We'll know more as the season progresses. How's that?

Waddle might be dropping in rookie drafts because that same Twitter has been pointing out his statistical deficiencies while at Alabama. Take the substantive element of that argument as you will, but I'm seeing an awful lot of Waddle detractors recently. I'm just positing a reason why he might be dropping.

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34 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I don't think Waddle is dropping because of Tua, Full Stop.

Frail looking frame is subjective, yes.  His arm strength is below average for NFL studs, but he's not Phil Neikro out there throwing knuckleballs because his arm is a noodle.

https://twitter.com/schadjoe/status/1400801675963731971?s=20

What do you think the general consensus is on Tua? Why do you think Waddle is going late first in one of the weaker rookie drafts in a while?

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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