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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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45 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

😂😂. You think Higgins wouldn’t even fetch Stafford. It is time for you to get off the trade calculator. 
In a 1 QB league Higgins would fetch Stafford plus 2 1sts. 

I dunno...the Higgins owner in my league isn’t that high on him. Makes me think I should target him then.

Regardless, I was speaking purely to value. Dude asked for a value check, I checked the calc. I’m not saying I’d take Stafford for Higgins if I had Higgins. :shrug: 
 

also there’s no way in hell anyone pays 2x firsts and Stafford for Higgins.

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Superflex, PPR. Reposted for clarity (player names confused some) 
 

Would you consider a downgrade from Mahomes to Goff for 

1. Goff+ Debo, Davonte Adams & a 2022 1st (likely late) 

2. Goff+ Najee Harris, Debo, & a 2022 1st (likely late) 

3. Goff+ Cam Akers, Debo & 2022 2nd (likely late)

and I might be able to squeeze 2022 1st in deal #3. They really want Mahomes & told me what they paid in another league last week. 

?

1, 2, or 3, or not at all?

I’m in need of a RB (always) so the idea of getting Cam or Harris is very appealing. But I feel like Mahomes to Goff is falling off of a steep cliff.

I would also be left with a trio of Goff, DJones & Carr at QB. Which is, shall we say, less than spectacular. They also have Matt Ryan, but he’s no spring chicken. 

In SF not enough to give up Mahomes IMO

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2 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I get it, small leagues are tough to get deals done in. I’ve been there.

But I can’t abide your stance that giving up the WR9 and WR14 in STARTUP DYNASTY ADP is somehow a positive for your roster. 

Hopkins is currently slotted between rookies 1 and 2, you sold him for pennies on the dollar. Evans is worth more than the pick you got for Hopkins. 

You’re blowing up your team because of Rookie Fever in what is considered to be one of the weakest draft classes in a long time, and you didn’t even get one of the top studs in return. 

If I’m moving Nuk or Evans for rookie picks, I’m getting ####-ing Chase or keeping my studs. 

It’s a 12 team league, so I’m not sure why you’d say it’s a small league. 

And I’ve been trying to move Nuk for several years now with no takers. I like Pitts, he was there at 8. I felt like I got fair value for a WR who’s gonna turn 30 this year who’s generated practically no interest since he went to AZ.

I’m also not particularly high on his QB, so there’s that. Nuk has been good to me. He was my 1st pick in this league. I felt like it was worth the chance to get the next Kelce, if that's what Pitts is. 

but that’s the beauty of this topic - everyone has their own idea of what players are worth. My take is that it kinda doesn’t matter what you think Nuk is worth. It only matters what my leaguemates think Nuk is worth, and they’ve not been particularly interested in him.

I'm ok with the deal. I do think it helps me for the future because I got younger & potentially better at a rare position of production. I’ve watched teams hang onto players a year too long instead of dealing them a year early & suffered for it. 

And I ended up with a player I really like. 

I understand it’s not a deal you would have made. I appreciate your input. But again, don’t assume I’m “throwing in the towel” because I’m open to offers & doing a value check on this forum. That’s exactly what this topic is for. I still have Evans. I parted ways with Hopkins. It is what it is. 

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Every Tuesday DFL has been doing an “ ask DLF” dynasty show on Youtube

 it usually runs around 4 hrs and they answer dynasty questions that are asked in the chat/on Twitter.The one guy takes some getting used to IMO but it is entertaining  and somewhat informative. I am not aware of any other shows like this. Hopefully it is ok to post the link here.

https://youtu.be/4XyOVK2J3s0

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1 minute ago, JoeSteeler said:

Every Tuesday DFL has been doing an “ ask DLF” dynasty show on Youtube

 it usually runs around 4 hrs and they answer dynasty questions that are asked in the chat/on Twitter.The one guy takes some getting used to IMO but it is entertaining  and somewhat informative. I am not aware of any other shows like this. Hopefully it is ok to post the link here.

https://youtu.be/4XyOVK2J3s0

Thanks - I’ll check It out. 

IMO anything that’s informative about dynasty value belongs on the dynast value topic. Seems logical. 👍🏼

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Thanks - I’ll check It out. 

IMO anything that’s informative about dynasty value belongs on the dynast value topic. Seems logical. 👍🏼

Yeah you can't ask questions in here in the form of a question. 

"What is the value of Mahomes in SF" is the only thing you're allowed to say. It's dumb.

For me it takes a Godfather offer and not sure those pieces are good enough. I told someone that once during a negotiation, that it would take a Godfather offer. He responded "can you give me an idea what that might look like with my assets?" Which is a very reasonable question but the nature of Godfather offers are that they bring the offer to you and it blows your socks off. Only work I should do is hit the accept.

Normally I would say don't move the #1 asset but your team does need some work and if you can get a bunch of young blue chips I can see it. 

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Quote

Normally I would say don't move the #1 asset but your team does need some work and if you can get a bunch of young blue chips I can see it. 

Thank you for this. They came to me, & I’ve got the top asset, so I think I’m gonna take your advice & throw up a “this is what it would take to pry Mahomes from me, seeing as Goff is the best QB I could get back.” kinda thing. 

They have Amari Cooper, Debo & Henry. That plus Goff & a 2022 1st sounds like what I would need to still be a good team with Goff as my QB1A.

Really appreciate the way you put this - perspective is what I was looking for & this was excellent perspective. 👍🏼

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

Thank you for this. They came to me, & I’ve got the top asset, so I think I’m gonna take your advice & throw up a “this is what it would take to pry Mahomes from me, seeing as Goff is the best QB I could get back.” kinda thing. 

They have Amari Cooper & Henry. That plus Goff & a 2022 1st sounds like what I would need to still be a good team with Goff as my QB1A.

Really appreciate the way you put this - perspective is what I was looking for & this was excellent perspective. 👍🏼

IMHO, those players are not enough and do not improve your team. That is the only reason to make a trade…..to improve your team.

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28 minutes ago, robb said:

IMHO, those players are not enough and do not improve your team. That is the only reason to make a trade…..to improve your team.

Derick Henry or Najee Harris doesn’t improve my team? I also have no 1st rounder in 2022. This would correct that. 

Wow. So Mahomes is worth more than a 2022 1st, Goff, Henry & AC? I’m not even sure they’d accept that offer. 😳

What else would it take, in your opinion? Another RB? Another WR?  What moves the needle to where moving Mahomes actually helps my team? 

Or is the consensus in here that Mahomes is just too valuable to deal for anything? That’s the vibe I’m getting. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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4 minutes ago, robb said:

Not “anything”, just Cooper doesn’t help hou much. Henry has 1-2 years, then you are fight back where you are now.

That’s why I’d likely want Cam Akers, or Harris. 

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I dunno...the Higgins owner in my league isn’t that high on him. Makes me think I should target him then.

Regardless, I was speaking purely to value. Dude asked for a value check, I checked the calc. I’m not saying I’d take Stafford for Higgins if I had Higgins. :shrug: 
 

also there’s no way in hell anyone pays 2x firsts and Stafford for Higgins.

Data point: in the 12team FFPC start up draft that a bunch of FBG board members are involved in right now, Stafford went at 13.10 (but I was *this close to taking him at 11.9 but went Tanny instead). And Higgins went at 4.9

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12 minutes ago, joey said:

Data point: in the 12team FFPC start up draft that a bunch of FBG board members are involved in right now, Stafford went at 13.10 (but I was *this close to taking him at 11.9 but went Tanny instead). And Higgins went at 4.9

Fair, but that 4.9 also feels a little like an overpay for Higgins considering they have Boyd & just drafted a very talented WR. And 11.9 feels like a bargain for a QB capable of monster numbers who just upgraded his offense significantly with a change of scenery. 
 

what’s FFPC scoring for QBs? 6 pt or 4 pt TD? Yardage .1/25? -3 Ints? Not saying, asking as I don’t know. 

where do you project Higgins stat line?

O/U 70 rec?
O/U 600 yards?

O/U 7 TD? 

Anyway, I’m not sure what Higgins is worth in terms of QB I guess. I just tossed out what I saw in the calc, like I said. 

If someone needs a QB come November & Stafford is lighting it up, I bet he’ll probably cost more than Higgins. 

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

What moves the needle to where moving Mahomes actually helps my team?

If I’m looking to move Mahomes in a SF league with generous QB scoring, I would need to get back a QB in the dynasty QB5-10 range AND a RB1 or WR1 who is young.

He’s simply such a massive advantage to the team owning him that it should severely cripple a team obtaining him. 

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

If I’m looking to move Mahomes in a SF league with generous QB scoring, I would need to get back a QB in the dynasty QB5-10 range AND a RB1 or WR1 who is young.

He’s simply such a massive advantage to the team owning him that it should severely cripple a team obtaining him. 

Something like Burrow/Sermon/AJ Brown? Or would that need another RB or WR like a JuJu too? 

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19 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Something like Burrow/Sermon/AJ Brown? Or would that need another RB or WR like a JuJu too? 

If you believe Burrow is a perennial top-6/8 QB, this is pretty close. I’d likely reject it

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2 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

If you believe Burrow is a perennial top-6/8 QB, this is pretty close. I’d likely reject it

I mean, I could see him being 7-10. You said 5-10 before.  He’s certainly young & I liked what I saw before the injury.  So maybe adding in a 2nd WR or a future 1st would balance it even more to mitigate the Burrow risk. 

Appreciate the input. 

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8 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Not according to my draft calc. :shrug: 

All depends on who’s buying & selling though. 1 QB league makes him less valuable than SF. 

What calculator is that?  I looked at two calcs and they don't even have them close.

DLF
Higgins: 411
Stafford: 62

DTC
Higgins: 21
Stafford: 6

And startup ADP has Higgins in the 5th round and Stafford in the 12th.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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15 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

What calculator is that?  I looked at two calcs and they don't even have them close.

DLF
Higgins: 411
Stafford: 62

DTC
Higgins: 21
Stafford: 6

And startup ADP has Higgins in the 5th round and Stafford in the 12th.

The dynasty dominator app. 
 

glad to hear - I just traded for Higgins 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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15 hours ago, smbkrypt24 said:

😂😂. You think Higgins wouldn’t even fetch Stafford. It is time for you to get off the trade calculator. 
In a 1 QB league Higgins would fetch Stafford plus 2 1sts. 

Well I think you went a little too far (not sure Higgins is worth two firsts) but agree in a start 1QB league Stafford is nowhere close to Higgins.

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22 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Took Pitts, and get a mid 2nd next year. Feel like I got solid value for an aging Hopkins. 


 

gah - team 1.09also has 1.10 & 1.12

I’mma try for 1.11

I also would have taken Pitts as he is more likely to be a difference maker at his position. Relative length of careers for their relative positions also a factor.

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15 hours ago, smbkrypt24 said:

😂😂. You think Higgins wouldn’t even fetch Stafford. It is time for you to get off the trade calculator. 
In a 1 QB league Higgins would fetch Stafford plus 2 1sts

Did Randy Moss discover the fountain of youth and change his name to Higgins?

Never been a big Stafford guy but imagine he could take things to another level with the Rams.   Lots of options in 1 QB but Stafford can still be a plus option.  Of course, if a team moving Stafford had a better/younger QB, he could be willing to sell at a discounted rate; maybe add a late first to the offer.  The second 1st seems like quite a stretch.

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Price check on Bryron Pringle?

I pick next at 3.03 & there are options like kennith gainwell D’Wayne Eskridge & Kyle Trask on the board. 

I don’t pick again until the 5th & I’m sure Pringle will be gone by then. 

Buzz seems to be building that Pringle could be the WR2 in KC.  
 

worth the pick here? 

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Just dropped Randall Cobb for him in one league where he was available and we have off-season waivers.

I’d be tempted to nab him at the 3.3 over those dudes if I had a contending team.

Edited by battlestar
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19 minutes ago, battlestar said:

Just dropped Randall Cobb for him in one league where he was available and we have off-season waivers.

I’d be tempted to nab him at the 3.3 over those dudes if I had a contending team.

I grabbed him. What the heck - if he’s the WR2 he’s a bargain. 

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12 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I grabbed him. What the heck - if he’s the WR2 he’s a bargain. 

Good job. I was going to tell you to take him! Great stash.

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Value check: Michael Carter: would a 2023 1st + 2022 2nd be an overpay? 

I worry that the Jets might bring in a big back next year.

I guess a better question is “will Carter be a starting RB in the NFL & will he have long-term value?”

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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4 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Well I think you went a little too far (not sure Higgins is worth two firsts) but agree in a start 1QB league Stafford is nowhere close to Higgins.

For me he is worth more than 1 1st for sure.  Someone mentioned earlier Higgins startup ADP is in the 4th round.  He went 3.05 in the one dyno startup I did this offseason.  I think he is worth 2 firsts, but that's me.

Same league Stafford went in the 8th round.  That is too early for me, but maybe I am too low on him.  He is the kind of QB I can easily replace with a Roethlisberger, Ryan. Mayfield, Brady, Cousins type of QB for cheaper.

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6 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

For me he is worth more than 1 1st for sure.  Someone mentioned earlier Higgins startup ADP is in the 4th round.  He went 3.05 in the one dyno startup I did this offseason.  I think he is worth 2 firsts, but that's me.

Same league Stafford went in the 8th round.  That is too early for me, but maybe I am too low on him.  He is the kind of QB I can easily replace with a Roethlisberger, Ryan. Mayfield, Brady, Cousins type of QB for cheaper.

I mean, using small sample size, an argument could be made for or against any value. 

Using a single draft as anecdotal evidence of player value isn’t really the best way to determine it.

And, as you said, how you value a player (like Stafford) may be different than how others do.   

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5 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I mean, using small sample size, an argument could be made for or against any value. 

Using a single draft as anecdotal evidence of player value isn’t really the best way to determine it.

And, as you said, how you value a player (like Stafford) may be different than how others do.   

I also included the startup ADP from the other poster.  My league was similar to that value.  You missed the point of the post if that was what you chose to focus on.  

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1 minute ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I also included the startup ADP from the other poster.  My league was similar to that value.  You missed the point of the post if that was what you chose to focus on.  

I saw you said 4th, but that he went 3rd.

i understood your point, but was commenting on your other point, since you opted to include that small sample size info too.

Still doesn’t make Higgins worth 2x 1sts, which is what you were responding to. 

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I saw you said 4th, but that he went 3rd.

i understood your point, but was commenting on your other point, since you opted to include that small sample size info too.

Still doesn’t make Higgins worth 2x 1sts, which is what you were responding to. 

That is your opinion.  I do value him at 2 1sts.  

What is more important to say is that you would not need to add to Higgins in order to get Stafford.  You would need to add at least a 1st and in my opinion 2 1sts to go from Stafford to Higgins,

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13 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

That is your opinion.  I do value him at 2 1sts.  

which is the point I made that you seem to have missed. 

just because you value him there doesn’t mean that’s his value. Clearly you overvalue him. 

and we’ve come full circle. 

 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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16 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

That is your opinion.  I do value him at 2 1sts.  

What is more important to say is that you would not need to add to Higgins in order to get Stafford.  You would need to add at least a 1st and in my opinion 2 1sts to go from Stafford to Higgins,

I’d say closer to 1 1st than 2, but closer to 2 1sts than stafford being worth more in 1qb

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Who’s even giving up a 1st after the Bengals drafted Chase? I think Higgins is a full on Hold if you own him but wouldn’t expect more than a 2nd in an offer. But I don’t own either Higgins or Chase do this is an “outsider” pov

Edited by joey
Change “would” to “wouldn’t “
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1 hour ago, joey said:

Who’s even giving up a 1st after the Bengals drafted Chase? I think Higgins is a full on Hold if you own him but would expect more than a 2nd in an offer. But I don’t own either Higgins or Chase do this is an “outsider” pov

I just obtained Higgins and I agree totally. I think he’s a strong hold, and a talent, but there are two issues that IMO drop his value a little from last year to this: 

1. shiny new toy in the draft

2. lack of shiny new OL for Cinci to protect their QB. 

not saying his value tanked - but agree that those are not non-factors. 

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2 hours ago, joey said:

Who’s even giving up a 1st after the Bengals drafted Chase? I think Higgins is a full on Hold if you own him but wouldn’t expect more than a 2nd in an offer. But I don’t own either Higgins or Chase do this is an “outsider” pov

Higgins should be worth a first-round pick, joey. I know I couldn't get him for a two in my league, or I'd certainly do that. He's about a mid-1st according to almost all calcs and just reason.

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5 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I need to send out offers for Higgins in all my leagues if some people have Stafford worth more than Higgins and others have Higgins worth a 2nd rounder.

This is the absolute first thing that went through my mind but I know the Higgins owner in my main league, trade with him, and don't want to give him bad offers because we're sort of like league pals and all. I wouldn't insult him with offering him a second.

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4 minutes ago, rockaction said:

This is the absolute first thing that went through my mind but I know the Higgins owner in my main league, trade with him, and don't want to give him bad offers because we're sort of like league pals and all. I wouldn't insult him with offering him a second.

Haha, yeah I wouldn't either, but if someone thinks he is worth a random or late first next year I am going to jump all over that.

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48 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I need to send out offers for Higgins in all my leagues if some people have Stafford worth more than Higgins and others have Higgins worth a 2nd rounder.

I didn’t see “Higgins worth a 2nd rounder”. I saw “2 firsts for Higgins”. 

I did get Higgins at what I thought was a value cost in a trade yesterday, but he was still worth “~a first” in the context of that deal.

 But not 2.  

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On 6/19/2021 at 10:07 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Fair, but that 4.9 also feels a little like an overpay for Higgins considering they have Boyd & just drafted a very talented WR. And 11.9 feels like a bargain for a QB capable of monster numbers who just upgraded his offense significantly with a change of scenery. 
 

what’s FFPC scoring for QBs? 6 pt or 4 pt TD? Yardage .1/25? -3 Ints? Not saying, asking as I don’t know. 

where do you project Higgins stat line?

O/U 70 rec?
O/U 600 yards?

O/U 7 TD? 

Anyway, I’m not sure what Higgins is worth in terms of QB I guess. I just tossed out what I saw in the calc, like I said. 

If someone needs a QB come November & Stafford is lighting it up, I bet he’ll probably cost more than Higgins. 

Higgins, I have him higher than you. Say 70/1020/7 for 221 in PPR around WR 24

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How do you guys feel about this trade I was just offered?

My -

Joe Mixon (1 yr)

Evan Engram (1 yr)

2022 2nd

His -

Jk Dobbins (4yr)

 

Current other rbs are CEH (4yr) and K Hunt (1 yr) and I've got j hasty, t homer, and ty Johnson on my ts on the off chance any of them end up being useful at some point in their careers.  Current TEs are Dan Arnold (1 yr), Gerald Everett (1 yr), and CJ Uzomah (2yr) - so basically a lot of backend dart throws.

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10 hours ago, Penguin said:

Higgins, I have him higher than you. Say 70/1020/7 for 221 in PPR around WR 24

I very much hope you're  right since I just dealt for him. :wub: 

Latest news is he may be the WR1, which would be awesome. 

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