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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Value check on Uzomah? 

Bengals talking about wanting to get him 50+ receptions.

he looked good before the Achilles, and reports are that he’s back to 100%. Sample’s meh & IMO not a threat to take away work from him.

Curious what the sharks think of C.J.

:shark:

Maybe different in TE premium but he doesn’t really move the needle for me with all of chase/Boyd/Higgins/prob the backs ahead of him in the pecking order, coming off an Achilles and having been ok but nothing special before. Def possible he wins the job and is a reasonable TE2 but I have a hard time envisioning a future where I’m excited to put him in a lineup.

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14 minutes ago, osubuckeyeman said:

Could be open seems with all the weapons they have.

cant cover everyone. 

14 minutes ago, osubuckeyeman said:

Bengals have not targeted the TE much since Eifert and he was more a redzone threat. The TE has been more of another lineman with how bad the line has been the last couple years.

He was used pretty extensively as a move TE last year before the injury. 2 games, 11 targets, 8 receptions & 1 TD.

Small sample size, I realize, but they did say he would be used as a big receiver & that was true. 

Over a season that translates to 93 targets, 68 receptions, ~8 TDs

if he hits 80% of that he’s at 74 targets for 54, ~6 TDs, and they said they want to get him ~50, so it seems realistic. 

Career YPR is 9.6, so toss in ~500 receiving yards & thats probably worthy of top 12, no?  It’s not too far off of Fant (with 2x the TD) and Fant gets a lot of hype.

Seems like a good buy-low for a TE needy team. 

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10 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Value check on Uzomah? 

Bengals talking about wanting to get him 50+ receptions.

he looked good before the Achilles, and reports are that he’s back to 100%. Sample’s meh & IMO not a threat to take away work from him.

Curious what the sharks think of C.J.

:shark:

I still have him in one league, but it’s hard to get too excited about him. The upside just isn’t there with him average skill set and competition for targets in that offense.

Even if everything went perfectly right for him, at best he’s a low end TE1 and that’s not very valuable in the current landscape.

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11 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Value check on Uzomah? 

Bengals talking about wanting to get him 50+ receptions.

he looked good before the Achilles, and reports are that he’s back to 100%. Sample’s meh & IMO not a threat to take away work from him.

Curious what the sharks think of C.J.

:shark:

I agree with the others - he could get open fairly easily sometimes with all of the other targets, but he's still they're receiver #4 at best.  I think you can take a flier on him as a backup and see what happens but I doubt you can trade him for much right now.

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4 minutes ago, RC94 said:

I agree with the others - he could get open fairly easily sometimes with all of the other targets, but he's still they're receiver #4 at best.  I think you can take a flier on him as a backup and see what happens but I doubt you can trade him for much right now.

I find it better not to waste a roster spot on these kinds of TEs because they most likely will never be fantasy relevant.  Or I should say, they are easily replaced with another one that is similar.  In other words, I would much rather stash a dart throw at a RB or high upside WR.

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5 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I find it better not to waste a roster spot on these kinds of TEs because they most likely will never be fantasy relevant.  Or I should say, they are easily replaced with another one that is similar.  In other words, I would much rather stash a dart throw at a RB or high upside WR.

He's been a waiver wire add in some of my leagues and that's his value right now.  If there was a RB or WR with upside available for that price I wouldn't hesitate to drop Uzomah for him.

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26 minutes ago, RC94 said:

I agree with the others - he could get open fairly easily sometimes with all of the other targets, but he's still they're receiver #4 at best.  I think you can take a flier on him as a backup and see what happens but I doubt you can trade him for much right now.

Oh he’s been my 4th TE for 2 years.

He’s behind Pitts & Engram on my roster now as my TE3, but come mid-season if he’s averaging 3-4 receptions a game, maybe .4 TD/gm, I’ll probably see if I can get a 2023 3rd for him or something. 

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21 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I find it better not to waste a roster spot on these kinds of TEs because they most likely will never be fantasy relevant.  Or I should say, they are easily replaced with another one that is similar.  In other words, I would much rather stash a dart throw at a RB or high upside WR.

Depends on roster size. In my league we have enough room for both, so...ive been hanging on to him to see what happens. :shrug: 

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I don’t think he’s a terrible shot if you’re TE needy (though I tend to swing for the fences—I’d rather have a Jacob Harris’ 10% chance of a stud 90% chance of nothing than a guy like this with maybe a 35% chance of landing somewhere between back-end TE1-TE2).

My ‘meh’ take was more in relation to the phrasing of the question, “value check,” to which I don’t really believe he has any at the moment. 

If you like him more than the Knox/Hollister/Firkser types floating around out there I’m not inclined to argue against it

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I think you're napping a little bit on Firkser, who I think has shown more likely potential and better ceiling than Uzomah - although I agree that neither is likely to ever be a TE1.

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Seems like the most related place to post this.  Just started the startup draft yesterday for a new dynasty devy SF TEP league.  Playing with mostly friends and seems like not many have played dynasty before.  Several old school drafters not adjusting and hitting RB pretty hard.  Through the first three rounds I have Dak, Herbert, and Burrow.  Seemed like a good idea at the time but still QB's on the board I'd be happy having, probably should have mixed it up early to allow some flexibility.  Or I just keep hammering QB and hope people come calling eventually.  You guys ever have a startup like that?

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24 minutes ago, Lehigh98 said:

Seems like the most related place to post this.  Just started the startup draft yesterday for a new dynasty devy SF TEP league.  Playing with mostly friends and seems like not many have played dynasty before.  Several old school drafters not adjusting and hitting RB pretty hard.  Through the first three rounds I have Dak, Herbert, and Burrow.  Seemed like a good idea at the time but still QB's on the board I'd be happy having, probably should have mixed it up early to allow some flexibility.  Or I just keep hammering QB and hope people come calling eventually.  You guys ever have a startup like that?

Don't keep taking QB's.  You won't get the return you hope for even in SF in this situation.  I have seen many people try to corner the market on QB's and they end up sitting on them most of the year and losing because the rest of their roster is terrible.  

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4 minutes ago, Gally said:

Don't keep taking QB's.  You won't get the return you hope for even in SF in this situation.  I have seen many people try to corner the market on QB's and they end up sitting on them most of the year and losing because the rest of their roster is terrible.  

Yep, that was what I was afraid of.  Would have done my first couple picks differently if I knew no one would be taking QB's at all.  Time to switch gears.  Was trying to talk people into a QB run but that's not happening either.  :bag:

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I'd downgrade the remaining QBs some, especially the older ones, but wouldn't take them off my board completely. Probably aim to draft 2ish more, like Lance or Z Wilson. And generally build a young team that's in good position to compete in a year or two, not necessarily this season.

QBs retain their value pretty well (they get little to no downgrade merely from aging another year each year), so if it takes a year or two for your leaguemates to realize that it's not good to be starting only 1 QB each week you can wait them out. And if you have 5 QBs in the meantime, you get some benefit from being able to withstand injuries & down years, and having more shots at the QB who's having a big year.

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Just because it is SF doesn’t mean you need to hammer QBs early to win, it really depends on what your scoring system looks like and how balanced it is between positions. Are QBs ranked as 20 of the top 32 players from 2020? Or are they 12 of the top 32?  That’s a massive difference and potential drafting mistake by you. 

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9 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Just because it is SF doesn’t mean you need to hammer QBs early to win, it really depends on what your scoring system looks like and how balanced it is between positions. Are QBs ranked as 20 of the top 32 players from 2020? Or are they 12 of the top 32?  That’s a massive difference and potential drafting mistake by you. 

This is a great point.  Not all SF leagues are equal.  It really depends on the scoring system and where QB's rank compared to other positions as tangfoot mentioned.  This goes into knowing your rules, scoring system, etc to make sure you aren't missing possible chances at gaining an advantage.  If all the other owners let QB's go maybe they aren't the obvious play in the SF lineup spot.  

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In my experience with SF QB values can vary pretty drastically across multiple leagues even with the same settings.  It all comes down to how much the league as a whole values them.  If the league collectively decides QBs aren't going to be worth insane amounts then that's probably not going to change after the draft. 

I've never really seen people have much luck with hoarding QBs when they fall because the guys you are then trying to trade those QBs too are the same guys that just passed on them in the 5th round for a 4th running back.  Assuming a 12 team league it's not like people get SO desperate for one once the season rolls around that they start throwing out great offers for them.  Most people can get along just fine in a 12 team SF league without having to have 2 or 3 good QBs on their roster.

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24 minutes ago, JoeSteeler said:

Any thoughts on Kylen Granson as a late round dynasty stash (TE prem)?

I’m generally pretty tuned in to most prospects, but I’ve never heard this name. It would have to be a league with 40+ man rosters for me to take complete flyers on TE prospects with less than a 1% chance of being relevant

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Just now, tangfoot said:

I’m generally pretty tuned in to most prospects, but I’ve never heard this name. It would have to be a league with 40+ man rosters for me to take complete flyers on TE prospects with less than a 1% chance of being relevant

To be honest, I thought he said "Kyle's grandson"...  I know Pitts is considered a huge talent but what a deep Devy league to be drafting now for 2061

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8 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I’m generally pretty tuned in to most prospects, but I’ve never heard this name. It would have to be a league with 40+ man rosters for me to take complete flyers on TE prospects with less than a 1% chance of being relevant

16 team, 51 man rosters, IDP, TE prem

Here is the FBG write up on his player page 

Rookie tight end, Kylen Granson is one to watch as a potential riser in the Colts prolific offense that features the tight end position. In the last two years at SMU, Kylen Granson had 78 receptions for 1,257 yards and 14 touchdowns. At 6'1, 240 pounds, he is small for a tight end, but big for a wide receiver and he plays more like a wide receiver. Colts head coach Frank Reich was thrilled with this fourth-round draft pick. In the last five years, no team has more touchdowns to tight ends (52) than the Colts, with Carson Wentz's Eagles team #2 with 50. The outlook for Granson is on the rise. There are still areas for him to improve, namely blocking, but he won't be asked to block like other tight ends. His ability to create separation and gain yards after the catch is what makes him an exciting prospect, especially for his size. He's a big wide receiver playing the tight end position. If he learns the playbook, excels quickly, and is given a chance to be a receiving threat as a move tight end as expected, he could have a fantasy impact in year one.

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16 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I’m generally pretty tuned in to most prospects, but I’ve never heard this name. It would have to be a league with 40+ man rosters for me to take complete flyers on TE prospects with less than a 1% chance of being relevant

I have been hearing about him ever since they drafted him in the 4th round and the coach talked about using him like Burton. IDK where <1% comes from but I'll take the over. He is free but whether you wanna spend a roster spot is a fair question. 

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10 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I have been hearing about him ever since they drafted him in the 4th round and the coach talked about using him like Burton. IDK where <1% comes from but I'll take the over. He is free but whether you wanna spend a roster spot is a fair question. 

4th round, undersized TE on a team that rotates TEs more than any other team with the possible exception of Seattle. 

Less than 1%, I would say with this new information in hand. 

Edit: this may just be my personal philosophy, but I don’t dabble in any rookie TEs because the hit rate is so abysmal. To take a team’s TE5 (at best?) is just a waste of roster space.

What would he have to do to want you to keep him on your roster? Just make the final roster?  Be active on Sundays?  There’s a massive gulf between a lottery ticket prospect in July and someone I consider keeping when real games begin. 

So, sure. Take him for free today. And hope he scores a TD in the preseason, and then almost certainly cut him anyway for the shiny new thing after Week 1

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56 minutes ago, JoeSteeler said:

Any thoughts on Kylen Granson as a late round dynasty stash (TE prem)?

I like him, but I like Jacob Harris a little more. Once Tremble was off the board in my TE premium I targeted these two. I was able to wait a round on Harris because he was still listed as WR at the time, but would take him earlier than Granson if he's marked TE.

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Just now, thriftyrocker said:

I like him, but I like Jacob Harris a little more. Once Tremble was off the board in my TE premium I targeted these two. I was able to wait a round on Harris because he was still listed as WR at the time, but would take him earlier than Granson if he's marked TE.

I like Harris much more but Granson does intrigue me.

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5 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Edit: this may just be my personal philosophy, but I don’t dabble in any rookie TEs because the hit rate is so abysmal. To take a team’s TE5 (at best?) is just a waste of roster space.

I agree in most leagues, but there's definitely configurations where TEs are worth stashing. He's 3rd on the depth chart behind Doyle and MAC, and both those guys are mediocre and ready to be replaced.

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6 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

I agree in most leagues, but there's definitely configurations where TEs are worth stashing. He's 3rd on the depth chart behind Doyle and MAC, and both those guys are mediocre and ready to be replaced.

Sure, I’m stocking up on these guys in my start-3 TE leagues with 5 PPR TE premium scoring. 

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I like Granson & Harris as stashes in TE premium. Athletic, receiving-first TEs, drafted in rd4, getting some buzz from their teams. I'd roster either of them ahead of guys like Herndon, Knox, or Uzomah.

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On 7/13/2021 at 7:02 PM, tangfoot said:

Just because it is SF doesn’t mean you need to hammer QBs early to win, it really depends on what your scoring system looks like and how balanced it is between positions. Are QBs ranked as 20 of the top 32 players from 2020? Or are they 12 of the top 32?  That’s a massive difference and potential drafting mistake by you. 

I'm new to dynasty so appreciate all the feedback and advice. @tangfoot @Gally @ZWK

7 of the top 10 scores last year would have been QB's, and 15 of the top 25.

Here's top 25:

1.Allen, Josh BUF QB 418.06 

2.Kelce, Travis KCC TE 417.7 

3.Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 405.06 

4.Murray, Kyler ARI QB 397.94 

5.Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB 393.60 

6.Watson, Deshaun HOU QB 391.32 

7.Waller, Darren LVR TE 385.60 

8.Wilson, Russell SEA QB 380.78 

9.Kamara, Alvin NOS RB 377.80 

10.Tannehill, Ryan TEN QB 359.26 

11.Adams, Davante GBP WR 358.40 

12.Brady, Tom TBB QB 357.12 

13.Herbert, Justin LAC QB 352.54 

14.Jackson, Lamar BAL QB 343.58 

15.Cook, Dalvin MIN RB 337.80 

16.Henry, Derrick TEN RB 333.10 

17.Hill, Tyreek KCC WR 328.90 

18.Diggs, Stefon BUF WR 328.60 

19.Cousins, Kirk MIN QB 324.40 

20.Ryan, Matt ATL QB 301.24 

21.Carr, Derek LVR QB 290.02 

22.Hopkins, DeAndre ARI WR 287.80 

23.Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 286.22 

24.Ridley, Calvin ATL WR 281.50 

25.Stafford, Matthew LAR QB 275.56 

The 24 guys in the league (double player rosters, so ends up similar ADP to 12 team league) aren't very experienced with dynasty and alot are picking like it's redraft so dynasty values keep falling.  I'm up next for my 7.10 pick and Tua and Watson are still on the board.  Other options are Javonte Wiliams x2, Aiyuk x2, Waddle x2, Higgins x2, Jeudy x2, etc.  

Right now I have Dak, Herbert, Burrow, Swift, Chase, DJ Moore.  With everybody approaching as redraft and dynasty values falling I'm probably going with a strategy to win later.  Who do you think is the best dynasty value above to build with if I'm not looking to win this year?  Take Tua or Watson or take young RB and WR talent?

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12 minutes ago, Lehigh98 said:

 Right now I have Dak, Herbert, Burrow, Swift, Chase, DJ Moore.  With everybody approaching as redraft and dynasty values falling I'm probably going with a strategy to win later.  Who do you think is the best dynasty value above to build with if I'm not looking to win this year?  Take Tua or Watson or take young RB and WR talent?

Without knowing the full availability of players (just the ones you listed) or lineup requirements I would lean toward Javonte Williams of those listed.  You are definitely going for the future with this build as everyone you have is very young so far.  I would also be tempted to take Watson just because he could end up a steal and give you some flexibility for future moves but I probably wouldn't go that route.  

 

Only having five options plus the 2 Qb's shown it's fairly easy Williams for me of those choices.

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You haven't told us your starting lineup requirements.  I would take Williams if it is start-2 RBs, but if you only have to start one, I would be hammering WR for the next few rounds.

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36 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

You haven't told us your starting lineup requirements.  I would take Williams if it is start-2 RBs, but if you only have to start one, I would be hammering WR for the next few rounds.

Superflex, Best Ball, TEP (2 ppr instead of 1), start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF (QB/RB/WR/TE), and 5 Flex (RB/WR/TE).

I'm OTC (Jack Burton) here... Fantasy Football: Heroes & Villains of the 80's Draft Grid (myfantasyleague.com)

BTW, sorry to get Assistant Coach-y in here.

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Another vote for Javonte and agree with @tangfootthat I would be hammering WRs from here. Not quite a productive struggle team with the quality of youth but I would definitely shy away from anything on the redraft end of things. 

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Just now, Lehigh98 said:

Yes, sorry, forgot to mention its also best ball.

That is a huge thing to leave out.  Based on that I wouldn't worry about positions much at all because you have a ton of flexibility there and the "cards play themselves".   Just take the guy you have rated highest.  

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12 minutes ago, Gally said:

That is a huge thing to leave out.  Based on that I wouldn't worry about positions much at all because you have a ton of flexibility there and the "cards play themselves".   Just take the guy you have rated highest.  

Well, I have Tua and Watson rated highest but can only start 2 QB's.  That's why I was asking more about who had the highest value as a building block.  I will need to start at least 1 RB and only have Swift so far and have Javonte pretty high on my board so will probably go with him.  Then I'll look to hit young WRs and TEs hard.  Thanks guys.

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With best ball superflex, you can draft 4 QB with the plan of keeping them all - they'll all be hitting your starting lineup so it's not even excessive. You potentially could compete this year with that roster structure. 3 starting QBs is much better than 2. (5 QBs gets to be a little much, unless you're angling for trades or they're not costing you premium draft picks.)

With only 1 starting RB required, RB is significantly less important than in most leagues - a lot of the value of RBs comes from scarcity.

2 PPR for TEs drastically increases their value, especially with best ball & all the flex spots. Kelce was the most valuable player in this format last year (and highest scoring player wk1-16). There's a bit of a lull at TE after Fant IMO, but starting in a couple rounds I'd hit the position hard over the rest of the draft.

Some really good young WRs still available. Probably where the best value is at this point.

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On 7/13/2021 at 10:44 PM, thriftyrocker said:

I agree in most leagues, but there's definitely configurations where TEs are worth stashing. He's 3rd on the depth chart behind Doyle and MAC, and both those guys are mediocre and ready to be replaced.

I disagree about MAC. Consider how his 2020 PFF grades ranked:

  • Overall (80.9): #3 out of 32 graded Colts players on 527 snaps; #9 out of 137 graded TEs across the league
  • Receiving (79.0): #2 out of 16 graded Colts players on 222 snaps; #14 out of 125 graded TEs across the league
  • Run blocking (69.8): #7 out of 31 graded Colts players on 285 snaps; #21 out of 137 graded TEs across the league
  • Pass blocking (81.8): tied for #1 out of 22 graded Colts players on 20 snaps; #3 out of 129 graded TEs across the league

He is a UFA after this season. That can be perceived as a pro or a con; probably depends on how he performs this season. He certainly has the opportunity to earn a #1 TE spot, whether with the Colts or another franchise.

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

What does everyone think about Damien Harris's value?

I’m stoked to have him as my rb4 in a league where I got him for nothing.

If I had to start him every week I’d be sweating

Fair value is prob a mid-2nd but a lot of prospective trade partners will want nothing to do with giving it to you

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Just now, EthnicFury said:

I’m stoked to have him as my rb4 in a league where I got him for nothing.

If I had to start him every week I’d be sweating

Fair value is prob a mid-2nd but a lot of prospective trade partners will want nothing to do with giving it to you

I offered a 2022 2nd (probably 2.07-2.09ish) for him today and was flat rejected.  Granted it may have looked like a desperation move since I just lost Akers. 

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43 minutes ago, JoeSteeler said:

1QB? mid 2nd. Will prob take a late1st to acquire him though.

That's about what I'm thinking. In this case, I'm the guy holding. A 2nd wasn't enough.

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