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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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40 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I'm not sure a Pitts owner would give anything additional to "move up" to Kittle.

Further, I'm not sure a Pitts owner would move him for Kittle 1:1.

:goodposting:

Agree or disagree, Pitts went 1.1 in my league's rookie draft. It's unlikely 1.1 would be considered the going rate for Kittle in my league, at least with that owner.

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4 minutes ago, BigJim® said:

:goodposting:

Agree or disagree, Pitts went 1.1 in my league's rookie draft. It's unlikely 1.1 would be considered the going rate for Kittle in my league, at least with that owner.

Agree with both of these posts. I wouldn’t trade Pitts for Kittle straight up.

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

I'm not sure a Pitts owner would give anything additional to "move up" to Kittle.

Further, I'm not sure a Pitts owner would move him for Kittle 1:1.

 

I was going to post the same thing.  Now throw in an IDP player and you have a deal...hahaha

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I did 2 startup dynasty leagues this offseason.  The top 4 TEs in order for one was Kittle, Pitts, Kelce, and Waller and in the other it was Pitts, Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

Edited by RC94
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2 hours ago, RC94 said:

I did 2 startup dynasty leagues this offseason.  The top 4 TEs in order for one was Kittle, Pitts, Kelce, and Waller and in the other it was Pitts, Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

I could see the latter happening with greater frequency if camp writers continuing to report that he’s being used out of the slot & outside on the majority of his routes. 

A 6’6” 240 lb WR that runs a 4.40 and can play in your TE slot for a decade?

yes please. :wub: 

 

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8 minutes ago, The Show said:

Was just offered Hopkins and Pitts for my DJ Moore, E Moore, D Waller. Thinking really hard about this one ….

That’s tough. Waller is also a young & highly productive TE. 

Getting a 30 year old WR for Moore & Moore isn’t that appealing to me, but if you’re in win-now mode i can see how it would be tempting. Hopkins is definitely an immediate upgrade, if not long-term. 

The only risk there is if Pitts doesn’t hit his ceiling. Maybe I’m stating the obvious. 

I’d probably pass, but i get why it’s tempting. 

 

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1 hour ago, The Show said:

Was just offered Hopkins and Pitts for my DJ Moore, E Moore, D Waller. Thinking really hard about this one ….

 

1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s tough. Waller is also a young & highly productive TE. 

Getting a 30 year old WR for Moore & Moore isn’t that appealing to me, but if you’re in win-now mode i can see how it would be tempting. Hopkins is definitely an immediate upgrade, if not long-term. 

The only risk there is if Pitts doesn’t hit his ceiling. Maybe I’m stating the obvious. 

I’d probably pass, but i get why it’s tempting. 

 

Isn't Waller older too?  IIRC 29 this season?  So I agree passing on the older players for the talented youth 

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3 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

 

Isn't Waller older too?  IIRC 29 this season?  So I agree passing on the older players for the talented youth 

He’s 28, 29 in September. 

but he has lower mileage than Hopkins, so to speak.

I think it’s a fair trade, but Hopkins is a shorter term prospect than Waller 8 the 2 Moore’s.

I’d be ok with whichever side, but it would come down to my confidence in Pitts & my team situation. 

FWIW I dealt Hopkins for 1.08 & a 2022 2nd because Pitts was on the board at 1.08. So I do believe in Pits. 

But I also didn’t have Waller, so slightly different situation. 

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How do you judge value for the types of players who are top echelon of their position? (ex. Pitts, CMC, Mahomes, etc.)

A fantasy adage that's stuck with me for years is when I try to trade I always try to get the best individual player in the deal, which can lead to me giving more volume for perceived better value, etc. Now that I'm an owner of one of these top guys, and to avoid turning it into an assistant coach question, how do you best judge when the value being sent is enough to consider moving off of one of them?

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Separate question to not clog up my original - If I was curious about devy considerations, does it make sense to spin off a separate thread to talk about that stuff there or are there enough of us here who play devy to have that in this thread and/or on footballguys at all?

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10 minutes ago, Jayded said:

Separate question to not clog up my original - If I was curious about devy considerations, does it make sense to spin off a separate thread to talk about that stuff there or are there enough of us here who play devy to have that in this thread and/or on footballguys at all?

I would like to see if kept here. I read enough questions about dynasty that it feels appropriate to be included here.

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2 hours ago, Jayded said:

How do you judge value for the types of players who are top echelon of their position? (ex. Pitts, CMC, Mahomes, etc.)

A fantasy adage that's stuck with me for years is when I try to trade I always try to get the best individual player in the deal, which can lead to me giving more volume for perceived better value, etc. Now that I'm an owner of one of these top guys, and to avoid turning it into an assistant coach question, how do you best judge when the value being sent is enough to consider moving off of one of them?

Two main adages I try to follow in dynasty, and I readily admit I have difficulty with the second one:

1. Always try to be the team getting the best player in the deal. Even if it means slightly overpaying in whole, I want to come out with whom I perceive is the best player, so I end up with a better starting lineup.

2. Sell your players a year before they totally decline and you get nothing. I learned my lesson holding Gurley too long in one league (and more players farther back than I care to admit). Just like the real NFL GM counterparts, you can't get emotionally attached to players.

It's playing a fine line between win now and reload, and it is definitely more of an artform than a science.

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17 minutes ago, acarey50 said:

2. Sell your players a year before they totally decline and you get nothing. I learned my lesson holding Gurley too long in one league (and more players farther back than I care to admit). Just like the real NFL GM counterparts, you can't get emotionally attached to players.

It's playing a fine line between win now and reload, and it is definitely more of an artform than a science.

 

the Bill Walsh philosophy. Better a year early than a year late. 

I moved Hopkins to get Pitts with the pick for this exact reason. He might be great this year. He might be great next year. But that cliff is coming. I can’t say when but age 30 is generally closer to the end than the beginning. 

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9 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

He’s 28, 29 in September. 

but he has lower mileage than Hopkins, so to speak.

I think it’s a fair trade, but Hopkins is a shorter term prospect than Waller 8 the 2 Moore’s.

I’d be ok with whichever side, but it would come down to my confidence in Pitts & my team situation. 

FWIW I dealt Hopkins for 1.08 & a 2022 2nd because Pitts was on the board at 1.08. So I do believe in Pits. 

But I also didn’t have Waller, so slightly different situation. 

I appreciate the feed back. The full team roster is…..

 

Lamar, Z Wilson 

Chubb, Mixon, Gaskin, D Henderson, Fournette, Hines, C Evans, L Rountree 

Julio, Golladay, DJ Moore, E Moore, G Davis, J Palmer

Waller, L Thomas, Jonnu 

 

 

Not sure I need to make this trade. I guess I feel like I’m lacking a stud WR which Hopkins would fill. But as many have stated. How far until he falls off the cliff? 

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18 hours ago, acarey50 said:

Two main adages I try to follow in dynasty, and I readily admit I have difficulty with the second one:

1. Always try to be the team getting the best player in the deal. Even if it means slightly overpaying in whole, I want to come out with whom I perceive is the best player, so I end up with a better starting lineup.

2. Sell your players a year before they totally decline and you get nothing. I learned my lesson holding Gurley too long in one league (and more players farther back than I care to admit). Just like the real NFL GM counterparts, you can't get emotionally attached to players.

It's playing a fine line between win now and reload, and it is definitely more of an artform than a science.

 

You hit on the crux of my question. Flip your consideration backwards though. What if you are the owner of Mahomes/Pitts/CMC and people are trying to come after them? You know you aren't getting the best player in the deal because you already own that player. How do you go about valuing "that's enough" so you give up the stud in question for enough pieces that it makes sense to move on?

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35 minutes ago, Jayded said:

 

You hit on the crux of my question. Flip your consideration backwards though. What if you are the owner of Mahomes/Pitts/CMC and people are trying to come after them? You know you aren't getting the best player in the deal because you already own that player. How do you go about valuing "that's enough" so you give up the stud in question for enough pieces that it makes sense to move on?

A lot depends on your team situation, If in a complete rebuild, it would make sense to trade for multiple future 1sts, whereas that return would be of limited use if re-tooling/trying to remain in contention, unless you have the depth to offset the reduction in your starting lineup.

In that situation, if trading the best player away, for me, it would take significant enough upgrades, likely at multiple positions, especially if not downgrading at the players position. It will definitely be a multiple assets package and you should expect to be getting another premium asset - either buying back years at the same position for an ascending asset that also provides immediate production, a top player at another position. or usable depth added to your starting roster. In the end, you would have to judge if you deem the return worth it when you are contemplating a deal. Good luck!

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@Jayded - @zaner75's response is worded about as well as I think I could.

Team situation dictates a lot of what becomes valuable. If you are stacked and playing to win it all, I'm rarely willing to deal a top player as the only deals I really want to do are to improve my starting lineup, which means I want to be the one packaging assets for a stud. Depth is a bit less valuable in this instance.

If I am a good team, but a piece or two away from contending and not in rebuild territory, then I'm reluctant to deal a top player unless I am getting multiple startable players in return that should make my overall lineup better and get me closer to contending.

If I am in rebuild or only have one or two strong pieces, then I'm dealing for youth/picks, as that one player isn't going to win me a title by himself, I need multiple assets. So that could be multiple future 1sts, up and coming rookies/2nd year players with high ceilings or some combination of the both.

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Thanks for the input. Still trying to avoid the Assistant Coach-like feedback, but I'll add a few more details that feel like they do fit here.

I traded for Pitts this summer and it took me about a year to talk the other owner into it. Now, I have the target on my back since our league is TE Premium and Pitts is the current darling. I've seen a few suggested offers that make me question if I'm just being stubborn in holding onto Pitts vs. feeling like I'm getting offers I cannot refuse.

I'm a team stuck in the middle this year. I came in 2nd last year, made some big moves this summer with expecting to contend again, then ran into owning Rodgers/Watson/Akers - two now known situations but left me in tweener land and probably still there. Now that I also have Pitts, he's an interesting trade lever to add a few players at key positions that might hurt from the single TE killing people week to week, but overall increase in team strength or just to sit on it.

My initial reaction to the other owner was I wouldn't consider moving Pitts until I was sure I was out this year and if he's willing to wait, we can deal then. He's good with that. It buys me some time, but not sure I can ever get the value I should out of a player like that AND because he's yet to take the pro field and everyone's sure he'll score 85 TDs this year.

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56 minutes ago, Jayded said:

and everyone's sure he'll score 85 TDs this year.

That’s just conservative groupthink. His ceiling is much higher. 

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6 hours ago, Jayded said:

Thanks for the input. Still trying to avoid the Assistant Coach-like feedback, but I'll add a few more details that feel like they do fit here.

I traded for Pitts this summer and it took me about a year to talk the other owner into it. Now, I have the target on my back since our league is TE Premium and Pitts is the current darling. I've seen a few suggested offers that make me question if I'm just being stubborn in holding onto Pitts vs. feeling like I'm getting offers I cannot refuse.

I'm a team stuck in the middle this year. I came in 2nd last year, made some big moves this summer with expecting to contend again, then ran into owning Rodgers/Watson/Akers - two now known situations but left me in tweener land and probably still there. Now that I also have Pitts, he's an interesting trade lever to add a few players at key positions that might hurt from the single TE killing people week to week, but overall increase in team strength or just to sit on it.

My initial reaction to the other owner was I wouldn't consider moving Pitts until I was sure I was out this year and if he's willing to wait, we can deal then. He's good with that. It buys me some time, but not sure I can ever get the value I should out of a player like that AND because he's yet to take the pro field and everyone's sure he'll score 85 TDs this year.

 

My take, as someone who just dealt Hopkins for 1.08 (Pitts) and a 2nd is this: 

You draft/deal for Pitts because he's an anchor player. He is a cornerstone of your Dynasty team roster for the next decade. The next TGonz, Kelce, hopefully healthier Kittle. 

And you expect to have that roster advantage for quite some time. So in light of the bolded comment, I wouldn't even entertain any short-term philosophy like that - especially in Pitts rookie year when we don't even know what we have. 

And sure - you could say "one in the hand better than 2 in the bush" and deal for what right now is that "85 TD, 3000 yard" value that people are putting on him, but IF Pitts is the truth, and IF he comes out with a rookie campaign around 70/900/9, you won't ever want to deal him. 

To borrow from baseball, the VORP is too high. Simply put, you'll never be able to get a replacement Pitts after dealing away Pitts. 

So IMO, anyone who drafted or obtained Pitts this year has no reason to move Pitts. Even if a team is in full rebuild (which mine might be if things break bad) you deal everyone older than 27 and build your next gen roster around Pitts. He's potentially that sort of difference maker. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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On 8/2/2021 at 6:07 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

My take, as someone who just dealt Hopkins for 1.08 (Pitts) and a 2nd is this: 

You draft/deal for Pitts because he's an anchor player. He is a cornerstone of your Dynasty team roster for the next decade. The next TGonz, Kelce, hopefully healthier Kittle. 

And you expect to have that roster advantage for quite some time. So in light of the bolded comment, I wouldn't even entertain any short-term philosophy like that - especially in Pitts rookie year when we don't even know what we have. 

And sure - you could say "one in the hand better than 2 in the bush" and deal for what right now is that "85 TD, 3000 yard" value that people are putting on him, but IF Pitts is the truth, and IF he comes out with a rookie campaign around 70/900/9, you won't ever want to deal him. 

To borrow from baseball, the VORP is too high. Simply put, you'll never be able to get a replacement Pitts after dealing away Pitts. 

So IMO, anyone who drafted or obtained Pitts this year has no reason to move Pitts. Even if a team is in full rebuild (which mine might be if things break bad) you deal everyone older than 27 and build your next gen roster around Pitts. He's potentially that sort of difference maker. 

Sorry for the delay, but wanted to thank you for the feedback. It's easy to get sucked into the trading aspect of this game as I love trading as almost half of the fun for me.

Where I got caught is the initial offer was an ok offer for Pitts (Kyren Williams + Michael Mayer + 2022 1st Devy + Philip Lindsay) I started to think of how to counter because I'm almost always game for a deal. That's when I stopped and made the post in this thread because my gut reaction at that point was to ask for Kyren Williams + Michael Mayer + Mike Gesicki + ???? for me to even consider doing it. And then I realized maybe I shouldn't consider anything as what would I hope to get out of Pitts other than more pieces elsewhere if I believe he can be what many think he can be as a dynasty TE anchor on my team. I like Gesick and I think Mayer is likely to be the next closest thing to Pitts as a dynasty TE, but he's a "maybe Pitts" vs. Pitts is Pitts.

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On 7/27/2021 at 9:33 PM, Dope said:

Let him suffer with no RB imo. lololol

But then again he rejected all my offers too to give him a very good rb for one of his very good wr's

 I offered my late ish 23’ 1st for Robinson straight up and was rejected with no counter. 

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28 minutes ago, bmsarvis said:

 I offered my late ish 23’ 1st for Robinson straight up and was rejected with no counter. 

That's a bold statement

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38 minutes ago, Jayded said:

Sorry for the delay, but wanted to thank you for the feedback. It's easy to get sucked into the trading aspect of this game as I love trading as almost half of the fun for me.

Where I got caught is the initial offer was an ok offer for Pitts (Kyren Williams + Michael Mayer + 2022 1st Devy + Philip Lindsay) I started to think of how to counter because I'm almost always game for a deal. That's when I stopped and made the post in this thread because my gut reaction at that point was to ask for Kyren Williams + Michael Mayer + Mike Gesicki + ???? for me to even consider doing it. And then I realized maybe I shouldn't consider anything as what would I hope to get out of Pitts other than more pieces elsewhere if I believe he can be what many think he can be as a dynasty TE anchor on my team. I like Gesick and I think Mayer is likely to be the next closest thing to Pitts as a dynasty TE, but he's a "maybe Pitts" vs. Pitts is Pitts.

No worries - and I get it. After making 5-6 trades to rebuild my dynasty roster, I was sitting there jonesing to make another trade. 

I scoured the league rosters looking for that one more piece. 

trading is fun& addictive. But like any addiction, you have to know when to pump the brakes & say, “ok, I’m done. Imma go with what I have and see how things go”

so I’m now planning on playing ‘21 as-is. If my team exceeds expectations I’ll stand pat & go Into 2022 looking to compete again. 

but if I’m starting out 2-6 or something noncompetitive, I’ll wait to see who’s making a playoff push & deal away Carson, ARob, Mike Williams, maybe even CEdmonds, and see if I can get 1st round picks (or more) for all 3 and maybe a couple 2nds for CE from a team that hopes to win it all. 

Then I’ll approach 2022 as a tank season & try to get a higher 1st round pick in 2023.  In this scenario I’d hope to have as many as 4 1st rounders in 2023, if not a little more. That’s gonna depend on how good those 3 aging assets & Edmonds are performing in 2021, of course, but it’s good to have a long-term plan.

and back to the player in question, Pitts is most definitely part of my long-term plans. So at this point I’d deem him untouchable. 

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I'm also a fan of seeing the intention behind a deal and trying to strike smaller rather than outright rejecting too. I'd rather keep the trade conversations alive and keep those owners coming back as the season evolves. I took that owner interested in Pitts and noted I was still interested in Lindsay because I'm a Texans fan, believe he'll be a decent flex player, and my RBs are garbage because of lack of depth behind Akers.

Did this deal : Philip Lindsay for Yannick Ngakoue

I traded for Yannick before last season and he was that awful inconsistent guy who I never could pick the correct week to play him. There are more consistent IDP guys, I traded and drafted for those, and so I traded away Yannick and his name appeal to give me some more depth where I had none.

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I know this pops up every once in a while, and I’ll own that I haven’t kept up with this thread very well over the offseason. 

How do you know when it’s time to sell an elite WR, and can you ever get enough in return? I won my superflex PPR dynasty league last year, but the Watson situation has cast quite a pall over my team this year. My three primary WRs are Diggs (28 in November), Tyreek (28 this coming offseason) and Aiyuk (plenty young). 

Without a strong second QB and without draft capital to get one (after pushing chips in last year) I’m thinking I’ll end up wearing it this year unless the Watson situation magically resolves itself. 

So is it time to sell Diggs and Hill in this situation (basically wasting the age 27 season) or do we assume these elite WRs break traditional aging curves and have another 4-5 seasons (till age 31-32 say) of high end production?

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12 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

Without a strong second QB and without draft capital to get one (after pushing chips in last year) I’m thinking I’ll end up wearing it this year unless the Watson situation magically resolves itself. 

So is it time to sell Diggs and Hill in this situation (basically wasting the age 27 season) or do we assume these elite WRs break traditional aging curves and have another 4-5 seasons (till age 31-32 say) of high end production?

It's an easier question when the 2 aging assets aren't 2 of the top 3 WRs in football. 

I dealt Hopkins for pick 1.08 & a mid-second, but ONLY because Pitts was on the board (SF, but that's still past his ADP) - Hopkins is 30 this year, and while I'm sure he's going to continue to be productive, I'm not as confident that Kyler Murray is as good a passer as Hopkins is a receiver. And while 30 isn't old, it's closer to old than young, and who knows how long he's going to be elite. The last thing I want is to hold for a year too long  in Dynasty, 

That said, I don't see either Hill or Diggs as past their prime. BUT, if you start to see your team not competing for lack of depth in other areas, it might not be the worst idea to shop one of them for a QB, or for a lesser WR/QB oombo in return. 

And if you're really wanting to rebuild, I'm certain HIll/Diggs could fetch a handsome price in future draft picks/younger players on the rise. 

So yeah - very difficult question to answer. The ideal time to deal them is while they are still perceived as elite, and before your trade partners can say things like, "well, yeah but he's 29" in negotiations. They won't be getting more valuable next year, that's for sure. So it all depends on your team's immediate need & your plans long-term. If the rest of your roster is looking weaker, then maybe it's time for a full rebuild. 

But that said, it's awfully hard to not try to win one more year while you have that duo. Just know you'll get less for them next year, and even less the year after. 

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26 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

I know this pops up every once in a while, and I’ll own that I haven’t kept up with this thread very well over the offseason. 

How do you know when it’s time to sell an elite WR, and can you ever get enough in return? I won my superflex PPR dynasty league last year, but the Watson situation has cast quite a pall over my team this year. My three primary WRs are Diggs (28 in November), Tyreek (28 this coming offseason) and Aiyuk (plenty young). 

Without a strong second QB and without draft capital to get one (after pushing chips in last year) I’m thinking I’ll end up wearing it this year unless the Watson situation magically resolves itself. 

So is it time to sell Diggs and Hill in this situation (basically wasting the age 27 season) or do we assume these elite WRs break traditional aging curves and have another 4-5 seasons (till age 31-32 say) of high end production?

 

That's a wicked tough question. I'd look at Adam Harstad's articles about aging and dynasty (you can find them in his recent Twitter history). Think of aging and production less as a continuous line and think of it more like an actuary would, like as a series of cliffs each year, whereby one has a percentage chance of falling off completely (like dying) than one has of a continuous decline. 

That's the abstract answer. The real answer is that Diggs and Hill are in their prime and I would not sell until thirty. But you are running risk as they age and the probability increases each year that they fall off and never really recover. My layperson's opinion: I think they're still very young. That's me. YMMV. If you're playing in two-year windows, then they're hitting their prime and are worth a hold, IMO. Almost without flinching about their age, IMO. 

Edited by woodstock
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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

It's an easier question when the 2 aging assets aren't 2 of the top 3 WRs in football. 

I dealt Hopkins for pick 1.08 & a mid-second, but ONLY because Pitts was on the board (SF, but that's still past his ADP) - Hopkins is 30 this year, and while I'm sure he's going to continue to be productive, I'm not as confident that Kyler Murray is as good a passer as Hopkins is a receiver. And while 30 isn't old, it's closer to old than young, and who knows how long he's going to be elite. The last thing I want is to hold for a year too long  in Dynasty, 

That said, I don't see either Hill or Diggs as past their prime. BUT, if you start to see your team not competing for lack of depth in other areas, it might not be the worst idea to shop one of them for a QB, or for a lesser WR/QB oombo in return. 

And if you're really wanting to rebuild, I'm certain HIll/Diggs could fetch a handsome price in future draft picks/younger players on the rise. 

So yeah - very difficult question to answer. The ideal time to deal them is while they are still perceived as elite, and before your trade partners can say things like, "well, yeah but he's 29" in negotiations. They won't be getting more valuable next year, that's for sure. So it all depends on your team's immediate need & your plans long-term. If the rest of your roster is looking weaker, then maybe it's time for a full rebuild. 

But that said, it's awfully hard to not try to win one more year while you have that duo. Just know you'll get less for them next year, and even less the year after. 


HSG, I respectfully but vehemently disagree. With those three receivers, you're an instant contender. There is no rebuild there unless things are drastic. Diggs and Hill shouldn't be shopped for a QB in a 1 QB almost ever, simply because of the positional VORP, unless you can get like Mahomes and another Aiyuk-esque receiver or something like that. I just wouldn't do it. But that's the beauty of this game. People can disagree. I just don't see the premise as sound (the premise being that he might need a rebuild). An overwhelming amount of the time with that roster, you're a contender. 

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Just now, woodstock said:


HSG, I respectfully but vehemently disagree. With those three receivers, you're an instant contender.

What are you vehemently disagreeing with? I said exactly this in the next sentence. 

I was just laying out the options, not saying one way or another what they should do. 

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3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

What are you vehemently disagreeing with? I said exactly this in the next sentence. 

I was just laying out the options, not saying one way or another what they should do. 


Disagreeing with the premise the he even might need a full rebuild, which is exactly what you said. Pretty clear what I highlighted, no? 

You didn't say exactly that at all. You called it a duo and hedged by saying that he'll get less for him. I think that sells Aiyuk short and the premise that he might need a "full rebuild" is faulty. 

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7 minutes ago, woodstock said:


Disagreeing with the premise the he even might need a full rebuild, which is exactly what you said. Pretty clear what I highlighted, no? 

 

You missed the context of what you highlighted. I said it might be good to see where his team is at once we get into the season. 

That's relevant to considering such a move. 

7 minutes ago, woodstock said:

You didn't say exactly that at all. You called it a duo and hedged by saying that he'll get less for him. I think that sells Aiyuk short and the premise that he might need a "full rebuild" is faulty. 

That isn't at all what I said. Not remotely. 

He was asking when the right time to sell was. I said it has to do with his overall team, whether he's still competitive, and if he feels he needs to rebuild he could fetch great value for them. But after this year, at age 28-29, and after that, at age 29-30, he's not going to get as much. 

You seem to be divining things from my post that I didn't say.  I didn't make the premise that he should do a full rebuild. At all. I said he should evaluate as the season goes & determine whether that's the case. 

You are certainly free to say that no such rebuild would be necessary, but at present being short a QB in a SF league makes it difficult to compete. 

But I have not suggested that he engage in a rebuild. Sorry if that's the impression you have - it wasn't what I said he should do. in fact, the OP & I have been chatting by PM, and what I suggested there was to deal future picks for a young QB and continue to compete with this team for 2021 & likely 2022 and THEN take a look at dealing his aging assets. 

In my post above I was merely taking a mile-high approach and suggesting all the  possibilities. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

You missed the context of what you highlighted. I said it might be good to see where his team is at once we get into the season. 

That's relevant to considering such a move. 

That isn't at all what I said. Not remotely. 

He was asking when the right time to sell was. I said it has to do with his overall team, whether he's still competitive, and if he feels he needs to rebuild he could fetch great value for them. But after this year, at age 28-29, and after that, at age 29-30, he's not going to get as much. 

You seem to be divining things from my post that I didn't say.  I didn't make the premise that he should do a full rebuild. At all. I said he should evaluate as the season goes & determine whether that's the case. 

You are certainly free to say that no such rebuild would be necessary, but at present being short a QB in a SF league makes it difficult to compete. 

But I have not suggested that he engage in a rebuild. Sorry if that's the impression you have - it wasn't what I said he should do. in fact, the OP & I have been chatting by PM, and what I suggested there was to deal future picks for a young QB and continue to compete with this team for 2021 & likely 2022 and THEN take a look at dealing his aging assets. 

In my post above I was merely taking a mile-high approach and suggesting all the  possibilities. 


Well, that's one way to go about it. Superflex certainly changes the dynamic for QBs. I was assuming one QB in my above post and said so, which isn't your fault, but mine. 

I still think having Watson should be added into the mix, and that he should proceed selling off two of the top three receivers in fantasy last year with extreme caution. 

That's just me. 

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10 minutes ago, woodstock said:


Well, that's one way to go about it. Superflex certainly changes the dynamic for QBs. I was assuming one QB in my above post and said so, which isn't your fault, but mine. 

I still think having Watson should be added into the mix, and that he should proceed selling off two of the top three receivers in fantasy last year with extreme caution. 

That's just me. 

 

Yeah, no worries. OP didn't say in his post - I only know from our private chat. Watson is the fart in the elevator that is his team at the moment, and what has him questioning how to approach things. 

I actually urged caution, and suggested using future draft equity to at least temporarily replace Watson. If he can get average weekly performance from a low-end or rookie QB, it'll help bridge the gap to where he knows what's up with Watson. 

One challenge is his RBs are kind of murky, too. A lot of committee types, not a ton of upside this year at least. His team is far from complete besides potentially losing Watson, which adds intrigue to the "is a rebuild in order". 

But I completely agree with you that with Tyreek Hill & Diggs, plus some bailing wire, duct tape & spit, he should be able to compete.  But he does need another QB, if only for the BYEs, and he doesn't have a ton of depth to deal from. That's why dealing a 2022 pick makes sense, if it can net him a rookie passer who will play this year. But if that doesn't come to pass, it may well be that dealing an elite WR to get a semi-elite QB & WR back wouldn't be the worst option. 

That's just how I look at it. It's not easy to remain competitive. OP is going through a similar situation I went through. Consolidating assets to get the most championship-ready team together - and then what? At some point you have to deal to stay competitive, or you end up stuck. If he holds both Diggs & Hill until they're 30, how's he going to rebuild then? 

Ideally he'd have the depth to do that. Heck, I didn't want to deal Hopkins this offseason, but I was able to get what I considered top value for him, so I made the move. If Pitts works out, I have a stud TE for a decade, and I used the 2nd round pick to get Chase Edmonds. Is my team better as a result? Time will tell, but that's certainly more value than I'll get out of Hopkins when his age starts with a 3 next year. :shrug: 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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I did say superflex, But wasn’t very explicit about it. 

It’s just such a tricky situation given Watson. Normal Watson with Herbert and those 3 WR I’m taking my chances and pushing more chips in, but without Watson … everything in flux.

My suspicion is I can wait a year to make this call. Davante Adams is a year older than those two, and I’d imagine he still fetches a pretty penny in dynasty trades. 

The exception to all of this is if I can flip Diggs or Hill for Ceedee Lamb or the like. I’m not saying it’s likely, but that’s the type of move I’d consider. Question then is whether to sell Diggs or Tyreek. My suspicion is Diggs ages very well given he wins with route running and wins at the catch point. Tyreek is just so much faster than everyone. But is he that fast at 29?

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What’s the current value of Parris Campbell, especially now with the Wentz injury and Campbell’s own injury history?

I’m missing that dart throw young WR3/4/5 on my team and made a pass at the owner for Campbell or Ruggs and he’s ok discussing Campbell. 

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6 minutes ago, Jayded said:

What’s the current value of Parris Campbell, especially now with the Wentz injury and Campbell’s own injury history?

I’m missing that dart throw young WR3/4/5 on my team and made a pass at the owner for Campbell or Ruggs and he’s ok discussing Campbell. 

In terms of draft picks or players?

Draft picks I would say a 3rd rounder.  Most would want to hold on to him though so he doesn't break out on someone else's team after holding onto him for 3 years.

Players- In the range of backup RBs or maybe some non broken out Wrs yet like Reagor, bowden, Slayton,.

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54 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

In terms of draft picks or players?

Draft picks I would say a 3rd rounder.  Most would want to hold on to him though so he doesn't break out on someone else's team after holding onto him for 3 years.

Players- In the range of backup RBs or maybe some non broken out Wrs yet like Reagor, bowden, Slayton,.

 

Yeah I wouldn't sell him for a third, as you stated anyways. But if someone wanted him as a throw in to put a trade over the top that I really wanted to do, I'd do it.

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2 hours ago, Jayded said:

What’s the current value of Parris Campbell, especially now with the Wentz injury and Campbell’s own injury history?

I’m missing that dart throw young WR3/4/5 on my team and made a pass at the owner for Campbell or Ruggs and he’s ok discussing Campbell. 

I'd try to flip a 2 for Mooney.

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2 hours ago, Jayded said:

What’s the current value of Parris Campbell, especially now with the Wentz injury and Campbell’s own injury history?

I’m missing that dart throw young WR3/4/5 on my team and made a pass at the owner for Campbell or Ruggs and he’s ok discussing Campbell. 

 

For me, textbook example of a roster clogger. I would rather be leaner at WR with set starters and 1/2 backups and take my dart throws at RB.

In a 12 team PPR SF I traded Campbell, Michel, Hooper + my 2022 3rd for a 2022 2nd. The open roster spots were valuable for me.

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1 hour ago, sheerterror said:

I'd try to flip a 2 for Mooney.

Had him and traded him away last year on a run to the playoffs with a bunch of players going both directions. I still got some good young value, but he'd be nice to have at this point. Oh well, them's the breaks in this game.

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3 hours ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

 

Yeah I wouldn't sell him for a third, as you stated anyways. But if someone wanted him as a throw in to put a trade over the top that I really wanted to do, I'd do it.

As a Campbell owner, I agree with this. He showed some significant upside when healthy last year. Unless it was during the rookie draft and a 2nd rounder I really liked was still available early third, I wouldn’t sell for a 3. 

2022 2nd … maybe. To me it’s more I’ve held this whole time and don’t want to sell for an unknown quantity when I think Campbell can really play. He just needs some injury luck. 

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8 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

 

2022 2nd … maybe. To me it’s more I’ve held this whole time and don’t want to sell for an unknown quantity when I think Campbell can really play. He just needs some injury luck. 

Was gonna say, dude’s a legit talent but can’t stay on the field. 

I believe Pittman is destined for WR1 status in Indy, and it might be this year. That pushes TY to WR2 & relegates Parris to whatever scraps are left, maybe equal to the TEs in that offense. 

I’m assuming Wentz comes back sooner than later of course, in which case they should have some semblance of a passing game. 

If/When TY moves on to greener pastures, it well could be Pittman / Parris on the outside. In which case you’ll have held him for years to get borderline WR2 production out of him.  

If I had Parris I’d be trying to sell him.

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Except I see Campbell as a dominant slot receiver that essentially renders the TEs redundant. There’s no dominant TE to take away short-middle targets. 

I understand it’s a risk to hold him as if he’s hurt again, can pretty much write off getting anything for him. That said, I don’t honestly believe I could get a better dart in exchange for Campbell, especially in light of the Wentz injury. 

For what I’m guessing others would pay, I’d rather just hold. If he put a big deal over the line, sure - no problem. 

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