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I've been staring at those 4 names for 2 minutes and still can't really decide.
Funny, I'd have Parker first but really can't argue well for any definitive ranking. They're the same tier.
The last time I tried to do dynasty rankings was last January, so we have about half of the regular season played now which certainly changes things now. Also my last ranking did not include any rookie players.
I don't typically do comprehensive rankings, but I would probably rank tiers something like this, also in approximate order within tiers:
That is 14. After that, as you noted there is a large group that is IMO more difficult to separate. There is a large age/mileage disparity between most of the players I named above and the likes of Martin, Ingram, Hyde, Miller, and McCoy. How to rank that older group will vary based upon one's opinion of the importance of age.
- Tier 1 - Elliott (22), Gurley (23)
- Tier 2 - Bell (25), Fournette (22), Hunt (22), David Johnson (26)
- Tier 3 - Mixon (21), Cook (22), Kamara (22)
- Tier 4 - McCaffrey (21), Howard (23), Gordon (24), Freeman (25), Henry (23)
I suppose I could see Ajayi at #15 given your bolded statement combined with his age (24). But I have low confidence in that ranking. I also know another rookie class gets injected after 9 more regular season games, and I expect at least a few rookies (e.g., Barkley, Chubb, Adams, Harris, Guice, Love) to inject into the tiers I laid out above, pushing others including Ajayi down.
The original question that led to this tangent was how Ajayi compared to Mixon, Cook, and Kamara. I have all three of them in my top 9, and Ajayi in a gaggle that falls between 15-20+. Hence my initial reaction.
Yeah I've never fixed that error.Gurley way higher. He's in a young, upcoming, offense and doesn't have the concerns of Bell and Zeke
Edit - Antonio Bryant lower
I appreciate your detailed post. On this quoted part, it is clear that you use a different methodology than many people. Most people need to have a single ranking at a position, not multiple rankings, such as multiple RB rankings. I suspect that you essentially have that yourself, since everyone who plays dynasty is forced to make judgments in drafts, trades, free agent moves, and starting lineups. This seems to be shown by the last part I quoted here.Biabreakable said:
I am convinced that it is important to take strong positions on players early in their careers, since waiting often means you miss out on players. This perspective is shown by my ranking of 6 rookies in the top 10 of the rankings I posted above. I'm sure I will be wrong about some of them, but everyone who does fantasy football rankings misses on players. Taking a strong position can help it to count more when you are right, though.Biabreakable said:
I think rankings are hard. So while I will rank players at times and use different methods while doing so, when it actually comes to drafting players or making trades, I don't make those decisions purely off of rankings, even rankings I have made myself.
I bought Ingram in the 2015 preseason (age 26) for the 1.10 pick (D. Parker).
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No I wouldn't give much more than a 2nd round pick for him at this point, but he is worth pretty much the same to me as Ajayi, Hyde and Lamar Miller as you see these RB are all in the same tier for me, Ingram at the end of that tier.
I wasn't trying to insulting. Sometimes stealing has a bad connotation. I just meant that id take any of those 3 guys in an instant for Jay.Biabreakable said:
Thats definitely possible. The knee does seem to have affected him this year in a couple games and may be something that he struggles with the rest of his career.
Agree 100% on Cook. But Cook played well until he got hurt, and his injury should not affect him long term. IMO that is different than a sample of 7 games in which a featured RB consistently disappoints, as Ajayi has done. YMMV.
I agree its different.
Hahahaha...Ajayi looked hella good on that TD run.
To be honest I don't think the ball crossed the plane but the refs are all Eagles in this game.
I agree it probably didn't but not conclusive enough to overturn. Call on the field was going to stand there whichever way it went.
Close enough I guess.
Ingram has a good ball security track record. One game won't change much, especially considering that Kamara fumbled the following week. I'd give up a late first without much thought.
I don't know that we have enough information to make a good call right now. The "career ending" whispers really scare me, but I don't know how valid they are. Before those rumors, he'd have been in my top 5. Today, he falls somewhere after Rodgers, Wilson, Dak, Wentz, and Watson for me. I've soured on Carr and Winston, so perhaps I'd tade them for Luck, assuming I had another startable QB on the roster.
This seems about right. Luck is a high risk / reward going forward. A lot of how you view Luck comes down to your view of risk. The good news for Luck owners is that it is fairly easy to acquire a startable QB in most leagues.
I remember at his high point seeing deals rejected that offered multiple first round picks. Heck, I had a strong team with a QB need and I thought about offering the house for him and now I'm glad I didn't. As far as rookie pick value I wouldn't trade more than a late round 1 rookie pick for him today and I would have to have a QB need to consider this.
One of my better offseason moves, in hindsight, was moving Luck for a couple 1sts. One of them is now a lock for top 3.
Speaking of Luck, what are the thoughts on his health next year. I can give Brees for Luck ... Trubisky is my only qb, but I am playing for next year at this point.
I honestly have no idea. I don't know how anyone can feel confident one way or the other. Despite that, I'd gladly trade Brees for him, especially if I'm playing for next season. The upside is through the rough and the cost is very low.
That seems like a no brainer to me. You are taking advantage of Brees' name value here. Brees is a low end QB1 at this point, QB12 over the last 14 games, outscored by Tyrod Taylor. Meh, I'd roll the dice on Luck easily for that.
Thanks to this post, every Brees owner in dynasty leagues just sprained their fingers on their keyboards hammering out this very offer to Luck owners. #soyouresayingtheresachance
During the preseason I somehow managed to move him and Moncrief as a package for a 2018 1st & 2nd, Stafford and Juju. I remember being happy with the deal at the time, but now I'm amazed at how well I did. I got lucky for sure. The main reason I did it was because my team needed some help. If I felt I was a strong contender I might not have. To answer your question I'd say no he is definitely not a top 5 QB. But he certainly could make it back there to elite status. If someone wanted to buy low now I certainly wouldn't criticize the move. But I would temper expectations.
I haven't really looked into Williams' back issues, which I'd do before acting on this statement, but I lean Williams. I think he was the better prospect coming in.
I'll throw out another one. Chris Thompson with a "now" value of 1. Thompson is currently RB8 in PPG. His "now" value is half of DeMarco Murray's and 1/3rd of Adrian Peterson's even though he is handily outscoring both of them (even if we only count Peterson's PPG since he went to Arizona).
I've got him rostered in a couple PPR leagues, and would move him for a 3rd. I do like him as an end of the bench flier, but give me the pick and the roster spot.
I never see wow moments like i see from Goff, Dak, Trubisky.......i do see some lucky plays......but I'm not going to focus on Wentz because it's like trying to tell people Hunt is not as good as people think after his 3rd game of the season. It's pointless at this time. The tape isn't the best young QB in the league tape but I'm not going to be able to convince you right now.
I'd be looking to trade Rodgers for Goff + something big and i'd think i was getting the more valuable QB in the deal. I have him at #2 behind only Dak.
I am in no position to speak for us.
I own Rodgers & tried to get Goff, but was shot down. He wants Juju & Rodgers for Kelce & Goff. I already have Gronk.
I think that is still worth considering.
