FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
You know I've always liked your insight and respected your opinions around here.
Way to ruin it.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Way to ruin it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Here are a few guys I'm buying and selling right now.
Buying:
Alvin Kamara - Kamara is a hard guy to buy right now, but I still like him more than the market. I'd be willing to move guys like Gordon, Freeman, or Cooper for him.
Gerald Everett - I really liked Everett as a prospect, and his ceiling is high in the young and explosive Rams offense. He's the one guy I own in all of my leagues, as of last week.
Will Fuller - He really surprised me and has looked good this season. He's a tough cover with Hopkins getting so much attention. I'm buying at a discount now that Watson is out.
Selling:
Keenan Allen - I'm not convinced the NFL wasn't right to let him slip to the 3rd round. When Allen is out, his replacements put up pretty comparable numbers. He's looked completely ordinary this year. He's still getting by on his devy hype and a good rookie season.
Dez Bryant - I still think Dez is 90-95% of his 2014-self. I think he's a fantasy #1 in a number of other situations. But it's just not working with Dak. I wrote his early struggles off as the result of a brutal schedule, and expected his production to rise as the Cowboys O returned to form. It hasn't. He still has plenty of actual value, but it doesn't measure up to his name value.
Marcus Mariota - I was really high on Mariota at one point, but am starting to wonder if he's a better NFL QB than fantasy asset. I think it's reasonable to expect more production through the air than he's provided to this point in his career. I'm not selling low, but would add a substantial piece to turn him into Wentz, Wilson, Dak, Rodgers, or Watson. I'd happily sell for a late 1st.
Buying:
Alvin Kamara - Kamara is a hard guy to buy right now, but I still like him more than the market. I'd be willing to move guys like Gordon, Freeman, or Cooper for him.
Gerald Everett - I really liked Everett as a prospect, and his ceiling is high in the young and explosive Rams offense. He's the one guy I own in all of my leagues, as of last week.
Will Fuller - He really surprised me and has looked good this season. He's a tough cover with Hopkins getting so much attention. I'm buying at a discount now that Watson is out.
Selling:
Keenan Allen - I'm not convinced the NFL wasn't right to let him slip to the 3rd round. When Allen is out, his replacements put up pretty comparable numbers. He's looked completely ordinary this year. He's still getting by on his devy hype and a good rookie season.
Dez Bryant - I still think Dez is 90-95% of his 2014-self. I think he's a fantasy #1 in a number of other situations. But it's just not working with Dak. I wrote his early struggles off as the result of a brutal schedule, and expected his production to rise as the Cowboys O returned to form. It hasn't. He still has plenty of actual value, but it doesn't measure up to his name value.
Marcus Mariota - I was really high on Mariota at one point, but am starting to wonder if he's a better NFL QB than fantasy asset. I think it's reasonable to expect more production through the air than he's provided to this point in his career. I'm not selling low, but would add a substantial piece to turn him into Wentz, Wilson, Dak, Rodgers, or Watson. I'd happily sell for a late 1st.
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JFS171
Footballguy
Well what do I know? Production is production, to some extent. I will say I saw Carolina lining Funchess up tight to the formation (as if he was in a slot location) numerous times even when he was the only receiver to that side of the field. I certainly don't think that can hurt.JFS171 said:
His first TD was a screen pass where Miami only had 2 guys to his side of the field, and both were blocked well. He ran untouched to the end zone.
His second TD was down the field, back shoulder throw, where Funchess essentially cut off his route to jump inside of the corner toward the middle of the field. He made the catch in stride (though not with his hands if we're nitpicking) and galloped to the end zone.
For all of my concerns outlined above, he continues to produce and is being treated by the offense like he's a WR1. On the one hand, lack of separation skills would seem to be a problem for a WR. On the other, he's huge and seems to be winning 50/50 balls and "rising to the occasion" as he's getting WR1 treatment.
So ... now I'm more confused than ever, but I don't own him anywhere so I don't have to make any decision on him. I certainly wouldn't be paying what I presume are market rates for him.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Very nice list. Buying Fuller anywhere I can. He’s going pretty cheap compared to his potential imo. Love Kamara as well but he’s a hard buy right now. Guys aren’t selling from what I’ve seen.Concept Coop said:
Milkman
Footballguy
Def selling Allen and Dez........hate Mariota's situation but love the potential and his talent. Not high on the guys you are buying but to each his own. Like your sell list a lot though Def def trying to sell Dez right now......he's been a WR2 for almost 3 years but he's trading at WR1 prices in a lot of leagues.Concept Coop said:
I'd be targeting these players because I feel they are undervalued at this point.
Buying
Trubisky - He looks really good and that's in a terrible offense with only one decent weapon in the passing game and that guy is sitting on the sidelines most of the time (Cohen). You can get this guy off the WW in a lot of leagues of pay a late 2nd for him maybe even a 3rd.
Garoppolo - See what Matt Ryan did in this offense......Just pick him up off the WW in most leagues but if you have to trade for him it won't take much.
Cohen - The current coaching staff doesn't know how to use him right. New staff coming in next year.......PPR gold if he's used like Chris Thompson in Washington. He's better than Thompson.......
D. Forerman - Starting RB for Houston next year. Lots of scoring opportunities in that offense. Rare 3 down back. Plays soft for his size though and big off field risk. Still I'm buying because if he gets all the work in that offense next year he has league winner upside.
Trying to dump these players if I own them because they hold more value than they are really worth......
Selling
Dez - He got paid and has never been the same. Going on 3 years of meh.....but most people still value him like a WR1. He's not and he hasn't been for a while.
Graham - Hopefully he keeps scoring TD's like crazy and ends up a top 3 TE. He doesn't look even close to the old Jimmy when he's running routes. Would love to trade him at TE1 level......not sure where he's going to end up either.....
Diggs - He can't seem to stay healthy and he's quietly becoming the Teams #2 option in Minnesota. When both start Thielen has commanded over 2 more targets a game than Diggs. Thielen has 62 targets in those 7 games compared to 47 targets for Diggs over that same period. Thielen should age better too so the age difference, even though it's significant shouldn't be as huge as people think. This isn't to say Diggs is bad, he's not, just overvalued at this point and Thielen is undervalued. The gap is closing quickly though......if you can trade Diggs for Thielen + something you have to jump on that.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
What do you think is a good price? He is owned in all my leagues. The times I've gotten response to offers I get "I've owned him this long, I am holding." That was before the trade though. Not sure if the trade hurts or helps his value. I feel like I would have to give a 2nd and not willing to do that given the rookie QB next year will have more market value until they fail.
Zyphros
Footballguy
That's funny because I'd practically flip it around. Kamara is probably overvalued by the owner to me, just not a guy that I'd personally look to buy. Everett sure was a decent prospect and all but Goff doesn't feature TE's. I tend to disagree with people that it's more QB dependent than "scheme" dependent to feature a TE (Bradford is a great example that I like to use), so I'm not high on him. And Fuller I think just sucks that he's 1 dimensional and people will learn his trick and be useless in fantasy other than 1 or 2 bombs a year.Concept Coop said:
Everyone is usually quick to dismiss Keenan but it's not very often a player has dramatic injuries and comes back the same as before right away. This time next year we'll be talking about him as the ppr goldmine that he has been when he becomes fully healthy both physically and mentally. Dez on the other hand I wouldn't necessarily buy as his owners probably still hold him to the highest standards, but if there is a frustrated owner that see's an aging WR that doesn't perform the way he probably should, I'd happily buy for a late 1st. Roughly the same price I see guys like DT go who falls into that same category if I were a contender. Totally agree on Mariota though. Probably a mid tiered QB at this point with potential to be more but probably best to use him to upgrade to a true stud.
Milkman
Footballguy
When targeting someone I like I try not to mention them by name because my league mates automatically tighten up and don't want to get rid of the player I'm interested in. I just casually ask if their is anybody on my team they are interested in and then mention I need a QB. QB class coming out is overrated imo. I would have no issue giving up a 2nd for Garoppolo.......
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The guy that has him right now in one of my leagues I won't even try to trade with, he never trades with me, but Garoppolo is just sitting at the end of his bench.....a bad game or two and he'll drop him and I'll pick him up quick. Just like Dak last year after week two and Trubisky after week 5 this year......
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NeverEnough
Footballguy
Who would win in this deal?
A. Rodgers & Fuller for Goff & Kelce?
A. Rodgers & Fuller for Goff & Kelce?
Zyphros
Footballguy
I'd favor the Goff/kelce side right now with Rodgers hurt and all. If it's TE premium then it's an even easier choice for me.
JFS171
Footballguy
How are folks feeling about Kelvin Benjamin moving forward? He'll be 27 this offseason, and Buffalo isn't exactly a pass-happy scheme. But, he should be the primary target in the passing game and a red zone threat as well. In some respects, getting rid of Tyrod may help, but uncertainty at QB can't be a good thing.
He seems to be very cheap right now, though I've yet to buy, and perhaps my assessment of the marketplace isn't accurate.
He seems to be very cheap right now, though I've yet to buy, and perhaps my assessment of the marketplace isn't accurate.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
All reasonable points.
Everett: I think it's a bit early to say that Goff doesn't feature TEs, personally; It's his first year in a new system. If Everett is the weapon they had in mind when they drafted him--mentioning Jordan Reed by name--I think the targets will come.
Allen: We're 14 months removed from his ACL tear. I think it's okay to worry. I will say that I sold him short on his 2015 campaign. Looking now, he was very productive before the injury.
Dez: I'm all for buying for a late 1st. I think he's in the Crabtree, Baldwin, Tate, Thomas tier, but his name value places him outside of it too often.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I like Cohen as a buy also. What are you seeing in Trubisky? It's certainly hard to judge him when he doesn't have any weapons - so maybe it will come - but I'm not seeing anything special yet.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Except all but Thomas are outproducing him handily. It's one thing to spend on a 1st on an older WR that is producing like a WR1 as Crabtree, Baldwin, and Tate are. Dez is a WR3 (WR27 ppg). I suppose it's possible he bounces back but we've been waiting on that a long time and Dak just does not seem like the right type of QB for Dez's skillset.
His trade value is predicated 100% on his name.
Milkman
Footballguy
Trubisky was turning water into wine this past weekend.
1. He made several throws that made me say wow.
2. He was sacked repeatedly.
3. His WR are nothing great and dropped all kinds of passes.
4. His coaching staff sucks.
Buy him where you can now. He's getting a new coaching staff. His receivers can only get better. Hopefully they improve their OL.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
He was a WR2 coming into last week, and it's hard to blame him (or Dak) for what happened on Sunday. I think we're seeing his floor and it's higher than a lot of the 26 guys ahead of him; same with his ceiling. I respect your call - I've certainly come around to your line of thinking on the matter in the last 4 weeks or so - but I still feel good buying him for a late 1st. If the connection with Dak doesn't improve, he's an affordable cut after next season. He's still very talented and would bounce back nicely in plenty of situations.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Anyone have any DWatson deals?
Guy in my 14 team leagues wants 2 1sts for him.
Seems steep, but maybe U am wrong.
Guy in my 14 team leagues wants 2 1sts for him.
Seems steep, but maybe U am wrong.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
No, it's start 1. I own Luck, Big Ben, and Trubisky, but kicking tires on Watson as his owner #2 seed but only has Cutler and Tyrod so was lookng for Ben and 2 #1s for Watson and ESanders . Don't need Watson for that.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Thoughts on Devante Parker and Sammy Watkins?
Prett even dynasty value at the moment IMO ... but they may be trending in opposite directions going forward.
Thinking now may be the time to buy Watkins.
Prett even dynasty value at the moment IMO ... but they may be trending in opposite directions going forward.
Thinking now may be the time to buy Watkins.
joey
Footballguy
As a Watkins owner, I think he's a hold but not a buy.
It hasn't clicked for him on 2 teams now, with his current one on a Greatest Show on Turf pace where he's seeing no love. Something ain't right and I wouldn't want that problem on my team if I had the choice.
Zyphros
Footballguy
This is where my bias comes into play but I'd never buy either guy unless it was for a 2nd round pick or something dirt cheap that I could flip right away. Parker is nothing without garbage time stat padding and Watkins I've never liked because he's all hype which leads to everyone constantly overvaluing him.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I really like both of these players based on college evaluations of them.
Both have been disappointing performers that I am starting to accept that I have been too high on. I haven't seen either play enough this year to be sure what the problem may be.
I did see the first half of the Rams game and Watkins seemed to be having issues with his foot still. Not sure if it is mental or physical but I saw him quit on a play where it seemed that his foot was hurting him. Parker had the ankle injury.
You may be right that they are buys but I don't have the same bullish confidence in them that I had at the beginning of the season.
Personally I think you ripped him off in major way. Fournette’s an elite talent and Ajayi’s knees could go at any time.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
What's the consensus on Alex Collins' value? The Collins owner in 1 of my PPR leagues wants a 2018 1st (Likely late & not as valuable as we do also have developmental picks) plus McGuire for him. Is that the norm on Collins trades?
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Native
Footballguy
Anyone sell high on Aaron Jones? Between Rodgers injury, Jones injury, and Montgomerys mini-resurgance, his value for this year is shot -which automatically dampens his prospects and momentum for next year.
For those looking for benchmarks, I traded him at his peak (along with Engram and Allen Robinson) for Kelce, Kamara, and Corey Davis.
For those looking for benchmarks, I traded him at his peak (along with Engram and Allen Robinson) for Kelce, Kamara, and Corey Davis.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I sold him a few weeks ago for Clay/2nd (2TE league), so it might be the value of a late 1st but I highly doubt anyone would pay it. I was a contender but needed a TE, not a RB. As for future value I don't think he has much. I can easily see the Ravens bringing a RB in the draft to help that room. He's nothing special.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I love Engram, but the gap between Kamara/Davis and Jones/Arob is so much greater than the extra 4 years Engram gives you over Kelce. Kelce and Kamara will be winning leagues this year.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Why can't Derrick Henry beat out an old, gimpy Demarco Murray?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Sigh. Good question.
As I have said before the situation reminds me of Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones. The old vet is just more versatile and reliable than young buck.
I still like Henry a lot, but he is really too tall for a RB. Will always be a big target for defenders and his size makes it a bit more difficult to run between the tackles consistently.
Milkman
Footballguy
I've been a seller for a while. Was high on him coming out but i just haven't seen anything since he came in the league.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Sadly I find myself in the same mentality. I only have him in one league and I'll hold, but while I was trying to acquire before the season, he's nowhere near my buy list now. But I'll still cheer for him (roll tide and go Titans!)
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'd still pay a late first, personally. Maybe even a mid most years, but I really like this draft class.
His combine really surprised me. Some of his better runs really surprise me as well. He's more nimble than you would expect. He gets to his top gear faster than you would expect. He is a big target for defenders and he doesn't quite have the power his frame would suggest. But I do think he'd be a very solid 2 down back. But it's a huge red flag that they don't trust him in that role, and instead are opting for this version of Murray, who looks awful, even in short yardage situations.
I liked Henry a lot more than Hyde coming into the season. After acquiring Hyde as "icing" in a deal, I'm looking to flip. I go to propose a 1-for-1 swap, but just couldn't do it. Maybe the staff just doesn't see him as a top back?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think I still need to see Henry as a starter, getting the majority of the carries to fairly evaluate him.
Too many of his games have been something around 10 carries, with mixed results. Some times he does well with that, other times not.
There really aren't many games where he hasn't shared time with Murray to evaluate.
I still think he is a high tier two RB where I ranked him as a rookie prospect, I have reservations about him being a tier one RB. He has some games that certainly look like he could be a top 12 guy, but I doubt he can sustain that level of performance over a full season. So really my outlook regarding him hasn't changed. His chance to become the starter is being delayed a bit longer than I had hoped however.
Too many of his games have been something around 10 carries, with mixed results. Some times he does well with that, other times not.
There really aren't many games where he hasn't shared time with Murray to evaluate.
I still think he is a high tier two RB where I ranked him as a rookie prospect, I have reservations about him being a tier one RB. He has some games that certainly look like he could be a top 12 guy, but I doubt he can sustain that level of performance over a full season. So really my outlook regarding him hasn't changed. His chance to become the starter is being delayed a bit longer than I had hoped however.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I do think Henry is better than Hyde who I ranked as a high tier two post NFL draft. To me they are close to the same talent level. I just like Henry a little bit more. Hyde obviously in a better situation to produce right now.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I agree with you in a vacuum. If I were to make the move, I'd have to start Murray or Peterson until Freeman is back, and that scares me.
So getting to that point in the season where I've started seeing teams finally willing to move their 1sts next year. What would you pay for a shot at Barkley and/or Guice/Chubb, etc.? I know many were already slotting Barkley as a dynasty 1st rounder without knowing where he will go, is that still true with the downtick in production his last few games? How would we value him against this years rookie runners? Would you trade away an injured Cook (with McKinnon lighting it up), a disappointing Mixon or PPR machine but poor running McCaffrey? Obviously no one is trading away Fournette now, and Hunt/Kamara would probably be situational to even consider (if someone is out of the running.)
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Cook (who I like), Mixon, Kamara, and McCaffrey are all easy trades for Barkley IMO.
It's a little harder when you get to names like Fournette and Hunt though. I'd personally move Hunt.
I'm clearly a Barkley believer.
It's a little harder when you get to names like Fournette and Hunt though. I'd personally move Hunt.
I'm clearly a Barkley believer.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's also a little harder if you're not sure the pick will end up being 1.01. Right now there seems to be a pretty large dropoff, so there is the potential for disaster if you're giving guys like Cook/Mixon/Kamara for what you think will be the 1.01 and it ends up being 1.02. I could see Barkley over those guys, but I'd have all 3 well above the next best guy.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'd move all of the rookie backs including Fournette for the 1.01, in a vacuum (If I didn't need the ROS production). There is a solid drop from the 1.01 to the 1.02, however. Thus, unless the pick is set in stone, I'm likely to hold onto Fournette, Kamara and Hunt. I'd move Mixon, McCaffrey and Cook if the pick had a good shot to be 1.01, but top 3 was certain.
I'd take Zeke and Gurley over the 1.01, and I think that's it at the RB spot.
Side note - Chubb doesn't look like a top 5-7 rookie pick to me. He's not the same guy, sadly.
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I had similar sentiments, with a few games left in most leagues its hard to know for sure who will end up with the 1.01 in many cases. Especially in leagues with a lottery system or some sort, you'd be paying for the chance to hit on the 1.01. However, once the 1.01 is established it may be more expensive to pry it away at that time.
