The Kamara owner in my league is one of four guys who have a strong shot at 1:1. I'm trying to figure out how much draft pick sweetner to offer along with Fournette for both Kamara and the pick, and also trying to decide how long to wait to see how likely the pick is to be 1:1. I floated a mid second and heard nothing...
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'd think about it but would ultimately reject that offer. If it was PPR.
NON-pro it's a closer call.
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Agreed. Fournette and Kamara are pretty close to equal to me, so no way I would make a move like that.
let's assume this season is over, because if not, you are getting great production out of Kamara with the playoffs coming up
1.01>>Kamara>Fournette
I'm ready to put Barkley on the Zeke, Bell and Johnson tier
I'd put Guice on the next tier with about 6-8 others including Gurley, Hunt, Kamara, Fournette, Cook, Gordon (have to think on Freeman's health and offenses struggle and McCaffrey's rushing production)
Biabreakable
Footballguy
You made out like a bandit there. Even if Henry does meet expectations at some point in his career.Zyphros said:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
It is still too early for me to try to slot the 2018 RBs with the 2017 (or earlier draft classes) right now.
But if I had to make that decision today, for example trading one of the NFL RB you mention for the incoming RBs already rostered with a developmental pick I would not give Cook or Fournette for any of the incoming group, although I do tend to think that Barkley will be rated as a tier one RB for me (I am less sure about Guice and Chubb as far as that goes right now).
I probably would not trade McCaffrey for Barkley right now either, but its perhaps closer to me, I like Cook and Fournette more than McCaffrey, even though all are tier one RB in my view.
I would trade Mixon for Barkley but not be entirely confident about it. I do think Mixon will be a better player next season than he has shown so far. Part of that is I think the Bengals need to upgrade their offensive line though, a coaching change might help Mixon as well, but coaching changes can be a negative for players already with the team too.
I would not trade Hunt for Barkley but I would consider trading Kamara for him. I may need to upgrade Kamara from tier two however if he keeps performing as well as he has, I just haven't given Kamara as much thought as Hunt yet. I haven't seen the Saints or Kamara play really since week one. I like the numbers.
If you are trading these players for a pick that might be high enough to draft Barkley but it isn't certain, then I would be more reluctant to give Mixon for that chance. You never really know how those picks will end up until all of the fantasy games are played, and where they will land. That uncertainty causes me to prefer the known player over the picks.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
No one is concerned that Barkley has looked pretty darn ordinary the last few weeks? Still huge on him, but he has had some rough games this year and has basically moved from Heisman favorite to not even likely to be invited to the ceremony.
That seems way high on Guice. A lot of early 2018 mocks don't even have him as a 1st round pick. The 2nd tier of dynasty backs is about where Zeke and maybe Fournette entered the league, and those guys were both top 5 picks in the NFL draft. We'll see how things shake out for Guice but it's still a toss-up whether or not he will even be a 1st rounder right now.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Not in the slightest. I think teams have focused exclusively on him in an attempt to make McSorley beat them.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Teams aren't going to focus on him to attempt to make Deshone Kizer beat them or whomever the terrible QB is for the team that picks him in the top 5?
I get it, I'm huge on Barkley too. But Zeke only really had 1 off game in his entire senior season in college while Fournette only had bad games against basically the two best rushing defenses in the nation, and his QB was even worse than McSorley. Saquon just got shut down for the 3rd time, this time by mighty Rutgers, and has a career YPC that's surprisingly average for college.
It's not a huge deal, but at least a little bit of doubt that would have me wary of placing him even a tier higher coming into the league than the highest tiered rookie RBs we've ever had.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I could be made to agree he's not a better prospect than Elliott or Fournette.
But he's the best prospect available by far in 2018 rookie drafts. Which is the question I thought I was answering.
Andrew74
Footballguy
I love Barkley but I’d have a hard time ranking him ahead of guys who have proven it in multiple seasons in the NFL like Bell, Zeke and Gurley. For the rookies it’s easier for me. I have Cook and Kamara on my dynasty and if I had to, I’d trade them for Barkley.
He’s looked dominant against good teams (Iowa and Michigan). Then you have Rutgers. Reminds me of Larry Johnson’s last year at PSU where he had ups and downs. Will he be a LT/AD type that transcends his team? Dunno but I hope so. He does look special.
He’s looked dominant against good teams (Iowa and Michigan). Then you have Rutgers. Reminds me of Larry Johnson’s last year at PSU where he had ups and downs. Will he be a LT/AD type that transcends his team? Dunno but I hope so. He does look special.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The context was that he is already in the 1st tier of dynasty running backs alongside Zeke and ahead of guys like Fournette/Gurley who are a whole tier behind him. Not just as prospects either, but in the current dynasty landscape where all of those guys are playing well in the actual NFL alongside their pedigree.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Well, I don't agree with that sentiment.
I wouldn't trade the 1.01 for those three or Bell/Johnson and maybe Hunt. After that, I probably would. Talking backs only.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
What has Fournette really shown that wasn't a safe projection coming in? He's not the most instinctive guy - and that's been clear. He's a physical freak - and that's been clear. He's been better out of the backfield than a lot of people thought, certainly. But his potentially chronic ankle issue has flared up and he's one of only a handful of guys in the league to be suspended by his team for off-the-field behavior. I drafted Fournette with the 1.01 in one league and don't regret it. But I think he's being overrated due to a fluky TD rate that was never going to hold.
I don't consider Barkley tier 1 - that's Zeke and Gurley for me. But he's tier 2, alongside guys like Bell and DJ. I fully acknowledge his floor is much, much lower; but his ceiling is much, much higher. He has the potential to more than double their rest-of-career VBD moving foward. I think it's a perfectly reasonable stance to value DJ and Bell much higher than Barkley. But I also think it's perfectly reasonable to value Barkley higher as well.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Well he's been used a good amount in the receiving game, and produced well with those receptions for a start. There was always the hope that he was actually a good receiver and just wasn't used in that capacity at LSU, but that was really a best case scenario as far as his receiving value goes and one we've heard about many other backs where it didn't pan out that way. But it's a scenario he seems to have hit on.
Additionally, there was the worry that whatever terrible team drafted him wouldn't be able to stay in games long enough to grind out ~20 carries with a back consistently. But Fournette has paired up with a great young defense that is allowing his team to use him all game long, every game.
Lastly, there is certainly value in adding certainty to things that were only likely before. Will Barkley be a workhorse back, especially right out of the gate? We already know the answer for Fournette. Will Barkley's game work at the next level? We already know it will for Fournette. There is value in taking those questions out of the equation.
Sure, and I would agree. This whole discussion started with the notion that Barkley was already tier 1 alongside Zeke, and a full tier dropoff ahead of Gurley. That's what I disagreed with yet people keep arguing with me while basically saying the same thing I am.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Uh, yes. Below is the post that I quoted when starting the discussion about Barkley. Then people started quoting my response to that post and responding.
"1.01>>Kamara>Fournette
I'm ready to put Barkley on the Zeke, Bell and Johnson tier
I'd put Guice on the next tier with about 6-8 others including Gurley, Hunt, Kamara, Fournette, Cook, Gordon (have to think on Freeman's health and offenses struggle and McCaffrey's rushing production)"
Anyway, doesn't matter now, we all appear to be on the same page.
I have no doubt that Barkley will be a first round pick in dynasty leagues next year.
Everybody has their own predilections when it comes to ranking and tiers. I like Barkley as a prospect more than I did Fournette, that's all. Fournette has had a great start to his career until the ankle. 20+ touches. 3+ targets. Not many RBs get that kind of work load.
Everybody has their own predilections when it comes to ranking and tiers. I like Barkley as a prospect more than I did Fournette, that's all. Fournette has had a great start to his career until the ankle. 20+ touches. 3+ targets. Not many RBs get that kind of work load.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
What sort of value does Mike Evans have in PPR right now? Thinking of moving him.
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BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
DHenry and ACollins
for
Ebron and 2018 Rookie #9
I have Bell, DJ, Freeman and Ajayi so trying to trade for a top WR or Watson right now using my 2 1st round picks.
for
Ebron and 2018 Rookie #9
I have Bell, DJ, Freeman and Ajayi so trying to trade for a top WR or Watson right now using my 2 1st round picks.
Pwingles
Footballguy
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Agree 100%. I"m still not convinced Barkley is a better prospect than Guice. That's not being critical of Barkley, that's how good Guice may yet be. It's fun to see how many people are flocking to a guy August - November when they really don't have a clue. Until people start breaking down film and really doing the deep dive draft prep a lot can change.
I'd slot the 1.01 right in at the end of tier 1.
Tier 0 - Gurley, Bell, EZE, DJ, possibly Fournette and Cook once healthy
Tier 1 - Cook, Fournette, Gordon, possibly Ajayi
I think Kamara is there too, but man it's hard to trust Payton's usage history. Same with McCaffrey.
Mixon's talent doesn't scare me but that line is clearly a problem and won't get fixed overnight. Who knows though, Gurley's did. Gun to my head I'd take 1.01 but it's close.
I've never trusted guys with lesser talent in great situations so Hunt, Freeman, and Howard get knocked down. Their production has a tendency to wane quickly. I'm much more interested in talents whose situation is holding them back because they have a tendency to overcome them or out-pace their improvement - see Gurley, Todd.
I also need to be damn sure where the pick is going to be when I'm making a trade. Too often I have seen a guy that's 2-7 win 3 of the last 4 to end up picking 6th.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Yep. Flukes happen, others sell more players or guys get hurt. Dude who just traded his 1st suddenly makes a couple smart moves, possibly because he no longer has incentive to only think about next year...
As a DJ owner, I probably trade him for Barkley. But I'd want to know that I'd actually get him and I want to know what team he plays for. Both Gurley and fournette were fairly equal prospects but last year Gurley was a disappointment because of his team and coach.
Among teams likely to be in the position to draft Barkley, his value (relative to elite backs, not the rookie draft) falls if drafted by the browns or Giants, possibly also in Tampa unless there are changes in those teams. I think I actually like him in San Fran, although I want to see what breida can do as the lead back.
Zyphros
Footballguy
He's slumping this year so it's hard to say. He's still a top5 dynasty asset to me so trading him for guys that hopefully get into that top tier like Mixon/Cooper is a stretch to me.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Some good cut ups posted by construxboy in the Barley thread showing some of his tackles for loss that I watched briefly last night. The kind of plays that any RB would likely lose yards on.
Totally agree about waiting until the season is over and I can watch the players with more focus. For now I am trying to keep an open mind about them all. For example the game I watched of Guice he didn't look good to me at all. But right after that game he got healthier and had a huge day that I didn't see, and he has played better for 3 weeks since the game I saw. I can't let that game I saw overshadow all of his games just because thats the only game I saw. I haven't watched Chubb at all this year. There are other players I will want to watch at the end of the year as well.
Other folks may have seen all of these players games though, and be in a better position to make those calls on these players than I am comfortable with at this time.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
How often do prospects on Barkley's level completely fall apart during the draft process? The Lucks, Suhs, and Petersons? This isn't a Seastrunk level prospect. I think it's safe to say we have a clue about Barkley.
JFS171
Footballguy
I agree with the premise, but Dalvin Cook tanked the draft process for the most part. While I don't necessarily think he was valued over Fournette at this point a year ago, he was right neck and neck with him. Then he posted one of the worst combines we've ever seen for the position, had numerous rumors of off-field concerns, and ultimately fell into the 2nd round, drafted after a kid all over every media outlet for cold cocking a woman.
Cook then looked pretty special before tearing his ACL ... so it has happened.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't mean to suggest that Barkley is bulletproof. He could Mixon himself or be Marcus Lattimore'd tomorrow; but it won't have anything to do with people "digging into his tape." Cook was never in the "best since AP" conversation the way Barkley is. They're clearly miles apart as athletes. Gurley was close to the same level at this point, was drafted top 10 after tearing his ACL in November, and was a first round startup pick the following year.
I'm not sure you and I disagree, so this is not directed at you. But if you don't feel confident making a call on Barkley's talent yet, you're a bit late to the party.
JFS171
Footballguy
I doubt we do disagree on Barkley being special. The tape certainly suggests as much. Chubb used to be ... now I'm not so sure anymore. My point is just that I wouldn't be shocked to see Guice or Royce Freeman or others form an extremely solid second tier, where some managers actually prefer them to Barkley when all is said and done (landing spot and such taken into consideration).
On a different note, I almost feel like every class of the last 2-3 years has looked unbelievable 2 years out, then still star-studded a year out, and then by the time it actually arrives, we're saying the one next year is just as good or better.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Although some have made a big deal about Cooks combine metrics you are being a bit hyperbolic about his numbers being the worst we have ever seen. That is not really true.
His 40 time was 4.49 which is good.
His 3 cone time was 7.27 which was a disappointment as many thought based on his change of direction ability in games that he might have a better number than that. But tons of very good RB have had similar or worse 3 cone times.
His jump numbers were not impressive and the short shuttle time was slow, but as I have pointed out to you before these are not predictive metrics for a RB. He benched 22 times which is pretty good but also not a predictive metric.
The 3 cone time is the only predictive metric where he fell short of good, and in the grand scheme of things doesn't really matter.
It was those using the spark scores that made it seem like his combine metrics were bad.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Yeah, if not for the injury Chubb could be suiting up for the Jags or Panthers this weekend. Such a shame.
I really like Guice as well. I haven't watched much of Love or Jones, but we could be looking at a very strong RB class.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I watched some of Love because the numbers were so eye popping. I came away unimpressed. He is very fast but those long runs are mostly a product of good blocking and poor defense. At least what I saw he wasn't really making defenders miss or doing anything impressive on his own besides running in a straight line really fast for long distances. So it goes in college football.
Royce Freeman is a guy I tried to watch live last year, but he had been benched for fumbling by the time I turned the game on, so I didn't really get to see him play at all.
I am still keeping an open mind about all these guys until I watch them in January. I can't let small samples of watching them influence my perspective too much good or bad.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Seen that a ton. Guy was 0-3 in one league, traded his 1st for Hopkins and Duke, activated Fournette and Watson from DTS and traded for Zach Brown and Thielen cheapish and now he's 5-5. If he wasn't a moron I'd swear that was his strategy. Same league another guy that won the league twice in a row just decided he didn't like his aging team any more and traded Brady, McCoy, DT, Fitz, and a ton of others. He's 1-9 and zero chance to win again (he cut too deep IMO, he's now looking at 3 years to competitive) and he's a lock for Barkley.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Not sure why you're asking me that when I didn't say anything of the sort. In fact, I was pretty explicitly not saying that: "I"m still not convinced Barkley is a better prospect than Guice. That's not being critical of Barkley, that's how good Guice may yet be. "
-OZ-
Footballguy
You might be right about Guice, but I'm far more skeptical of him than Barkley. Good prospect, top 5 ff rookie pick in any format, but I'd be surprised to see him in serious contention for the 1.01
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think it's safe to guess he probably quoted you on accident, given that the post above yours is much more relevant to what he was saying.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
Quoting this post as just one example of people ranking Gordon higher than seems appropriate IMO. I see Gordon as in the 15-20 range, and that is before we pull in the next class including Barkley, Guice, et al.
In his third season, Gordon has not really looked good in any of them. He has been sub 4 ypc in all of them. He has not been healthy throughout any season. What value he has offered has been solely based on volume. All of this is despite the fact that he has been playing in a pretty good offense with a good QB, although the OL run blocking has been generally poor.
Who knows what the Chargers will do, they are not a well run franchise... but IMO they should not pick up his 5th year option this offseason. So, to me, his future seems uncertain. It seems unlikely that he will find equivalent volume elsewhere, though I suppose a better OL might enable him to produce better with fewer touches.
Can those who rank him as a top 15 RB elaborate?
-OZ-
Footballguy
He's still performing as a top 5 back. That's mostly because he's stayed healthy and been able to touch the ball 20 or more times most games.
Pretty sure I didn't write that 11 hours ago. Weird.
