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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
He still has that value, but I agree he is definitely a sell. The best move was to sell him early this year or last offseason at top 5 prices.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Never said I was buying him. Wasn't even my ranking, that was hankmoody and your quoting made it look like it was mine. I just don't think he's necessarily wrong with Gordon. I'd argue more against ajayi being ranked top 10.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I appreciate JWB point of view in regards to Gordon and the Chargers. He is a lot more tuned in with this team than I could invest the time to be.
That said Gordon is RB 6 in standard scoring and RB 5 in PPR scoring right now.
I guess my question is who are the 15 RB that should be ranked ahead of him? He is only 24 years old.
That said Gordon is RB 6 in standard scoring and RB 5 in PPR scoring right now.
I guess my question is who are the 15 RB that should be ranked ahead of him? He is only 24 years old.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
If we put the 2018 rookies in I can get pretty close to 15.
Zeke, Fournette, Hunt, Bell, DJ, Gurley, Freeman, Howard, Cook, Mixon, Kamara, Barkley, Guice, McCaffrey. That would put Gordon at #15.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Maybe I'm the outlier here but I put Gordon ahead of guys like Hunt, Freeman, Cook, Mixon, Kamara, McCaffrey. As of right now, I haven't seen what I need to see from Mixon or McCaffrey to put them in the top10 but I have seen that out of Gordon. I can understand why some (or most) might have Hunt, Kamara and Cook ahead of him but I'm skeptical of their longevity in this top tier. Maybe I'm naive to their usage of Gordon but he's a bellcow, other's not so much.
I have no issue taking guys like Barkley and Guice over him and the other RB's you listed for sure, which would put Gordon right around RB8-10 for me without diving too deep.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I guess for me the ones that you list that I would take Gordon over are Mixon, Kamara, Guice and McCaffrey. But I can see an argument for having those players ahead of Gordon.fruity pebbles said:
Freeman, Howard, Cook and Barley all debatable for me as well.
Tau837
Footballguy
I posted these rankings a couple weeks ago in this thread:Biabreakable said:
- Tier 1 - Elliott (22), Gurley (23)
- Tier 2 - Bell (25), Fournette (22), Hunt (22), David Johnson (26)
- Tier 3 - Mixon (21), Cook (22), Kamara (22)
- Tier 4 - McCaffrey (21), Howard (23), Gordon (24), Freeman (25), Henry (23)
I also do not show Ajayi, who is also 24 and arguably merits a move up in his new situation; that was the debate that led me to post these rankings. Nor am I showing older players who some might prefer (e.g., McCoy).
I realize Gordon finished top 5 last season and is hovering around top 5 this season to date, but that is all due to volume that IMO is not sustainable because his actual performance has been subpar (under 4 ypc every season). IMO this is a case where his fantasy performance does not correlate well to his NFL performance, and the team will be forced to find other RBs to share that volume going forward. Combine that with the fact that he has not stayed healthy for a full season to date, and I think we have already seen his career peak fantasy performance.
ETA: So I guess I overstated it by saying 15-20 range for Gordon before inserting the next rookie class. 11-15 range before that class is a better characterization, but with the expectation that he will drop due to next rookie class infusion.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I need to see what happens with Ajayi with the Eagles but I think I would rank or tier him pretty similar to Gordon at this point in time.
Gordon was a tier one RB in my view from 2015 and he has lived up to that for 1.5 of his first 3 seasons so far.
I do hear what you are saying in regards to the ypc, it is becoming a large enough sample size now for me to consider that.
The volume doesn't really bother me. I want RB who get a lot of volume. RB who do get a lot of opportunity have shown a tendency to continue getting that as their careers go on and looking at the historical curve of RB performance having some decline after age 25-27 still puts him in a 3 year window of being able to maintain that.
I do hear what you are saying in regards to the volume perhaps being at risk however due to the below average efficiency.
Gordon has done pretty well as a receiver though, I think better than really expected there. If he ends up losing some of that to a COP RB it will hurt his overall value in a pretty significant way.
Do you think Ekeler is a threat to Gordons opportunities as a receiving RB? Or perhaps the Chargers add another RB in the next draft that might be a threat to that?
Gordon was a tier one RB in my view from 2015 and he has lived up to that for 1.5 of his first 3 seasons so far.
I do hear what you are saying in regards to the ypc, it is becoming a large enough sample size now for me to consider that.
The volume doesn't really bother me. I want RB who get a lot of volume. RB who do get a lot of opportunity have shown a tendency to continue getting that as their careers go on and looking at the historical curve of RB performance having some decline after age 25-27 still puts him in a 3 year window of being able to maintain that.
I do hear what you are saying in regards to the volume perhaps being at risk however due to the below average efficiency.
Gordon has done pretty well as a receiver though, I think better than really expected there. If he ends up losing some of that to a COP RB it will hurt his overall value in a pretty significant way.
Do you think Ekeler is a threat to Gordons opportunities as a receiving RB? Or perhaps the Chargers add another RB in the next draft that might be a threat to that?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Right, the problem with his volume dependency is that the volume is unlikely to continue if the efficiency doesn't improve, which it hasn't.
Before the season (and early on this year) I made the point that no RB in the modern era has failed to break 4ypc for three straight years and maintained their starting job in year 4. I don't typically like betting against history and history says Gordon will not be a feature back next year. At the time people pointed to Matt Forte as someone who had a similarly slow start (through 2 years) and also contributed to the passing game like Gordon does, but Forte massively improved his efficiency in year 3 while Gordon has not.
Even if it doesn't mean Gordon gets benched, just that they start having him split time with a guy, without that insane volume Gordon is not very valuable because the volume is what gives him his value.
I'm not sure if it will be Ekeler or someone else but I'm not betting on Gordon maintaining his volume heavy role next year. I don't know where I would have Gordon ranked but it doesn't really matter, because I can say with certainty that it is far below the consensus and if I owned him in any leagues (I don't, I sold him off long ago) I would be selling at his current prices.
Before the season (and early on this year) I made the point that no RB in the modern era has failed to break 4ypc for three straight years and maintained their starting job in year 4. I don't typically like betting against history and history says Gordon will not be a feature back next year. At the time people pointed to Matt Forte as someone who had a similarly slow start (through 2 years) and also contributed to the passing game like Gordon does, but Forte massively improved his efficiency in year 3 while Gordon has not.
Even if it doesn't mean Gordon gets benched, just that they start having him split time with a guy, without that insane volume Gordon is not very valuable because the volume is what gives him his value.
I'm not sure if it will be Ekeler or someone else but I'm not betting on Gordon maintaining his volume heavy role next year. I don't know where I would have Gordon ranked but it doesn't really matter, because I can say with certainty that it is far below the consensus and if I owned him in any leagues (I don't, I sold him off long ago) I would be selling at his current prices.
Tau837
Footballguy
Yes, Ekeler is a threat. He has recently taken snaps and opportunities from Gordon, and that should be expected to continue if he continues to perform well with his opportunities.
In the first 6 games, Gordon played 74.6% of the Chargers' offensive snaps. Over the past 3 games, he has played 65.6%. Meanwhile, Ekeler's percentages were 8.2% and 31.7% over those two periods.
In the first 6 games, Gordon averaged 16.5 rushing attempts and 6.5 targets per game. Over the past 3 games, he has averaged 16 rushing attempts and 4.7 targets per game. So he has lost 2.3 opportunities per game. Doesn't seem like a big deal. The more worrisome thing is whether or not a greater shift of those opportunities will occur if Ekeler continues to perform.
Ekeler is averaging 5.0 ypc and 9.4 ypr, compared to 3.8 and 7.1 for Gordon. Ekeler has scored 4 TDs on 44 touches; Gordon has scored 8 TDs on 182 touches. There is just a huge gap between them in terms of efficiency. I realize there is also a huge gap in sample size, and that is the only reason there is any doubt about Ekeler right now.
Obviously, Ekeler just exploded in last week's game, so it is difficult to tell if there is a trend here or if that game was a fluke. Focusing more on the 10 carries and 5 targets than on the 2 TDs.
This is also a franchise that successfully paired a guy like Woodhead with Gordon and previously with a guy like Gordon (Mathews). Whisenhunt was the OC and Rivers was the QB, same as now. So they may be motivated to try to recapture that with Ekeler. Woodhead outsnapped and outproduced both Gordon and Mathews when he was healthy, so there is real risk here for Gordon's volume.
If Ekeler fizzles, I expect the team to bring in another RB to pair with Gordon, whether via draft or free agency. The Chargers offense was much better with Woodhead than it has been without him.
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NeverEnough
Footballguy
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
I see him getting open a lot still. I think he's ultimately going to be fine and should have a few strong WR1 seasons ahead. He is dropping the ball to much and I'm not sure if that's a confidence thing or his hands are really that bad. I don't own him anywhere but I'd give up a late 1st still to acquire him right now and see if he turns it around.
Finally decided to move on from Amari, so here is a price check for those interested.
12 team PPR:
I gave A. Cooper and my 1st round 2018 pick (I'll be the 5th or 6th seed in playoffs this season so pick won't be any earlier than #7)
I received B. Cooks, G. Kittle, and non-playoff team's 2nd round 2018 pick (should be in the 2.03 to 2.05 range)
12 team PPR:
I gave A. Cooper and my 1st round 2018 pick (I'll be the 5th or 6th seed in playoffs this season so pick won't be any earlier than #7)
I received B. Cooks, G. Kittle, and non-playoff team's 2nd round 2018 pick (should be in the 2.03 to 2.05 range)
Pwingles
Footballguy
I can understand your frustration towards amari. I think most dynasty heads consider him to be worth 2 firsts at least, I think its mostly based on what you would have had to invest in draft capital and time versus actual performance, but perceived value is the same as actual value a lot of times.
I don't dislike this deal for you, I like Cooks a lot. I think moving an upside guy, in a good situation can be tricky. But if you're going to do it, getting an established, young talent for him is way better than moving him for some picks.
Pwingles
Footballguy
I think if you offered him straight up right now, you might get him. Im not super sure its a great move, but there is a good chance Ingram isnt there next year. Im not sure how that will change Kamaras output. Fournette's role is pretty set, and barring injury should be pretty reliable weekly opportunity
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I turned down a Fournette for my Kamara offer recently. I suppose that makes Kamara my RB5 - and Lenny RB6. Same tier for me, assuming PPR.
Part of my motivation was to improve my chances in the playoffs this season. It has gotten to the point where I wasn't starting Cooper because of his lower production this season. Cooks offers a chance for me to improve my WR production over the next 2 - 4 weeks, which could result in a decent financial gain. My starting WRs the last few weeks have been M. Thomas, Funchess and Sanu. Cooks gives me the option of starting 4 WRs now, or dropping either Funchess or Sanu based on match-ups.
Long term I felt Cooper and Cooks were a toss up. Since the mid-point of the 2016 season Cooper has been pretty average (except for week 7 this season). There were a lot of questions about his drop off during the 2nd half of the 2016 season and even more questions this season. During that same time period Cooks has been a consistent producer and outscored Cooper by quite a bit.
As you point out, Cooper's perceived value is higher than Cooks' perceived value, and if I had done some shopping around I may have found a better offer. But the rankings I reviewed had Cooper and Cooks in the same small range (usually within 5 - 10 spots of each other), so I went with the guy who would provide more short term value and possibly similar long range value.
Andrew74
Footballguy
What kind of return do you guys feel Gordon (Melvin) can bring? I have Gurley, Cook and Kamara. I also have what looks to be the 1.02 and 1.04 this year. With the deep class of RBs, I’m thinking of cashing in Gordon’s past two RB1 seasons. I’d love to land an Evans/Nuk WR but I’m not sure how much more I’d need to add (1.04?). What WRs are compatible prices to Gordon?
Pwingles
Footballguy
Personally, unless somehow Saquan is a possibility at 1.02, which he wont be, I am not seeing the possibility of another team having a WR group good enough to give an Evans or Nuk for Gordon +1.02.
The problem IMO with this type of offer is that you're trying to get an elite level WR for what will essentially be 2 Rbs (obviously starting req's and league make up etc can make the situation different) If I was the nuk or evans owner in this spot, my team would have to not be close to contending and I would need another top 8 or so pick.
Just my opinion as someone who owns both players.
You might be able to swing Gordon for a player+pick if you were to target guys in a slightly different tier like cooks/diggs/landry/Allen etc though. Obviously not the super elite guys but all are still young and talented with WR1 upside. With an RB group like yours, you would still be in excellent shape
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Andrew74
Footballguy
I stole @ZWK latest ranking for WR (hope he doesn’t mind) to think about where I’d spot Gordon. There’s personal preference but I could see a 1-1 swap for someone between 12-18 (I wouldn’t for ARob, not a fan).
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 25.0 (1)
1 2 Mike Evans TB 24.2 (2)
1 3 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 25.4 (7)
2 4 Michael Thomas NO 24.7 (6)
2 5 Antonio Brown PIT 29.4 (5)
3 6 Julio Jones ATL 28.8 (4)
3 7 A.J. Green CIN 29.3 (8)
3 8 T.Y. Hilton IND 28.0 (9)
3 9 Allen Robinson JAX 24.2 (12)
3 10 Brandin Cooks NE 24.1 (11)
4 11 Tyreek Hill KC 23.7 (30)
4 12 Amari Cooper OAK 23.4 (3)
4 13 Sammy Watkins RAM 24.4 (10)
4 14 Adam Thielen MIN 27.2 (59)
4 15 Corey Davis TEN 22.9 (15)
5 16 Davante Adams GB 24.9 (17)
5 17 Keenan Allen LAC 25.6 (16)
5 18 Stefon Diggs MIN 24.0 (21)
5 19 Doug Baldwin SEA 29.2 (23)
5 20 Corey Coleman CLE 23.4 (18)
5 21 Alshon Jeffery PHI 27.8 (13)
5 22 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 21.0 (44)
5 23 Dez Bryant DAL 29.0 (14)
5 24 DeVante Parker MIA 24.8 (19)
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 25.0 (1)
1 2 Mike Evans TB 24.2 (2)
1 3 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 25.4 (7)
2 4 Michael Thomas NO 24.7 (6)
2 5 Antonio Brown PIT 29.4 (5)
3 6 Julio Jones ATL 28.8 (4)
3 7 A.J. Green CIN 29.3 (8)
3 8 T.Y. Hilton IND 28.0 (9)
3 9 Allen Robinson JAX 24.2 (12)
3 10 Brandin Cooks NE 24.1 (11)
4 11 Tyreek Hill KC 23.7 (30)
4 12 Amari Cooper OAK 23.4 (3)
4 13 Sammy Watkins RAM 24.4 (10)
4 14 Adam Thielen MIN 27.2 (59)
4 15 Corey Davis TEN 22.9 (15)
5 16 Davante Adams GB 24.9 (17)
5 17 Keenan Allen LAC 25.6 (16)
5 18 Stefon Diggs MIN 24.0 (21)
5 19 Doug Baldwin SEA 29.2 (23)
5 20 Corey Coleman CLE 23.4 (18)
5 21 Alshon Jeffery PHI 27.8 (13)
5 22 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 21.0 (44)
5 23 Dez Bryant DAL 29.0 (14)
5 24 DeVante Parker MIA 24.8 (19)
I own Fournette, McCaffery, Cook, Mixon, Kamara and Hunt so truly have no horse in the race but rather all the horses in the race. Point is I don't consider myself biased. I own Kamara the most in redraft, and by a whopping margin, so in redraft I might be biased when I say I'd take Kamara over all of them for ROS but this is how I'd rank them for dynasty with the key notation being I'm ignoring their contribution for the rest of this season. In other words if I was doing my dynasty rankings after week 17 based on what I know I would rank these 6 rookie RB's this way and I'll add very brief reasons as to why.
1. Mixon- 1-1.5 years younger than all the RB's except McCaffrey which he is similar, only RB with less college wear and tear is Kamara but most of all skillset and anticipated improved OL.
2. Kamara- limited wear and tear, don't recall him on the injury report this year, took some huge shots last week but normally does not suffer the physical pounding guys like Mixon/Fournette endure weekly. Biggest concern in dynasty is that IMO he is the perfect offense for his skill set and I've been saying this since he was drafted. His skill is legit and he is dynamic in any offense but how much longer does have to work with Payton and Brees?
3. Dalvin Cook-coming off second ACL of his career and his shoulder surgeries is a little risky for sure. I could point out that at this point in his career that Frank Gore had two ACL's and two shoulder surgeries as well, when medicine was not as advanced, but Frank Gore's don't come around often. But his game is outstanding.
4. Fournette- He does not remind me of Adrian Peterson, never has. He reminds me of Earl Campbell but he's better in the passing game then he was given credit. Placing him 4th, or the RB I'll place at 6th should not be taken as a sleight, it's a great class. But oddly enough I'm more concerned about his ankle than Dalvin Cooks full blown ACL. Is that dumb? Maybe, but I can't shake feelling like Cook will rehab his ACL and come back fine and we'll still be dealing with Fournette ankle issues for many seasons to come.
5. Hunt- I don't think his recent struggles are so much on him and last week he had no where to go. I sure don't think the player we saw to start the year was a fluke so in that sense hard to list him 5th but again I stress putting a RB 5th out of 6th in this group should be considered an insult, just a great group. Small concern that Ware returns next season and eats into his workload at least a little, not a RBBC, but a little workload erosion.
6. McCaffrey- what he does best he does really well and that is operate as pass receiving/satellite RB. This gives him a strong floor. Oddly enough I'd list his floor as second best of this group but ceiling as lowest, which is hard to be on both ends of that spectrum. Just not seeing enough of him as a runner, despite improvement in past few weeks, to lead me to believe he'll be the next Leveon Bell type but more of a complementary runner.
I would not have an issue with anyone ranking these RB's in any order. I would put all these RB's in my top 10 dynasty RB's, all of them would be considered by me in a startup while still in round 2.
This by the way was how I ranked them, and drafted them, after the NFL draft for dynasty with all drafts held 1-2 weeks after NFL draft. They were my top 6 rated RB's post and pre-NFL draft, and along with Davis and Mike Williams made up my top 8 ranked players for dynasty in PPR leagues.(In TE premium leagues lower as I put Howard and Engram in the mix)
1. Fournette
2. McCafffrey
3. Mixon
4. Cook
5. Kamara
6. Hunt
And in redraft I had them ranked this way with about a week to go before the season started:
1. McCaffrey
2. Hunt
3. Cook
4. Fournette
5. Kamara
6. Mixon
Just providing how I've evolved with them for context.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
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Zyphros
Footballguy
I wouldn't trade Gordon for anyone below 9 (Arob is kind of sketchy to me so probably not him either). If I did take any of them down there, I'd want something on top. Gordon is still young for 3-5 years of production. Now that production is the debate for some but I'm not super bullish on him or down on him so I like to think I'm in that middle ground.Andrew74 said:
djmich
Footballguy
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
PPR:Andrew74 said:
Might as well try Gordon + 1.4 for one of them. I wouldn't accept it for Evans or Hopkins but it's fair enough to try. Very well could get someone to accept as draft day approaches. I personally would value Gordon somewhere in WR15-20 area.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
https://overthecap.com/player/mark-ingram/1511/
Ingram can earn additional escaltors and the 2018 season can void if he achieves Pro Bowl or All Pro honors.
Sportstrac has the same info. I know Ingram re-did his contract in 2016 so maybe that changed it to one. I have never known Sportstrac to be wrong and am pretty certain I recall the multiple Pro Bowl requirement in the past but it's no longer there. If it's between Sportstrac vs. the rest of the Internet my money is on Sportstrac.
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I mentioned this in the reply I provided you, he had a Pro-Bowl clause but that involved multiple Pro-Bowls and that ship sailed. He will NOT be a FA by making the pro-bowl, but if you don't want to believe me that is your call.
http://www.theadvocate.com/new_orleans/sports/saints/article_994bb10a-cfce-11e7-8bd2-f38ae49a5e0f.html
The Saints running back has a clause in his deal that makes him a free agent if the Associated Press names him a first-team All-Pro. Ingram also could have fulfilled his contract a year early if he made the Pro Bowl in 2016 and 2017, but he did not receive that honor last season.
The quote I provided above is from the advocate, the writer is a Saints beat writer who I've known to be accurate. That story was backed up by another Saints beat writer on ESPN who also added that he had to be first team All-Pro with link and quote below.
http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/258841/mark-ingram-could-become-free-agent-if-he-keeps-up-torrid-pace
As the New Orleans Advocate first pointed out, Ingram has a clause in his contract that will void the remainder of the deal after this season if he is named first-team All-Pro by The Associated Press.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
And I mentioned that I just don't buy it. Sportstrac has been hyper accurate about contract statuses in the past. Maybe they are wrong this time. I just don't know why they would have removed that language from their info if it was still relevant. Maybe your guys is right, we'll see.
It might be moot, he's got a pretty good shot at All-Pro. Bell and Gurley are probably the best bets right now but there's still time. If not, Kamara's emergence is going to be what ruins it for him.
I provided you two highly credible sources, both articles wrote in last week and both clearly say he must be an All-Pro and you are going are just not going to buy it? I'm sorry to have engaged with you and you are 100% dead wrong.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Your talking about Josh Gordon right?Andrew74 said:
I wouldn't trade any of the above players for Josh Gordon.
I would rank Josh Gordon around WR 60 and not in the top 100 players for dynasty.
eta - I guess you are talking about Mevin Gordon. So thats different. JWB has convinced me to fade Melvin Gordon somewhat. Not sure I would trade any of the above for him either. Dez Bryant is I guess where I start considering it. I think I would have a few more players ahead of Dez Bryant on this list though.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
And I provided you two highly credible sources, both of which specialize in contract details and both clearly say otherwise yet you're not buying it. Why can you have your own preference but I can't have mine? Your sources might be right. My sources might be right. It's nothing personal, we just have conflicting information. It will be interesting to see how it ends up.
I read his post as talking about Josh Gordon. If so, it’s amazing he could be so highly valued when he is practically guaranteed to screw up and get suspended again (my opinion of course).
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I scrolled up a few posts and he was talking about Melvin Gordon there. So I would assume that is who Andrew means in the post I quoted.
Don't see any reason why Josh Gordon would be up there with WR who are very good and producing.
Wouldn't have to guess if it would just be clear what Gordon folks are talking about.
I would need to think about it a bit more in regards to Melvin Gordon. I would be willing to trade older good WR like Dez for him than younger good WRs is basically what that comes down to for me.
I value WR more than RB in general for dynasty, even more so if we are talking about PPR dynasty.
Rankings always depend on scoring system and rankings do not mean I would trade a lower ranked player for a higher ranked player automatically at all. There are so many other things I consider when trading than just rankings. For example the way my roster is constructed will change who I would trade for who.
I view player value more in deep tiers than rankings anyways.
Tau837
Footballguy
Also note that the All Pro team changed, and now only guarantees 1 RB selection. The second RB selection was changed to a flex position, meaning they could choose a WR or TE instead of a second RB. That would seem to further reduce Ingram's chance of making it.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
yep, Ingram would have to run for 200+ yards a game ROS to have a chance at All-Pro this season. He's not gonna be a UFA.
Andrew74
Footballguy
My bad. I was talking about Melvin Gordon. My original post noted that but when I posted the WR rankings I just said “Gordon.” Sorry about not being clear.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thoughts on Jay Ajayi's value moving forward? He's a guy I was high on coming into the season, but I'm not sure what to make of him today. He doesn't look like the same guy, he's struggling to put Clement and Blount on the bench, and his former backups are besting his production in Miami. I want to bet on what I saw in 2016, but I can't account for the drop off. I'm starting to think a 3rd for Clement is a better investment than a late 1st for Ajayi.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
What have you seen from Mixon to give him this bump? I still love his upside, but I'm less bullish than I was to start the season. His situation proved to be much worse that I expectd, and he's yet to really outproduce Gio or Hill - granted, on higher volume.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I think the time to sell him high has passed. I moved him & Juju for Fournette & Fuller before the trade deadline. I'd sell in the offseason if I could get value.
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NeverEnough
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
He still makes some amazing runs in the limited fashion that they have used him. Better than their other RB in this regard in my opinion.
They take him out of the game on 3rd downs though and other obvious passing situations, which is also the same, and not a good sign for him in that regard, despite the coach speak that indicated otherwise. He did have a bad drop on a swing pass that I saw. If he is doing that in practice also, I can understand why they don't trust him there, just like Miami. No reason to when Clement is more consistent than he is in pass protection and as a receiving option.
He fumbled that long run just before the goal line. The Eagles still scored, but I think he lost some faith in the coaches with that fumble, and thus more Blount in short yardage grind type situations.
Its possible these things change in time, like maybe next season, but as the Eagles are trying to maintain their good situation going into the playoffs, they likely do not want to take risks with Ajayi's mistakes right now. So I don't really see the situation changing this year.
So he is basically in the same situation as before, with less rushing opportunities. Only good thing I can say is the big runs are still there. He is still special in that regard, but the missing parts make him not very useful for fantasy. You have to hope he has a big play on low volume, and thats risky.
From the Eagles perspective it is likely fine. They use him sparingly and hopefully still get some of those big plays out of him that the other backs can't really do. Then use the other backs for everything else.
The only real chance I see of his value improving is if he can prove himself reliable to be used more, and in more situations. I doubt that is going to happen this year, but maybe he gets a shot to do that during the offseason.
I would still rather have him than Clement. No that Clement is bad, he isn't, he is pretty solid. Just lacks upside in my view.
Its a great situation for any RB who could earn a majority share of the offense. Doesn't seem like that is going to happen though. The situation may get split even more if Pumphrey or another RB can earn a Sproles type roe in the offense.
I would downgrade Ajayi at this point from being very high on him. I think I have seen enough now to justify doing that. The problem isn't all Gase. Its Jay too.
I would still like to have Ajayi but I would pay much to acquire him. If i already had him I would likely just hold and see what happens. I wouldn't expect to be able to get much for him in trade. In the off chance you could sell him for nice value, then I would do that, when I wouldn't have before.
He has enough upside that I likely would not want to move him for a 2nd round rookie pick or something of similarly mediocre value, but I wouldn't really expect to be able to get more than that for him either, so that makes him a hold to me. If you can package him for what is better value than that somehow, then sure do that.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Agreed.
I would give Parker for Melvin Gordon easily.
Gordon looked pretty good in their most recent game. I only saw a few of his plays, but JWB agreed that he looked better in that game than he had for awhile this season.
Its only one game with Josh Gordon back, but he got almost 3 times the opportunity as Coleman. Maybe that changes in games ahead, but not a good sign. I really liked Coleman as a rookie prospect, so I am reluctant to give up on him too soon, but I think he is being overvalued at 20th overall in the above list as well.
eta - In regards to Josh Gordon, one positive game is not enough to remove my skepticism regarding him, but its a positive sign. If he continues to get double digit targets and is productive with them, then I will start taking him more seriously again. I just think a conservative approach in regards to him is the right one, just like with any other player. There is still a lot of risk.
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