What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (6 Viewers)

Thoughts on Jay Ajayi's value moving forward?  He's a guy I was high on coming into the season, but I'm not sure what to make of him today.  He doesn't look like the same guy, he's struggling to put Clement and Blount on the bench, and his former backups are besting his production in Miami.  I want to bet on what I saw in 2016, but I can't account for the drop off.  I'm starting to think a 3rd for Clement is a better investment than a late 1st for Ajayi.  
Last year he was crying because of playing time. Now he's traded from a going nowhere Dolphin team to an Eagles team that is in the Super Bowl discussion and he's still crying about his playing time. Sounds like a selfish locker room cancer type of guy.

 
Concept Coop said:
What have you seen from Mixon to give him this bump?  I still love his upside, but I'm less bullish than I was to start the season. His situation proved to be much worse that I expectd, and he's yet to really outproduce Gio or Hill - granted, on higher volume.  
Good question because on the surface it seems odd to bump him.

One major reason would be to look at where I had them ranked for redraft and I had Mixon last. The reason for that is the usage we saw the first few weeks of the season, before they fired the OC, was the usage I expected out of Mixon this season so long as all 3 RB's were healthy.  This to me made Mixon nothing more than a high end handcuff this season.  I saw the other 5 RB's as fantasy starters this season, without needing an injury(this is post-Ware injury rankings). So for me I had his situation as extremely negative entering the season.

Now it's dynasty but 2017 mattered how I ranked them prior to the season in dynasty leagues because 2017 matters. So I put Fournette and McCaffery over him in dynasty rankings because while I liked Mixons career potential more, I liked 2017 that much more for the other two and liked their career potentials enough for them to remain at 1 and 2.  But now if I'm looking at them on how I'd rank them when this season is over I'm no longer that concerned about Mixon's usage. I still think Gio will put a little crimp on his receiving totals, especially if no coaching change, so I'm not expecting Bell or DJ type of passing game use, yet,  but not a RBBC any longer. Meanwhile McCaffrey has disappointed me as a runner and Fournette's ankle issue worries me as well as he's spent most of the year playing a very physical style of football. Not easy predicting career longevity but again once you get past this season you got a RB in Mixon who I think is about 1.5 years younger than Fournette but with way less wear and tear and no possible persistent ankle.

Now I think a lot of your question centered on fact Mixon has not looked that impressive for most of the year. Sometimes patience backfires, I believed in Trent Richardson longer than any human should have. Sometimes it helps, I own Gurley a ton in dynasty and I never once offered him in a trade this off-season because I believed in his talent and did not want to sale low. Also RB seems like an easy position to grasp but we've seen some rookie RB's struggle past few seasons and rebound big time in year two. Melvin Gordon, Freeman, Ajayi come to mind.  Even Bell for that matter but that had a lot to do with his physique change.  I just felt the bad OL, scattershot usage and possibly pressure of trying to justify the Bengals faith in him was a bad mix. I recall Gruden saying in the telecast on Monday that he had never functioned out of the I formation and this was new to him, this is something I did not even take into consideration. I thought about guys like Ezzekial Elliot. His first two games last season he was not running that great, he had no patience, was playing to fast. This is what I thought watching him and he said as much after week two, he started to relax, not try to hit a homerun on every play and he took off. It only took him two games to acclimate but it's also easier to learn to be patient running behind that OL last year getting 20+ carries a agame.  IMO I saw same things in Mixon early this year, no patience. I think that is borne from a lot of factors,  bad OL play and limited usage that does not allow you to get into a rhythm and leads to trying to make something happen on your few chances.

So all that plus I offered up this rankings after the Cleveland game and while only one game it did show his full skill set and the reasons why I thought he was the best RB in this draft class.

 
Has Drake been discussed recently?   I'm liking this guy and thinking now might be the time to go get him (ok maybe like a month ago was the time).

Or is he just a guy getting hot at year end because he didn't play much all season?

 
Has Drake been discussed recently?   I'm liking this guy and thinking now might be the time to go get him (ok maybe like a month ago was the time).

Or is he just a guy getting hot at year end because he didn't play much all season?
He's definitely looked good since he started playing more so that's obviously a good sign.  I always have skepticism of buying guys like this though.  There's something to be said for fresh legs and youth and me not being a huge fan of his coming out makes me skeptical of what he actually will become.  Clearly he was down the depth chart for a reason before so yes he's good but will he be something special?  I doubt it.  Could settle in a nice RB2 though.  His owners likely wouldn't sell for something like that I'd imagine.  

 
He's definitely looked good since he started playing more so that's obviously a good sign.  I always have skepticism of buying guys like this though.  There's something to be said for fresh legs and youth and me not being a huge fan of his coming out makes me skeptical of what he actually will become.  Clearly he was down the depth chart for a reason before so yes he's good but will he be something special?  I doubt it.  Could settle in a nice RB2 though.  His owners likely wouldn't sell for something like that I'd imagine.  
My thoughts as well.  If you like him, buy him after the Dolphins bring in another back in the offseason.  If you don't, sell him before that happens. 

It's worth pointing out that Williams has been just about as efficient with his recent touches.  That running game as a whole is clicking right now.

 
Hard to put a price on Drake this late in the season.  He's an RB1 the rest of the way, but we don't know what his role will be after that.  I might pay a late 1st if I can stick him in my lineup this weekend and next. If I'm buying after the season, I'd be less inclined to do so.  I'll wait it out unless I can get him for a 2nd.  But again, the Dolphins are going to address the RB spot in some capacity.  Even a CJ Anderson level signing will impact Drake's market value some.  

 
Anybody else stashing Ricky Seals-Jones?  He's looked good in limited snaps, and as a former 5* recruit at WR, has an obvious upside.  That said, it could be hard for him to stay on the field if he can't block.

 
Concept Coop said:
Anybody else stashing Ricky Seals-Jones?  He's looked good in limited snaps, and as a former 5* recruit at WR, has an obvious upside.  That said, it could be hard for him to stay on the field if he can't block.
I'm stashing him in multiple leagues.  All my leagues are either 2TE or TE premium though so it makes sense to stash a guy like that.  I think you're fooling yourself if you expect a catapult into the top10 TE's this coming year though.  Very likely a new QB in town and chemistry plus like you mentioned if he can't block then that obvious limits him a bit. 

I assume he is a TE mostly but does he line up at WR a lot?  I ask because in an FFPC league I have him, he's designated at WR which I thought was weird.  

 
I'm stashing him in multiple leagues.  All my leagues are either 2TE or TE premium though so it makes sense to stash a guy like that.  I think you're fooling yourself if you expect a catapult into the top10 TE's this coming year though.  Very likely a new QB in town and chemistry plus like you mentioned if he can't block then that obvious limits him a bit. 

I assume he is a TE mostly but does he line up at WR a lot?  I ask because in an FFPC league I have him, he's designated at WR which I thought was weird.  
I've only watched the highlights - I think I've seen the majority of his receptions - but he lines up inline plenty.  2 of his 3 TDs he lined up with his hand in the dirt.  He does lineup out wide at times as well.  While it's early, they do appear to be taking his transition to TE seriously.  I have no idea why he'd be classified as a WR in FFPC.

 
I've only watched the highlights - I think I've seen the majority of his receptions - but he lines up inline plenty.  2 of his 3 TDs he lined up with his hand in the dirt.  He does lineup out wide at times as well.  While it's early, they do appear to be taking his transition to TE seriously.  I have no idea why he'd be classified as a WR in FFPC.
FFPC follows how player is designated by team during training camp. That designation remains for the entire season even if player changes positions or teams. WAS RB Byron Marshall is also classified as a WR.

Rule can be frustrating, but I understand why they do it.

 
I was reading an Assistant Coach post (Scout's honor not mine) about RB value. On of the guys the OP listed was Jamaal Williams and the two responses before mine ignored him as having any current value. (IIRC, the guy was looking for advice on trading RBs for WR or picks). I'd think that Williams is carrying RB20 value right now. If I was going to shop him, I'd be looking for at least a mid first round pick. Am I way off the reservation here?

 
I was reading an Assistant Coach post (Scout's honor not mine) about RB value. On of the guys the OP listed was Jamaal Williams and the two responses before mine ignored him as having any current value. (IIRC, the guy was looking for advice on trading RBs for WR or picks). I'd think that Williams is carrying RB20 value right now. If I was going to shop him, I'd be looking for at least a mid first round pick. Am I way off the reservation here?
Yes, I can't see any serious owner paying that much for him with two other RBs on the roster ready to make that into a three-headed monster.

 
Concept Coop said:
Hard to put a price on Drake this late in the season.  He's an RB1 the rest of the way, but we don't know what his role will be after that.  I might pay a late 1st if I can stick him in my lineup this weekend and next. If I'm buying after the season, I'd be less inclined to do so.  I'll wait it out unless I can get him for a 2nd.  But again, the Dolphins are going to address the RB spot in some capacity.  Even a CJ Anderson level signing will impact Drake's market value some.  
This is a perfect opportunity to sell Drake high.  Always be leery of RBs who come out of nowhere in December.  Odds are they won't be as dominant in the following September.

 
I was reading an Assistant Coach post (Scout's honor not mine) about RB value. On of the guys the OP listed was Jamaal Williams and the two responses before mine ignored him as having any current value. (IIRC, the guy was looking for advice on trading RBs for WR or picks). I'd think that Williams is carrying RB20 value right now. If I was going to shop him, I'd be looking for at least a mid first round pick. Am I way off the reservation here?
He's a mediocre player with a high workload. I would sell for a top 15 pick and not look back.

 
Concept Coop said:
Anybody else stashing Ricky Seals-Jones?  He's looked good in limited snaps, and as a former 5* recruit at WR, has an obvious upside.  That said, it could be hard for him to stay on the field if he can't block.
Are we assuming Arians is out? I like him a lot more if they clean house.

 
Cool, I suppose I'm reading too much into a good stretch of games. I'm dependent on his production for the 2017 playoffs, so right now his value to me is likely higher than to most others.

 
Can't fault him for finishing 7-9 with what they went through, but it does seem it is time. I expected more crashing and burning.
He wasn't very convincing in rejecting the retirement rumors.  I certainly don't fault him for the season, but I just don't see a guy who wants to groom a young QB right now - and they need to groom a young QB. I like Bruce though.  

 
Can someone give me some long-term negative comps for Fournette's ankle?  I know there was the one doctor who said his ankle issues would be chronic - and it did flare up again this season.  But I can't think of any bad career examples off the top of my head, unlike knee, foot, and even hamstring issues.  A sizable portion of the community is scared off by it, and, as an owner, I'm not sure where I stand. 

 
He's probably going under the knife this offseason. I wouldn't trade him until after you see how he comes back. He's looked special to me at times this year on one leg. 

 
He's probably going under the knife this offseason. I wouldn't trade him until after you see how he comes back. He's looked special to me at times this year on one leg. 
He certainly has some special traits; I like him.  I feel I'm actually less concerned about his ankle than the market, so perhaps I overstated it.  I just can't think of a single "he'd have been great, if not for that ankle" story.  But it's certainly possible I'm just not remembering them.  He's still my RB6, and I feel good about that.  

Edit: RB6 (Kamara)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
This old thread needs some activity heading into the off-season....

Dion Lewis?  Would love a late first for him but don't think anyone would pay that. (Non-ppr)

I think the only way that happens is if Lewis keeps it up throughout the NFL playoffs. 

Thoughts?

 
This old thread needs some activity heading into the off-season....

Dion Lewis?  Would love a late first for him but don't think anyone would pay that. (Non-ppr)

I think the only way that happens is if Lewis keeps it up throughout the NFL playoffs. 

Thoughts?
First, isn't Dion Lewis a UFA? That's going to give most folks pause until it is clear that NE will bring him back, not a guaranteed proposition.

Even if Lewis does, there's too many owners that have been snake-bit by a NE RB to provide a consistent valuation across all leagues.
I could see a few owners giving a 1.08ish pick for him, but his median value shakes out to around 2.05 for me. I just can't see him going for a 1st in more than a handful of leagues.

 
First, isn't Dion Lewis a UFA? That's going to give most folks pause until it is clear that NE will bring him back, not a guaranteed proposition.

Even if Lewis does, there's too many owners that have been snake-bit by a NE RB to provide a consistent valuation across all leagues.
I could see a few owners giving a 1.08ish pick for him, but his median value shakes out to around 2.05 for me. I just can't see him going for a 1st in more than a handful of leagues.
Wait, after his usage the past 2 years, you think people WANT Dion back in NE??

I would like to see him go somewhere that he'll catch some passes. For instance, how crazy would it be if Bell walks and Dion lands in PIT?

 
Wait, after his usage the past 2 years, you think people WANT Dion back in NE??

I would like to see him go somewhere that he'll catch some passes. For instance, how crazy would it be if Bell walks and Dion lands in PIT?
He's going to be 28 in September. I can't imagine that there's a great track record for backs at that age to change teams and find success.
To me, the best chance he has at having significant value for 2018 is to stay in NE having killed it to close out '17.

Burkhead walks, White is around, but isn't seen as more than a COP guy and Gillislee is the potential vulture.
I just can't see Dion Lewis getting a significant crack at starting on a new team and if he ended up on the Steelers sans Bell, I suspect Connor's value would rival Lewis's and both would be surpassed by whomever the Steelers drafted in rounds 2-4.

 
First, isn't Dion Lewis a UFA? That's going to give most folks pause until it is clear that NE will bring him back, not a guaranteed proposition.

Even if Lewis does, there's too many owners that have been snake-bit by a NE RB to provide a consistent valuation across all leagues.
I could see a few owners giving a 1.08ish pick for him, but his median value shakes out to around 2.05 for me. I just can't see him going for a 1st in more than a handful of leagues.
Like you said, the NE RB position is constantly in flux, just look at last year when they signed Burkhead and Gillislee in the offseason. Now they've got extra picks again in a RB loaded draft. Who knows what they will do this year to confound us all again!

 
He's going to be 28 in September. I can't imagine that there's a great track record for backs at that age to change teams and find success.
To me, the best chance he has at having significant value for 2018 is to stay in NE having killed it to close out '17.

Burkhead walks, White is around, but isn't seen as more than a COP guy and Gillislee is the potential vulture.
I just can't see Dion Lewis getting a significant crack at starting on a new team and if he ended up on the Steelers sans Bell, I suspect Connor's value would rival Lewis's and both would be surpassed by whomever the Steelers drafted in rounds 2-4.
I doubt we're going to find a large pool of data, but I imagine that talented 28 year old RBs do just fine switching teams. It's all about situation and health.

If I had a choice, between stay in NE and walk, I'd vote walk - even without knowing if he'll end up in a crappy backup situation or a good starting job. I just don't trust BB to use him enough to be useful to me in fantasy in non-best ball leagues.

I don't mean to spend too much time on my random PIT hypothetical, but have we seen enough out of Connor to say he's good? And what is the success rate of round 2-4 RBs? We know for a fact that Dion is quite talented. I'll gamble on a known strong talent over an unknown any day. I realize in dynasty unknowns are shiny, desirable toys, but in reality they don't often pan out. Coaches like reliable veterans, especially over rookies.

 
I doubt we're going to find a large pool of data, but I imagine that talented 28 year old RBs do just fine switching teams. It's all about situation and health.

If I had a choice, between stay in NE and walk, I'd vote walk - even without knowing if he'll end up in a crappy backup situation or a good starting job. I just don't trust BB to use him enough to be useful to me in fantasy in non-best ball leagues.

I don't mean to spend too much time on my random PIT hypothetical, but have we seen enough out of Connor to say he's good? And what is the success rate of round 2-4 RBs? We know for a fact that Dion is quite talented. I'll gamble on a known strong talent over an unknown any day. I realize in dynasty unknowns are shiny, desirable toys, but in reality they don't often pan out. Coaches like reliable veterans, especially over rookies.
Which is why I think it would be tough for Lewis to crack 1st round trade value in hypothetical Pitt backfield of Lewis, Connor, 2nd day rookie RB. Most of us "piece of candy" dynasty owners are going to be looking at the new guy as the highest upside guy to own.

In a hypothetical NE backfield of Lewis, Gillislee and White, I think he'd have a better chance of pulling a 1.10 off of someone.

 
I like Lewis more in Pitt with Conner/late round pick than I do in NE, personally.  As an owner, Pitt sans Bell is just about best case scenario.  Conner doesn't scare me and I'm happy to bet on Lewis beating him out.  But even if it's a spit, it's not a 3 way split the way it was in NE, with both the passing down and GL work going elsewhere.

I doubt you'll get a 1st for Lewis, and unless he's your RB5, I wouldn't suggest selling him for less than that.  His actual value exceeds his market value, even if we're only projecting a couple more RB2 seasons.

 
I like Lewis more in Pitt with Conner/late round pick than I do in NE, personally.  As an owner, Pitt sans Bell is just about best case scenario.  Conner doesn't scare me and I'm happy to bet on Lewis beating him out.  But even if it's a spit, it's not a 3 way split the way it was in NE, with both the passing down and GL work going elsewhere.

I doubt you'll get a 1st for Lewis, and unless he's your RB5, I wouldn't suggest selling him for less than that.  His actual value exceeds his market value, even if we're only projecting a couple more RB2 seasons.
Perhaps I'm not gun-shy enough on the Pats backfield. I do agree that it would be rare to obtain a 1st for Lewis without a major change in circumstances.

 
Yeah, he’s my RB4 behind Zeke, Bell and Howard, so I’m hoping for a big post season for him so I can try to pull a late 1st (to pair with my own 1.10) to give me a couple of darts to throw on the rookie RBs. 

To to keep this thread going... (my favorite on the board since the Fear&Loathing thread went stale)...

rank these up and coming WRs....

JuJu

Sheppard

Bryant

Mike Williams

i think I like them in the order I put them in. Thoughts?

 
JuJu

Williams

Shepard

Bryant

JuJu is the clear top option, IMO.  I'm not particularly high on Williams, but his draft pedigree alone is enough for me to take him over the other two. I don't see Shepard as an NFL #1.  As such, he's not likely to put up fantasy WR2 numbers in many situations.  In NY, with a rookie QB, as the 3rd option is not one of them.  Bryant has upside, but comes with a lot of baggage. His next slip up could be the nail.  He'll be in the SA program (random testing) until he retires.  

 
JuJu

Williams

Shepard

Bryant

JuJu is the clear top option, IMO.  I'm not particularly high on Williams, but his draft pedigree alone is enough for me to take him over the other two. I don't see Shepard as an NFL #1.  As such, he's not likely to put up fantasy WR2 numbers in many situations.  In NY, with a rookie QB, as the 3rd option is not one of them.  Bryant has upside, but comes with a lot of baggage. His next slip up could be the nail.  He'll be in the SA program (random testing) until he retires.  
Feel very similar and here is how I'd have them:

JuJu- as you said clear top option, in a class by himself. I believe youngest player in the NFL.  He'll have to endure a QB change soon, but he runs a lot of shorter routes which mitigates that a little.

Williams- I don't mind his lack of production this year as injuries were major factor but those injuries are concerning as he's starting to be an injury list guy. Back and knee this year, neck in college. Put this another way out of his last 3 season injuries have wiped out two of them.

Bryant- he's got major risk and I also think he's a bad egg, bad attitude guy. But fairly young, I believe Steelers part ways with him via trade(and I'll hate it as a Steeler fan because they won't get much back for him) and he'll get a chance to be full time starter next season

Shepard- less upside then the others, barring Giants using Odell as their Herschel Walker trade piece(possible) more of a WR2 type and he has risk with his neck and concussion issues recently.  I don't mind the QB as much with him as Giants are in position to draft one in round one. QB more of long terms issue for Williams and JuJu since their QB's are older and teams to good to get a high pick.

 
Thoughts on my top 12/1st rd? (12 Tm PPR - QRRWWWTF)

T1: OBJ, Gurley, Zeke, Hopkins

T2: Bell, DJ, Brown, Kamara

T3: Evans, Fournette, Hunt, Barkley*

*If Barkley is drafted top 5 as projected, he'll likely jump to the head of T3.  

 
Thoughts on my top 12/1st rd? (12 Tm PPR - QRRWWWTF)

T1: OBJ, Gurley, Zeke, Hopkins

T2: Bell, DJ, Brown, Kamara

T3: Evans, Fournette, Hunt, Barkley*

*If Barkley is drafted top 5 as projected, he'll likely jump to the head of T3.  
I feel a need to get Cook in there somehow, perhaps over Evans?
Weakest I can remember WR being for quite some time. Green and Julio seem to be aging out, OBJ knucklehead factor would likely knock him down to tier 2 for me.
Then a lot of question marks.

 
Thoughts on my top 12/1st rd? (12 Tm PPR - QRRWWWTF)

T1: OBJ, Gurley, Zeke, Hopkins

T2: Bell, DJ, Brown, Kamara

T3: Evans, Fournette, Hunt, Barkley*

*If Barkley is drafted top 5 as projected, he'll likely jump to the head of T3.  
I think I would take everyone in tier 3 over Bell in a startup. The workload added on the other red flags are enough for me to wait until in season to trade for him.

 
I feel a need to get Cook in there somehow, perhaps over Evans?
Weakest I can remember WR being for quite some time. Green and Julio seem to be aging out, OBJ knucklehead factor would likely knock him down to tier 2 for me.
Then a lot of question marks.
I like Cook.  I just don't feel right moving him from the 3rd to 1st round based on a 3.5 game sample size, despite how good he looked.  I wouldn't fault anyone for preferring him to Fournette or Hunt, but personally feel better with the other 2 right now. 

Edit: WR is very weak right now.  I'm not touching Julio or Green in the first.  I actually have Thomas ranked ahead of both of them.  I no longer view Thomas as a system guy--and think he's a legit NFL WR1--but I still wouldn't feel great taking him in the 1st. 

I think I would take everyone in tier 3 over Bell in a startup. The workload added on the other red flags are enough for me to wait until in season to trade for him.
Certainly fair.  I'm still willing to gamble based on the talent and ceiling, but there are some warts.  He'll be 26 next season, and, while certainly not old, it's a knock in that range.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Thoughts on my top 12/1st rd? (12 Tm PPR - QRRWWWTF)

T1: OBJ, Gurley, Zeke, Hopkins

T2: Bell, DJ, Brown, Kamara

T3: Evans, Fournette, Hunt, Barkley*

*If Barkley is drafted top 5 as projected, he'll likely jump to the head of T3.  


I feel a need to get Cook in there somehow, perhaps over Evans?
Weakest I can remember WR being for quite some time. Green and Julio seem to be aging out, OBJ knucklehead factor would likely knock him down to tier 2 for me.
Then a lot of question marks.
I think that Michael Thomas should be in consideration for that bubble 11/12/13 spot, probably over cook, but the two are close as far as im concerned and wouldnt argue with cook over thomas too much.

The top 20-25 guys in a Dynasty startup right now are all so good. Really wanna do another start up

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Top 12 non-PPR WR?

1) Hopkins
2) OBJ
3) Brown
4) M. Thomas
5) J. Jones
6) AJ Green
7) T. Hill
8) Evans
9) K. Allen
10) Cooks
11) Hilton
12) Adams
Missing the cut in no particular order
S. Diggs, A. Theilen, A. Jeffrey, D. Bryant, A. Cooper, S. Watkins, D. Thomas, J Landry, A Robinson

Any major omissions or issues? Where do you put 2017 darlings like Marvin Jones and Robbie Anderson?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Top 12 non-PPR WR?

1) Hopkins
2) OBJ
3) Brown
4) M. Thomas
5) J. Jones
6) AJ Green
7) T. Hill
8) K. Allen
9) B. Cooks
10) TY Hilton
11) D. Adams
12) A. Robinson
Missing the cut in no particular order
S. Diggs, A. Theilen, A. Jeffrey, D. Bryant, A. Cooper, S. Watkins, D. Thomas, J Landry

Any major omissions or issues? Where do you put 2017 darlings like Marvin Jones and Robbie Anderson?
Evans?

Outside of that, it looks good to me.  In non-PPR, I'd likely take HIll over Green.  12 seems high for Robinson, but maybe the WR class is just that weak.

I'm not sure where I'd rank Marvin and Robbie, but I like and am buying both guys.  Jones is under contract for a few more years in DET and is starting to look like the WR1 they paid him to be.  Anderson is a talent.  I'm not sure he's the #1 next year, but I'll gamble on it at his current price, which seems to be an early 2nd.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The Dion Lewis to the Steelers without Bell hypothetical scenario is an interesting one as the Steelers were very successful with an even older DeAngelo Williams as their starter when Bell was out of the picture.

Personally I would be wary of Lewis not just because of his age, which is a significant negative, but also his injury history. I have a hard time believing that Lewis can stay healthy, especially if he were used as a feature RB.

For this reason it seems unlikely to me that the Steelers would sign Lewis to be their feature RB. He seems locked into a time share scenario no matter who he plays for due to his long history of injuries.

As such I do not see him having 1st round value in trades. If you can find an owner who values him that much I would move him.

2nd round rookie value for Lewis seems more likely to me. 

 
The Dion Lewis to the Steelers without Bell hypothetical scenario is an interesting one as the Steelers were very successful with an even older DeAngelo Williams as their starter when Bell was out of the picture.

Personally I would be wary of Lewis not just because of his age, which is a significant negative, but also his injury history. I have a hard time believing that Lewis can stay healthy, especially if he were used as a feature RB.

For this reason it seems unlikely to me that the Steelers would sign Lewis to be their feature RB. He seems locked into a time share scenario no matter who he plays for due to his long history of injuries.

As such I do not see him having 1st round value in trades. If you can find an owner who values him that much I would move him.

2nd round rookie value for Lewis seems more likely to me. 
Outside of NE, that share is likely to include the passing down work, however.  I'm not saying he's Kamara--he's not--but Kamara-eque usage could make him a very solid RB2.  But you bring up a good point.  He's only had 2 healthy seasons to this point in his career.  

 
In regards to the perception of the WRs not being as valuable right now, I wonder if this idea is not overly influenced by recency bias?

Wide receivers have not been producing as much this year (or last year) as they had been for a few seasons prior to that.

There is a confluence of circumstances causing this.

Some of the best QBs such as Peyton Manning have recently left the league.

Teams have been throwing to RB and TE a bit more than they were for a few seasons in the recent past.

RB talent has improved recently.

The enforcement of the no chuck rule may have become relaxed recently.

Some of the best WR were injured this season, or their QBs were injured. For example OBJ, Luck, Robinson, Watson, Tannehill ect.

How many of these things are sustainable trends affecting WR performance?

I think it may be too soon to assume that WR performance will not improve again as soon as next season, but I would need to give this a bit more thought first supported by some research before making a guess about where the league may be headed in the near future.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top