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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (15 Viewers)

Biabreakable said:
In regards to the perception of the WRs not being as valuable right now, I wonder if this idea is not overly influenced by recency bias?

Wide receivers have not been producing as much this year (or last year) as they had been for a few seasons prior to that.

There is a confluence of circumstances causing this.

Some of the best QBs such as Peyton Manning have recently left the league.

Teams have been throwing to RB and TE a bit more than they were for a few seasons in the recent past.

RB talent has improved recently.

The enforcement of the no chuck rule may have become relaxed recently.

Some of the best WR were injured this season, or their QBs were injured. For example OBJ, Luck, Robinson, Watson, Tannehill ect.

How many of these things are sustainable trends affecting WR performance?

I think it may be too soon to assume that WR performance will not improve again as soon as next season, but I would need to give this a bit more thought first supported by some research before making a guess about where the league may be headed in the near future.
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Throw in some disappointing offenses in ATL and CIN and a shaky start to the year with Big Ben. 

 
Biabreakable said:
The Dion Lewis to the Steelers without Bell hypothetical scenario is an interesting one as the Steelers were very successful with an even older DeAngelo Williams as their starter when Bell was out of the picture.

Personally I would be wary of Lewis not just because of his age, which is a significant negative, but also his injury history. I have a hard time believing that Lewis can stay healthy, especially if he were used as a feature RB.

For this reason it seems unlikely to me that the Steelers would sign Lewis to be their feature RB. He seems locked into a time share scenario no matter who he plays for due to his long history of injuries.

As such I do not see him having 1st round value in trades. If you can find an owner who values him that much I would move him.

2nd round rookie value for Lewis seems more likely to me. 
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Agreed. Which is why I plan on selling when the iron is hot if he puts up a stellar post season. Even if it’s for a high 2nd, I’ll take it. 

 
4 of the last 5 WR classes have been weak (or are off to a slow start, at least).   The incoming class isn't much to write home about either.   

Edit: Make that 5 of the last 6.  For whatever reason, the NFL is not very good at identifying WR talent right now.  It's interesting how much of the current WR pool of talent came from just 2 draft classes (11,14).

 
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Gawain said:
Which is why I think it would be tough for Lewis to crack 1st round trade value in hypothetical Pitt backfield of Lewis, Connor, 2nd day rookie RB. Most of us "piece of candy" dynasty owners are going to be looking at the new guy as the highest upside guy to own.

In a hypothetical NE backfield of Lewis, Gillislee and White, I think he'd have a better chance of pulling a 1.10 off of someone.
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Ah, my bad, I was mainly just talking about what's best for Dion's fantasy upside (points-wise, not trade value). I had totally glossed over the talk of trading him for a late first. On that part of the topic, I agree with Coop's take that if you've got him, you should probably just hang onto him. Unless you're stacked, his fantasy value to your team is likely higher than his trade value.

 
Concept Coop said:
4 of the last 5 WR classes have been weak (or are off to a slow start, at least).   The incoming class isn't much to write home about either.   

Edit: Make that 5 of the last 6.  For whatever reason, the NFL is not very good at identifying WR talent right now.  It's interesting how much of the current WR pool of talent came from just 2 draft classes (11,14).
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It's fun trying to rank the top 5 WRs from some of these classes, especially right now:

2012:
1) TY Hilton
2) Alshon Jeffery
3) Marvin Jones
4) Mohamed Sanu
5) Rishard Matthews

2013:
1) DeAndre Hopkins
2) Keenan Allen
3) Kenny Stills
4) Marquise Goodwin
5) Robert Woods

 
Andrew74 said:
Throw in some disappointing offenses in ATL and CIN and a shaky start to the year with Big Ben. 
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Yeah there have been a lot of different things connected with the WRs not doing as well this year. In regards to the Bengals I think its the offensive line play not being able to protect as well as a cause for it.

As you mention Atlanta hasn't produced as many passing yards as last year. That is mostly a change at offensive coordinator and regression to the mean I think. Theres really a lot of things that can derail a passing game and therefore the receivers productivity.

 
Concept Coop said:
4 of the last 5 WR classes have been weak (or are off to a slow start, at least).   The incoming class isn't much to write home about either.   

Edit: Make that 5 of the last 6.  For whatever reason, the NFL is not very good at identifying WR talent right now.  It's interesting how much of the current WR pool of talent came from just 2 draft classes (11,14).
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Not to quibble but 2014 was just 4 seasons ago not 5 or 6.

It was a remarkably strong WR class and a lot of them produced right away as well. That doesn't usually happen. It generally does take a WR a 2-3 years before they start performing near their peak level. It doesn't really surprise me that the 2014 WR class is dominating the top 20 or so of WRs right now. Thats something I expected to happen based on its strength, and they are all in the primes of their careers right now.

That said there is always a good one or more WR from each draft class, and some of the more recent ones haven't had enough time to really prove themselves. Amari Cooper for example had a very disappointing season this year, as has Carr. Its possible they end up turning this around next season and Cooper is right there with the top receivers again if he does.

Keenan Allen is an example of a receiver who proved he was good when healthy, but missed time to injury. Look at what he has done this year, he is right up there with the top WR right now. Just a reminder to maybe not give up on these guys too quickly, things happen that causes them to have off years.

The Packers receivers haven't been as good this year because of Rodgers being injured, another example of what is hurting WR productivity overall this year.

 
Biabreakable said:
Not to quibble but 2014 was just 4 seasons ago not 5 or 6.

It was a remarkably strong WR class and a lot of them produced right away as well. That doesn't usually happen. It generally does take a WR a 2-3 years before they start performing near their peak level. It doesn't really surprise me that the 2014 WR class is dominating the top 20 or so of WRs right now. Thats something I expected to happen based on its strength, and they are all in the primes of their careers right now.

That said there is always a good one or more WR from each draft class, and some of the more recent ones haven't had enough time to really prove themselves. Amari Cooper for example had a very disappointing season this year, as has Carr. Its possible they end up turning this around next season and Cooper is right there with the top receivers again if he does.

Keenan Allen is an example of a receiver who proved he was good when healthy, but missed time to injury. Look at what he has done this year, he is right up there with the top WR right now. Just a reminder to maybe not give up on these guys too quickly, things happen that causes them to have off years.

The Packers receivers haven't been as good this year because of Rodgers being injured, another example of what is hurting WR productivity overall this year.
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Right.  I was saying that 2014 is the one good class going back to 2011; not that 2014 was 5 or 6 seasons ago.  And of course it's too early to write off the last few, but not too early to say they've disappointed to this point. 

I think the awful hit rate correlates with the underwhelming group we have now.  I don't think college programs are doing a great job producing NFL ready talent at the WR spot.  I think the same can be said of the offensive line.  I'm not arguing for any kind of philosophical change in how we value the WR spot, by any means, these things ebb and flow.   

 
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Going back to the WR discussion, where are people on the top-2 Minnesota WR currently? Diggs had been buried after his injury, but the last three games have been a WR1/WR1A feel.

Diggs: 24 Targets, 16 receptions, 154 yards, 2 TD, 10 rushing yards
Theilen: 24 Targets, 11 receptions, 159 yards, 1 TD

Which is the one to own for 2017, or will they be so similar in stats that neither will make more than a nice WR3?

 
Gawain said:
Going back to the WR discussion, where are people on the top-2 Minnesota WR currently? Diggs had been buried after his injury, but the last three games have been a WR1/WR1A feel.

Diggs: 24 Targets, 16 receptions, 154 yards, 2 TD, 10 rushing yards
Theilen: 24 Targets, 11 receptions, 159 yards, 1 TD

Which is the one to own for 2017, or will they be so similar in stats that neither will make more than a nice WR3?
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Maybe I'm just too slow to react to change, but I still like Diggs. Especially for dynasty.

 
FF Ninja said:
Maybe I'm just too slow to react to change, but I still like Diggs. Especially for dynasty.
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I do as well, but there is enough to ensure that both are fed.

My biggest question regarding the Vikings is who will be playing QB. I'm not a believer in Keenum long term but Bridgewater is coming off a major in injury and Bradford is the most brittle QB in recent memory. 

 
FF Ninja said:
Maybe I'm just too slow to react to change, but I still like Diggs. Especially for dynasty.
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He's done the same thing every year. Huge start the first month, massive fade after that (usually banged up) with the occasional good game. 

How many times do we see the exact same trend before we accept that it's a trend? 

 
Ack88 said:
My biggest question regarding the Vikings is who will be playing QB. I'm not a believer in Keenum long term but Bridgewater is coming off a major in injury and Bradford is the most brittle QB in recent memory. 
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I'd consider it a major plus to both of them that they played well even when they had to go to second QB and third QB options.

I've been big on Diggs for awhile, back when this was a positive compliment I thought he was pretty similar to Cooper. But the big knock with him is constant ailments and his inability to perform when not 100%.  I forget the exact stat but the weeks he's on the injury report vs not are incredibly different. So if I had to pick one I'd take Thielen.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
He's done the same thing every year. Huge start the first month, massive fade after that (usually banged up) with the occasional good game. 

How many times do we see the exact same trend before we accept that it's a trend? 
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This season he had a strong finish at least. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
He's done the same thing every year. Huge start the first month, massive fade after that (usually banged up) with the occasional good game. 

How many times do we see the exact same trend before we accept that it's a trend? 
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 The quarterback situation makes the reality versus perception of the season very difficult to gauge for Diggs. 

 One man’s opinion, but as the story goes, wide receivers don’t make their own numbers. They are reliant on a quarterback throwing them the ball. 

 Clearly case Keenum had a better rapport with Adam Thelen  them with Diggs. And while Diggs Fantasy numbers didn’t always show it, he absolutely made some big catches for first downs that led to the Vikings winning football games. 

 So in my opinion, Diggs future value is closely tied to whom ever the starting quarterback is for 2018 and beyond. 

 I believe the talent is there and that he has a next level. 

 
So what kinds of players are going to be able to be had for the #2 rookie pick?  What good existing vets would you be willing to give for that pick in 12 team PPR leagues?

 
Dez value (non-ppr)? Would love to move him this off-season?

Guess I try to find a sucker, er, owner who might give up. Late 1st?

 
ghostguy123 said:
I would just keep pick 2 this yead if those were my best options.   Except maybe in the FFPC i would maybe take Kelce
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I own pick 2 in two different FFPC leagues and would be no across the board for me.  If Green Bay cut Jordy and resigned Adams I might have to consider him if I need a WR, but based on what I know now these would all be easy no's.

 
menobrown said:
I own pick 2 in two different FFPC leagues and would be no across the board for me.  If Green Bay cut Jordy and resigned Adams I might have to consider him if I need a WR, but based on what I know now these would all be easy no's.
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Yeah maybe.  No idea how Kelce will do with Mahomes.  

What about guys like Julio?  Green?  If my team needed a rebuild i could see making a deal that is very close to straight up for pick 2.  

 
ghostguy123 said:
Yeah maybe.  No idea how Kelce will do with Mahomes.  

What about guys like Julio?  Green?  If my team needed a rebuild i could see making a deal that is very close to straight up for pick 2.  
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I own both of those WR's on a few teams that are not rebuild teams and if someone offered me pick 2 for them I'm accepting. I would not trade AB for that pick so I guess I can't say I'd always deal a 29/30 year old stud WR for a 21 year old RB I project as a stud, but I would most of the time.

 
I think in a vacuum 1.02 for Green/Julio is a decent deal, but when push comes to shove guys would shy away from moving those two for a pick now. (Hell, the consensus FBG rankings still put those two at 5 and 6, for all the good the rankings are worth.)

I think you're in the next group with 1.02, Allen/Cooks/Hilton/Adams range

 
ghostguy123 said:
So what kinds of players are going to be able to be had for the #2 rookie pick?  What good existing vets would you be willing to give for that pick in 12 team PPR leagues?
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The first two RB's will be gone by the 2/3 swing, so whoever is in that area.  Tyreek Hill, Josh Gordon, Cooks, Freeman, guys in that tier.  Maybe Gronkowski, Rodgers.

 
The delta between 1 & 2 will get smaller after the underwear olympics and draft/landing spots. Someone usually emerges to make a strong top two. So if you’re selling AJ, I’d try to swing it now. I don’t think AJ gets it done in June when that top 2 is more solidified. Julio is an instant accept for me if I’m selling the 1.2, now and later. 

 
Magic_Man said:
Diggs is worth the 1.2? If his value is that high, I'd rather move him for players...I think. In the league where I own him, I do own the 1.1 pick. Is there a WR worth taking at 1.2 this year as of now?
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That's the thing. It's not sounding like there's a slam dunk WR prospect this year, so I think the true value of a player like Diggs depends on the individual team's roster make up. That's why Adams is worth the 1.02 for me, especially since I'm set at RB in the league where I own Adams, so I wouldn't move him for the 1.02. 

 
Wondering what sort of pick a "buyer" would pay for Mccoy these days.  I can see paying a 1st.  The question is how high of a 1st.

 
joey said:
That's the thing. It's not sounding like there's a slam dunk WR prospect this year, so I think the true value of a player like Diggs depends on the individual team's roster make up. That's why Adams is worth the 1.02 for me, especially since I'm set at RB in the league where I own Adams, so I wouldn't move him for the 1.02. 
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I would love to move Diggs for Adams.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Wondering what sort of pick a "buyer" would pay for Mccoy these days.  I can see paying a 1st.  The question is how high of a 1st.
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Not sure now, but pre-season I sold McCoy in PPR dynasty for 2018 1st rounder, Gronk & Adams. Funny thing is, he & I met in the title game last week & I won with Adams on the bench lol

 
Magic_Man said:
Diggs is worth the 1.2? If his value is that high, I'd rather move him for players...I think. In the league where I own him, I do own the 1.1 pick. Is there a WR worth taking at 1.2 this year as of now?
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I'm not saying he's worth it, but that's about who you can get for the 1.02 right now.  He's going ahead of Guice in startup mocks.  I'm sure the 1.02 will demand a fair bit more than Diggs soon enough - and maybe now in some leagues.  

 
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ghostguy123 said:
So who are the (at this time) clear top 2 or 3 RBs?
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Probably Zeke, Gurley, and DJ. Although I think the gap between them and the next group will shrink by May.

 
ghostguy123 said:
I like to use my picks for deals quite a bit of the time.

Lotta sashi brown trade down type deals incorporated i that.
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I rarely trade up. I do a lot of trading down and adding future picks.

I'll use excess picks to patch holes on the roster, but try to stick to mid rounders. Then move good expendable players for future ones in season. 

Almost always have 3-4+ picks in the first 2 rounds.

 
Magic_Man said:
Silly IMO. Trade to make YOUR team better, no matter who the other guy is. I traded Zeke to the DJ owner, but I improved my team too.
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Maybe silly to you, but I don’t like to make the top 1 or 2 teams better. Plenty of other trade partners for me. Obviously, if I’m offered a great deal, I will take it. But usually the top teams are top teams for a reason.

 
JackReacher said:
Maybe silly to you, but I don’t like to make the top 1 or 2 teams better. Plenty of other trade partners for me. Obviously, if I’m offered a great deal, I will take it. But usually the top teams are top teams for a reason.
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Because we trade &draft better than you it seems lol

 
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