JackReacher
Footballguy
Am I in your league? I hope not, because I wouldn’t want to face Zeke and DJ next year.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
NeverEnough
Footballguy
That's ok because I have Ingram & Fournette & the 1.01 pick from another trade. I'm good
DropKick
Footballguy
Eye of the beholder perhaps but I don't think Diggs comes close to the 1.2. In my leagues, demand for RBs is returning to its glory days (and it never really went away).
DropKick
Footballguy
Comfortable with DJ and Kamara but still trying to trade for the 1.01. Thinking a pair of quality players; Howard/Juju perhaps? Team has great depth and could make a legitimate bid for 1.01.
Tau837
Footballguy
Agree, Diggs seems considerably overvalued in this thread. I own the 1.2 in a PPR dynasty league and would not even consider trading it for Diggs.
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I'm in several leagues where I face that combo. Makes sense because those leagues all have draft playoffs and DJ went on a tear during the playoff weeks and won a lot of his owners Elliot.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thoughts on LeVeon going forward? I think I'll be looking to sell him this offseason. This is partly due to having an aging team that needs to retool but a few other reasons..
- Free agent status. I think he's likely to return to PIT but this is no guarantee
- Aging Big Ben. Big Ben may retire, and if he doesn't he is still just one significant injury from hanging it up. PIT offense could fall off a cliff without him
- Injury history, combined with major workload this season
- IMO this will be the last offseason you can get full value before his age starts to bring his price down
I'll probably be looking to try and swing something like the 1.01 plus another decent piece or McCaffrey/Cook/Mixon + a couple 1sts
- Free agent status. I think he's likely to return to PIT but this is no guarantee
- Aging Big Ben. Big Ben may retire, and if he doesn't he is still just one significant injury from hanging it up. PIT offense could fall off a cliff without him
- Injury history, combined with major workload this season
- IMO this will be the last offseason you can get full value before his age starts to bring his price down
I'll probably be looking to try and swing something like the 1.01 plus another decent piece or McCaffrey/Cook/Mixon + a couple 1sts
Boone22
Footballguy
I love Bell but there’s no way you’ll get what you’re looking for. You expect someone to give up Barkley + McCaffrey/Cook/Mixon + a couple 1sts? That’s crazy. Even for Bell.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I think you need to wait it out for now. His price will probably jump back up come summer, but the heavy workload is fresh in people's minds and there's uncertainty about him going into 18. Buyers don't like uncertainty.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Assuming Barkley doesnt go to Cleveland, Bell vs pick #1 is an interesting debate.
-OZ-
Footballguy
What is Andrew Luck worth now?
He still has to be a top 5 QB, albeit with more risk than we'd like.
Full disclosure, I'm about to participate in a dispersal draft and he's the guy I'm having the hardest time projecting his slot. Getting a decent qb in the draft won't be tough, so there's no need to reach.
In relation to draft picks, is luck worth a mid first? I'm guessing late first but really I'm not sure.
He still has to be a top 5 QB, albeit with more risk than we'd like.
Full disclosure, I'm about to participate in a dispersal draft and he's the guy I'm having the hardest time projecting his slot. Getting a decent qb in the draft won't be tough, so there's no need to reach.
In relation to draft picks, is luck worth a mid first? I'm guessing late first but really I'm not sure.
I personally wouldn’t pay more than a mid 2nd for him. I don’t like what I’ve read about his injury. Even beyond that, there is a lot of young QB talent out there now. The only QBs commanding a 1st round pick in trade from me would be Rodgers, Wilson, Wentz and Watson.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Different now vs November when I bought him, but I got him for Rivers and spare idp parts.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
With the recent RB talk, Melvin Gordon seems like a sell so what would he be worth to some in a PPR league? I'm thinking the 1.04-1.07 depending on how high you are on some of those projected guys. But I could be wrong. Am I being too optimistic about him?
We have a pretty clear top5 RB's for dynasty in Bell, DJ, Zeke, Gurley, Barkley it seems. Then there's questions on everyone after, like Howard (not much of a pass catcher), Freeman (being used more as a feature back but Coleman is still there), and then guys like Hunt, Kamara, McCaffrey, Fournette, and Cook all vying for those spots too.
We have a pretty clear top5 RB's for dynasty in Bell, DJ, Zeke, Gurley, Barkley it seems. Then there's questions on everyone after, like Howard (not much of a pass catcher), Freeman (being used more as a feature back but Coleman is still there), and then guys like Hunt, Kamara, McCaffrey, Fournette, and Cook all vying for those spots too.
joey
Footballguy
Gordon would have to be my RB4 for me to sell him for a mid-first since those rookie picks already start getting into "dart throw" territory imo. I have him as my 2nd/3rd RB in one non-ppr league (with Gurley and Hunt) and I don't know if I'd give up the "sure thing" of Gordon for a mid-first. Granted, when I watch Gordon play, I see a really good RB, while others simply see a volume-dependent RB.Zyphros said:
Zyphros
Footballguy
I guess I'm trying to figure out the middle ground between guys like you who see a good RB and the guys who see the volume dependent RB. So the guys that see a really good RB like you wouldn't sell for a mid 1st, would you sell for Guice who my guess is the 1.02?
joey
Footballguy
Admittedly, I don't follow college football so I just follow the heard when it comes to rookie rankings, but if the word is that Guice is looking like a shoe in at 1.02, and a tier ahead of the other RBs, then I'd probably sell Gordon for him. Again, if it trust another shark pool thread that says there's a top 4 grouping of RBs and then a drop off, not sure I'd trade Gordon for anyone below that group of 4. Ok, I'm obviously out of my depth when talking about rookie RBs at this time of year
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Zyphros said:
I don't know if this helps, but as a Gordon owner I recently turned down Mixon + Mike Williams + late (devy-weakened) 1st. PPR, start 2-4 RBs.
Pampernick
Footballguy
offered L Miller, A Jeffery, 3.06 for Gordon, 2.04Zyphros said:
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
FWIW, I would put Hunt, Kamara, Fournette, and Cook closer to DJ/Bell than I would to Howard/Freeman. I wouldn't trade any of those guys for Gordon (without something substantial added - more than a mid-late 1st).Zyphros said:
EBF
Footballguy
Never been a Gordon believer, but 3.8 career YPC on a lot of carries isn't spectacular. On talent alone, there are plenty of backs I'd rather have. His saving grace is that he's developed as a pass catcher, which has given him another way to get yards even when it's not happening for him on the ground.
With a first round startup pick I want an elite player though and I'm not convinced he's that.
With a first round startup pick I want an elite player though and I'm not convinced he's that.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I would probably take that even without the 1st.
Miller is junk IMO. That is like Jeffery for Gordon. Gordon isn't great, but I would sit on him instead of that.
EBF
Footballguy
If Mixon keeps his head on straight then I think he'll be every bit as good as Gordon, if not better. However, he seems to be a bit of a fool. Putting aside the incident in college, I didn't always like his demeanor this season and the way he celebrated every 5 yard run like he'd just won the Super Bowl. Still, as a Mixon owner I'd honestly hesitate to deal him straight up for Gordon. Just think there's still a lot of untapped potential there.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
So many 2018 players are rostered in this devy league that its basically a mid-late 2nd or worse. I didn't really factor it in. And Williams is so risky to me. I told the guy I might do Mixon and a guy like Diggs, but no go.
I can definitely see these arguments, and I'm still struggling with it. Mixon definitely has that upside.
Zyphros
Footballguy
As a JuJu owner and Steelers fan I don't think it's out of the realm of a 3rd round pick. AB is older, I expect Martavis to be gone, Bell might be gone, and Ben is a possible retired guy so that obviously hinders his value a bit. Comfortable, 5th round but I can see a case for a 3rd/4th rounder
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Depends on the league but I think he's a top 20 WR, just below the lines of Diggs, Alshon, and Corey Davis. If I trusted his QB situation long term he'd be equal to those guys.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Why? Mike Williams has done nothing, and the track record of 1st round WRs who don't play much or flash much due to rookie year injuries isn't great. Many already thought he was overdrafted, and Keenan Allen looks better than ever.
That is a nobrainer IMO.
I know you're one who doesn't think Melvin Gordon passes the eye test (I disagree) and cites his YPC as a red flag, but are you really so confident in Mixon that it would only take a little value to get you to do a straight swap?
I am extremely intrigued by Mixon and really want to acquire him, but I'm also higher than average on Melvin. So I'm curious what the thought process is.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Probably gonna fluctuate from early 2nd rounder to 4th or 5th rounder.EBF said:
He just turned 21 a couple months ago and looks like a pretty darn good physical specimen, not to mention he MAKES PLAYS. It isn't like all his play are made because of Ben.
If he works as hard as the great ones did, I have a feeling he has a heck of a shot to be one of them.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Are people seeing this in their leagues? Or in ADP or rankings? I don't think Mixon>Melvin is anything close to a mainstream valuation. Nothing wrong with that, I'm just wondering if those who have responded so far are higher on Mixon than average and lower on Melvin than average, causing this discussion. If not, and "the crowds" just haven't caught up to values that people are seeing in actual leagues, there may be an opportunity for Melvin owners if they can get Mixon+ before the market corrects.
Tau837
Footballguy
I rank Mixon higher than Gordon, so I would trade Gordon for Mixon straight up; I own Mixon in one dynasty league and would not consider trading him for Gordon. While I'm not high on Mike Williams, someone else might be, so I might be able to flip him; worst case, I'm stashing the #7 overall pick on my bench to see if he can emerge next season. And the pick is essentially free, regardless of how much it is weakened by the devy aspect.ConnSKINS26 said:
Like I said, IMO it is a nobrainer.
I think the general consensus is still that Gordon has more value so I would definitely be looking to try and get something else with Mixon in a deal for Gordon. If I couldn’t, I would deal Gordon for Mixon straight up. I think Gordon is an above average RB who has been in an ideal situation the last few years, but I don’t expect that to last forever. Mixon on the other hand I believe is special, one of the 5 most talented RBs in the NFL.
I agree with you. I think that most people would value Gordon over Mixon right now.
I know that I do.
However, if you really believe in Mixon’s talent and ability to remain out of trouble, now is the time to buy- a middling rookie year, a team in transition, and a fresh new crop of incoming RBs creates a nice window for buyers.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am not sure about ADP. I would assume this shows Gordon as higher than Mixon. However many people very high on Mixon as a prospect, so the gap may not be that large. The gap between the two RB being mostly that Gordon is a proven producer, while Mixon is still a question mark.
For the way I tier and rank rookies, both Gordon and Mixon were tier one prospects for me. Gordon has justified that ranking so far in his career, while Mixon hasn't yet.
However I see them as essentially equal in terms of their potential and Mixon is younger. So unless Mixon fails to produce as a top 12 RB in fantasy they have essentially the same value in my view. Mixon is younger and has more opportunity to gain value from where he may be considered currently, while Gordon is already valued pretty highly based on what he has produced so far, that value cannot increase, but could decrease due to age or other factors reducing his opportunity.
I can see going either way here. I think it depends greatly on your personal view of these players and also what your current roster looks like. If your roster is comprised of more older and possibly declining assets, then exchanging one such as Gordon for a younger player may be something you want to do. On the other hand if your roster is full of young unproven players, perhaps you might prefer a more proven player like Gordon, to hopefully have a starter you can count on for the upcoming season.
I think they are worth the same, its just a matter of what your current goals are that determines which one is worth more to you.
I am not particularly high on Mike Williams, however he was a top `10 pick and he could develop into a useful WR for fantasy in the years ahead. To get a player like him on top of Mixon seems like you are gaining value to your roster, if you agree that Gordon and Mixon are somewhat the same value.
You have to weigh this against your roster space as well, but both are top 100 fantasy players I think, so worth holding a roster spot. Then the first also? It seems the value is very much on the Mixon side here, unless you do not believe that Mixon will become a top 12 RB for fantasy within the next two seasons.
Looking at a few different ADP sources.
Here is one for 2018
This has Gordon 5th overall, while Mixon is 25th. So there is a big gap there and one that perhaps you could use to negotiate for a higher return than Mike Williams in addition to Mixon for Gordon. Perhaps this is why the 1st round pick was also offered? Mike Williams is not even top 100 here unless I missed him.
Here is one for 2017
This has Gordon as the 5th overall RB but the 17th overall player. Valuing several WR ahead of him.
Joe Mixon is the 16th RB overall but the 44th overall player. Mike WIlliams is actually valued higher than Mixon on this list as the 23rd WR overall and the 38th overall player.
Mike Clays rankings
It looks like Mike updated these on 28th of December. So very recent. I am sure we all have disagreements with his rankings, but these are at least deep enough and recent enough to use as an idea of how people may value these players.
Clay is not as high on Gordon as these other sources, listing him as the 23rd overall player. Joe Mixon is the 37th overall player and Mike Williams is 76th overall.
ComfortablyNumb
Footballguy
If it's not too late, you should jump on that offer - maybe even get him to sweeten it a little?ConnSKINS26 said:
