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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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NeverEnough
Footballguy
What's the value of late 1st round rookie picks for the upcoming draft?
This is a great list except I gotta disagree on Hill. The guy is a slug. If he lands in the right situation, he could have value as a goal line back, but I can't imagine he's ever as productive as his rookie year. That was the perfect scenario for him.
None of these guys are blue chip players, but they seem undervalued to me:
- Watkins - still valued somewhat highly, but on a relative basis, I think he counts as undervalued.
- Paul Richardson - really depends on the owner, but if the price is right, I'd like to add him
- Cameron Brate - TE is looking thin and he's proven to be capable
- John Brown - sure, sickle cell is a concern, but can probably be snagged as a throw in
- Amendola - all he does it catch everything thrown his way, but he's getting old so another possible throw in
- Decker - still probably has 1-2 years left in him
- McKinnon - I could see him filling a 2017 Duke Johnson type role somewhere
I gotta agree here. Waldman said before the draft that Kamara needed just the right situation to thrive and after the draft he said he got it with Sean Payton. I think Barkley will be good anywhere, but I don't think Kamara is nearly as versatile. Kamara played an enhanced Sproles role this year, getting one carry for every two for Ingram and soaking up a lot of Drew Brees targets. I can't imagine he maintains that TD rate next year even if Brees sticks around (not a guarantee). That being said, Ingram could be a FA if he's named all pro first team which would certainly make things interesting. Kamara is not nearly as physically gifted as Barkley (at least as far as expectations go). I know that's not everything, but it's worth mentioning. I think selling Kamara for 1.02 and 1.05 was a great deal for you.
- Keenan can line up anywhere and be productive as a clear first read/top target. Landry is just a slot guy.
- Keenan is bigger.
- Keenan has played a possession role when the OL was terrible, but proved his versatility this year with 13.7 YPR on 102 receptions. Landry's career high is 12.1 with a career average of 10.1.
Pwingles
Footballguy
So, the knock on the guy is that his skill set and situation are a match? I don't get it...
Isn't that what teams are supposed to do? Bring in guys that fit the system and let them thrive?
Im not faulting or criticizing anyone for thinking Barkely > Kamara, cuz its probably accurate. Just odd seeing some of the anti Kamara points in the last few posts, like he is fake good.
I think it's more likely he gets more opp's next season and could score as many or more FFPs. Having him on the field helps any other NOS fantasy asset you might own as well, imo.
Isn't that what teams are supposed to do? Bring in guys that fit the system and let them thrive?
Im not faulting or criticizing anyone for thinking Barkely > Kamara, cuz its probably accurate. Just odd seeing some of the anti Kamara points in the last few posts, like he is fake good.
I think it's more likely he gets more opp's next season and could score as many or more FFPs. Having him on the field helps any other NOS fantasy asset you might own as well, imo.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Amendola is a dependable target for Brady, but his upside is always limited by his lack of athleticism and his value is based solely on targets. What happens with Edelman and Hogan back next year - and possibly even Malcom Mitchell or another rookie?
I have him on one 30 man roster but would move him in a second if he had nay trade value - he doesn't.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Since there's only one RB slot on the all pro team now and with Gurley and Bell in the mix, the odds of Ingram being an all-pro is slim.
The guy I was replying to was talking about undervalued free agents so the hope is that he won't be competing with Edelman, Hogan, and Mitchell. With Amendola's sticky hands, I think he could easily grab 80 rec in the right situation. I'm not saying it's likely, but he can be had as a throw in at this point which makes him undervalued to me. I wouldn't want to go into the season with him as my WR3, but if you get hit by a couple bad injuries, he's a guy I'd like to have on my bench to fill in. But again, it all depends on where he goes. And if you get him as a throw in but he lands as somebody's WR4, just drop him.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I understand the concerns about his TD rate not being sustainable and him being in a great system that could go away in the near future - but watching him he looks special. His balance and vision is amazing. His balance and body leans make him tough to bring down despite being a bit slender and his speed and agility allow for the big plays.
I am not ranking Barkley yet, and if push came to shove I'd likely trade Kamara for the 1.01 if offered, but I have Kamara ranked 5th right now, and I'm fully confident in that ranking. He doesn't have to be a part time back - he's fully capable of being a feature back and while this very likely may be his "best" fantasy season I see many great seasons ahead.
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Situation only lasts for so long. I hadn't seen it when I replied, but I think it was FreeBagel who summed it up nicely. Brees turns 39 in two weeks and is a free agent. Sean Payton is constantly on the hot seat. In dynasty, I'd like a little more stability than that when a guy's situation is almost certainly a large part of his success. I mean, we're talking about one single season with 120 rushes. Coop makes some good points, but to say the Saints averaged 2 more yards per play with Kamara on the field than Ingram is extremely misleading. Kamara got almost as many targets as rushes and targets always average more yards than carries. Also, this wouldn't be the first time we've seen a less talented RB produce more per touch than the starter. We need only look back to McCoy & Gillislee a year ago. Kamara's rushing numbers look eerily similar to Gillislee's 2016 when he was the CoP to McCoy. When he got forced into a more predictable early down role, things fell apart for Gillislee despite playing on a better overall offense than Buffalo. Obviously, if playing PPR, Kamara's fantasy value mainly comes from the passing game but that kind of volume and production is unlikely to be found outside of a Brees/Payton system.
So I'm not saying Kamara is a fake good, but I wouldn't be shocked if his rookie year is far and away the best of his career. I would actually bet money on it if Brees leaves as a FA.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Carlos Hyde is an interesting risk reward guy right now.
If San Francisco lets him walk, which is possible, his value could be anywhere from stud feature back to rb2.
For him to leave though it would almost have to be for lead back money, because San Francisco could keep him and build elsewhere. Unless they really want Barkley, which is obviously possible but hard to plan for after their late season win streak.
If they don't sign Hyde or another veteran, they will need to draft one. They have Breida, who is decent but small, and their high priced fullback, but that offense revolves around the running back and one who can catch.
They have a top 10 pick (9 or 10 depending on a coin toss) and then a late second (from the saints via trade last year) and their own third. It's a deep draft at rb, but they will be picking outside the sweet spot for barkley and for the second tier backs. They need to make a decision before the draft, which probably favors them at least making an offer for Hyde or some other veteran back.
Which brings us back to him staying in San Francisco. If they keep him and don't draft a stud rookie - two big ifs - the payoff could be huge. Shanahan has pointed out that it took a year to get Freeman and Ryan to totally own his system.
Hyde just had a 240 rush, 940 yards, 8 tds, 59 rec, 350 yards season and filled the box score in a bad team. But there's some concern since Jimmy g came in, because Hyde had just 83/301/4 and 10/55 receiving in those 5 starts.
I think an off-season together with Hyde would be more likely to lead to him getting back to his previous pace - 157/639 rushing and 49/295 receiving through 11 games - but raising his touchdown potential to his late season pace (4 scores in 5 games).
In other words, he has devonta freeman potential.
He's going to turn 27 during the 2018 season - which is an age where backs often put up their best seasons. He's probably got 3 years of strong production left but his exit value will never really sky rocket because he's entering the back 9 of his career.
I'm a buyer for anything less than a top 5 pick. I'm a seller around pick 5 if I'm rebuilding. Anything less and I'll take a shot at the upside. He's ranked in the 40ish range on early startup lists which feels like a reasonable place to get some value.
If San Francisco lets him walk, which is possible, his value could be anywhere from stud feature back to rb2.
For him to leave though it would almost have to be for lead back money, because San Francisco could keep him and build elsewhere. Unless they really want Barkley, which is obviously possible but hard to plan for after their late season win streak.
If they don't sign Hyde or another veteran, they will need to draft one. They have Breida, who is decent but small, and their high priced fullback, but that offense revolves around the running back and one who can catch.
They have a top 10 pick (9 or 10 depending on a coin toss) and then a late second (from the saints via trade last year) and their own third. It's a deep draft at rb, but they will be picking outside the sweet spot for barkley and for the second tier backs. They need to make a decision before the draft, which probably favors them at least making an offer for Hyde or some other veteran back.
Which brings us back to him staying in San Francisco. If they keep him and don't draft a stud rookie - two big ifs - the payoff could be huge. Shanahan has pointed out that it took a year to get Freeman and Ryan to totally own his system.
Hyde just had a 240 rush, 940 yards, 8 tds, 59 rec, 350 yards season and filled the box score in a bad team. But there's some concern since Jimmy g came in, because Hyde had just 83/301/4 and 10/55 receiving in those 5 starts.
I think an off-season together with Hyde would be more likely to lead to him getting back to his previous pace - 157/639 rushing and 49/295 receiving through 11 games - but raising his touchdown potential to his late season pace (4 scores in 5 games).
In other words, he has devonta freeman potential.
He's going to turn 27 during the 2018 season - which is an age where backs often put up their best seasons. He's probably got 3 years of strong production left but his exit value will never really sky rocket because he's entering the back 9 of his career.
I'm a buyer for anything less than a top 5 pick. I'm a seller around pick 5 if I'm rebuilding. Anything less and I'll take a shot at the upside. He's ranked in the 40ish range on early startup lists which feels like a reasonable place to get some value.
Well I think it’s a lot more likely that great situation he is in changes for the worse rather than the better. NO RBs scored over 50% more points than the league average last season. Do you think that is sustainable or a bit of an outlier? His success is in a lot of ways tied to Brees and Payton, and who knows how long they will stick around. Barkley on the other hand can thrive in any scheme or situation in the league. That’s the key difference for me
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I hear you and don't mean to imply trading for him won't pay off, but the primary reason I am trading for draft picks is to play on the uncertainty factor, make a good pick, and earn the equity that comes with it. Using made up maths, if I pay $50 for a draft pick and get Alvin Kamara, he's worth $100 just a couple of months later. I'm either getting $100 worth of points in my lineup or I can trade him for $100 worth of other equity but either way I'm up $50.
But now, today, having to pay $100 for Barkley just doesn't make any economic sense. I can just wait until August and pay $100 when I'm in the mode of putting points in my lineup. If I can trade 1.02 and Evans for him today I can trade Guice and Evans for him in September. Hell Guice will probably increase in value by then too and I can trade Guice and Diggs for him instead.
There's just no economic growth potential for him because people are buying him at his economic cap. I definitely agree he's "worth" that in the sense of the points being put into the lineup, and if you pay top 5 prices for a guy and get top 5 points from him you're doing it right. But when looking at draft picks I gotta get some kind of discount for the uncertainty factor, and that's no longer there with Barkley.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
agree with this to an extent but ultimately the deciding factor is just how good is Barkely? If he turns out to be LT or Faulk (entirely possible in the right offense) and blow away the league in PPR RB points he will wind up more valuable than what you are paying now. I don't disagree that you could make the same /similar deal in the summer but if he lives up to the hype once the season starts it will be too late. I disagree on your notion of an 'economic cap'. Back in the day when LT and Faulk were in their prime they were so valuable it wasn't funny. It was like them and then a big step down to everyone else. There is still upside as nobody really knows what his ceiling is. If he is Gurley on the ground and McCaffrey through the air and is built to handle 30 plus touches a game the sky is the limit.
Note - not saying this will happen but it is one possible outcome so the move still could pay off. I could understand someone paying the price now is all I'm saying, there is risk and there is also potential upside still
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I Iooked it up and Brate is a RFA, so he's likely stuck in TB one more year and in a lot less plays than he was at the beginning of 2017. I agree he could be a good pickup, but maybe for 2019.
McKinnon is a decent player, but given his injury history and inconsistency, I think it's a good time to sell him if you can get a decent 2nd round pick. He had some memorable big plays this year, but overall he was only decent. He should be a consistent 3rd down back but that's his ceiling. They pounded Murray for a reason.
How does NE play out? Do they cut Gillislee and re-sign both Lewis and Burkhead, or has Lewis earned too big a payday? I like both players regardless of whether they are in NE. If Lewis is gone, then Burkhead is too cheap right now.
Payton is not on the hot seat and the Saints just had an amazing draft. Also Brees is not leaving.
Situations don't last forever, that is true, but Kamara is not situation dependent either.
This will sound harsh but if you watched Gillislee run last year and Kamara this year I don't think anyone would make the comp between the two. There is more then stats available to the naked eye to see when a player is special, you just spent a few sentences trying to turn Kamara's magical rookie year into a solid backup season that Gillislee had. No dice.
Kamara is really that good. I'd still take Barkley over him, but he's that good.
So saying this to me equals you are saying the success is in zero way dependent on Kamara being good.
The Kamara takes in here are awful. Predictable, but awful.
johnadams
Footballguy
Don't really know. I'm not saying it's right. It's just what I'm seeing. Take off the elite level, but someone like Freeman +1.02 will get the conversation moving. But if you show up with 1.02 and Hyde, it probably won't happen. I'm going off what I'm seeing here and elsewhere.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Fair enough. There is some value in playing outside. But Landry has put up numbers 4 years in a row now, in 2 different systems, and with 3 different QBs. I think it's perfectly reasonable to prefer KA, but I think it's a lot closer than the current market value. I'll gladly take Landry mid-3rd over Allen mid-2nd in a startup. Give me Landry over Cooper and Diggs--guys who are still being valued more highly for some reason.FF Ninja said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
What do you think he's worth today? And what is he worth if Lewis is gone? Late 2nd, early 2nd?thriftyrocker said:
Pwingles
Footballguy
I don't necessarily agree with the bolded, but its certainly possible.Raback said:
We assume that he can/will. I feel that way personally, but we don't "know" anything.
I think the fact that this discussion is even happening is super interesting. The hair splitting between these two. In a start up, most everyone has Saquan as a top 3-5 RB, and Kamara is not. There is absolutely nothing wrong with this. However, the tone of this thread would have you think that they're comparable players. Even though general opinions here, on twitter, and in mocks I've been seeing pretty much all agree that Kamara is fringe elite. A back end of round 1 or early round 2 pick in a startup. Yet somehow the Barkley drum beaters are trying to make arguments that for Barkley to actually be elite, you need to find holes in Kamaras game to prove that. They're not mutually exclusive and these arguments arent necessary.
Kamara is good. Even if he hit his ceiling, this was a really good fantasy year. 85-90% of this production is still really good.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think you misunderstood me. The Saints as an offense averaged 2 more yards per play with Kamara on the field than they did with him on the bench. No other RB in the league saw that drop. Not Zeke (to Morris), not Bell (to Conner), and not passing backs Cohen and Ekeler. Part of that is utilization, but not all. Payton uses Ingram plenty in passing situations and Kamara plenty in obvious running situations. We saw what the NO offense looked like after Kamara went down against ATL - and it was night and day. Now that isn't a reason to prefer him over Barkley, but it speaks to him being a special talent, assuming some are not convinced.FF Ninja said:
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Watkins just finished 4th on his team in targets and receptions, behind Robert Woods (who missed a couple games) and Cooper Kupp. That's a huge, huge red flag for me. A lot of the guys I respect and follow (McDowell, ZWK, etc.) still value him as a high-end WR2. I don't get that, personally. He was essentially a post-PIT Mike Wallace this season. I'd pay a pick in the 1.11-1.12 range, but have a feeling it will cost a lot more than that to land him. And if we want to talk about TD rates...FF Ninja said:
Pwingles
Footballguy
I would like to see where he ends up this off season. There are some good possible landing spots where he might end up on a 1 year deal and ball out. Or flame out. 50/50
I think soon in this case took place in 2017. I did not do a startup last year but pretty sure then and now if I'm lining up something like RB's under 25 vs WR's under 25 I view as something like top 2-3 round startup value the RB's would whip them.fruity pebbles said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I am pretty sure Hyde is 27 and will turn 28 next year. He was a 5yr sr and NFL.com shows him at 27YO today.bostonfred said:
kutta
Footballguy
I think he's 26 right now. Some sites have him at 27 and some at 26. The 49ers' webpage has him at 26. It seems like that would be pretty accurate.
http://www.49ers.com/team/roster/carlos-hyde/4f42b0dc-515b-4f87-a1d6-f01ad9b53825
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Good call on Brate. And I wouldn't pay a 2nd for McKinnon. If that's the going rate, then I should take him off my list.thriftyrocker said:
NE is going to be very interesting to watch. I believe the Pats have $0 dead money if they release Gillislee so I expect that to happen after this year. Dion just had a very nice finish to the season so I'm hoping he goes elsewhere. His usage in NE is too frustrating to watch. If Gillislee and Dion depart, but they re-sign Burkhead then I agree that Burkhead will be a bargain if you buy him at his current rate. But that's a huge gamble. I wouldn't be shocked to see them bring in someone totally unexpected like Doug Martin.
Payton is always on and off the hot seat. Wasn't there talk of NO trading Payton this offseason? And I don't know how you can say Brees isn't leaving. He's unrestricted. He could easily go play in Denver if he wanted to and probably win a championship. I doubt Minnesota pursues him but that would be another great spot for him.menobrown said:
How can you say Kamara is not situation dependent? We don't know that. It's very early in his career. He's not an established stud. All we know is that he played well as a situational player.
I didn't say Kamara = Gillislee. I said look at how a mediocre player had a great season as a backup and look at the hype it generated. They are definitely not in any way the same type of player, but they had the same type of season (great numbers as CoP).
I like how sure you are that Kamara is good. I just don't feel nearly as confident as you do.
Landry has put up PPR numbers 4 years in a row now. In 0ppr he's been middling at best. His durability has helped his end of year numbers, but his PPG hasn't been terribly impressive unless in a volume based scoring system. Keenan seems much more versatile. But I see your side of it. Landry has proven to be a reliable safety valve for just about every QB he's played for AND he's been quite durable, so he presents the safe, low-floor guy. But give me KA and Diggs over him any time. KA is a clear favorite, IMO, but Diggs is a guy where I'll plug him in when he's healthy and let him go nuts, but then when he gets hurt I'll have to take him out and put in my backup. Landry will be there racking up receptions, creating consistent points for you, but I want that upside of players like Diggs. I'm not a Cooper fan, so I'll give you that one. I don't snake draft, but would be very curious to see some startup auction prices of Landry vs. Diggs.
Ah gotcha. I definitely did misunderstand you. My bad. I still think there's a solid chance that last season was lightning in a bottle for Kamara. I won't be surprised if that just doesn't happen again. Like someone else said, Ingram had a career year, too. I don't doubt Kamara is good, just maybe not as good as those numbers imply. But I do think as long as Brees/Payton are there, he'll hold plenty of value in PPR. Speaking of which, in 2011 Sproles put up similar stats (less rushes, but still 6.9 ypc). That system can make a semi-special RB2 (Sproles was quite good) look special.
One more thing... you've pointed out they were 19th in passing attempts, but you ignore that they were 6th in passing yards. Defenses were accounting for Brees and for good reason. When he threw the ball, he was making plays. A balanced offense with an efficient QB is a RB's best friend. Think of Trent Green with Priest Holmes and Rivers with LT. They didn't throw a ton, but they had good YPA and good TD/PA ratios.
Well, like I said, I'm not expecting Watkins to be a blue chip guy (but he does have that upside). I see the red flags, too, and it's possible his current owner (I've seen him switching hands quite a bit in my leagues) is ready to cut bait or to chase a shiny new toy. I would look to acquire him in a package or very close to your league's draft time. If you can't get him for 1.11 right now, it's very possible that rookie fever might allow you to pull that trade after the NFL draft. But if he signs somewhere that generates hype, all bets are off and his risk-reward ratio could easily flip in the matter of a few days.
FBG was wrong for Sterling Shepard, but they have Hyde as 26 (9/20/91). Same with this site: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/carlos-hyde/
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm talking about him as a PPR asset. Landry was WR 7 in 2015, WR13 in 2016, and WR6 in 2017. He put up more than 17PPG in 15 and 17.
Yes, other Saints passing backs put up big numbers playing for Payton/with Brees. Part of the hobby is separating the likes of Portis and Foster from the Morrises and Garys and Hillises. If you're not convinced that Kamara is a special talent, and have actually watched him play this year, nothing I say is going to convince you. By all means, go with Barkley over him, if given the chance. But if he's not a 1st round startup pick to you, I think you're late to the party.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think a system can make an average player very productive but no system can make a player look special (assuming "special" refers to his skill-set/abilities).
Sproles is a semi-special player who looked equally as good at times in San Diego and Philly as he did in New Orleans. Brees and Payton can make guys like Tim Hightower, Tavaris Cadet or Pierre Thomas very productive fantasy players, but those guys never looked special.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm assuming it's behind PFF's pay wall. The broadcast team shared it during the 2nd Falcons game.
Edit:
I did find this. It's not the exact stat the broadcast quoted, and doesn't say how it stacks up to other backs, however. I'm still looking.
"The Saints are averaging 8.1 yards per play when they throw the ball to Kamara, 7.1 yards per play when they hand off to him, but only 6.1 yards per play when they do anything else."
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2017/week-12-quick-reads
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For Landry, he's only as good as his target totals. If he goes somewhere that they'll dump it off to him 9-10 times a game, he'll continue to have value. Keenan and Diggs strike me as players that could still crack the top 12 with 130 targets due to more yards and TDs. It's really just personal preference, though. I can see the value in a safe play like Landry. I just prefer to fill my lineup with high upside guys and hope that half of them pan out.
I like the mention of Portis. He was special in Denver. He was good in Washington. I don't snake draft, but I feel confident I would not pay a top 12 auction price for Kamara. We won't remember, but this would be a fun one to double check in 3 years to see who was right. I won't be surprised if you're right, but paying a top 12 price for a guy who was RB2 on his own team feels very risky. At that price, I want to see him produce as the lead back. I am pretty sure Brees will be gone in 2 years (if not this year) and probably Payton, too. I'm not convinced Kamara will be a top 12 asset without them.
I don't want to get into a definition of special, but I'm just saying a system can allow a player to put up stats that the player would otherwise not be able to reproduce in another situation. Denver in the late 90's to early 00's, KC in the early to mid 00's.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree with Hankmoody that buying high on a rookie is not a good idea. If you really want the player buy high after they have proven their worth.
Rookie fever seems to have come early this year.
Rookie fever seems to have come early this year.
I think Kamara has proven his worth. Maybe he doesn’t quite replicate these numbers next year, but the tape tells the story- he’s a playmaker with talent that is enhanced by playing in the ideal paradigm for his skill set.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I wasn't talking about Kamara who has played well. Better than I expected.
Folks are talking about trading Kamara plus valuable assets for pick 1.01 (Barkley).
Barley looks like he will be very good and rumored to be a top 10 pick in the 2018 draft. Paying 1.02 + Evans for pick 1.01 was another deal that has been floated out there in the thread recently. Just seems like you can only break even on a deal like this if Barkley lives up to expectations, there is no value gained by such a deal. It is all risk.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Todd Gurley had 279 rushing attempts 1305 rushing yards 13 TD 87 targets 64 receptions 788 yards 6 TD in 15 games.Aunt Jemima said:
Those are LT and Faulk numbers. To expect Barkley to be able to do more than this if everything breaks right for him isn't very realistic in my opinion.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hyde will turn 28 years old on September 20th 2018 at around the beginning of the season.
I missed this when looking at 24 year old rookies a few years back. Hyde was one of them.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Do you feel this way about Nuk? Because I feel like even though Nuk is good, im not sure how gaudy his stats would be if he wasnt being peppered with targets at the rate he is.
I'm not a big Hopkins fan. I agree the targets are inflating his value and I'm not sure they are sustainable. Same with TD rate.
kutta
Footballguy
I mentioned earlier that the official 49ers' page lists him as 26 years old right now. Some websites have his age as 26, and others at 27 right now.
Here's the 49ers link: http://www.49ers.com/team/roster/carlos-hyde/4f42b0dc-515b-4f87-a1d6-f01ad9b53825
After looking at it more closely though, it doesn't look like it's been updated in awhile. This was probably last updated before the season, which means he turned 27 in September. That would make sense.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
As much as Doug Martin had proven his worth after his first big year? Or Julius Jones? Or Kevin Jones? Or Jeremy Hill? Or Cadillac Williams? Or Eddie Lacy? Or CJ Spiller? Or Ryan Mathews?
One year of production means very little in the NFL. It's why these 2nd year guys coming off an overachieving rookie year are the most dangerous asset in fantasy football. They are just as volatile as the rookies (more volatile than the elite prospect rookies at RB) but carry with them the false notion that they are "safe" or "proven". That risk is baked into the rookies' perceived values but not the 2nd year guys'. But the actual risk is at least the same (statistically, higher) in the 2nd year guys that over performed.
As well it should, it's totally with merit.
LT had at least one better season and Faulk I believe a few, he posted back to back 30+ fantasy point per game seasons. That would be two years in a row he outscored what Gurley did his season by about 5 fantasy points per game.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Its remarkable and there is some historical evidence of RBs doing well like this with Sean Payton and Drew Brees.
At the same time it is a small sample size too. Kamara only had 120 rushing attempts. If he gets more rushing attempts his yards per carry likely goes down. His yards per carry likely goes down even if it doesn't. a few very long runs are going to affect stats like ypc more when the player doesn't have many rushing attempts.
The Saints got rid of Brandin Cooks and didn't use Willie Snead much after his suspension. The way I see it, Kamara basically took over the slot WR position which is very valuable with Brees, plus he ran the ball 120 times on top of it. The Saints don't really have a WR two right now, Kamara filled that role. They have Ted Ginn, Willie Snead and at TE Colby Fleener.
Not saying this wasn't by design. It seems likely this is why they drafted Kamara, as a cheaper offensive weapon replacement than paying Brandin Cooks.
At the same time if the Saints had a good receiver besides Thomas, then maybe Kamara doesn't see as many targets.
I just don't find the efficiency stats on their own as that compelling. Volume goes up efficiency goes down. Regression towards the mean, efficiency goes down. I don't think the efficiency numbers are sustainable.
That doesn't mean Kamara won't have good efficiency numbers going forward, even with more volume, I just don't think he can maintain 6.1 ypc with more rushing attempts. Even Jamal Charles couldn't do that.
The receiving stats seem more sustainable than the rushing numbers though even with them being well above average.
Adding another receiving weapon, Sean Payton parts ways with the Saints, Drew Brees performance declines due to age are all things that could change the outlook for Kamara in the long term however.
Ingram moving to a new team is something that could improve Kamaras opportunity.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah I am still catching up with the thread. I saw your response.
I was just using PFR numbers which are almost always correct. But I do not know for certain. This isn't something I remember when evaluating Hyde as a rookie prospect. There does seem to be inconsistency about the information.
