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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (6 Viewers)

That cant possibly be true.  If YOU hate henry then so be it.  But his value is easily higher than pick 6 to 95% or more of the fantasy world.
 I gave MY thoughts on Henry. I would never waste my time giving my thoughts to something I don't think is true. I would not classify myself as hating a player because I don't like them as much as their ranking. My response was not what his trade value is, it's what his value is to ME.

 
I’d love to hear thoughts on Dalvin Cook. He’s been on my IR spot for so long, I haven’t thought much about him until a guy in my league starting sending me offers. He looked good and was decently involved in the passing game, but only for 3.5 games.  Murray/McKinnon put up nice stats after he went down and MN looks like a good spot for the near future. 

But we’ve seen 4-5 other rookies do well and now we have a solid crop of RBs entering in 2018.  Where do you place him? 

Gurley, Zeke, DJ, Barkley, Bell, 

After this there’s a big pile that I have a hard time sorting out: Kamara, Hunt, Fournette, Freeman, Gordon, Mixon, Cook.  I think I’d rank him after Kamara and Hunt for sure. It would seem he’s 8-12.  Anyone rank him outside the top 12?

Let's assume PPR.
I was highly impressed with him but it's for sure not easy sorting out rankings right now or even sorting out just the rankings from last year's rookie class.

It's rare to see anyone not return from an ACL but since he'll be under a year post-surgery when next season starts it's a little bit of a worry and in general non-contact ACL injuries bother me a little more, not that I have data to back this up.

But right now with those concerns in place I'd still take him over Freeman, Gordon and McCaffrey. In fact I got a team that had all 4 of those RB's on it and still has all of them except Gordon and I value Cook the most. I like him more than Fournette and Hunt as well based on his talent but not so much I'd take Cook over them now due to his current injury status and injury history.  Mixon I like more than a healthy Cook, though his maturity level and usage worries me a little.

 
I’d love to hear thoughts on Dalvin Cook. He’s been on my IR spot for so long, I haven’t thought much about him until a guy in my league starting sending me offers. He looked good and was decently involved in the passing game, but only for 3.5 games.  Murray/McKinnon put up nice stats after he went down and MN looks like a good spot for the near future. 

But we’ve seen 4-5 other rookies do well and now we have a solid crop of RBs entering in 2018.  Where do you place him? 

Gurley, Zeke, DJ, Barkley, Bell, 

After this there’s a big pile that I have a hard time sorting out: Kamara, Hunt, Fournette, Freeman, Gordon, Mixon, Cook.  I think I’d rank him after Kamara and Hunt for sure. It would seem he’s 8-12.  Anyone rank him outside the top 12?

Let's assume PPR.
First of all, how does Barkley belong with Gurley Elliot Johnson and Bell?

I can't get behind that. He hasn't proven a thing in the NFL yet.

Cook is much better than Murray/McKinnon. He does what both of those RBs can do at a higher level and has better vision, change of direction ability and speed than they do.

The injury makes the NFL sample size for Cook still very small, which makes it difficult to project from that, however he averaged over 100 combined yards per game and was a top 10 RB for fantasy up until he was injured. Cook was only starting to scratch the surface of what he is capable of as well. He made some mistakes and I think he was going to improve as he and the offense became more comfortable.

I ranked Coook as the best RB of the 2017 draft class and I still feel that way about him. There is no way to be sure how that would have played out if he hadn't been injured. Hunt in paticular had a great rookie season leading the league with 1327 rushing yards. Both Kamara and Hunt had over 1500 combined yards as rookies.

Dalvin Cook in his 3.5 game sample averaged 88.5 rushing yards per game and 22.5 recieving yards per game. If he did that for a full 16 games he would have 1416 rushing yards and 360 receiving yards. These numbers would have led the league in rushing and 1776 combined yards would be very close to Hunts 1782 combined yards. To be honest I think Cook is capable of more receiving yards than that. This is an aspect of his game that I think was still developing before he got injured. I can see Cook having over 500 receiving yards in a season pretty easily due to his speed and the way the Vikings have improved their screen game.  Jerrick McKinnon had 421 receiving yards this year and I think Cook is a better receiver than he is.

As rookie prospects I had Elliot and Gurley higher than Cook. Not sure about Barkley yet as I still have several games of Barkley to watch before I could fairly compare him to the number of games I have watched of Cook.

Not saying anyone should pay top 5 RB price for Cook, but I can pretty easily see him winding up there in 2018. I do not really think any of the RB besides Gurley and Elliot are clearly more valuable than Cook is.

 
McCaffrey is a good catch.  

Did Cook play with Keenum?  I can't remember if who got hurt first - him or Bradford.  
Yes against the Steelers in week two Cook only had 12 rushing attempts 64 yards 3 targets 2 receptions 0 yards  in a losing effort against a good defense away. This was Keenums first game. The Steelers had very good pass rush in this game and it was perhaps the worst game for the Vikings offensive line all year.

In week 3 against Tampa at home Cook had 27 rushing attempts 97 rushing yards 1 TD 5 targets 5 receptions 72 receiving yards.

In week 4 against the Lions he had 13 rushing attempts 66 yards 3 targets 1 reception 8 yards on 27 offensive snaps before the injury. Cook was injured with 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter of game four. So he only played about half of that game.

Something to notice here is that Cook averaged over 5 yards per carry in all of these games except against the Buccaneers who the Vikings defeated handily and they were using Cook to run out the clock. He had 27 rushing attempts in that game.

Two of these games were two of the 3 Vikings losses on the season and Cook had 12 rushing attempts and 13 rushing attempts in these games. The one against the Lions due to him being injured. The 12 rushing attempts against the Steelers was due to the Vikings being behind in the score and needing to throw the ball more to try to catch up.

 
To be honest it's shiny toy homer syndrome.
I think he is a very impressive player and I will very likely rank him as the best of the 2018 draft class. I just haven't watched him enough to be comfortable ranking him against other draft classes that I have seen more of the players yet. 

Possible he will grade out higher than the 2017 RB class for me. I just don't know yet.

 
Not sure, but even without Cook they overachieved.  I meant their offense in general, not just with all their pieces available.  
Overachieved expectations sure.

The main argument against Cook going into the 2017 was how bad the offensive line was and how anemic the offense had been for a pretty long time from the Peterson era.

The offensive line has become a strength of the team now and I don't see any reason why they won't continue to play well in upcoming seasons.

Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are very good receivers who can help any QB look good. I don't see that changing in future seasons either, whoever the QB is.

What the Vikings did this season was without arguably their best offensive weapon. Dalvin Cook.

 
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Overachieved expectations sure.

The main argument against Cook going into the 2017 was how bad the offensive line was and how anemic the offense had been for a pretty long time from the Peterson era.

The offensive line has become a strength of the team now and I don't see any reason why they won't continue to play well in upcoming seasons.

Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are very good receivers who can help any QB look good. I don't see that changing in future seasons either, whoever the QB is.

What the Vikings did this season was without arguably their best offensive weapon. Dalvin Cook.
Dalvin Cook might be their best offensive weapon but he isn't in that dominant tier either so what exactly do people expect coming from him and the offense in the future?  Ultimately his value comes down to how bullish you are on Cook and the rest of the offense, and I haven't liked Cook since day 1 and I'm not optimistic of offensive improvements either.  

 
I'm in a bestball league where we started with 24 teams and 2 versions of each player in the player universe. We lose the bottom two teams each year and their rosters are emptied into the FA pool and available in the rookie draft. We have 20 teams now and I have the 1.04, so it could easily go Barkley, Barkley, Guice and then I'm OTC. I could go with Guice, Cook or Mixon there. I personally put Cook over Mixon, and landing spot will matter for Guice and others, but this is where my decision will hinge. Mike Evans is also available but I already own him. 

 
Zyphros said:
Dalvin Cook might be their best offensive weapon but he isn't in that dominant tier either so what exactly do people expect coming from him and the offense in the future?  Ultimately his value comes down to how bullish you are on Cook and the rest of the offense, and I haven't liked Cook since day 1 and I'm not optimistic of offensive improvements either.  
Yeah you and TripItUp are on your own Island of the Dalvin Cook has no talent and visual impairment.

:shrug:

 
Aunt Jemima said:
I think your assessment it is about right, assuming this is ppr he is right around fournette in that list so he is 7 or 8 for me, list is missing McCaffrey by the way I have him over Freeman
I respectfully disagree.  I have Fournette in a tier and a half above Cook.   RB 12-15

 
I respectfully disagree.  I have Fournette in a tier and a half above Cook.   RB 12-15
What do the difference in tiers mean?

Fournette had a good rookie season. He averaged 80 rushing yards per game and 23 receiving yards per game.

He missed 3 games but over 16 he would have had 329 rushing attempts 1280 rushing yards 11 TD 59 targets 45 receptions 368 receiving yards 1 TD.

1648 total yards still falls a bit short of what Cook was on pace for and less than what Hunt did this season.

 
What do the difference in tiers mean?

Fournette had a good rookie season. He averaged 80 rushing yards per game and 23 receiving yards per game.

He missed 3 games but over 16 he would have had 329 rushing attempts 1280 rushing yards 11 TD 59 targets 45 receptions 368 receiving yards 1 TD.

1648 total yards still falls a bit short of what Cook was on pace for and less than what Hunt did this season.
Come on Bia, you're better than that.  Extrapolating 4 games vs 13 games is completely different.  

After week 1 Antonio Brown was on pace for 176 catches for 2912 yards, that must be what he was about to do.  

 
I have a pretty weak roster outside of David Johnson and OBJ and hold the 1.02, 1.08 and 1.10 picks this year. With 1.02 I fully expect to go RB but am thinking of shopping my other picks for WR help. I'm fairly new to dynasty so what kind of WR's would 1.08 and/or 1.10 get me, or at least could I try to go after?

 
I have a pretty weak roster outside of David Johnson and OBJ and hold the 1.02, 1.08 and 1.10 picks this year. With 1.02 I fully expect to go RB but am thinking of shopping my other picks for WR help. I'm fairly new to dynasty so what kind of WR's would 1.08 and/or 1.10 get me, or at least could I try to go after?
Hat to say, but if you are selling picks, then wait until you are on the clock or close to it. I’m guessing like WR20ish value for 1.8. 

 
We have kind of established a top15 of RB's or so with different orders of course but a pretty set list of what that looks like.  

How about the next group of young guys though?  With guys like Foreman, Marlon Mack, Wayne Gallman, Duke Johnson, Kenyan Drake, Alex Collins as guys who showed decently well this year and possible extended roles, do they jump into that 25-15 range?  Maybe bumping guys like Lamar Miller, Carlos Hyde, Jay Ajayi.  Or do the "up and comers" not reach that spot with the new crop coming in for 2018, where nobody would want to buy guys like the first group I mentioned?  I'm having a hard time figuring that out myself so figured it's good for the pool.  

 
Some of those guys probably need to dodge the top rookie RBs, but I like Drake and Collins quite a bit, Foreman too. 

 
How do you guys rank these 3?

corey davis, juju and Diggs 
Juju Davis Diggs

Juju is about as complete a WR as you'll see entering the league. Davis and Diggs are a lot closer than Juju is to the other 2 IMO. Davis has Mularkey for at least another year. A healthy offseason would help him......the offensive system however won't. Juju is 2 years younger and showed infinitely more than Davis Year 1. 

 
I'm in the camp that has JuJu, Davis, and Diggs in that order.

Putting Davis at #2 should not be viewed as being down on him, it's more of a reflection of JuJu, though to be sure I can't say I'm as high on Davis as when I drafted him.

For several reasons I was pulling for the Chiefs yesterday, my only reason right now(will be two if Bills beat Jags) that I was happy to see the Titans win was to get an extra week to evaluate Davis.

 
I have a pretty weak roster outside of David Johnson and OBJ and hold the 1.02, 1.08 and 1.10 picks this year. With 1.02 I fully expect to go RB but am thinking of shopping my other picks for WR help. I'm fairly new to dynasty so what kind of WR's would 1.08 and/or 1.10 get me, or at least could I try to go after?
Come draft time I think you could move those picks for guys like Alshon Jeffery, Robert Woods, Doug Baldwin, Robby Anderson, etc. depending on team needs 

 
Come on Bia, you're better than that.  Extrapolating 4 games vs 13 games is completely different.  

After week 1 Antonio Brown was on pace for 176 catches for 2912 yards, that must be what he was about to do.  
Of course it is. It is also the only data available to work with. 

As I said I think Cook and the Vikings offense were still finding themselves in those first 3 games. Cook made some mistakes, he dropped some passes. He slipped on the turf a few times where if he didn't would have led to bigger runs. The offensive line was still getting used to playing together and started playing a lot better after Cook was injured. Case Keenums first game against the Steelers was one of his worst games of the year if not the worst game. 

The sample size has two of the Vikings losses in it, which generally is not a positive game script for a RB. One of those two games Cook only played half of the game before being injured. The other was against the Steelers week two of the season in Pittsburgh.

The 4 game sample for Cook is far from ideal. You have two bad games and two good games in that sample. That Cook was as good as he was under these circumstances is representative of some worst case scenarios and a best case scenario against the Bucs at home where Cook had 169 combined yards.

To me that is a pretty balanced sample for Cook and so not bad, although I do think his averages would have improved over the course of the season for the reasons I just detailed.

I was just wondering what puts Fournette a tier ahead of Cook. The reasoning for that. As rookie prospects I considered Fournette and Cook to be very very close to the same level of talent, although their skill sets have some big differences. I prefer what Cook brings to an offense more than what Fournette brings, but Fournette showed he an be very involved as a receiver, which I didn't really doubt but he didn't have that on his college resume the way McCaffrey and Cook did. I think Fournette has closed the gap in that area somewhat with his play this season.

Just curious though what Fournette had done to put him so far ahead of Cook, when I see both players being really close to the same talent level. The numbers, as imperfect as they are do show that Cook was slightly more productive on a per game basis as well. Illustrating that when it comes to the bottom line, Fournette is not significantly better than Cook is, so that opinion must come from something other than the numbers, which are what decides things in fantasy.

 
How do you guys rank these 3?

corey davis, juju and Diggs 
Thats tough for me between JuJu and Diggs.

Davis

Diggs/JuJu = push.

Diggs has more than one season of being good in his favor, but also some injuries which would make JuJu a bit more attractive. JuJu has the better supporting cast. Maybe that tips things in his favor. Very close though, I would likely need to dig a bit deeper before making that call.

I would rather have Davis than either based on pure talent and upside though. Although I do think JuJu and Diggs are also very good receivers.

 
I have a pretty weak roster outside of David Johnson and OBJ and hold the 1.02, 1.08 and 1.10 picks this year. With 1.02 I fully expect to go RB but am thinking of shopping my other picks for WR help. I'm fairly new to dynasty so what kind of WR's would 1.08 and/or 1.10 get me, or at least could I try to go after?
I haven't watched any of the 2018 WRs yet.

However I was reading yesterday that Kiper and McShay do not think any of the 2018 WR have a 1st round grade besides Riddick.

So if you are looking to add WR talent with those picks, trading for established WR is the way to go I think.

Those picks have value and that value will likely increase in the months ahead, going into the combine and as rookie drafts get nearer. You already see a lot of rookie fever happening in this thread. This will only get stronger as more time and more talk about these rookies happens.

As people tend to over value picks I think you might be able to go after players such as Stefon Diggs or other strong WR 2 types with those picks. May as well try going high and see if you have any takers. If not then lower your target a bit to some of the WR 3 you may like, but I would start with some strong WR at first. Even if you are denied the trade at this time, those owners may change their mind as draft season progresses and come back with a counter that lets you land a top WR later on.

 
Cam Juju even legally buy a beer yet?  He looks beastly and kinda reminds me of when Josh Gordon hit the scene.  Just looks like a man among boys, and also plays like it, even though he isn't that big.  HUge upside for him that I think he has a great chance to reach.

 
We have kind of established a top15 of RB's or so with different orders of course but a pretty set list of what that looks like.  
We have? What do you think that list looks like?

I have seen some top 12-15 lists recently, but I guess I still think there needs to be discussion. Maybe just from my perspective, but I don't feel that a top 15 has been completely determined as yet.

How about the next group of young guys though?  With guys like Foreman, Marlon Mack, Wayne Gallman, Duke Johnson, Kenyan Drake, Alex Collins as guys who showed decently well this year and possible extended roles, do they jump into that 25-15 range?  Maybe bumping guys like Lamar Miller, Carlos Hyde, Jay Ajayi.  Or do the "up and comers" not reach that spot with the new crop coming in for 2018, where nobody would want to buy guys like the first group I mentioned?  I'm having a hard time figuring that out myself so figured it's good for the pool.  
I have opinions about all of these guys and I likely wouldn't put any of them in the top 15 right now. Ajayi, Miller and Hyde are guys that maybe do belong there though. They were going into last season at least.

Personally I am very high on DOnta Foreman, and because of this I am not as high on Miller as I think the majority has been, and maybe still are.

If Hyde is retained by SF then I have to consider him pretty strongly. If he goes to another team, its possible his outlook could improve as well, although it could drop his value as well. Just depends on the fit.

If Philly uses Ajayi more in the playoffs and he does well, that could improve his stock still I think. Right now based on what I have seen, Ajayi is still a very good RB, but the Eagles haven't been using him enough for him to be top 15 for me right now.

I really like Alex Collins. To me his main competition would be Dixon returning who could force a time share, and Buck Allen is still in the mix as well.

I really like Duke Johnson and I do think he is better than Crowell. However they are keeping Hue Jackson and Jackson prefers the bigger RB regardless of talent. Been down this road with Hill and Bernard before. If there was a coaching change I would be more bullish on Johnson.

I'm really not a fan of Drake, but he seems to be their guy for next season. I want to avoid all Miami players until Gase gets fired, which shouldn't be more than another season I think. But Drake will put up some numbers in the meantime most likely. I still wonder if they add another RB though.

Marlon Mack doesn't seem like the heir to the Colts job to me, although that is possible, I doubt it. He is talented, but I think may always just be a COP type role.

Wayne Gallman is the guy I am lowest on of the players you mention. He is ok. I just don't think he has any special traits to make him a consistent starter.

So some of these players you mention are debatably top 15. I guess I would like to discuss that a bit further, and in that process the guys 16-20 should shake themselves out.

 
Biabreakable said:
We have? What do you think that list looks like?

I have seen some top 12-15 lists recently, but I guess I still think there needs to be discussion. Maybe just from my perspective, but I don't feel that a top 15 has been completely determined as yet.

I have opinions about all of these guys and I likely wouldn't put any of them in the top 15 right now. Ajayi, Miller and Hyde are guys that maybe do belong there though. They were going into last season at least.

Personally I am very high on DOnta Foreman, and because of this I am not as high on Miller as I think the majority has been, and maybe still are.

If Hyde is retained by SF then I have to consider him pretty strongly. If he goes to another team, its possible his outlook could improve as well, although it could drop his value as well. Just depends on the fit.

If Philly uses Ajayi more in the playoffs and he does well, that could improve his stock still I think. Right now based on what I have seen, Ajayi is still a very good RB, but the Eagles haven't been using him enough for him to be top 15 for me right now.

I really like Alex Collins. To me his main competition would be Dixon returning who could force a time share, and Buck Allen is still in the mix as well.

I really like Duke Johnson and I do think he is better than Crowell. However they are keeping Hue Jackson and Jackson prefers the bigger RB regardless of talent. Been down this road with Hill and Bernard before. If there was a coaching change I would be more bullish on Johnson.

I'm really not a fan of Drake, but he seems to be their guy for next season. I want to avoid all Miami players until Gase gets fired, which shouldn't be more than another season I think. But Drake will put up some numbers in the meantime most likely. I still wonder if they add another RB though.

Marlon Mack doesn't seem like the heir to the Colts job to me, although that is possible, I doubt it. He is talented, but I think may always just be a COP type role.

Wayne Gallman is the guy I am lowest on of the players you mention. He is ok. I just don't think he has any special traits to make him a consistent starter.

So some of these players you mention are debatably top 15. I guess I would like to discuss that a bit further, and in that process the guys 16-20 should shake themselves out.
I kind of assumed we established it because of former conversations in this thread.  In some order I'd say it's pretty set;

Gurley, Bell, Zeke, DJ, Freeman, Gordon, Kamara, Hunt, Fournette, McCaffrey, Mixon, Howard, all have easy claims to top15 to me, with the last 3 spots being Cook, Ingram, D. Henry?  Or pick your poison on the last 3.  Howard might be the question mark for some based on ppr or non-ppr but I'd have to question your sanity if you ranked any of them outside the top15 of that group.  That doesn't include the 2018 class either so obviously there would be some movement.  Everyone seems to agree Barkley deserves to be there, and at this moment I'd probably put 3 more from 2018 that might be in that pick your poison group.  

I was honestly just trying to pivot away from that group and discuss that 2nd group of RB's, since people always focus on the top of lists' instead of the middle.  

 
I kind of assumed we established it because of former conversations in this thread.  In some order I'd say it's pretty set;

Gurley, Bell, Zeke, DJ, Freeman, Gordon, Kamara, Hunt, Fournette, McCaffrey, Mixon, Howard, all have easy claims to top15 to me, with the last 3 spots being Cook, Ingram, D. Henry?  Or pick your poison on the last 3.  Howard might be the question mark for some based on ppr or non-ppr but I'd have to question your sanity if you ranked any of them outside the top15 of that group.  That doesn't include the 2018 class either so obviously there would be some movement.  Everyone seems to agree Barkley deserves to be there, and at this moment I'd probably put 3 more from 2018 that might be in that pick your poison group.  

I was honestly just trying to pivot away from that group and discuss that 2nd group of RB's, since people always focus on the top of lists' instead of the middle.  
I agree with the 12 you listed belinging there. Howard is very good, no disagreement from me regarding him, PPR or standard, he belongs.

I definitely think Cook belongs in that group, an area where we likely disagree quite a bit. Not sure exactly where I would place Cook in the group, somewhere between 6-10 I think. Without question I would take Cook before Howard, and I really like Howard. I would take Cook over Mixon and McCaffrey as well. LIkely over Kamara, Hunt and Fournette too, but those 3 are much closer to Cook for me, same tier in my view while Gordin, Mixon, Howard a step below.

Freeman has really impressed me every time I see him play. He has showed some really good power on top of his elusiveness at times this year. More than I recall seeing from him previously. I think he would be in the same group as Howard, Mixon, McCaffrey for me at this time, with the other guys ahead of him, its really splitting hairs though. Freeman is proven and I would rather have him than Mixon or McCaffrey for example, although the same tier as those guys. I realize some likely value Freeman more than this, and based on what he has proven, I don't really disagree with that perspective. Just looking forward, I think some of the younger RB have more productive careers ahead than Freeman. Tevin Coleman is a very good too.

Ingram has some question marks I think. The numbers have him belong there, but with Kamara also in that group? I dunno that they can keep having both RB gain 1500 yards. History suggests not. I wonder if Ingram might be traded away at some point which would change things, maybe in Ingrams favor.

Recently it sounds like Henry will be the man for the Titans next year. Just hard for me to fully believe that yet considering how they had him take a back seat to Murray all season. That needs to be sorted out for me before I would rank him that high with confidence. I have Henry in a league, but others seem more bullish on him than I have been. For me he has always been a high tier two RB not tier one. So about the same as Carlos Hyde, although I do prefer Henry over Hyde due to the age difference.

Barkley, Guice and Chubb all deserve some consideration I think, although I still have a lot of games to watch of their yet. Some of the other RB from 2018 class may belong as well, but I have not seen those RB as much as the 3 I mention yet.

McCoy although old likely deserves some consideration for top 15 as well. He still has it as we saw from game against Jacksonville earlier today. He made some big plays even though not fully healthy.

Another couple guys who haven't been mentioned, and who I don't think crack top 15 but are in the 16-20 range are CJ Anderson and Samajae Perine. Who I might be higher on than most are. I may be wrong about him. I like Foreman slightly more than Perine but consider them both close and they could be strong RB 2s in fantasy with enough opportunity.

Then you have some of the other guys mentioned as 16-25 guys that might belong there. Like Ajayi, Miller, Hyde. I do think those 3 are outside the top 15 personally, but I could make a pretty strong argument for them belonging there. I do really like Ajayi a lot, but losing confidence in him after the trade and based on how the Eagles have not used him as much as the Dolphins were.

So with Tevin Coleman and some rookies I haven't mentioned yet, thats about 30 or so players. I do think the top half or top 15 is something most of can agree on, although there will be a few players difference, who might be 16-20 for others.

The difference between RB 18 and RB 30 may not really be that great for me either.

 
Another couple guys who haven't been mentioned, and who I don't think crack top 15 but are in the 16-20 range are CJ Anderson and Samajae Perine. Who I might be higher on than most are. I may be wrong about him. I like Foreman slightly more than Perine but consider them both close and they could be strong RB 2s in fantasy with enough opportunity.
I appreciate you like these two guys more than most. I think Perine had that opportunity this year and stunk. Everyone around him got hurt and he got lots of workload and he stunk. I think they draft over him this year and would trade soon. I like CJ Anderson at about a RB25 value which I think is more where everyone else has him. But I wouldn't overpay for him given his limited ceiling, even if they fix QB.

 
I appreciate you like these two guys more than most. I think Perine had that opportunity this year and stunk. Everyone around him got hurt and he got lots of workload and he stunk. I think they draft over him this year and would trade soon. I like CJ Anderson at about a RB25 value which I think is more where everyone else has him. But I wouldn't overpay for him given his limited ceiling, even if they fix QB.
I'm still interested in acquiring Perine if I can do so cheaply. I know we expect a lot out of rookies these days, but it's not out of the question for a guy to improve in year 2. As for CJA, does anyone actually expect him back in 2018? His contract is easy for them to cut. Impossible to really predict, but my personal guess is that he gets cut and signs with Gase in Miami like they tried to do two years ago. Now it's anyone's guess how Miami will do (Loggains :X ), but if things work out, RB1 numbers are at the high end of the large range of outcomes for him. He played pretty well this year on a bad offense. 

What is Ajayi worth in PPR? A first? Second? A bag of unsalted popcorn?
I don't think you could get more than a 2nd right now. If he avoids any notable rookie competition, maybe that'll improve.

------------------------------------------------

How is David Johnson still ranked so high? Arians is gone, which was a big part of his success, IMO. They don't pick until 15th, so I'm not sure they can find a Palmer replacement there. He turns 27 during the season next year - not old but not young for a RB (for reference, he's about the same age as Hyde, Gio, CJA, Miller). His only full season was largely a product of volume, including 15 goal line TDs (12 rushing, 3 rec inside the 5). 

 
Thats tough for me between JuJu and Diggs.

Davis

Diggs/JuJu = push.

Diggs has more than one season of being good in his favor, but also some injuries which would make JuJu a bit more attractive. JuJu has the better supporting cast. Maybe that tips things in his favor. Very close though, I would likely need to dig a bit deeper before making that call.

I would rather have Davis than either based on pure talent and upside though. Although I do think JuJu and Diggs are also very good receivers.
I would agree with your take. Wouldn't fault someone ranking JuJu first but he feels like a short term sell high to me as people as super high on him right now. Typically I have tried to avoid investing at high prices long-term in WR2's that are stuck behind a true stud WR1 that isn't very old yet. Antonio is only turning 30 next season, maybe he pulls an Andre Johnson and drops off very quickly, but even Andre stuck around for 4 more WR1~2 seasons with Houston from the point that Antonio is at now. There have been short bursts and a few notable sustained instances where offenses have been able to support multiple stud WR's but given Big Ben is possibly already thinking of retirement, it's not something I would want to bet on right now given JuJu's likely price point.

While I like JuJu, a small part of me is also remembering that there have been a number of WR2/3's in Pittsburgh the last few years that have burned bright for a short time only to fall out of favor for various reasons.

 
While I like JuJu, a small part of me is also remembering that there have been a number of WR2/3's in Pittsburgh the last few years that have burned bright for a short time only to fall out of favor for various reasons.
Which ones looked like this guy though?

 
How is David Johnson still ranked so high? Arians is gone, which was a big part of his success, IMO. They don't pick until 15th, so I'm not sure they can find a Palmer replacement there. He turns 27 during the season next year - not old but not young for a RB (for reference, he's about the same age as Hyde, Gio, CJA, Miller). His only full season was largely a product of volume, including 15 goal line TDs (12 rushing, 3 rec inside the 5). 
I don't get it when people try and downgrade a RB by saying his production was "largely a product of volume". Good RBs see heavy volume and he was very efficient with his touches. Sure, the TDs could go down but they're pretty volatile from year to year anyway. 

Overall I get your premise and agree to some extent. 27 does not bother me personally as that's 4 years potentially of top end production, but that will effect his trade value and I would think his place in rankings.

I will disagree that his success was due to Arians - he looked like the real deal to me. I don't see a real weakness in his skill-set and I don't see him being challenged by anyone on the roster or that they would bring in. I think it's a pretty attractive roster and franchise so I would imagine they get a good candidate to replace Arians. Getting a good QB will be important of course, but I can see them going the veteran route and there's a few attractive options out there.

 
Regarding David Johnson for the poster thinking he is too high. I don't know what rankings you are referring to but how high is he and who else would you put ahead of him. Without looking at rankings and thinking off the top of my head I'm not sure if I can think of many guys I would rank ahead of David Johnson.

 
Which ones looked like this guy though?
Holmes, Bryant, Wallace, Sanders all had times they looked studly with Ben throwing them the rock and that's just off the top of my head. I wouldn't say there is a direct comp, but there doesn't need to be given the history of multiple guys rotating in and out of relevance over the years. I'd say the dynamic playmaking might be closest with Santonio Holmes except JuJu is physically more imposing as opposed to Holmes being a lot leaner and smaller (and a pothead.) 

 
I don't get it when people try and downgrade a RB by saying his production was "largely a product of volume". Good RBs see heavy volume and he was very efficient with his touches. Sure, the TDs could go down but they're pretty volatile from year to year anyway. 

Overall I get your premise and agree to some extent. 27 does not bother me personally as that's 4 years potentially of top end production, but that will effect his trade value and I would think his place in rankings.

I will disagree that his success was due to Arians - he looked like the real deal to me. I don't see a real weakness in his skill-set and I don't see him being challenged by anyone on the roster or that they would bring in. I think it's a pretty attractive roster and franchise so I would imagine they get a good candidate to replace Arians. Getting a good QB will be important of course, but I can see them going the veteran route and there's a few attractive options out there.
YPC isn't everything, but his wasn't impressive so I'm not sure what you mean by "very efficient." And the TDs WILL go down, not "could." I mean, the odds of him scoring that many TDs on a rebuilding team with a new coach and new QB have to be like 1 in 1000. It's very possible that JJ Nelson is their most veteran returning WR if Larry retires. John and Jaron Brown are both FAs. This team is a mess and they are predicted to be near the bottom in terms of cap space.

But I think the importance of Arians is twofold. (1) Arians was willing to give him almost all of the snaps/touches and (2) Arians runs a nice offense. We don't know what the new guy will do, but the status quo was the best case scenario. Some coaches elect to use a special 3rd down back even if the main RB is good at pass protection and catching. Some coaches elect to use a different RB every 3rd series just to keep the starter fresh. Some coaches elect to use a designated 2-minute drill RB rather than the starter. These things happen and can derail the value of the starting RB. With Arians departure, there is significant risk to DJ in both workload and the overall effectiveness of the offense that provided him those 15 goal line scores. 

I didn't mean to imply 27 is old. I agree you can easily get 4-5 good years out of a 27 y.o. back if he is elite and healthy. But 27 is 3-5 years older than most of the other RBs surrounding him in dynasty rankings. And keep in mind, Demarco Murray was 28 when the Titans drafted Derrick Henry. Doug Martin had one promising year, fueled by volume and he'll likely be looking for a new job at age 29. 

 
Regarding David Johnson for the poster thinking he is too high. I don't know what rankings you are referring to but how high is he and who else would you put ahead of him. Without looking at rankings and thinking off the top of my head I'm not sure if I can think of many guys I would rank ahead of David Johnson.
I just see him listed in different rankings quite high. I don't usually make ranking lists, but generally think of players in terms of value - be it startup auction dollars or trade value, and associating typical value for a guy with his ranking, I can't imagine paying that going rate for him either in a startup or by trade. If I was doing a startup, he'd be one of those guys I'd nominate and then go take a piss while other people bid him up.

 
Holmes, Bryant, Wallace, Sanders all had times they looked studly with Ben throwing them the rock and that's just off the top of my head. I wouldn't say there is a direct comp, but there doesn't need to be given the history of multiple guys rotating in and out of relevance over the years. I'd say the dynamic playmaking might be closest with Santonio Holmes except JuJu is physically more imposing as opposed to Holmes being a lot leaner and smaller (and a pothead.) 
So none?  None of them LOOKED as good as Juju does, and he is 21.  Not talking about stats here

 
YPC isn't everything, but his wasn't impressive so I'm not sure what you mean by "very efficient." And the TDs WILL go down, not "could." I mean, the odds of him scoring that many TDs on a rebuilding team with a new coach and new QB have to be like 1 in 1000. It's very possible that JJ Nelson is their most veteran returning WR if Larry retires. John and Jaron Brown are both FAs. This team is a mess and they are predicted to be near the bottom in terms of cap space.

But I think the importance of Arians is twofold. (1) Arians was willing to give him almost all of the snaps/touches and (2) Arians runs a nice offense. We don't know what the new guy will do, but the status quo was the best case scenario. Some coaches elect to use a special 3rd down back even if the main RB is good at pass protection and catching. Some coaches elect to use a different RB every 3rd series just to keep the starter fresh. Some coaches elect to use a designated 2-minute drill RB rather than the starter. These things happen and can derail the value of the starting RB. With Arians departure, there is significant risk to DJ in both workload and the overall effectiveness of the offense that provided him those 15 goal line scores. 

I didn't mean to imply 27 is old. I agree you can easily get 4-5 good years out of a 27 y.o. back if he is elite and healthy. But 27 is 3-5 years older than most of the other RBs surrounding him in dynasty rankings. And keep in mind, Demarco Murray was 28 when the Titans drafted Derrick Henry. Doug Martin had one promising year, fueled by volume and he'll likely be looking for a new job at age 29. 
I think you are being a tad misleading with some of your stats.

DJ has averaged 4.3 YPC. Marshall Faulk averaged.... 4.3 YPC over his career. Emmitt Smith averaged... 4.2 YPC. Walter Payton averaged... 4.4 YPC. So some pretty darn good RB's have averaged what DJ is averaging for their careers. 4.3 YPC is just fine with the volume he was seeing.

And regarding age, he turns 27 on December 16 next year. So he will be 26 for most of the year next year. 

I do agree that there are some questions surrounding his usage now that Arians is gone. But his YPC and age are two of my least concerns regarding DJ.

 

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