Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


spider321

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, DexterDew said:

I need a price check on Duke Johnson in PPR.

Finished 11th at RB last year with a solid 13.76 per game. He seems like an undervalued high floor RB in ppr, and is a FA next year.

He'll continue to be undervalued until people see if the Browns take Barkely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, DexterDew said:

I need a price check on Duke Johnson in PPR.

Finished 11th at RB last year with a solid 13.76 per game. He seems like an undervalued high floor RB in ppr, and is a FA next year.

You thinking about buying or selling? He's a sell, IMO. 3rd down back who got a ton of work due to being on an 0-16 team that was constantly trailing... also managed 7 TDs on like ~150 touches. If I was a betting man, I'd bet 2017 will go down as his career year. Going forward, I'd expect 2015/2016 type seasons. Which means he's a suitable bye week filler, but the upside is lacking. 

Approximate 12-team ppr value: Late 2nd - if and only if you are really thin at RB

Best case scenario: Browns decide to draft a RB and he's a total bust so they lean on Duke for a year

Worst case scenario: Browns draft or sign a 3-down back that they love and they give him a LeVeon-esque workload, leaving scraps for Duke

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ADP from Feb has him at 77, around rookies like Penny and Moore (way sexier with rookie fever starting).

Duke's rushing DVOA was 15.8% on 82 carries and he was 4th in RB targets. Again, not sexy but productive and a high floor RB2.

IMHO, his best case scenario is to sign somewhere when he is a FA and get 200+ touches.

This year, best case is to remain in the same role and be the Kamara-lite to a rookie's Ingram.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

But we've got four years of watching Evans be the #1. No need to just focus on one year. Adams sample size isn't as large or definitive... he struggled out of the gate (mediocre year 1, bad year 2), had a nice 3rd year* as the WR2 playing with the best QB in the league, then had a decent 4th year with bad QB play. I should point out that I don't think very many people think Adams = Evans, so that's not really an important debate to me. My real question is what am I missing about Adams that makes people comfortable with him as their WR1 in dynasty? If you strictly adhere to the 3-year window rule, I get it. But I just don't get the feeling that Adams will still be putting up WR1 numbers by the time he hits 30. 

*That 3rd year was very similar to Cobb's 2nd year and not as good as Cobb's 4th year. 

Makes total sense.

I like Adams a lot, but I do have trouble putting him in that top 10 ish. But, When you really look at the point differentials between the all the guys bunched from WR5 to WR15, it's just not that much - about 2 points per game seperate those guys. I don't have many doubts that Adams will continue to fall into that category, and if things break right, he could bust through to elite. But I'd be pretty happy with WR15 numbers for the rest of his career.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guys, convince me to do this.

Remember, we are in Arizona so David Johnson isn’t just great, he’s like freaking Superman around here. I drafted him and love him like I love my children, maybe more.

I’ve convinced the owner of 1.01 to give me 1.01 and 2.01 for DJ.

I’m just having so much trouble letting DJ go! :(

Edited by kutta
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, kutta said:

Guys, convince me to do this.

Remember, we are in Arizona so David Johnson isn’t just great, he’s like freaking Superman around here. I drafted him and love him like I love my children, maybe more.

I’ve convinced the owner of 1.01 to give me 1.01 and 2.01 for DJ.

I’m just having so much trouble letting DJ go! :(

I personally have the 1.01 over DJ but I know a lot disagree, so adding the 2.01 is gravy. DJ will be nearly 27 when the season starts and his team is in transition. I would look at this as a golden parachute personally.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, kutta said:

Guys, convince me to do this.

Remember, we are in Arizona so David Johnson isn’t just great, he’s like freaking Superman around here. I drafted him and love him like I love my children, maybe more.

I’ve convinced the owner of 1.01 to give me 1.01 and 2.01 for DJ.

I’m just having so much trouble letting DJ go! :(

If he "earned" the 1.01 this is such a foolish move for him. In your case if you were a true contender, I'd have some hesitation but ultimately I'd take it. While the 2.01 isn't a lock to hit, it's some gravy on top and likely something you cam flip if you want.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, kutta said:

Guys, convince me to do this.

Remember, we are in Arizona so David Johnson isn’t just great, he’s like freaking Superman around here. I drafted him and love him like I love my children, maybe more.

I’ve convinced the owner of 1.01 to give me 1.01 and 2.01 for DJ.

I’m just having so much trouble letting DJ go! :(

Snap accept. Barkley is like 5+ years younger. Even if you're not into Barkley, you could flip that pick for just about whatever you want. The 1.01 is like a genie in a bottle this year. 

But like Dr.O said... this guy is a fool assuming he was the worst team (the fact 2.01 is also involved indicates he was). If DJ flops and Barkley flourishes, he might never trade with you again.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

Snap accept. Barkley is like 5+ years younger. Even if you're not into Barkley, you could flip that pick for just about whatever you want. The 1.01 is like a genie in a bottle this year. 

But like Dr.O said... this guy is a fool assuming he was the worst team (the fact 2.01 is also involved indicates he was). If DJ flops and Barkley flourishes, he might never trade with you again.

Do it. Do it. Cut the crap and do it. 

Probably should have quoted @kutta rather than ninja gaiden. Side note, ninja gaiden was the “dark souls” of Nintendo. Super tough. 

Edited by Snorkelson
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

All good points. I won the league two years ago but suffered last year without DJ and with Jordy having a bad year. So my team could win it again this year with DJ back, but I really like the idea of getting younger.

I’ll post in the trades thread if we end up making a deal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Snap accept. Barkley is like 5+ years younger. Even if you're not into Barkley, you could flip that pick for just about whatever you want. The 1.01 is like a genie in a bottle this year. 

But like Dr.O said... this guy is a fool assuming he was the worst team (the fact 2.01 is also involved indicates he was). If DJ flops and Barkley flourishes, he might never trade with you again.

While I don't think Johnson flops - he surely has some risk - but the bottom line is he's not going to turn around the worst team in the league by himself right away (especially when they are also trading another valuable pick) and he'll be 27 this year.

There is a non-zero chance Barkley outperforms DJ this year let alone over the next couple of years.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, kutta said:

All good points. I won the league two years ago but suffered last year without DJ and with Jordy having a bad year. So my team could win it again this year with DJ back, but I really like the idea of getting younger.

I’ll post in the trades thread if we end up making a deal.

You could make that trade and then deal the 2.01 (with maybe a bit more) for a guy like McCoy.  Or possibly flip the 1.01 for more than you just paid for it.  It’s an easy accept for me.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

While I don't think Johnson flops - he surely has some risk - but the bottom line is he's not going to turn around the worst team in the league by himself right away (especially when they are also trading another valuable pick) and he'll be 27 this year.

There is a non-zero chance Barkley outperforms DJ this year let alone over the next couple of years.

I'm expecting a 2017 Carlos Hyde-like performance from DJ which I think most DJ owners would consider a flop even though it would actually be a pretty solid performance given the likely situation (although for Larry's sake I hope they pull off a miracle and are competitive). But I wasn't really predicting a DJ flop, just saying if it happens (and Barkley lives up to the hype) this guy will probably never deal with Kutta again because it would be such a fleecing. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I'm expecting a 2017 Carlos Hyde-like performance from DJ which I think most DJ owners would consider a flop even though it would actually be a pretty solid performance given the likely situation (although for Larry's sake I hope they pull off a miracle and are competitive). But I wasn't really predicting a DJ flop, just saying if it happens (and Barkley lives up to the hype) this guy will probably never deal with Kutta again because it would be such a fleecing. 

DJ couldn't do so little per target if he tried.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

I'm expecting a 2017 Carlos Hyde-like performance from DJ which I think most DJ owners would consider a flop even though it would actually be a pretty solid performance given the likely situation (although for Larry's sake I hope they pull off a miracle and are competitive). But I wasn't really predicting a DJ flop, just saying if it happens (and Barkley lives up to the hype) this guy will probably never deal with Kutta again because it would be such a fleecing. 

While I agree with you that it's probably more likely than not that DJ is not even a conversation starter in a trade for Barkley at this time next year, that's not the case yet and I think you're going a little over the top here with the "he won't even trade with you" stuff. 

That would be a pretty bad way to run a team if you avoid other owners based on the results of trades that were at least reasonably close in consensus value at the time. 

DJ is currently ahead of Barkley in early startup ADP and while I expect that to change as we approach the season its not some crazy difference according to the consensus even if most of us here likely favor one side. That's even before we factor in that the guy likely knows he is giving up some value to feed his Cardinals' homerism.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, I pulled the trigger. 1.01 and 2.01 for DJ. So sad to see him go, but I agree with most in here that age is the biggest factor and it should be fun to have Barkely for the next 10 years.

I'll post in the completed trades threads.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

While I agree with you that it's probably more likely than not that DJ is not even a conversation starter in a trade for Barkley at this time next year, that's not the case yet and I think you're going a little over the top here with the "he won't even trade with you" stuff. 

That would be a pretty bad way to run a team if you avoid other owners based on the results of trades that were at least reasonably close in consensus value at the time. 

DJ is currently ahead of Barkley in early startup ADP and while I expect that to change as we approach the season its not some crazy difference according to the consensus even if most of us here likely favor one side. That's even before we factor in that the guy likely knows he is giving up some value to feed his Cardinals' homerism.

I agree that it's a bad way to run a team, but I've seen it happen and I've got friends who are in that situation (fleeced a team one too many times in that owner's eyes so they essentially got blacklisted by that owner). And let's face it, if they earned the 1.01 and 2.01, they probably are running their team in a pretty bad way. 

For the record, I don't expect DJ to flop nor do I expect Barkley to crush him in scoring in year 1. But with the hype that will build around Barkley in the next 6 months, that owner is going to have some serious buyer's remorse if Barkley does actually finish as the RB1 or RB2 on the season and DJ does worse than I expect (~RB10). 

But I wasn't trying to talk him out of it. I said snap accept. Was just adding that in a year this could easily look like a fleecing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, kutta said:

Well, I pulled the trigger. 1.01 and 2.01 for DJ. So sad to see him go, but I agree with most in here that age is the biggest factor and it should be fun to have Barkely for the next 10 years.

I'll post in the completed trades threads.

It's a good year to have the 2.01.  It's quite the icing.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, kutta said:

Well, I pulled the trigger. 1.01 and 2.01 for DJ. So sad to see him go, but I agree with most in here that age is the biggest factor and it should be fun to have Barkely for the next 10 years.

I'll post in the completed trades threads.

Barkley is the truth. I think down the road you will be happy you made this trade.

I still expect Johnson to have a very good season in 2018 and given that Barkley will be a rookie could pretty easily outperform Barkley this season, but over the next 3 seasons I would favor Barkley and sadly Johnson will be nearing the end of his career by then while Barkley will likely still have some juice for several seasons left at that point but who knows? A lot can happen in 3 years.

David Johnson just turned 26 years old in December so he will be 26 years old for the majority of the 2018 season. Calling him 27 years old to start the season is technically inaccurate.

I think their value is very close. I have seen enough ability from Barkley as a receiver to think he can match Johnsons abilities in that area though and RB is a young mans game, so while I think they are pretty even and I would likely select Johnson ahead of Barkley in redraft, that age difference is enough to have Barkley ahead of Johnson in dynasty, as I consider everything else about equal.

Edited by Biabreakable
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Barkley is the truth. I think down the road you will be happy you made this trade.

I still expect Johnson to have a very good season in 2018 and given that Barkley will be a rookie could pretty easily outperform Barkley this season, but over the next 3 seasons I would favor Barkley and sadly Johnson will be nearing the end of his career by then while Barkley will likely still have some juice for several seasons left at that point but who knows? A lot can happen in 3 years.

David Johnson just turned 26 years old in December so he will be 26 years old for the majority of the 2018 season. Calling him 27 years old to start the season is technically inaccurate.

I think their value is very close. I have seen enough ability from Barkley as a receiver to think he can match Johnsons abilities in that area though and RB is a young mans game, so while I think they are pretty even and I would likely select Johnson ahead of Barkley in redraft, that age difference is enough to have Barkley ahead of Johnson in dynasty, as I consider everything else about equal.

I agree with everything you said. Add in that we are in Arizona and huge Cardinals fans, and it made it that much harder to pull the trigger. But I think it's the best decision for my team in the long run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

What would you give for Deshaun Watson ?

I was offered Watson for Godwin + Moncrief + 1.11 in a 12 team IDP dynasty starting QRWWWFT.

Thats not a bad price for Watson as Godwin and Moncrief are WR 3s at best and while you might be able to get a good player at pick 1.11 for example one of the QB from this draft class with that pick, Watson showed a lot of promise. I thought he was the best QB from last years group and this years group of QB would be challenged to match what he did before being injured, so I don't think any of this years QB deserve to be rated higher than him.

The deal in  total value is likely in his favor but I think you are getting the best player in the deal. I suppose you could ask for him to add a lower rookie pick such as a 2nd rounder or early 3rd round pick to make it a bit more even.

Its possible that the rookie hype gets stronger after the combine (even likely) and perhaps you could move pick 11 for more than that in a month or two if you want to wait for other offers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

What would you give for Deshaun Watson ?

I was offered Watson for Godwin + Moncrief + 1.11 in a 12 team IDP dynasty starting QRWWWFT.

This looks like a complete and utter steal to me...the sample size on Watson is small but he has the potential to be an elite, difference-making fantasy asset...a guy that can single-handedly help you win some weekly match-ups...while the sample size is small this is a guy who did not come out of nowhere...he is an All-everything college player drafted in the first round who did not miss a beat the second he stepped on the field in the NFL...to get him you are giving up a package I would not even consider for lesser players than him...Moncrief and Godwin are not core parts of anyone's roster...outside of being young they are not anything special when you are talking about getting a potential stud like Watson...Moncrief has been a real disappointment who has been cut in redraft leagues and I look at Godwin as being a nice prospect with limited upside...the 1.11 is valuable but is out of the range of the pre-draft studs (I don't do IDP so I am sure it probably has more value in that format)...the more I look at this deal the less I understand why it would even be considered...any time you can a acquire a big time player without giving up a core piece you have struck fantasy gold...this is a horrible trade...  

Edited by Boston
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

What would you give for Deshaun Watson ?

I was offered Watson for Godwin + Moncrief + 1.11 in a 12 team IDP dynasty starting QRWWWFT.

In a deeper league, I'd side with Godwin, Moncrief, and the pick because I like the potential of both of those guys and they're young (and you can probably get a nice RB at 1.11 this year). They probably won't both pan out, but one of them could easily be a fantasy WR2. Buuut you only start one RB, so that flex is likely to be a RB meaning extra WRs have minimum value if only the top ~36 are worthy of starting spots. So it comes down to team situation and league. Watson seems overhyped IMO, so if you think you can flip him for more, do it. If you are desperate for QB and believe Watson is the truth then do it. If you are painfully thin at WR, don't do it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

What would you give for Deshaun Watson ?

I was offered Watson for Godwin + Moncrief + 1.11 in a 12 team IDP dynasty starting QRWWWFT.

I think the Watson side of this deal is clearly advantaged. Watson was exceptional in his, albeit limited, sample size. He, in a 12 team league, will give you a long term positional match up over the next several years on a week to week basis. He is the type of player that will win games single handedly when he goes off. The Godwin, Moncrief, 1.11 side looks decent based on volume, but I'm skeptical that any one component of this group rises above JAG status. 

To me, if I get offered this package and receive Watson, this is a pretty cut and dried snap accept.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

What would you give for Deshaun Watson ?

I was offered Watson for Godwin + Moncrief + 1.11 in a 12 team IDP dynasty starting QRWWWFT.

I would jump on this. Of all the pieces involved Watson seems to be the only player that could be in the elite tier in his position. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, kutta said:

I was just offered Julio for the 1.01 and 1.04. Easy decline, but thought I’d post it for a value check.

Julio seems to have lost some value- still getting a return on investment but his value last year at this time was sky high. I would think a top 5 pick and an early 2nd is about where he sits, 1.01 probably gets julio and a late 1st, with perhaps another pick in the 15-20 range. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, kutta said:

It was, but I’m not countering because I know he wants the 1.01 and I’m hanging on to it for now.

Good call. The value of pick 1.01 will only grow. The ideal time to deal it, at least in terms of maximizing the return, likely will be right before the draft when dynasty owners will be in full prospect overload. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Ack88 said:

Good call. The value of pick 1.01 will only grow. The ideal time to deal it, at least in terms of maximizing the return, likely will be right before the draft when dynasty owners will be in full prospect overload. 

Might not work out that way if Barkley goes to Cleveland.  That wouldn't deter me from taking him 1.01 but some might sell for less if it works out like that.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Might not work out that way if Barkley goes to Cleveland.  That wouldn't deter me from taking him 1.01 but some might sell for less if it works out like that.  

Perhaps. I believe that the Browns will end up with either Cousins or take a QB at #1 overall. This is based on my own pure speculation. I think the Giants take Barkley at #2- simply too good to pass up. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

What kind of pick are guys like Josh Doctson and Corey Coleman worth? Is  an early to mid 2nd asking too much?

I think that’s reasonable. FWIW i think Coleman>doctson. Doctson came into the League a bit older, and hasn’t really flashed much to get excited about. I traded Coleman in 12 team ppr for Ebron this offseason, if that helps gauge.  I think now is the time to move Coleman before any more whispers of Pryor signing there get louder. They are also decent guys to dangle to upgrade a current pick. If you have a later 1st and want to move up to 1.05 range, or a mid 2nd and want to move to late first range, those guys might bridge the gap. I think Coleman has a good skill set that shouldn’t be affected by his hand injuries, but he may need a new team to reach that potential. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Aunt Jemima said:

What kind of pick are guys like Josh Doctson and Corey Coleman worth? Is  an early to mid 2nd asking too much?

I agree with the others that Coleman>Doctson. I haven't been able to find anyone who wants to give me Coleman for a 2nd, though. I believe his rookie ADP was around 1.03 two years ago, so two fluke-ish injuries later, his owners are not ready to cut bait that cheaply yet. I'm giving up trying to acquire him until after the NFL draft. Then I'll circle the wagons and see if rookie fever can help me finally get a Coleman share or two. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I haven't seen Doctson moved for much in my leagues. I got him as a throw in on a larger deal earlier this offseason, and flipped him basically for Deshaun Watson (no special QB scoring) and was thrilled with that. 

As a Redskins fan, I have to say that I haven't seen him flash very often. Given how much people like Gruden's passing offense and how much they like Cousins in general, that's not a good sign. Especially since Doctson came in kinda over-aged and seemingly "ready to play". He had the injury that screwed up his rookie year, but even this year he didn't impress me much. 

That doesn't necessarily mean he's a bust. Davante Adams took a few years, with a much better QB and better WR teammates to learn from. He was younger, but still. 

Either way, I'd be trying to use Doctson as an intersting prospect to finish off a larger deal this offseason rather than trying to get a straight up draft pick for him--now that the Combine is almost upon us, its probably too late for that move to work out. 

Edited by ConnSKINS26
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well if we are talking about which we'd rather have it's probably Alshon. If we are talking about which we'd rather target/buy at their buying price then it's Dez easy for me because they are similar guys coming off of similarly bad seasons with similar recent injury history at a similar age but one guy is way way way cheaper than the other. 

I'd much rather have WR28 for an early/mid 2nd than WR25 for an early/mid 1st.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Well if we are talking about which we'd rather have it's probably Alshon. If we are talking about which we'd rather target/buy at their buying price then it's Dez easy for me because they are similar guys coming off of similarly bad seasons with similar recent injury history at a similar age but one guy is way way way cheaper than the other. 

I'd much rather have WR28 for an early/mid 2nd than WR25 for an early/mid 1st.

One guy has appreciated in value despite his poor showing in a very good pass offense. Wonde what the future holds for dez. Can’t imagine him in another uniform, but can’t see him taking a pay cut or the ‘boys paying him what he’s slated to make this year. Jerry Jones has kind of paid his vets in the past though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Tell me if I’m off on these valuations in terms of rookie picks. Assume 12 team/ppr/1/2/3/1/1/1/1

Baldwin- late 1st

marvin Jones- early 2

cj anderson- late 2/early3

shaheen- early-mid 2

gronk- late 1

lockett- late 2

ebron- mid 2

dak- late 1? Early 2? 

Ones that stand out to me. High on Shaheen, Ebron and Dak. Low on Gronk and Baldwin.

Edited by fruity pebbles
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
  • Create New...