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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (2 Viewers)

Well, we were talking about him and Njoku's 2018 likely production (based on me saying they'll both probably be mid-season buy low candidates), that's why I bring up redraft - to make the point that he's unlikely to break out this year. So I know you own him and want to get hyped about him in 2018, so I'm throwing a bit of cold water on that, but wanted to throw you a bone by reminding you he's a great long term asset. 
Well, we ended up talking about both which is why I deleted that comment.

I would say we're both right. I think he's worth a mid to late first in dynasty but neither am I expecting him to burst into the top 5 in 2018. But it doesn't take much to be a top 10 TE either.

 
I don't quite feel right offering a 1st for Howard or Njoku with Goedert and Gesicki currently projected to go mid-2nd in rookie drafts. 

Rank these assets:

Howard
Njoku
Everett
Goedert
Gesicki
Andrews
I haven't researched enough about the rookies to say, but TEs usually take a few years to get going so it is worth a small premium (IMO) to get a guy who already has a year of experience.

 
I haven't researched enough about the rookies to say, but TEs usually take a few years to get going so it is worth a small premium (IMO) to get a guy who already has a year of experience.
Right.  Howard and probably Njoku as well were both better prospects than any of this year's rookie TEs and both of them have already gotten 1 year of the TE wait out of the way.  I'd probably take that for a late 1st over a lesser prospect one year behind in the waiting game for a mid 2nd.

We knew the TEs weren't going to do much as rookies.  So I think if you can get them for less than they cost last year in (probably) a stronger draft class while letting someone else burn the roster spot for a year I think that is good value.

 
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Well, we ended up talking about both which is why I deleted that comment.

I would say we're both right. I think he's worth a mid to late first in dynasty but neither am I expecting him to burst into the top 5 in 2018. But it doesn't take much to be a top 10 TE either.
Yeah, it gets crowded after the top 6-7, but I'll gladly take a guy with a clear path to targets over Howard for a single year. I don't know where I'd rank Howard's likely 2018 year end production, but once the free agency dust settles, I think there will be several guys with some really nice opportunities. For instance, I'll be interested to see where Burton, Eifert, and ASJ end up. Shaheen and Kittle both look to have less competition for targets than Howard. Hooper is entering his 3rd year and was a nice prospect coming out of college. 

 
Right.  Howard and probably Njoku as well were both better prospects than any of this year's rookie TEs and both of them have already gotten 1 year of the TE wait out of the way.  I'd probably take that for a late 1st over a lesser prospect one year behind in the waiting game for a mid 2nd.

We knew the TEs weren't going to do much as rookies.  So I think if you can get them for less than they cost last year in (probably) a stronger draft class while letting someone else burn the roster spot for a year I think that is good value.
I always felt Howard was a better NFL prospect than fantasy prospect, and a bit overrated as a result.  That could certainly be me putting too much stock into his lack of production - I know that wasn't all on him.  But his draft pedigree was in part a result of his blocking ability, which doesn't score fantasy points.

I'm not sure Howard is a better fantasy prospect than Goedert and Gesicki.  

 
Yeah, it gets crowded after the top 6-7, but I'll gladly take a guy with a clear path to targets over Howard for a single year. I don't know where I'd rank Howard's likely 2018 year end production, but once the free agency dust settles, I think there will be several guys with some really nice opportunities. For instance, I'll be interested to see where Burton, Eifert, and ASJ end up. Shaheen and Kittle both look to have less competition for targets than Howard. Hooper is entering his 3rd year and was a nice prospect coming out of college. 
Agree and would add I do think the chances that Ebron gets traded are very high, I fully expect him to be switching teams in next week or two. My guess is he goes to Houston.  They were reportedly making offers for him at trade deadline last year, and with I think they don't have a first or second round pick which will take them out of top tier rookie TE market.

And Graham, can't forget Graham. Even at his age he still has value, maybe strong value next few years.

Which brings me to the Saints. Maybe they interest in Graham but either way they are the mecca landing spot for TE's. I own all the TE's we just discussed in this thread and there is no question if I could pick their team next year I'd pick the Saints.  This is as TE friendly offense as exists in the league, people just forgot because of last two years of Fleener. I think Saints add a marquee FA WR or use first/second round pick on one and whoever it is I'll value, a lot.

 
Agree and would add I do think the chances that Ebron gets traded are very high, I fully expect him to be switching teams in next week or two. My guess is he goes to Houston.  They were reportedly making offers for him at trade deadline last year, and with I think they don't have a first or second round pick which will take them out of top tier rookie TE market.

And Graham, can't forget Graham. Even at his age he still has value, maybe strong value next few years.

Which brings me to the Saints. Maybe they interest in Graham but either way they are the mecca landing spot for TE's. I own all the TE's we just discussed in this thread and there is no question if I could pick their team next year I'd pick the Saints.  This is as TE friendly offense as exists in the league, people just forgot because of last two years of Fleener. I think Saints add a marquee FA WR or use first/second round pick on one and whoever it is I'll value, a lot.
Oh man, I did totally forget about Graham. But you are spot on about the Saints. I never liked Fleener, but I thought even he couldn't botch the Saints they were so good for TEs. Well, he proved me wrong, but I'd still be all about a FA TE that I owned going there. It's easy to forget that they basically didn't have a TE the past two years. Could really affect Michael Thomas if they find a TE and a slot WR and/or upgrade from Ginn. If the Saints got Albert Wilson and Eifert on the cheap and drafted Kirk... wow.

Do you have any hope for Ebron? I've never owned him, so it makes it easy for me, but I've pretty much written him off. 

 
Right.  Howard and probably Njoku as well were both better prospects than any of this year's rookie TEs and both of them have already gotten 1 year of the TE wait out of the way.  I'd probably take that for a late 1st over a lesser prospect one year behind in the waiting game for a mid 2nd.

We knew the TEs weren't going to do much as rookies.  So I think if you can get them for less than they cost last year in (probably) a stronger draft class while letting someone else burn the roster spot for a year I think that is good value.
Boy I don't agree with that at all I would rather have at least two maybe four of this year's guys straight up even if I have to wait the extra year

 
Oh man, I did totally forget about Graham. But you are spot on about the Saints. I never liked Fleener, but I thought even he couldn't botch the Saints they were so good for TEs. Well, he proved me wrong, but I'd still be all about a FA TE that I owned going there. It's easy to forget that they basically didn't have a TE the past two years. Could really affect Michael Thomas if they find a TE and a slot WR and/or upgrade from Ginn. If the Saints got Albert Wilson and Eifert on the cheap and drafted Kirk... wow.

Do you have any hope for Ebron? I've never owned him, so it makes it easy for me, but I've pretty much written him off. 
I’m holding out hope for Ebron. He’s been a disappointment for the lions because we took him so early and want obj or Donald type production since we passed on them. I don’t think he’s going to light it up suddenly and be set and forget top 3 te but I think he can be productive and still be better than he has been and could be good in the right situation. I think he came in immature, thinking he was such a boss, then got derailed with injuries, then realized how hard he has to work, and perhaps is ready to be a pro. 

 
Do you have any hope for Ebron?
I do but it helps I mainly play in FFPC style leagues. He's not a major red zone guy and those 5/60 type games play a lot better in that format.

But he's had a solid season and looked to be finally coming around after 2016 season and then just tanked big time last year until right around when the trade deadline passed. His stats from that point on were solid, not great, just solid, but he eliminated the drop issues and even more than in his strong 2016 season finally looked a mismatch. Crazy as it seems he was actually a top 5 TE the second half of the FFPC fantasy season. I can't give up on that.

 
I do but it helps I mainly play in FFPC style leagues. He's not a major red zone guy and those 5/60 type games play a lot better in that format.

But he's had a solid season and looked to be finally coming around after 2016 season and then just tanked big time last year until right around when the trade deadline passed. His stats from that point on were solid, not great, just solid, but he eliminated the drop issues and even more than in his strong 2016 season finally looked a mismatch. Crazy as it seems he was actually a top 5 TE the second half of the FFPC fantasy season. I can't give up on that.
And he is only 24. 

 
I have to own up to changing my mind on the Barkley/Kamara debate.  

Where would you take Barkley in a PPR startup today?  

 
My Rodgers trade went down - I'll post in the completed trades thread.

Rodgers and Jimmy Graham for Erzt and 1.11.

I own Reed and Rudolph also, so hopefully Graham goes to a good spot and I don't lose too much TE production.

 
Are we allowed to talk about still undrafted rookies?

Dalvin Cook vs Derrius Guice? (or Dalvin Cook for 1.02)...

 
Are we allowed to talk about still undrafted rookies?

Dalvin Cook vs Derrius Guice? (or Dalvin Cook for 1.02)...
No, you're absolutely not allowed to talk about undrafted rookies ever on a dynasty board.  Kidding, I hope you got that. 

I easily take any of the top5 RB's from this year over Cook, but I'm the Cook hater around here.  

 
Maybe this question is too specific but, whats the gap from someone on the brink of QB1 (Stafford, Ryan, Carr or someone like that), to Russell Wilson in a 2QB league?  I was thinking mid 1st sounds about right, but then again I think that might have to be the perfect situation of a guy that needs to totally rebuild his roster.  

 
Maybe this question is too specific but, whats the gap from someone on the brink of QB1 (Stafford, Ryan, Carr or someone like that), to Russell Wilson in a 2QB league?  I was thinking mid 1st sounds about right, but then again I think that might have to be the perfect situation of a guy that needs to totally rebuild his roster.  
IMO Wilson and Wentz are untouchable in 2QB. As far as what someone would take, I think if it was 1.5/1.6 side of "mid" then you got a shot, but down to 1.7/1.8 then you'd have to be OTC with a guy he wants available.

Dalvin Cook vs Derrius Guice? (or Dalvin Cook for 1.02)...
Without knowing landing spot, I would take Cook at 1.2 in a PPR league. 

I'm not sure Howard is a better fantasy prospect than Goedert and Gesicki.  
I think Howard had a good rookie season, not in stat accumulation, but in on field performance. He looks more impressive to me than Engram TBH, he just didn't get the volume. 

 
It must be asked now.  What is the value of Landry in Cleveland with Tyrod for 2 years and a 2018 QB after that?  I'd think in standard leagues he plummets down to the bottom of the barrel.  But what about ppr?  Is he worth a 2nd round pick even?  Does Landry become the WR3 for that team with Gordon and Coleman on the outside and Njoku playing in line for slot work where Landry is only in for 3 wide sets?  The weapons are arguably the best in the league for a QB, now it depends on the QB's style and type of offense they run right?  

 
Curious as well what people think of Kenny Stills and Carroo now that a ton of targets have officially opened up in Miami.

 
It must be asked now.  What is the value of Landry in Cleveland with Tyrod for 2 years and a 2018 QB after that?  I'd think in standard leagues he plummets down to the bottom of the barrel.  But what about ppr?  Is he worth a 2nd round pick even?  Does Landry become the WR3 for that team with Gordon and Coleman on the outside and Njoku playing in line for slot work where Landry is only in for 3 wide sets?  The weapons are arguably the best in the league for a QB, now it depends on the QB's style and type of offense they run right?  
He leads the team in targets easily.  1.06ish for me.

 
If Gordon plays 16 games who scores more fantasy points
Good question.  Standard is Gordon, obviously.  I'd lean Gordon in PPR, but it's close.  Gordon has to be the toughest valuation/projection in the hobby, yeah?  I wouldn't be shocked by top 15 numbers or 2017 Sammy numbers.

You?

 
Good question.  Standard is Gordon, obviously.  I'd lean Gordon in PPR, but it's close.  Gordon has to be the toughest valuation/projection in the hobby, yeah?  I wouldn't be shocked by top 15 numbers or 2017 Sammy numbers.

You?
I think Landry gets more yards and TDs than Gordon, but less of both than he did last year. I wouldn't be excited about either, but might see Landry as a buy long term depending on who they draft at QB and if they take Barkley.

 
If Gordon plays 16 games who scores more fantasy points
Let's be realistic here: The chances of Gordon playing 16 games is virtually non-existent. 

This is an easy call. Landry in both standard and PPR. Gordon is a poor bet to make a significant impact. He will likely be the most overdrafted player this summer. There is no chance I take Gordon any earlier than round 9 or 10- which I know is a good 5 rounds behind where another owner will take him.

 
Whats this do to Njoku? With a new qb I liked him going into the year but Landry changes that some for me. Tyrod isn’t going to be a high volume passer, maybe 3000 yards. That’s a lot of mouths to feed with Landry, Gordon, Coleman, Njoku, Duke and possibly Barkley.

 
We don't know that yet. 

I just don't see Landry falling to less than a good wr2 in PPR. 
Now we don't know but you are quick to call my  comment ludicrous. The difference between a good WR2 and WR3 can be like less than one fantasy point a game? That is splitting hairs.

 I'm not trying to ride a fence here or say I don't know. I am saying with absolute conviction that a WR as good as Gordon and a QB who attempts an average of 28 passes a game, not to even get into possibility of them adding Barkley, will make his target load take a major nosedive and for low YPC and low TD player this is a concern.  I see him putting up numbers I generally associate with WR3 production. In term of PPG something in the 12-13 PPG range, which typically is a solid WR3. His career average is just under 15 PPG, I got him taking about a 15-20% drop in production. Again, I don't think that is really that ludicrous of an opinion but to each their own.

 
Whats this do to Njoku? With a new qb I liked him going into the year but Landry changes that some for me. Tyrod isn’t going to be a high volume passer, maybe 3000 yards. That’s a lot of mouths to feed with Landry, Gordon, Coleman, Njoku, Duke and possibly Barkley.
I thought he was hurt tremendously yesterday. At least for his 2018 outlook.  For all the reasons you said and Landry specifically is not the kind of WR I like to see my team add when I own the TE.

 
Now we don't know but you are quick to call my  comment ludicrous. The difference between a good WR2 and WR3 can be like less than one fantasy point a game? That is splitting hairs.

 I'm not trying to ride a fence here or say I don't know. I am saying with absolute conviction that a WR as good as Gordon and a QB who attempts an average of 28 passes a game, not to even get into possibility of them adding Barkley, will make his target load take a major nosedive and for low YPC and low TD player this is a concern.  I see him putting up numbers I generally associate with WR3 production. In term of PPG something in the 12-13 PPG range, which typically is a solid WR3. His career average is just under 15 PPG, I got him taking about a 15-20% drop in production. Again, I don't think that is really that ludicrous of an opinion but to each their own.
In PPR that seems ludicrous. 
If he had a great QB last year I'd be inclined to agree. If TT were a better deep passer, I'd probably agree. But Taylor is a better fit for Landry than Cutler was, and Landry a better fit for TT than Gordon. 

 
I thought he was hurt tremendously yesterday. At least for his 2018 outlook.  For all the reasons you said and Landry specifically is not the kind of WR I like to see my team add when I own the TE.
Agreed. 

Fwiw, in one of the WSLs I drafted Landry, Njoku and Taylor. I'm not real sure what the end result for those three collectively will be, but I do not like it for Njoku. 

 
If he had a great QB last year I'd be inclined to agree. If TT were a better deep passer, I'd probably agree. But Taylor is a better fit for Landry than Cutler was, and Landry a better fit for TT than Gordon. 
I actually think that and his mobility are the two best traits to his game which is all part of why I think he's not an ideal pairing with Landry, thus likely part of why we don't agree.

Fantasy speaking the only winner I saw yesterday on the Browns new roster was Taylor. I did not like it for any Browns but because I think TT's deep passing game is one of his best traits Gordon took the least hit for me.

 
Landry to the Browns makes Coleman’s value go from bad to worse. Fingers still crossed though. 

 
Gordon remains the clear cut best WR on the team.  Jarvis Landry is a WR3, Josh Gordon is a WR1.
So Coleman has done more than Landry now? Oh wait...

I own Landry in a dynasty PPR. I'm holding. In another, I'm trying to buy.

 
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Whats this do to Njoku? With a new qb I liked him going into the year but Landry changes that some for me. Tyrod isn’t going to be a high volume passer, maybe 3000 yards. That’s a lot of mouths to feed with Landry, Gordon, Coleman, Njoku, Duke and possibly Barkley.
Seems to be probably true. But could Haley turn this into a high powered offense with all those weapons? It has the potential to be. If it does, I'm still not sure I want Landry.  I feel like Gordon will be the unquestioned #1 and Coleman or Landry will rollercoaster from one week to the next. But who knows what this depth chart looks like come September. Or if Gordon stays clean.

 
I guess the trade skyrocketed Landry's value. I was told it'll take AJG & Juju to get Landry. Hahahahahahahahaha.............

 
He leads the team in targets easily.  1.06ish for me.
Love it as a football move for Cleveland, hate it for fantasy football. I doubt I would deal more than a late 1st for Landry now. He may lead the team in targets but he went to the one team with a worse passing offense and he simultaneously also has more competition than he did in Miami. Gordon and Coleman on the outside, Duke, Njoku and possibly Barkley to compete for underneath targets. They then traded for Tyrod "never thrown for more than 3K yards" Taylor.

May make for a decent enough offense in comparison to prior Cleveland years, but this will be a mess for fantasy IMO. Everyone of those guys I named at the skill positions took a hit, even Barkley if he lands in Cleveland as Landry would seriously impact Barkley's opportunities in the passing game. Only hope might be that whatever rookie QB they take early is a hit and gets in there to start sooner rather than later.

 
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Whats this do to Njoku? With a new qb I liked him going into the year but Landry changes that some for me. Tyrod isn’t going to be a high volume passer, maybe 3000 yards. That’s a lot of mouths to feed with Landry, Gordon, Coleman, Njoku, Duke and possibly Barkley.
Might open things up for him some. Clay wasnt half as talented as Njoku is but was his safety blanket.

I sorta dont think that logic will hold up though, im not certain tyrod will start many if any games

 

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