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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
flapgreen
Footballguy
You like guys who haven't even been drafted yet over a player already in a good situation with great weapons? Bro...
flapgreen
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He blows the rookies away right now and it's not close. His comp is not the rookies, his comp is more in the Jimmy G/Dak neighborhood.
Josh Allen however, from a physical and arm strength angle, has as much upside as any QB in the league but he's not in comp with Mahomes.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If you read it more carefully he's saying he likes this year's guys better as prospects compared to Mahomes as a prospect (at the time) - and I do not think I'd disagree with that.
It's hard to now separate the fact that we know Mahomes is starting the season in a great season with great weapons - which he even points out - but that has no bearing on Darnold v. Mahomes as a prospective NFL (and fantasy) QB. Of course most would NOW take their chances on Mahomes over say Mayfield - but if both were in the draft this year, I'd take Mayfield.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Amari Cooper is still being drafted as a top 20 (18.33) asset. How confident are we that he has the ceiling to justify that?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm not either, but if we're wrong, he's Michael Vick. In the meantime, he's all but guaranteed to be worth double the 3rd rounder he's going for now at some point early.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
My view of QBs is derived from Bill Parcells' philosophy on what to look for, and Trubisky ticks a few red flags for me which makes me doubtful he can ever be a great top 5 player. I'm concerned his college career was unremarkable and Marquise Williams was a better player with similar teammates. I'm concerned his first year he didn't take many chances. I view him as a "fits the prototype" prospect who doesn't have the head or guts to be more than that. I view Goff pretty similarly, not sure which I would like more if we ignore their pro careers to date, so that doesn't mean he can't be successful, I just don't see him ever being as good as Wilson or Wentz which is all that matters in 1QB QB evaluation.
joey
Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Here's a good recap which is also relevant to 2018
https://www.ndtscouting.com/marino-applying-bill-parcells-rules-drafting-qb-2018-class/
joey
Footballguy
thanks for sharing. good to see how this rookie crop of RBs might rate in Parcell's eyes.
I'll copy/paste the 7 criteria here for easy reference...
That criteria is as follows:
- Be a three-year starter
- Be a senior in college
- Graduate from college
- Start 30 games
- Win 23 games
- Post a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
- Compete at least 60-percent of passes thrown
His ceiling isn't super high. His inability to catch contested passes will always hinder him in the TD department. He could get lucky in a single season and catch a lot of bombs, but he's never going to be a red zone guy so nobody should ever be projecting 9-10 TDs for him in a season. However, he's still very good at a lot of things and very young (23.8). So while I think his upside is capped, there's something to be said for productive longevity.
I'd pass on him at that price, but if you are unfortunately doing a snake draft instead of an auction (why??) then I understand taking him over Green (6 years older) or Tyreek (24.1). I really don't know who behind him I'd prefer straight up... but I see a lot of guys I'd prefer to have for 60-70% of his auction value.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
His ceiling is consistent 85/1200/7 for 7 years. I didn't like that as a top 5 overall player but I like that a lot in the 2nd round of a startup. Would you take Adams, Hill, Green, Diggs, Cooks, Robinson over him? IMO at worst they are the same tier. Everyone at that point has issues. There are less elite players and most of them are RB, and his ADP is more indicative of the lack of sure things.
dipandglide
Footballguy
What's D. Adams ceiling? He looked great last year and is attached to Arog during his prime. Do any of you guys know if Adams was being covered by CB1's?
dipandglide
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'll grant you that the WR group is a mess - and that if you're dead set on a WR in the early 2nd, he doesn't stick out as a bad pick. But it's bad value compared to Fournette a pick earlier, or Juju more than a round later. He has less upside than Diggs, Davis, Juju and Robinson, who are being drafted after him. I'd take the 1.02 over him.
To answer your question, I'd take Adams over him easily, but would likely take him next, although I'd be tempted to gamble on Diggs staying healthy, as I think he's the better player. (Edit
I wouldn't trade Green for him if I'm a contender. I just couldn't leave a startup with a baseline WR2 as my 2nd best player, even if he's 24 - and I think that's what Cooper projects as.
Teams aren't going to stop bullying him until he makes them pay for it, and he hasn't shown capable of that. He's not going to get the coverage looks he did early on until he does.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I agree 1.2 without a name has more value, especially in an established league. I agree trading out of the pick is a good option as there's a tier break. If you end up taking Cooper, you can still target JuJu. Using April DLF ADP, from the 7 spot a roster of Barkley, Cooper, and Juju is excellent I think. Looking at the 1st two rounds, would you prefer Barkley/Cooper or Fournette with Thomas, Allen or Adams? I would prefer Cooper.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Barkley/Cooper, but that's about Barkley.
This kind of feels hot-takey, but I think I'd take Juju straight up.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While this is interesting I think some of those rules are pretty old and Parcells likely would not apply them in todays NFL.
Any person could graduate from college and be a senior, they wouldn't even need to play football and still get 2 points by this criteria. Back in the 1980s is when the rules changed that allowed junior college players to become eligible for the draft. I think these rules about being a senior and graduating pre date that change.
The 3 year starter makes a certain degree of sense in that you want to see the player perform consistently for more than two seasons, which could still be considered coincidence I suppose compared to 3 seasons of play.
The 2:1 TD to INT ratio makes a lot of sense as does the 60% completion rate, but these numbers are also arbitrary, and could eliminate some good players from consideration as well.
The number of games won is a team stat and not solely because of the Qbs play.
Some of the best QBs in the history of the game do not most of these criteria.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
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All good and you got your convo just not obvious to me because I don't ask questions on things I have my mind made up on.
I wish I had more Cooper to enjoy to be honest. When the season ended he was my #1 buy low target but I happened to run into owners who were not wanting to sale low and came up empty.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Kenyan Drake for me. It's odd to be so high on a player, relative to market value, and have zero shares.
I would have moderate confidence. Remember, his first two years in Oakland were rock solid, placing him legitimately in the WR1 conversation. He regressed last year and seemed to be playing through an injury. Further, Oakland as a team came apart last year. The last two factors make me willing to give him a pass for last season.Concept Coop said:
Carr is a legitimate B/B+ QB who will make plays. Cooper will be the focalpoint of the passing game and I expect Gruden to be creative in moving Cooper around the field to create mismatches. Cooper, as described by Gruden, compares favorably to Tim Brown, a WR who had great success under Gruden for many, many years.
Without having drilled down to the actual data, drafting Cooper in a dynasty top 20 is reasonable to me.
I see no reason why he does not return to back end WR1 status next year.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Gruden is a wild card for me. I was a casual fan when he retired and haven't taken the time to dig in. I don't know what to expect beyond the obvious (WCO).
As for an argument against Cooper's bounce back being likely:
"Having studied the All-22 Coaches Film, I believe opponents have read the book on Cooper and adjusted their coverage tactics accordingly.
...
According to Next Gen Stats, Cooper produces the fifth-worst passer rating against press coverage (64.2) and the eighth-worst catch rate (46.2 percent) in the league (among pass catchers with 10 or more press targets).
...
Fast-forward to 2017, and defensive backs have figured out that eliminating free access at the line makes it tougher for Cooper to impact the game on the outside. Thus, you're seeing more defenders walk up and press him at the line (bump-and-run coverage), to make him earn his catches and yards.
...
'He doesn't respond well to press coverage and physicality,' an AFC secondary coach told me. "When defenders put their hands on him and knock him around a little bit, they can take him out of the game.'"
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000860769/article/amari-coopers-struggles-jaguars-nflbest-secondary-more
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
It's an opinion, of course, but sure. Davis is the more physically imposing receiver, and would be the better red zone target, and a bigger mismatch - and thus more scheme proof - as a result. Granted it's all upside with Davis, whereas Cooper has already flashed.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Cooper is a 23 year old, former 1.4 pick who has posted a season with 83/1153/5 and had 7 TDs on 48 catches last year in a down season.
Diggs has also played 3 seasons to date, and his best season is 64/849/8. Davis had 34/375/0 in a massively disappointing rookie season.
So it struck me as odd to write off Cooper's upside.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Diggs has never played 16 games, so I'm not sure it makes sense to compare year end totals. Their situations, prior to this year, were not comparable either.Cooper is a 23 year old, former 1.4 pick who has posted a season with 83/1153/5 and had 7 TDs on 48 catches last year in a down season.
Diggs has also played 3 seasons to date, and his best season is 64/849/8. Davis had 34/375/0 in a massively disappointing rookie season.
So it struck me as odd to write off Cooper's upside.
Davis dealt with injuries and poor QB play, and made the jump from the MAC.
But we're talking about upside. Cooper was extremely pro ready and had a great start to his career. I just question whether that guarantees anything in terms of ceiling.
(Landry has been more productive than Cooper and I don't think anyone would argue with me saying his upside isn't what Diggs' and Davis' are. And I'm not saying his is higher than Cooper's. Just an example of "He's done XYZ but maybe isn't capable of doing much more than that" that we might agree on.)
I certainly don't mean to write his upside off. He could improve and blow my expectations out of the water. I'm just not personally willing to bet on that.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Cooper was injured last season. He played through it but obviously not as well as he had been playing the previous two seasons.
Maybe there is something to defenses figuring out that they will have more success using the bump and run against him. It is on the coaching staff to find the counters to what the defense is doing and making them pay for playing him a certain way. Easy answer to the press is to play him more from the slot and get him cleaner releases when they are doing that.
Based on listening to Gruden as a broadcaster he might be totally out of his depth returning to coaching now but I think he will find ways to help Cooper get open more often.
From a volume perspective the Raiders threw the ball 605 times in 2015 596 times in 2016 then 558 times in 2017. So a drop of 7% from the average of 600 the previous two seasons.
Derek Carr only had 515 pass attempts in 15 games last season or 34.3 per game on pace for 549 in 16 games after throwing the ball 37.3 times per game in 15 games of 2016 and 35.8 times per game in 2015.
Cooper still averaged 8 targets per game in the 14 games he played last season which is right in line with his total targets the previous two seasons. That should continue or perhaps even increase with Crabtree now with the Ravens.
Maybe there is something to defenses figuring out that they will have more success using the bump and run against him. It is on the coaching staff to find the counters to what the defense is doing and making them pay for playing him a certain way. Easy answer to the press is to play him more from the slot and get him cleaner releases when they are doing that.
Based on listening to Gruden as a broadcaster he might be totally out of his depth returning to coaching now but I think he will find ways to help Cooper get open more often.
From a volume perspective the Raiders threw the ball 605 times in 2015 596 times in 2016 then 558 times in 2017. So a drop of 7% from the average of 600 the previous two seasons.
Derek Carr only had 515 pass attempts in 15 games last season or 34.3 per game on pace for 549 in 16 games after throwing the ball 37.3 times per game in 15 games of 2016 and 35.8 times per game in 2015.
Cooper still averaged 8 targets per game in the 14 games he played last season which is right in line with his total targets the previous two seasons. That should continue or perhaps even increase with Crabtree now with the Ravens.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Through the first half of 2016 Cooper was on pace to finish with 104 catches for 1574 yards. Then he picked up a nagging injury and was terrible while trying to play through it.
I would be interested in seeing Cooper's per game averages in games he played when he wasn't on the injury report vs. games he played when he was. He seems to be pretty good when really healthy, and really bad when banged up. The difference last year was that he showed up on the injury report starting in week 1.
Whether that's a good thing or not (considering he was on the injury report for half the season or more in all three of his years) is up for debate, but I do think he has a lot of upside if he can stay healthy. And while we can certainly say this is football no one is ever truly healthy all year, there are lots of guys that go all year (even multiple years) without ever picking up an injury bad enough to be listed on the injury report.
Did he? If I remember correctly, the whole Raiders offense was off to a blistering start and then tanked. I'll look it up...
- Crabtree: 75-47/569/6 vs. 70-42/434/2
- Cooper: 80-50/787/2 vs. 51-30/362/3
- Carr: 323-2321/17/3 vs. 236-1612/11/3 (7 games)
I think the problem is just that Cooper has some holes in his game:
https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/981012896875364352
https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/981014597279731712
That being said, I'd still draft him over Davante Adams. But in an auction I'd rather let both of them go and save my auction dollars for post-hype players or underrated guys.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm pretty high on Cooper as a player, but I'm starting to get worried about Jon Gruden running the show. 95% of the moves he's made so far do not inspire confidence. Hopefully it's not the train-wreck that it looks like so far. At least he's come out to say the passing game will run through Cooper.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
As I've never owned Cooper, I haven't been plugged in to his week to week injury status. Certainly something worth looking into, and I'm open to it having played a major role in his regression. Although, looking now, those recurring foot injuries are concerning.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Good analysis. I see Cooper as similar to Cooks and we've seen what his upside on elite offenses is. It's back end WR1, high end WR2.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Big play ability from anywhere on the field. Can catch a 50 yard pass or a 5 yard pass and take it 50 yards. Don't have the size or physical game for the RZ or contested sideline catches.
Cooper's actually about the same size as Crabtree who is excellent at contested catches. Like I wouldn't expect Cooks to be good at it, but Cooper looks like he should be better. But as Harmon pointed out, he's been mediocre at best at it since college.
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/amari-cooper/
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/michael-crabtree-wr/
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He certainly looks smaller and seems to play smaller. I wonder if Crabtree has bulked up since the combine. Crabtree's arms are a lot longer- maybe that gives him a big edge on those contested catches that Cooper does not have.
I'm good. Been making this same comp since he came into the league and 3 years later feel even more so.:Waves at meno, alone on his island:
joey
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This seems like it would have been around Henry's value prior to the Dion Lewis signing. I think he's worth less now.
Seems right on to me. 1.04 + 1.10 > D Henry in the RBBC situation that is on the horizon for this fall - especially with Lewis in town.
Maybe the real question/point here is "would you have accepted the offer at this stage for the 1.04 with nothing else involved, Pwingles? Maybe insight into your draft/roster assets would put a clearer perspective on this "modified offer". . . . .
