Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (11 Viewers)

Aunt Jemima said:

What is the value of Delanie Walker?? Trying to figure out if I'm varying significantly from the consensus. As a guy for this year if I'm competing I expect him to be a top 5 TE, no reason really to not expect him to put up the best receiving numbers again unless you think he will suddenly go over the age cliff and on an up and coming Tennessee team, I realize he is getting older but I think he is a safer bet and more valuable than say a Jimmy Graham. Am I missing something? What is worth? early 2nd in TE premium for competitive teams??

Click to expand...

zeeshan2 said:

Jay Ajayi; does he get to 1000 yards this year because it's looking like a full blown RBBC? Do the Eagles resign him after this year which is a contract year for him? Any concern over his knee issues? 

Click to expand...

Zyphros said:

 I wouldn't take any rookies TE's ahead of him though.  

Click to expand...

ILUVBEER99 said:

Really?  I'd much rather gamble on a 1st/2nd round NFL draft rookie TE than one who is turning 34 before the season starts.  Even if the rookie TE totally flops it isn't like you'll be kicking yourself.

Click to expand...

Buckna said:

The originally linked PFF article starts off by saying that McCaffrey broke the record for the # of passing routes run for a rookie RB since they started tracking data in 2006. The next closest rookie RB's to McCaffrey are: Reggie Bush, Steve Slaton, Kevin Smith, and Duke Johnson, not exactly a ringing endorsement (they don't give the others corresponding PFF receiving grades.)

The elite PFF receiving grade on McCaffrey is more convincing, and I buy into PFF's methodology a lot. I couldn't get a list of their other running back receiving grades for comparison, but for a counter-point, here is the list of PFF's highest rated overall rookie RB season's ever from 1 year ago in descending order: Alfred Morris, Steve Slaton, Adrian Peterson, Ezekial Elliot, and Eddie Lacy. As much as I like PFF, these grades don't really seem like a great predictive metric.

Click to expand...

Biabreakable said:

Some people like to use PFF grades for a lot of things that maybe they shouldn't.

If I were to get points for PFF grades or something then sure, but I don't.

I find myself disagreeing with some of their observations pretty often. 

Click to expand...

Concept Coop said:

No.

He clearly doesn't fit the traditional mold. By your own standards, he's already done it - just like he was drafted to do. He saw 114 targets to 117 carries. He had more receiving yards than rushing yards. He had more receiving TDs than rushing TDs. I mean, have fun comparing him to Bell and Faulk, but pardon me for not taking it seriously. 

Just because you can cherry pick a few backs with better efficiency (likely on less volume) doesn't mean McCaffrey wasn't efficient. Just because he didn't break tackles doesn't mean he wasn't good in space. 

Click to expand...

FF Ninja said:

Wait, I must've missed this discussion. How do they calculate catchable targets? It always seemed like a useful stat so I'm sad if it is worthless.

Click to expand...

OK so I just dug into it a bit more, and I think we can write this stat off as less than useless when looking at how they created it.  It's not that they're basically adding receptions to drops to get "catchable" targets.  It appears that's LITERALLY what they're doing.

They didn't go through and watch the passes and tick off the ones that went 14 yards over the WRs head as "uncatchable".  It looks like they basically just opened an excel file, loaded up everyone's receptions in column A, drops in column B, and spit out the sum of the two in column C and called it "catchable targets".

In reality to get credited with a drop a player basically has to be hit in the stomach by a pass that they were standing under waiting for like a punt.  OK that's hyperbole but you get the point.  The vast majority of NFL incompletions are neither drops nor passes that were impossible to catch.  But this stat deems all of those in that middle zone as "uncatchable".  That's not even to mention to plays where a receiver failed to get separation and the DB broke the pass up, or where a receiver got two hands on the ball but the DB poked it out, or where a receiver thoughtlessly stepped out of bounds when he could have dragged his 2nd foot.  All "uncatchable".

The whole thing is a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Better receivers have "more" catchable targets because they're open more often, and because they catch the ball more often (a target can't be deemed uncatchable if it's caught, even in a scenario where had it not been caught it would have been deemed uncatchable).  The stat actually plays in Dez's favor.  Here we are all talking about Dez needing even more contested catch situations, but just by the nature of the stat any contested pass is automatically deemed uncatchable.....unless it's caught of course.  Just think about what that is saying semantically for a minute there.  Any contested pass is impossible for the WR to catch, unless he catches it. 

Click to expand...

FreeBaGeL said:

Did I wake up in 1985?  None of this is new or breaking any standards in the modern NFL.  Pass catching specialist RBs are everywhere now.

No one is comparing him to Faulk or Bell.  We are comparing him to Theo Riddick and Duke Johnson (among others).  He was basically a slightly worse Theo Riddick or a MUCH worse Duke Johnson.  And yes, they did it on roughly the same volume in the seasons that were being compared to CMC's 2017.

Him being poor in space was not merely a pull on statistics, it was an ongoing topic of debate in the CMC thread all season, among even CMC truthers, at how un-dynamic he was with the ball in space. 

Click to expand...

FreeBaGeL said:

Receptions + Drops = "catchable targets."

That's literally all they are doing is adding the two together.

Click to expand...

gabes1919 said:

 My personal philosophy with regards to PFF  grades is as more of a confirmation of what my own eyes and what the stats are telling me. If I see a running back doing well in the passing game and the grades say something different, it raises my hair is a little bit and makes me take a deeper look at the player.  Are they putting up numbers because there’s nobody else on the team to go to? Are they putting up numbers because they’re ripping off big plays and not much else? Vice versa or if there is little production but high grades, is there an opportunity to buy a guy who is far more talented than his numbers would lead l Vice versa for if there is little production but high grades, is there an opportunity to buy a guy who is far more talented than his numbers would lead you to believe.

It’s just another tool, I’ll be at one that takes a pretty deep dive into how a player performance. I don’t always agree with their assessments and overall rankings of players, but if they show somethin it’s just another tool, I’ll be at one that takes a pretty deep dive into Howard player performance. I don’t always agree with their assessments and overall rankings of players.But if they show something that’s a massive departure from the group thing or my own assessments, they have enough credibility that I’ll take a second look to see if I can see what they are seeingBut if they show something that’s a massive departure from the group thing or my own assessments, they have enough credibility that I’ll take a second look to see if I can see what they are seeing

Click to expand...

Aunt Jemima said:

What is the value of Delanie Walker?? Trying to figure out if I'm varying significantly from the consensus. As a guy for this year if I'm competing I expect him to be a top 5 TE, no reason really to not expect him to put up the best receiving numbers again unless you think he will suddenly go over the age cliff and on an up and coming Tennessee team, I realize he is getting older but I think he is a safer bet and more valuable than say a Jimmy Graham. Am I missing something? What is worth? early 2nd in TE premium for competitive teams??

Click to expand...

zeeshan2 said:

Jay Ajayi; does he get to 1000 yards this year because it's looking like a full blown RBBC? Do the Eagles resign him after this year which is a contract year for him? Any concern over his knee issues? 

Click to expand...

FF Ninja said:

FreeBaGeL said:

Receptions + Drops = "catchable targets."

That's literally all they are doing is adding the two together.

Click to expand...

 Damn it, that's so disappointing!

Click to expand...

Hankmoody said:

Not sure I agree.  How else could they define it?  If it's catchable, it's either caught or it's not.  They wouldn't have given him a drop if an incomplete pass wasn't considered catchable, would they?  And how else would you define a catchable pass that the guy didn't catch? 

FreeBa calls it self-fulfilling but to me it's more derivative of a binary result. 

Click to expand...

FreeBaGeL said:

Did I wake up in 1985?  None of this is new or breaking any standards in the modern NFL.  Pass catching specialist RBs are everywhere now.

No one is comparing him to Faulk or Bell.  We are comparing him to Theo Riddick and Duke Johnson (among others).  He was basically a slightly worse Theo Riddick or a MUCH worse Duke Johnson.  And yes, they did it on roughly the same volume in the seasons that were being compared to CMC's 2017.

Him being poor in space was not merely a pull on statistics, it was an ongoing topic of debate in the CMC thread all season, among even CMC truthers, at how un-dynamic he was with the ball in space. 

Click to expand...

FreeBaGeL said:

Receptions + Drops = "catchable targets."

That's literally all they are doing is adding the two together.

Click to expand...

Concept Coop said:

That’s not the case at PlayerProfiler. I’d be shocked if that’s how PFF is doing it, but it’s behind a pay wall, so I can’t confirm.

Click to expand...

Hankmoody said:

How does PlayerProfiler do it?

Click to expand...

Hankmoody said:

I suppose they could be including Passes Defended in there.  That means a thrown ball was either caught, dropped, the defender made it not complete, or it wasn't catchable in the first place. 

Click to expand...

Concept Coop said:

Ideally they’d chart each play, rather than rely on a formula. I’d be really surprised if that’s not how PFF is doing it. They chart every play for every player. It seems like a huge waste not to do it that way, when they’re already doing the work.

Click to expand...

Hankmoody said:

Well they kind of have to be, in order to determine drops in the first place.  No matter how you slice it this stat is going to be derivative due to that. 

Click to expand...

Hankmoody said:

Not sure I agree.  How else could they define it?  If it's catchable, it's either caught or it's not.  They wouldn't have given him a drop if an incomplete pass wasn't considered catchable, would they?  And how else would you define a catchable pass that the guy didn't catch? 

FreeBa calls it self-fulfilling but to me it's more derivative of a binary result. 

Click to expand...

FreeBaGeL said:

Receptions + Drops = "catchable targets."

That's literally all they are doing is adding the two together.

OK so I just dug into it a bit more, and I think we can write this stat off as less than useless when looking at how they created it.  It's not that they're basically adding receptions to drops to get "catchable" targets.  It appears that's LITERALLY what they're doing.

They didn't go through and watch the passes and tick off the ones that went 14 yards over the WRs head as "uncatchable".  It looks like they basically just opened an excel file, loaded up everyone's receptions in column A, drops in column B, and spit out the sum of the two in column C and called it "catchable targets".

In reality to get credited with a drop a player basically has to be hit in the stomach by a pass that they were standing under waiting for like a punt.  OK that's hyperbole but you get the point.  The vast majority of NFL incompletions are neither drops nor passes that were impossible to catch.  But this stat deems all of those in that middle zone as "uncatchable".  That's not even to mention to plays where a receiver failed to get separation and the DB broke the pass up, or where a receiver got two hands on the ball but the DB poked it out, or where a receiver thoughtlessly stepped out of bounds when he could have dragged his 2nd foot.  All "uncatchable".

The whole thing is a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Better receivers have "more" catchable targets because they're open more often, and because they catch the ball more often (a target can't be deemed uncatchable if it's caught, even in a scenario where had it not been caught it would have been deemed uncatchable).  The stat actually plays in Dez's favor.  Here we are all talking about Dez needing even more contested catch situations, but just by the nature of the stat any contested pass is automatically deemed uncatchable.....unless it's caught of course.  Just think about what that is saying semantically for a minute there.  Any contested pass is impossible for the WR to catch, unless he catches it. 

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

FF Ninja said:

I think we've all watched enough football to see there are some passes that could be caught but that we don't consider a drop if they don't catch it. Like if a receiver can legitimately* only get one hand on it, it's not a drop, but sometimes they come down with it? Or when a guy catches a pass, but a defender punches it out before he can establish the catch?

*This brings up an tangential topic that irritates me - has anyone else noticed players trying to catch the ball with one hand when they easily could've used both? I know I've seen OBJ do this multiple times. I hope those are tallied as drops. 

Click to expand...

Hankmoody said:

Ok I started from the beginning here and I think you're confusing "catchable targets" and "catchable target rate" and misusing it.   By definition a catchable target can only be one of two (based on what you found above) - either it was caught or it was dropped.  That doesn't mean all targets were caught or dropped.  That's where where catchable target rate comes into play.

Larry Fitzgerald gets 200 targets and 50 of them go 4 feet over his head and 150 of them hit him in the hands.  That's a 75% catchable target rate.

Of those "catchable targets" one of only two things has to happen (or maybe more depending on methodology like Coop is saying) - either it's a catch or it's a drop.  That's not self-fulfilling, that's because it wouldn't have been one of the 150 in the first place (derivative).  But that's an entirely different determination and one that's not related to whether or not the ball was catchable in the first place.

OBJ has 200 targets and 100 of them go over his head because Eli.  That's an entirely different 50% catchable target rate.

Catchable Target Rate is not a WR efficiency metric and it's not being used as one.  It's more of an equalizing factor.  You can't expect two guys with the same number of targets to catch the same number of passes if one of their QB's is airmailing the ball all over the place.  That's the point being made about Engram and that's what this stat does.

So yes, you are right that Catchable Targets isn't worth anything by itself but that's not what Coop was using.

Click to expand...

FreeBaGeL said:

Yes, it appears that the metric @Concept Coop was referring to is Player Profiler's "catchable target rate".  I'm not sure where they get that data from but it looks like more than just catches + drops / targets.

I'm not aware of a "catchable target rate" stat by PFF.  They DO have a "catchable targets" stat that is simply catches + drops, which I think we can all agree is the most stupidly useless stat they've ever invented.  They also sometimes divide that by target and call it "percentage of catchable targets", for which they are just using the dumb formula (unlike Player Profiler who seems to be doing something more useful).  As it is it's nothing more than drop rate and has no bearing in the context they were using it, or at least in the context that people assumed they were using it.

The stat first started gaining traction when they posted the infographic about Dez Bryant's "catchable target rate" compared to prior years.  They claimed that of his 102 targets at the time only 60 were "catchable" (53 receptions + 7 drops) for a 59% "percentage of catchable targets", which was a big drop from prior years.  They didn't specifically say that Dak was air mailing the ball 14 yards over his head on 40% of his targets (which he definitely wasn't), but that seemed to be what they were implying and that's certainly what the internet ran with, including beat writers for major websites.

If PFF actually has a real catchable targets percentage where they subtract out truly uncatchable balls then I am missing it.  But the ones I've referenced here certainly aren't it and certainly aren't useful in the context people use them.

But regardless, circling back to the context by which we first started discussing this, and Evan Engram's 76% catchable target rate on Player Profiler (which is the one that actually looks like a real stat), it's still not a particularly low rate overall, though it is a bit low for TEs (Henry 88%, Kelce 81%, Ertz 80%, NJoku 76%, Howard 75%).

Click to expand...

Hankmoody said:

Well if Dak wasn't inaccurate on 40% of the targets, where did they go?  If Dez didn't catch them and Dez didn't drop them what else is there? 

Click to expand...

FreeBaGeL said:

Think of a fade route in the endzone.  There are virtually zero drops credited to receivers on fade routes.  But that doesn't mean every fade route is an uncatchable pass.  We know that because, you know, sometimes they are caught.  How can a pass be uncatchable if it is caught?  But that's what happens here with this stat.  That pass is deemed "uncatchable" unless it's caught, which is a hilarious dichotomy and just one of the ways the stat is a ridiculous self fulfilling prophecy.

Click to expand...

Hankmoody said:

No, it's not. It could be dropped.  But now I know where you're coming from because you're a former QB.  You want something that says "I put it where I should have, he didn't get where he should have when he should have".   So what you're taking exception to is that Dak gets the blame when we really don't know if Dak was to blame.

Problem is, as an analyst, there's no real way to know when that happens.  Maybe Dez was late breaking, maybe the throw led him too much.  Maybe Dez let him cross his face when he was supposed to win inside, but maybe the read was to let him jump it for an outside release.  Only the coaches and the players know the reality behind a lot of these.

So now we're left with how we use it.  I think that's why this is used in a WR stat rather than a QB stat and I still think it has some use.  It's not about blaming the QB (although like any statistic it's about how the user uses it) but rather painting a part of the picture.  If I look at all of Dak's receivers and see they have a catchable ball rate of 84% and Dez is only at 59% then I can infer something from that.  But if Dez is at 59% while Witten is at 55% then I might not be going so hard on Dez.

Click to expand...

Hankmoody said:

Ok I started from the beginning here and I think you're confusing "catchable targets" and "catchable target rate" and misusing it.   By definition a catchable target can only be one of two (based on what you found above) - either it was caught or it was dropped.  That doesn't mean all targets were caught or dropped.  That's where where catchable target rate comes into play.

Click to expand...

FreeBaGeL said:

But it's not even about that.  I'm not talking about plays where the receiver ran one route and the QB threw another.  I'm talking about plays where the ball hits the receiver in the hands, or where the ball is put up in a contested situation, and is not caught but was not an easy enough catch that the player is credited with a drop.  IE see the videos above.  All of those are credited as "uncatchable" even though they were clearly catchable.

Which is why a receiver is very very rarely ever credited with an official "drop" on a fade route.  If it's contested, it's not usually credited as a drop.  And fade routes are pretty much always contested.  Again, see the last video above which is pretty typical of a fade route.  That was ruled uncatchable by this stat.  But if his foot hadn't gotten tangled up on the way down preventing it from landing in bounds, it would have been caught.  Even though it was "uncatchable".

Click to expand...

Arodin said:

This strikes me as far too simplistic.  

To use a baseball analogy, its like saying every ground ball is either a putout or an error for the infielder.  But it isn't.  Plenty of balls are hard enough to make a play on that we don't penalize a fielder for not getting the out.  Errors require a failure on a ball that ought to be routine.  Not every ball that ticks off a fielder's glove is an error.

Same with a WR.  Ball hits him in the hands and falls to the ground it's a drop.  Receiver reaches at full extension on the run and it ticks off his fingers...drop?  Uncatchable?  What about a pass that could have been playable but the receiver broke the wrong way and couldnt recover in time?  Catchable?

I think it is this sort of subtlety, akin to assigning errors or not, that the previous poster was getting at.  Catch/drop shouldnt be a binary metric.

Click to expand...

JackReacher said:

Which trio do you prefer PPR

Team A: Gurley, JuJu, Corey Davis

Team B: Melvin, OBJ, Tyreek

edit: realized after posting this comes off as an Asst Coach post. This is not a pending trade; just a value question that derived out of a startup mock

Click to expand...

FreeBaGeL said:

For me it's...

Gurley > OBJ
Juju > Melvin
Tyreek > Davis

They are all pretty close though.  I will take the Gurley side but hard to go wrong there.

Click to expand...

FreeBaGeL said:

For me it's...

Gurley > OBJ
Juju > Melvin
Tyreek > Davis

They are all pretty close though.  I will take the Gurley side but hard to go wrong there.

Click to expand...

tkrull said:

Price check on C.Hyde in a 2019 pick?  If you're a Chubb owner, is cuffing Hyde a priority?

Click to expand...

tkrull said:

Price check on C.Hyde in a 2019 pick?  If you're a Chubb owner, is cuffing Hyde a priority?

Click to expand...

Magic_Man said:

I guess Doctson's value is super low. I was offered a 4th round rookie pick for him in PPR. I declined.

Click to expand...

saintfool said:

i think it's a reflection of the passing game in general there.

Click to expand...

Magic_Man said:

I guess Doctson's value is super low. I was offered a 4th round rookie pick for him in PPR. I declined.

Click to expand...

menobrown said:

For me it's a reflection that he's sporting a 45% catch rate, struggles to separate and now has a QB who. not last year. but historically is not the kind of QB to throw into tight coverage and let his receiver try and win 50/50 balls. Been hearing encouraging things in OTA's that Alex is playing more like last year, more aggressive, giving his receivers a chance to make a play. This to e will be huge for Docston.

I'm not a Docston fan but for a 4th I'd for hang on longer.

Click to expand...

saintfool said:

i'm not convinced that Doctson is a true #1 but he can be productive with that cast around him. offering up a R4 pick or whatever is simply dumb. doctson has a chance to be relevant if even he isn't a special player. 

Click to expand...

Biabreakable said:

That is a ridiculously low offer for him.

He is worth at least a 2018 2nd round rookie pick and I am not sure I would want any of the 2018 WR over him. Yes his catch rate was terribly bad (I wonder how many of his targets were considered catchable? FWIW) and with Kirk Cousins throwing to him I don't think that was due to poor QB play. He did score 6 TD however and I am guessing a lot of his targets were contested type of throws.

Looking at the ADP he has been going 99th overall and WR 45. He is being selected after the 13th rookie player James Washington, so that should be early 2nd round rookie pick in 2018. I disagree with some of these rookies like Washington being selected before him.

Click to expand...

Craig_MiamiFL said:

If anything he's being overdrafted IMO if he's somehow going WR45. Not a chance I'd give a 2nd or 3rd for him personally. I'd take my chances finding a player I like more in a better situation in the first 3 rounds. 

He's the 5th pass game option IMO (Reed/Crowder/Thompson/Richardson).... with Alex Smith as his QB. And they just guaranteed Richardson $20 mil to take away targets and/or role.

Click to expand...