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On 6/8/2018 at 11:15 PM, Magic_Man said:

PPR? I'd move a late 1st for him if I needed a WR

Turrible.  No one owning him is selling for less than one of the 2nd tier RBs.

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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

Wow I think people really need to go back and look at the last 10 years of 1st/2nd round NFL WR picks.  These guys hit at what, a 20% rate?  15%?  It's a miserable number.  I'd be pretty surprised if

41 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Turrible.  No one owning him is selling for less than one of the 2nd tier RBs.

Depends on team needs & scoring. I own him in 1 league & don't need RB help there so I'd move him for upgrades elsewhere either alone or in a package

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1 minute ago, Magic_Man said:

Depends on team needs & scoring. I own him in 1 league & don't need RB help there so I'd move him for upgrades elsewhere either alone or in a package

You'd sell him for a late 2018 1st round rookie pick?

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3 minutes ago, tkrull said:

Price check on C.Hogan?  PPR dynasty.  I'd think 2019 2nd, possibly early depending on need.

Sounds right. His stock has risen with the departure of Cooks and now Edelman suspended, so it might not be that easy getting him right now.

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2 hours ago, tkrull said:

Price check on C.Hogan?  PPR dynasty.  I'd think 2019 2nd, possibly early depending on need.

Think Hogan is worth a late first. He should be a primary target of Brady this year and has flashed big time. Granted, he's missed time with injuries but he has produced when in the lineup.

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Pats Homer. I wouldn't pay more than late second for him. Certainly not a late first as has been suggested. He's at best a high upside WR2 but I'd feel shaky rolling him out there every week. 

He'll have maybe two 110/1-2 weeks where he eats up busted coverage but then will ghost on you other weeks. Maybe his role changes with no Dola and he's more consistent but I just feel he's a WR3 or bye week guy. 

Better options to be had in dyansty at these suggested prices. 

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5 hours ago, tombonneau said:

Pats Homer. I wouldn't pay more than late second for him. Certainly not a late first as has been suggested. He's at best a high upside WR2 but I'd feel shaky rolling him out there every week. 

He'll have maybe two 110/1-2 weeks where he eats up busted coverage but then will ghost on you other weeks. Maybe his role changes with no Dola and he's more consistent but I just feel he's a WR3 or bye week guy. 

Better options to be had in dyansty at these suggested prices. 

Agreed. He holds little value to me. My thoughts paraphrased from another thread:

  • The first four weeks of the season are the least important time to get extra points from a guy like Hogan - all your players are healthy and not on bye, so you are probably benching someone decent to start him
  • Edelman is still Brady's guy, so once he returns, Hogan's points per game will diminish just when you start to need him for byes or injuries
  • Hogan owners are hoping for an Edelman injury, but Edelman is now more likely to be healthy during fantasy playoffs than he was before the suspension (4 less games to risk injury)
  • Hogan has had his own health problems
  • Brady is one year older and at risk of falling off that cliff
  • Even with Cooks gone, the WR room is crowded
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13 hours ago, Ack88 said:

Think Hogan is worth a late first.

That seems like a tremendously risky proposition. I'd save the late first for a more solid veteran WR like Crabtree or Thomas. Sure Cooks is gone, and Edelman is suspended (only for the first four weeks) but Hogan has had his injury historty and the Pats' target projections are not easy to predict. Maybe it's Jordan Matthews that steps up or Mitchell gets healthy....

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

That seems like a tremendously risky proposition. I'd save the late first for a more solid veteran WR like Crabtree or Thomas. Sure Cooks is gone, and Edelman is suspended but Hogan has had his injury histories and the Pats' target projections are not easy to predict. Maybe it's Jordan Matthews that steps up or Mitchell gets healthy.

Britt and Dorsett are still lingering around, too. 

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8 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

That seems like a tremendously risky proposition. I'd save the late first for a more solid veteran WR like Crabtree or Thomas. Sure Cooks is gone, and Edelman is suspended (only for the first four weeks) but Hogan has had his injury historty and the Pats' target projections are not easy to predict. Maybe it's Jordan Matthews that steps up or Mitchell gets healthy.

Agreed no way I give up a shot at Anthony Miller or Kirk for Hogan.  Late 2nd maybe.  

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16 hours ago, Ack88 said:

Think Hogan is worth a late first. He should be a primary target of Brady this year and has flashed big time. Granted, he's missed time with injuries but he has produced when in the lineup.

I am a big Hogan fan...he is a quality WR but he is a much better real WR than fantasy WR...while it feels like he has better #'s he has not had more than 40 receptions or 700 yards in either season with the Pats...injuries are a part of that but at age 29 I would not even think of giving up a late first in dynasty for him...good bench player who can blow up any week but I would much rather roll the dice on a rookie who is still a blank slate...

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Everyone and their mother is worth a 2nd to their owners.  In reality he's actually WORTH a late 3rd, but people want a 2nd.  Everyone wants a 2nd and not a 3rd for their owner reasons but there's a very limited amount of players who are actually worth that 2nd round pricetag.  I wouldn't pay a 2nd and rather keep my team young with a rookie than take on a yearly potential guy who has never had over 700 yards in a season.  Jordan Matthews is completely forgotten by fantasy people not to mention Gronk and Michel along with Burkhead and White as well.  There is nobody on that offense that's worth more than a 3rd other than Gronk.  

I'm so sick of people saying "2nd" for literally a list of 100 players.... it just isn't true.  

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

People value players and picks differently. Go figure.

People are dumb if they pay a 2nd for Hogan in normal leagues, who at this point in his career is a roster clogger.  He's a bye week filler.  I see no reason to pay a 2nd round pick for someone like that.  You can get guys like Agholor, Crowder, Tyrell Williams, (hell I even saw Marvin Jones go for a 2nd) for a 2nd round pick and you get youth and what seems to be an ascending player, rather than pay up for an almost 30 year old WR who hasn't topped 700 yards or more than 5 TD's in a season.  

If you start 5+ WR's in a 12 team league, then sure go for it.  Otherwise don't be dumb.  

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5 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

People are dumb if they pay a 2nd for Hogan in normal leagues,

I don't see many scenarios where I would pay a second for him, but I surely wouldn't call some one that would "dumb". It's not like second round picks have a 100% hit rate. In this 2018 class the second round is pretty uninspiring once we get past 2.04 or so.

Quoting stats like Hogan has never passed 700 yards doesn't tell the full story either. He was a converted college Lacrosse player so he did not get many chances early in his career and has also had injury plagued seasons where he was obviously on pace for more than 700 yards. If someone see him as the second best WR on the Pats - and with their top guy missing 4 games - trading him for a Kalen Ballage, a Hayden Hurst or a Josh Rosen may make sense.

I'd take the guys you listed over Hogan as well - but I really haven't seen any of them moved straight up for a late second - like I said people value players and picks differently.

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I have Hogan as worth a borderline 2nd/3rd rounder. The FBG rookie rankings have Tre'Quan Smith 24th and DJ Chark 25th, and I slot Hogan in between those two.

That also seems like the right spot relative to the other rookies going around there. I put him behind other late-2nd round rookies like Hines & Darnold, and ahead of all the other 3rd rounders like Hurst, Ballage, Allen, and Callaway.

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1 hour ago, Jello_Biafra said:

No-one takes a 3rd for any player. A 2nd is not that much to give up, considering that most 2nds are just dart throws. Just look at this year's draft.

I know that, but that doesn't mean everyone is worth a 2nd either.  Just a pet peeve of mine.  I'm angry today forgive my rant ha.

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49 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I'm angry today forgive my rant ha.

All been there.

Get annoyed at of work -> go to SP for distraction -> get annoyed by dumb things in SP -> browse /r/fitgirls for better distraction

Wait, maybe that last part is just me.

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Its true that people do not often ask for a 3rd round rookie pick because in most leagues 3rd round rookie picks aren't worth much.

If your league has rosters of 30 or more offensive players then I can see the 3rd round picks start being valuable but most leagues aren't that deep.

Personally I like asking for 3rd round rookie picks because people do not value them much. Having a pile of 3rd round picks can sometimes lead to an opportunity to trade two of those for 2nd round pick or just throwing two 3rds into another deal as sweeteners. If you trade often enough it doesn't take that many deals to end up with 4 or more 3rd round picks.

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I haven’t seen much discussion about OBJ lately - just wanted to see what people’s views of him are for the next 2-3 years....as an owner I still put him in the top WR tier with Nuk and AB but I feel less than confident that he’s going to be as dominant as he has been with an ascending Engram, Shepard improving, the presence of Barkley and the vibe that they want to commit more to the run game (I know coaches always say this but Barkley gives them the opportunity to do so). There’s also the context extension issue in the background and you’d have to call him slightly injury prone at this point too?

I guess I’m not worried that he’ll produce but much of his appeal for me has been the advantage he’s given you in the past over opponents. Now, I do think that elite, difference making WRs in fantasy are becoming scarce so if he can stay close to previous production he’ll hold his value, but I’m starting to wonder whether production-wise he’ll clearly give you advantage over guys like Davante Adams and Michael Thomas. If he doesn’t then he’s probably overpriced in dynasty.

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21 minutes ago, RushHour said:

I haven’t seen much discussion about OBJ lately - just wanted to see what people’s views of him are for the next 2-3 years....as an owner I still put him in the top WR tier with Nuk and AB but I feel less than confident that he’s going to be as dominant as he has been with an ascending Engram, Shepard improving, the presence of Barkley and the vibe that they want to commit more to the run game (I know coaches always say this but Barkley gives them the opportunity to do so). There’s also the context extension issue in the background and you’d have to call him slightly injury prone at this point too?

I'm not sure why OBJ, who has been a top 3 PPG WR literally every season of his career, would be the one that has risk about having a down year next to a guy like Nuk who has had several actual down years.

It also doesn't hurt that he's done it with good efficiency and hasn't relied on insane volume like Nuk has.

 

Quote

I guess I’m not worried that he’ll produce but much of his appeal for me has been the advantage he’s given you in the past over opponents. Now, I do think that elite, difference making WRs in fantasy are becoming scarce so if he can stay close to previous production he’ll hold his value, but I’m starting to wonder whether production-wise he’ll clearly give you advantage over guys like Davante Adams and Michael Thomas. If he doesn’t then he’s probably overpriced in dynasty.

Well OBJ has outscored those guys pretty handily so far, but the real advantage in a guy like him is that we can be pretty sure at this point that he's a HoF caliber player who will be an elite WR for a long time.  Thomas/Adams by comparison might just be nothing more than the next Randall Cobb or Amari Cooper for all we know.

That's the underrated thing about guys like OBJ who are top 2-3 overall dynasty players.  We can be pretty sure we are not getting nothing long-term.  Adams meanwhile is ranked right in the same spot that guys like ARob, Dez, and Sammy Watkins were 2 years ago and it wouldn't be at all historically unlikely for him to end up doing no better over the next two years than they did over the last two.

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Tyler Eifert price check?  Rookie pick wise?  Would you take a 3rd or 4th or just hold?  He's my TE4 right now with no immediate plans of using him.

Just read he may no be ready for training camp.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Tyler Eifert price check?  Rookie pick wise?  Would you take a 3rd or 4th or just hold?  He's my TE4 right now with no immediate plans of using him.

Just read he may no be ready for training camp.

If you're sick of the constant worrying, a 3rd is really about all he's worth.  I'd rather hold until he takes the field, knowing full well that he may never take the field.

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42 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

If you're sick of the constant worrying, a 3rd is really about all he's worth.  I'd rather hold until he takes the field, knowing full well that he may never take the field.

Unfortunately this is where we’re at. Our best hope is that he’ll have a breakout game and we’ll be able to sell before the next week’s game for which he’s likely to get injured!

Tex

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1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

Thoughts on AJ Green? Is it time to sell if you can get Keenan Allen. He’ll be 30 in a month. 

In a heartbeat.  I'm not sure I wouldn't take Allen straight up in redraft, but giving me the extra 3 years is a no-brainer.

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On 6/14/2018 at 5:05 PM, FF Ninja said:

All been there.

Get annoyed at of work -> go to SP for distraction -> get annoyed by dumb things in SP -> browse /r/fitgirls for better distraction

Wait, maybe that last part is just me.

What’s that last bit?

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4 hours ago, Catbird said:

What are people thinking about similarly aged Julio? I would take decent value right now and be glad for it.

There was a lot of discussion on him pre-draft compare/contrasting him to the 1.2 rookie pick. This was before Guice took a tumble in the real draft though. He seems to be valued significantly above AJG despite being only 6 months younger. Julio's team situation is much more stable though, whereas Dalton and his o'line struggled mightily last year. I do think he's a great sell high if you can get good value, even the slightest hiccup in his production and people are going to start noticing he turns 30 at the end of the season. Alternatively, if you can get him for a reasonable price, he can still be a difference maker for a team in the title hunt that can ride him until the wheels fall off and not worry about exit value. Only 3 TDs last year (2 in one game) is concerning though.

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1 minute ago, Magic_Man said:

Would anyone trade Goff & K. Benjamin for Keenan Allen in PPR? I'd be left with Stafford as my only QB (Start 1). He has Brees & Tyrod. Hoping to get him to at least work a deal that sends Tyrod my way too.

Allen is an elite talent, and Goff/Benjamin are pretty much replacement level.  Don't risk him coming to his senses, take the deal and work on securing a backup QB later.

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Starting to think people are undervaluing AJ Green.  I totally agree Allen > Green, but how low are people taking him in startup's right now?  If he's going 3rd round or so, that seems like a no brainer to me.  Has anyone seen cheap deals FOR Green or am I just behind in my ADP checks?  

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1 hour ago, Magic_Man said:

Would anyone trade Goff & K. Benjamin for Keenan Allen in PPR? I'd be left with Stafford as my only QB (Start 1). He has Brees & Tyrod. Hoping to get him to at least work a deal that sends Tyrod my way too.

I think just about anyone would do that. Allen is a top 10 WR and while I like Goff a lot QBs are easy to come by.

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23 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

Thoughts on AJ Green? Is it time to sell if you can get Keenan Allen. He’ll be 30 in a month. 

I would expect you would have to give more than just Green to get Allen. If you can get him in a straight up trade, that's a nobrainer.

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15 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Starting to think people are undervaluing AJ Green.  I totally agree Allen > Green, but how low are people taking him in startup's right now?  If he's going 3rd round or so, that seems like a no brainer to me.  Has anyone seen cheap deals FOR Green or am I just behind in my ADP checks?  

In a startup I did in February, Julio went 19 overall and Green went 27.

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

In a startup I did in February, Julio went 19 overall and Green went 27.

I can see that as around normal for Julio, but Green seems way low.  Everything was out of sorts for the Bengals last year and Green was still a WR1 at the end of the year (finished WR11 in .5ppr).  They are different kinds of players.  Green is this years Gurley in my mind and it's not like he's that old either.  Soon to be 30 but his game translates similar to Moss's I think in that he could easily play to 34 or beyond.

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55 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I can see that as around normal for Julio, but Green seems way low.  Everything was out of sorts for the Bengals last year and Green was still a WR1 at the end of the year (finished WR11 in .5ppr).  They are different kinds of players.  Green is this years Gurley in my mind and it's not like he's that old either.  Soon to be 30 but his game translates similar to Moss's I think in that he could easily play to 34 or beyond.

Sure, Green's game could make it another 4 years, but what about Dalton, Marvin Lewis and the Bengals offensive line?  Older players get punished in dynasty startups, but I think the reticence to draft Green is due to things that affect the team/situation.

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