I'm not a big Cooks fan, but I think he's worth a mid-1st based solely on age and history of production. A rookie QB is worth a mid-to-late 2nd. So you'd definitely need to throw one in if your first is 1.09 or beyond.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
I'm not overly high on him and maybe that's not been correct I just don't view him as a difference maker or worth the cost he's been going for in past seaons. But yes I think a 25 year old WR with strong track record of not missing games and 3 straight top 20 PPG finishes is worth a first round pick but not all first round picks are equal so does depend where the pick is or projected to be.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I can't give Gronk away so I guess I have to hold
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
NeverEnough
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
As I’m reading this, I’m kicking myself for taking a rookie qb. It makes so much sense to just make some offers for vets and see if one bites. What was I thinking, taking Lamar Jackson? Then I reach your epilogue.
Eh, it really depends on the league. In FFPC, which sounds like a glorified keeper league rather than a dynasty league, it wouldn't make sense to draft a rookie QB. But in a proper dynasty league where 300+ offensive players are rostered 12 months a year, there's nothing wrong with drafting a QB later in the draft. I've seen Mahomes switching hands for a pretty penny this offseason and he was like a 3rd round rookie pick last year. Lamar Jackson is a hype guy so I could see him being even more valuable in a year than Mahomes is right now.
JackReacher
Footballguy
You did damn well. I took him in the 2nd in a 2012 FFPC startup. No real regrets as he’s the only player out of 20 drafted still on my roster. He’s produced great. I’m riding him to the end. Much bigger regret was drafting TRich in first. Lived and learned.
I would not say it does not make sense, dual threat QB's are generally fantasy productive from the get go. I'm not looking this up but I'm thinking that RG3 and Watson were both #1 in PPG for QB's their rookie season and fantasy speaking rare true difference makers which at QB is not usual. Drafting those kind of rookies Qb's makes sense. I think Lamar Jackson has a good shot to be like them.
Obviously there are exceptions, but when you are in a league that will cut to 14, it greatly reduces the appeal of rookie QBs (generally take time to develop). Especially guys that have to sit for a year.
I had to go look something up because I wondered why he would have fell that much and I realize I got something wrong in my post. That startup was in 2014 and not 2013 which makes more sense because Brady had a poor 2013 and I guess people thought he might be on decline.
Agree but that is why I specified dual threat QB's. When they get on the field they don't normally take time to develop, they are good to go. The guy that drove this home to me was Tebow. He was the worst passing QB I've ever seen and he was instantly starter worthy in fantasy. Or instantly as in when he started for the team and that's the issue with drafting guys like Lamar. Even if you believe in them, have total confidence they are instant fantasy studs when they get the job, it's hard to burn a roster spot on them waiting for them to get the job.
JackReacher
Footballguy
I have had success in FFPC picking up QBs with potential mid-season for pennies and flipping them in the off-season. I grabbed Goff and Mahomes last season when guys were going the 1 QB route and needed to address other positions. Carrying multiple QBs can be beneficial if they have perceived upside. If not, then they are dead weight. Trick is finding that upside before your mates do. I agree that most QBs don’t carry a ton of value in the FFPC, but I have also used them several times as an added chip to get over the top in trade talks.
As for FFPC FAAB, I’m more of a hoarder, and have had success grabbing guys like TY, CJA, Aaron Jones, and Burton when they presented themselves mid-season. I like to be able to pounce when those opportunities arise. I do agree with the poster who said it’s good to have $ in reserve for the final two weeks of the season. You would be surprised how much of an edge it can provide over other playoff teams streaming QBs and TEs, and when those unexpected injuries happen.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Post start up, 12 team ppr
q/rr/www/t/fff
Have an owner trying to trade for Hopkins, and is offering various packages of Gurley + junk for Hopkins + slightly better junk.
My wr and rb are not super great. Either player would obviously be good to have on my squad. I feel like Gurley is younger and has higher ppg potential. Even with some regression.
This would give me Gurley, Cook, and some combo of Hyde/Gore/ Chris Thompson as my rb 3 to start weekly
It would decimate my WR group weekly unless someone really breaks out. I would be left with something like;
Landry, Agholor, Manny Sanders, Paul Richardson weekly. Have Sutton, Pettis, C Coleman and some other end of bench dart throw types. So, really really thin.
Should i even be considering this? I mean, PPG from a starter is what it is, I would be likely getting more from an individual, but I think overall it weakens my starters so much that it negates the upside of the individual by quite a bit.
Thoughts?
q/rr/www/t/fff
Have an owner trying to trade for Hopkins, and is offering various packages of Gurley + junk for Hopkins + slightly better junk.
My wr and rb are not super great. Either player would obviously be good to have on my squad. I feel like Gurley is younger and has higher ppg potential. Even with some regression.
This would give me Gurley, Cook, and some combo of Hyde/Gore/ Chris Thompson as my rb 3 to start weekly
It would decimate my WR group weekly unless someone really breaks out. I would be left with something like;
Landry, Agholor, Manny Sanders, Paul Richardson weekly. Have Sutton, Pettis, C Coleman and some other end of bench dart throw types. So, really really thin.
Should i even be considering this? I mean, PPG from a starter is what it is, I would be likely getting more from an individual, but I think overall it weakens my starters so much that it negates the upside of the individual by quite a bit.
Thoughts?
I think Hopkins is worth considerably more, considering this is a start 3 WR PPR league.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
You’re not winning with that WR group sans Nuk. I’d pass, unless he’s willing to add to Gurley.
Maybe target a guy like Ingram while his value is so low. If you can split the first 4 weeks, Cook and Ingram is a solid duo.
In a vacuum Hopkins for Gurley is fine - and it’s even reasonable to add a bit to Hopkins. I just don’t like it for your roster.
Pwingles
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
With three flex spots, I’m not sure it really matters if you lose Hopkins, your team needs a lot of help to compete either way.
I guess I feel like the flex spots make it so it doesn’t really matter if you are stronger at RB or WR. You can roll out five RB’s, so if you are super strong there, that’s good. Either way you are going to need help on the last 5 or so spots. If you do the trade, it just means you have to spend your energies improving the WR spots.
Pwingles
Footballguy
I don't disagree, I suppose. My main thing was just that, elite RB production is just easier to replace, so future investments to improve wr group vs rb group would likely be more in terms of assets given up. OBV theyre both elite at their position. Im still unsure about what i want to do, lol. Stud swaps happen so infrequently in my leagues :/
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Good point. I don’t play the format, so I haven’t put a lot of thought into it. But this might be a scenario in which I’d look to move Hopkins for multiple pieces.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Price check on Corey Clement in a small lineup league - 14 team non ppr r/w/w/f
I feel like he has immediate value with some chance of taking over the lead job, but also some chance of never being relevant.
I feel like he has immediate value with some chance of taking over the lead job, but also some chance of never being relevant.
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kutta
Footballguy
He feels like such a
to me.He's actually on our wire, and our third round rookie pick is coming up. I have 3.04 and may take him if he's there. But I may not..
So to answer your question -
He's either the 2nd or 3rd RB option in a committee (albeit a successful committee), so I would say he has fairly low immediate value and also a low chance of taking over the lead job barring injury.
He's pretty much the textbook definition of a lottery ticket. Costs almost nothing, probably is worthless, but has a non-zero chance of paying off some dividends.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Interesting. I think I'm just higher on him than consensus. Thanks for the reality check.
Zyphros
Footballguy
We talked about a few pages back. I think he's definitely worth a flier, but I wouldn't pay more than a 3rd for him. I have very little confidence in Ajayi being a workhorse though and think Clement will be the 40 in a 60/40 backfield. In that offense, that'll be worth something.
Mark Football
Footballguy
I've heard this a few times on this board. Do most people believe this? It seems to me that there are way less elite rbs than wrs. And that its been that way forever. The pool of nfl wrs is so much bigger than rbs. I'm not sure of the percentage of championship teams last year that had Gurley but I bet it's higher than Hopkins. Give me Gurley every time.
Zyphros
Footballguy
So here's my new thoughts.
With Bell playing on franchise tag this year, his dynasty value takes a massive dip in value. Without a whole lot of thought, there's at least 5 RB's and 3 WR's I'd gladly take ahead of him in a startup now. I can't believe he turned that contract down for 1 and since he did, there's less than a 10% (random number) chance he re-signs with the Steelers IMO. New team, with his unique running style, plus his workload to date isn't a good combo to me. He's easily outside my top10 now. Any other thoughts?
With Bell playing on franchise tag this year, his dynasty value takes a massive dip in value. Without a whole lot of thought, there's at least 5 RB's and 3 WR's I'd gladly take ahead of him in a startup now. I can't believe he turned that contract down for 1 and since he did, there's less than a 10% (random number) chance he re-signs with the Steelers IMO. New team, with his unique running style, plus his workload to date isn't a good combo to me. He's easily outside my top10 now. Any other thoughts?
I’m very high on Clement. I think there’s a very good chance he takes over the starting job this season. I’ve been buying him everywhere I can.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Yes. That is the point I was making....
The year to year turnover in the RB1 group is more, compared to WR1's. There are constantly new RB1's.
Im not saying I can get another gurley or Nuk. Im saying something that improves my roster in the RB department is always going to be easier to find.
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Milkman
Footballguy
He definitely takes a hit. He's going to have a monster year though. Should still be able to get a good haul for him if you do it right.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I kind of agree but this makes him a buy for me. Anyone looking to cash out at 90% is giving me 10% free for a title run and after the season you just know everyone is going to hype him to the "best" situations available. What if McKinnon flops in SFO? HOU backfield is wide open an pairing him with Watson, Hopkins, Fuller just might look like PIT west. Bell and Rodgers in the same backfield for one last all in while Rodgers window is still strong anyone? Any if those speculations or half a dozen others could skyrocket his value. I'm buying hard and won't hesitate if his owner starts out 1-3.
Milkman
Footballguy
Plus he's playing for a contract this year. It wouldn't surprise me if he comes into camp a week or two earlier than he did last year.
Mark Football
Footballguy
More rb turnover is a good point, I never thought of it from that perspective. The wr pool is still much bigger though. So taking everything into perspective I think finding elite wr and rb talent might be at a close to equal rate.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'm sure it fluctuates year to year, but in my typical scoring PPR league...
8 of the 12 WR1s in 2017 were not WR1s in 2016.
7 of the 12 RB1s in 2017 were not RB1s in 2016.
Agreed, Steelers will run him into the ground this year, IF he stays healthy he should once again see at least 400 touches this year.
Next year will take care of itself, but as you mentioned there are some legit teams with boatloads of cap space that could be in need of a runner: Indy, Hou, SF will all rollover $30~$50M this year and have a ton of space next year. Buffalo, Seattle and Oakland are all projected to have a bunch of space as well, all decent to good offensive destinations. All of those teams have their warts but they could all be great landing spots too. He starts getting linked to some or even a bunch of them and the excitement will be through the roof.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Above and beyond any turnover at the top is the strength of the RB group compared to the WRs. We’ve had 2 ridiculously strong RB classes completely restock the position while the WRs continue to miss at an alarming rate.
Using a startup draft as an example, you can wait until round 3 at the RB spot and still land a couple younger guys you feel good about starting. You can’t do the same at WR. To use rookie drafts, you can feel pretty confident knowing that you’re going to get a startable RB with an early pick most years. You can’t make that assumption at the WR spot.
A few years ago you would have said the complete opposite when the draft was populated by Doug Martin, David Wilson, Trent Richardson, Mark Ingram(quite the disappointment for a while), CJ Spiller, Eddie Lacy, Shane Vereen, Ryan Matthews, Isaiah Pead, Bishop Sankey, Lamar Miller, Carlos Hyde, etc. and the WRs of that time were team defining players like Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, AJ Green, Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, It's hard to know these things without hindsight as a benefit. The whole reason there's this gap and stagnation with RB contracts is the 4-5 year period where very few good RBs came out of college. The old guard aged out and the young guard are still on rookie contracts. This middle section mostly busted left and right, which never pressured teams to raise RB contracts.
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Milkman
Footballguy
A couple players of note.
Evan Engram - FBG has him at 42 in their overall consensus rankings. Given the current TE landscape I'd trade any of the players outside the top 15 straight up for Engram without much thought.
Jared Goff - He ended the year on a tear throwing for over 2000 yards and nearly 20 TDs his last 8 games of the regular season. He's #89 in the rankings......would you really rather have Cousins or Cam? He's 23 years old lol.
Evan Engram - FBG has him at 42 in their overall consensus rankings. Given the current TE landscape I'd trade any of the players outside the top 15 straight up for Engram without much thought.
Jared Goff - He ended the year on a tear throwing for over 2000 yards and nearly 20 TDs his last 8 games of the regular season. He's #89 in the rankings......would you really rather have Cousins or Cam? He's 23 years old lol.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Thoughts on Mahomes value? Trying to trade for him, but not sure what would be considered fair. I'd like to move a 2nd and a player
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Everyone seems to think he's the next big thing so his price tag is steep from what I see. I have some doubts about him as a prospect but I guess he's set up for success with the system and weapons that are in place.
My guess is the player in your offer better have some value as most of his owners will not let him go cheaply now that we're so close to seeing what he can do.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yeah that's my worry. I think people are pricing him at his ceiling. In 1 QB leagues I can't imagine a young QB being too expensive. I offered a 2nd for Derek Carr, but his owner wants some crazy trade. Hate it when you're just looking to improve your backups, or swap WR6s with someone and they come back with some crazy deal for Barkley that includes the player you want.
In a one start QB team that seems just about right to me with quality of that 2nd player depending on some league factors, mainly roster size.
Also put me on record as saying he is in fact the next big thing. As difficult a schedule as I can honestly ever recall seeing is really my main concern right now. He might make a lot of mistakes, but Watson was on pace for about 20 picks last year and no one is stressing on that. He might cost them some games they'd have won with Alex Smith but he's got weapons, skill set and coaching staff to produce huge numbers and I'll be really surprised if he fails to do that.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
No way I am paying top 20-25 prices for a guy that was basically Eric Ebron with lots of volume.
Engrams's efficiency metrics were a lot closer to a rookie Ebron than they were to a rookie Gronk or Kelce, which is the prices we are talking about here.
Earning volume as a rookie TE certainly isn't nothing so I don't mean to disparage that, but he still has to make a massive leap ability wise to enter that kind of territory and at those prices it seems like building that big leap into his value.
Just to illustrate the difference, Engram's 64-722-6 last year came on the same number of targets Gronk had in his 2nd year when he put up 90-1327-17.
Obviously a Brady target and an Eli target aren't equal but that is beyond a massive disparity. I think the chances are more than fair that we've already seen Engram's career high in targets.
-OZ-
Footballguy
at the bolded. If I give it much thought there's no way Engram is a top 16 player IMO.Agree on Goff. Not to suggest he's elite yet, but I'll be happy to draft him outside the top 5 in dynasty. Just took him after Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson, Wentz, and Watson. Not crazy value but in a 16 team league I was happy with it. (Pick 4.13)
