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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (15 Viewers)

-OZ- said:
:lol: at the bolded. If I give it much thought there's no way Engram is a top 16 player IMO.
Yeah it has a lot to do with the TE landscape. Who would you rather have right now? Maybe Gronk for this season. After that it's Engram for a while. He might be a 1st pick next year if he hits his ceiling this year like Gronk was when he hit his peak. 

I'm buying where i can get him. Most owners aren't trading him. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
No way I am paying top 20-25 prices for a guy that was basically Eric Ebron with lots of volume. 

Engrams's efficiency metrics were a lot closer to a rookie Ebron than they were to a rookie Gronk or Kelce, which is the prices we are talking about here. 

Earning volume as a rookie TE certainly isn't nothing so I don't mean to disparage that, but he still has to make a massive leap ability wise to enter that kind of territory and at those prices it seems like building that big leap into his value. 

Just to illustrate the difference, Engram's 64-722-6 last year came on the same number of targets Gronk had in his 2nd year when he put up 90-1327-17.

Obviously a Brady target and an Eli target aren't equal but that is beyond a massive disparity. I think the chances are more than fair that we've already seen Engram's career high in targets. 
Right. As an Engram owner I am somewhat concerned about his efficiency. I do see volume dropping a little with a healthy OBJ, but not a lot. I don't see Engram as the next Gronk, but I definitely see him closer to Gronk that Ebron. His efficiency has to go up for him to justify what people are paying for him

 
Yeah it has a lot to do with the TE landscape. Who would you rather have right now? Maybe Gronk for this season. After that it's Engram for a while. He might be a 1st pick next year if he hits his ceiling this year like Gronk was when he hit his peak. 

I'm buying where i can get him. Most owners aren't trading him. 
Engram was the 2nd or 3rd TE taken in my recent drafts behind Kelce, ertz. I'd take gronk as I think he plays another 3-5 years despite the rumors.

I just don't think he's "better enough" than a few TEs that go significantly later. Like Howard, njoku, Everett, and still my later choice, Shaheen (like TE 34)

 
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Yeah it has a lot to do with the TE landscape. Who would you rather have right now? Maybe Gronk for this season. After that it's Engram for a while. He might be a 1st pick next year if he hits his ceiling this year like Gronk was when he hit his peak. 

I'm buying where i can get him. Most owners aren't trading him. 
Gronk's been on my avoid list for the last 3 or so seasons. 1. his back. I avoid guys who I would consider higher prone to injury, and his back is a red flag for me- especially after surgery. 2. his price tag. A 1st or 2nd round pick on a TE just isn't worth it to me. 3rd is about as high as I will go. There are a lot of really good TE that can be had round 3-4 that don't drop that much down from Gronk and don't have the injury risk. At least for my liking. 

As far as dynasty goes I'm not sure there's another TE I Would want. TEs rarely make an impact their first season. Olsen's first 5 seasons were practically a pedestrian 50/500/5. His efficiency, by the way, was 57%, not far off from Engrams 56%. 

I think it's short sighted to label Engram as Eric Ebron when it's not like guys have never over come efficiency issues in the past to go on to become elite TEs. The fact that Engram had an immediate impact in that offense when the game hasn't slowed down for him is incredibly encouraging. 

 
One thing people are missing is the giants immediately in the preseason started moving Engram around formation and making a point to get him the ball. He will be heavily targeted again this year. 

 
One thing people are missing is the giants immediately in the preseason started moving Engram around formation and making a point to get him the ball. He will be heavily targeted again this year.
Yes the new staff is moving him around and IMO the reason you have seen stories that Sterling Shepard is more than a slot WR and will play outside more is Engram.

But I don't think that is the biggest thing people are missing. Granted it was a small sample size but majority of the time I'll take a small sample size of a quarter of a season over "what we think" might happen. That sample size last year when he and Odell were on the field together suggested in no way whatsoever that he's in line for a target reduction should Odell give you a healthy 16 games.

The drops were stunningly high and the efficiency horrendous. These things must improve a great deal for him to produce for the kind of value you put on him. I  do think he improves in this area, honestly that's almost a cop out response because it's hard to be that bad again, but he needs to improve more than a little and right now I think it's a valid concern, not his usage or targets. Usage and targets will only be a concern if he can't correct the drops.

 
mozzy84 said:
does mike Williams have any value?   Someone actually cut him in my league  (we cut 8 guys down to 20 players)
I'm in a 12 team, Keep 13 league, and Mike Williams still makes my keeper list, personally. Can't see how he wouldn't make a 20 player keeper list, personally. Just too much potential with a high draft pedigree to not keep him one more year.

 
I'm in a 12 team, Keep 13 league, and Mike Williams still makes my keeper list, personally. Can't see how he wouldn't make a 20 player keeper list, personally. Just too much potential with a high draft pedigree to not keep him one more year.
Agree, that really makes no sense.

Your roster requirement are close to FFPC, 12 teams and 16 keepers but with a K and D that's 14 position keepers. In that format I offered picks as high as 2.2 during the draft and could not get it done so yea he has value.  He gave pretty much nothing positive to go on last year but he also really never had a chance with this injury. I just can't fathom giving up especially now that he may be leaned on more in red zone without a viable TE threat.

 
Dr. Dan said:
Thoughts on Mahomes value? Trying to trade for him, but not sure what would be considered fair. I'd like to move a 2nd and a player
Just moved Matt Ryan and Lamar Miller (was my RB5 in a start 1-2 max) for Mahomes and 4.8.  He needed RB help badly.

 
Gronk's been on my avoid list for the last 3 or so seasons. 1. his back. I avoid guys who I would consider higher prone to injury, and his back is a red flag for me- especially after surgery. 2. his price tag. A 1st or 2nd round pick on a TE just isn't worth it to me. 3rd is about as high as I will go. There are a lot of really good TE that can be had round 3-4 that don't drop that much down from Gronk and don't have the injury risk. At least for my liking. 

As far as dynasty goes I'm not sure there's another TE I Would want. TEs rarely make an impact their first season. Olsen's first 5 seasons were practically a pedestrian 50/500/5. His efficiency, by the way, was 57%, not far off from Engrams 56%. 

I think it's short sighted to label Engram as Eric Ebron when it's not like guys have never over come efficiency issues in the past to go on to become elite TEs. The fact that Engram had an immediate impact in that offense when the game hasn't slowed down for him is incredibly encouraging. 
Fwiw, I took gronk at pick #46, 3.14. 

I'll agree that he cost too much in most leagues in previous seasons.

 
That's the price it'll probably take. Wow.  I think I lean Ryan/Miller, depending on your other QB's.
Goff.  In a start 1-2 RB, I have Bell, McCaffrey, Howard and Ronald Jones.  Haven't started Miller more than a handful of time since I acquired him 2 years ago so I found him expendable.  

Possible overpay, but small enough that I'm happy to do it given Mahomes' ceiling - whereas we know what Ryan is already.

 
Agree, that really makes no sense.

Your roster requirement are close to FFPC, 12 teams and 16 keepers but with a K and D that's 14 position keepers. In that format I offered picks as high as 2.2 during the draft and could not get it done so yea he has value.  He gave pretty much nothing positive to go on last year but he also really never had a chance with this injury. I just can't fathom giving up especially now that he may be leaned on more in red zone without a viable TE threat.
Yep 12 team ppr. I agree, granted that team is deep at WR but I was still shocked or assumed he had more value than that. I would have given him 2.03 which I draft at in the second.

 
Just moved Matt Ryan and Lamar Miller (was my RB5 in a start 1-2 max) for Mahomes and 4.8.  He needed RB help badly.
Excellent deal...Miller is what he is and it that is very mediocre...Ryan is real dicey in fantasy and in a 1 QB league you really don't want to be starting him...Mahomes is going into his second year and Andy Reid has committed to him...he has some great weapons that are young...just a ton of upside here...you gave up very little for a QB that has a chance to be a stud for the next 10-12 years...there is absolutely no downside to making this move...

 
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Yes the new staff is moving him around and IMO the reason you have seen stories that Sterling Shepard is more than a slot WR and will play outside more is Engram.

But I don't think that is the biggest thing people are missing. Granted it was a small sample size but majority of the time I'll take a small sample size of a quarter of a season over "what we think" might happen. That sample size last year when he and Odell were on the field together suggested in no way whatsoever that he's in line for a target reduction should Odell give you a healthy 16 games.

The drops were stunningly high and the efficiency horrendous. These things must improve a great deal for him to produce for the kind of value you put on him. I  do think he improves in this area, honestly that's almost a cop out response because it's hard to be that bad again, but he needs to improve more than a little and right now I think it's a valid concern, not his usage or targets. Usage and targets will only be a concern if he can't correct the drops.
I know Engram himself has said it’s something he needs to address but I thought I read somewhere that he had 5 or 6? Over the course of an entire season with a healthy target share, that doesn’t seem very significant to me. Just an overblown narrative. 

His efficiency was probably terrible because the offense wasn’t good.

 
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I know Engram himself has said it’s something he needs to address but I thought I read somewhere that he had 5 or 6? Over the course of an entire season with a healthy target share, that doesn’t seem very significant to me. Just an overblown narrative. 

His efficiency was probably terrible because the offense wasn’t good.


Good question and I had to go look up my data and it's confusing. I had just read an article a few days which said he led all TE's in drops with 11, source was PFF.  So  I was thinking 11, but must say I did not think the number was that high. But that's PFF, and I just checked another site which shows him with 5 and I think the 5 is official. I agree, 5 is not that bad.

 
Good question and I had to go look up my data and it's confusing. I had just read an article a few days which said he led all TE's in drops with 11, source was PFF.  So  I was thinking 11, but must say I did not think the number was that high. But that's PFF, and I just checked another site which shows him with 5 and I think the 5 is official. I agree, 5 is not that bad.
I think I read an MFL news blurb the other day that said 6 (the headline was that drops are an issue for Engram). Like you I looked somewhere else and it said 5....so yeah, pretty confusing! I’m more interested in what he actually does catch I guess. Drops happen.

 
I think I read an MFL news blurb the other day that said 6 (the headline was that drops are an issue for Engram). Like you I looked somewhere else and it said 5....so yeah, pretty confusing! I’m more interested in what he actually does catch I guess. Drops happen.
The drops are the least of it. Catch pct, YPT, YPR, etc were all really terrible. 

 
His value is already sky high, there is no buy low on him. I couldn't even get him for Gronk.
He didn't say buy low, he said buy before he's untouchable.  Anyone that owns Engram does so because they buy into his potential.  He's pretty much a full-on WR that just happens to be listed as a TE.  His skill set is much more Brandon Marshall than Gronkowski including how often/well he blocks (actually Marshall might have been a better blocker).  That's good for fantasy.  Really good.  No one else has a ceiling like that.  And if he puts up a 15.0 PPG this year he'll be untouchable.

There's a bit of confirmation bias involved, but no one that has Engram is going to take Gronkowski for him.  We have him based on his ability to put up those points for 10+ years.  I have Gronkowski in one TE premium league I won last year and am a big favorite to win again and I would trade Gronkwoski in 2 seconds flat for Engram straight up.  I offered Gronkowski and a 1st for Engram and was turned down.

 
He didn't say buy low, he said buy before he's untouchable.  Anyone that owns Engram does so because they buy into his potential.  He's pretty much a full-on WR that just happens to be listed as a TE.  His skill set is much more Brandon Marshall than Gronkowski including how often/well he blocks (actually Marshall might have been a better blocker).  That's good for fantasy.  Really good.  No one else has a ceiling like that.  And if he puts up a 15.0 PPG this year he'll be untouchable.

There's a bit of confirmation bias involved, but no one that has Engram is going to take Gronkowski for him.  We have him based on his ability to put up those points for 10+ years.  I have Gronkowski in one TE premium league I won last year and am a big favorite to win again and I would trade Gronkwoski in 2 seconds flat for Engram straight up.  I offered Gronkowski and a 1st for Engram and was turned down.
I made trade for Engram a couple months ago.  I was able to get Engram and rookie pick 16 for Devonte Parker and rookie pick 24.  I was thrilled.  Then the OTA hype train kept rolling right after it was made.

 
Nice passive brag but terrible owners that are Dolphin fans don't count.
Nice edit.  Just posting what Engram went for. I think he's a lot easier to get than most are making it out to be. Depends on roster construction.   The picks likely should have been flipped but one year prior Engram was going in the second round of rookie drafts and Parker was being traded for late firsts ready to breakout.  I like Parker but was loaded at WR.

 
Nice edit.  Just posting what Engram went for. I think he's a lot easier to get than most are making it out to be. Depends on roster construction.   The picks likely should have been flipped but one year prior Engram was going in the second round of rookie drafts and Parker was being traded for late firsts ready to breakout.  I like Parker but was loaded at WR.
I have Engram and I would not give him up for 3 Devante Parker's and that pick...not to be a jerk but that deal is not indicative of his value...

 
I have Engram and I would not give him up for 3 Devante Parker's and that pick...not to be a jerk but that deal is not indicative of his value...
According to the value charts the value is closer to 2 Parker's.   Engram is worth 15 in the July Dan Hindery article and Parker is 7.  Engram's value is more in line with Josh Gordon, Sammy Watkins, Corey Davis, and DJ Moore.

Of those I'd rather have Watkins or Davis.

 
His value is already sky high, there is no buy low on him. I couldn't even get him for Gronk.
I got him for Burton and Kirk in a FFPC TE premium league. I'm in on Burton, but that to me is still buying low. For that team it was about a perfect trade.

But I would add that before Henry tore his ACL depending on the day you asked me I'd have listed Engram or Henry as #1 dynasty TE. I bring this up to say if long term is your goal he's the best buy low player going right now in TE premium leagues and notice I said player, not just TE.

 
According to the value charts the value is closer to 2 Parker's.   Engram is worth 15 in the July Dan Hindery article and Parker is 7.  Engram's value is more in line with Josh Gordon, Sammy Watkins, Corey Davis, and DJ Moore.

Of those I'd rather have Watkins or Davis.
That's not reality though.  I'd venture a guess that 90%+ of dynasty owners would take Engram over Parker easily..

****ooops.  misread your post.  You said (2) Parkers.  I thought it was comparing Engram to Parker straight up.

 
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An offer like that could depend on roster construction - especially with all the talk of Gronk retiring. If I wasn't a legit contender I'd stick with Engram.
Yeah I'd take Gronk this year but if I owned Engram I wouldn't trade him for Gronk straight up either. 

 
I have Engram and I would not give him up for 3 Devante Parker's and that pick...not to be a jerk but that deal is not indicative of his value...
Agreed. If I was in a league with you I wouldn't even try to trade for Engram because you value him correctly or at least to close to the way I value him so there's no meat left on the bone. 

To me Engram is worth Gronk and a mid/early 1st. 

 
Yeah I'd take Gronk this year but if I owned Engram I wouldn't trade him for Gronk straight up either. 
I think someone posted something similar but I got Gronk on a team and on that team he's a perfect fit for what he offers. TE premium, team is coming off a championship and roster looks better so major contender, I got depth at TE but it's not good quality depth and cherry on top is I got Brady and that hookup has been been golden on this team for better part of 4 years now. In 2016 when Brady was suspended and Gronk missed a lot of games I felt their loss in a major way, mainly Gronk.

Add all that up and I'd instantly accept an offer that netted me Engram for Gronk.

 
Engram and Gronk went side by side in an FFPC startup I did a couple weeks ago.  I was the one that took Engram BEFORE Gronk and then Gronk went off the board right after.  

 
But I would add that before Henry tore his ACL depending on the day you asked me I'd have listed Engram or Henry as #1 dynasty TE. I bring this up to say if long term is your goal he's the best buy low player going right now in TE premium leagues and notice I said player, not just TE.
:thumbup:

I just traded for Hunter Henry since I’m not contending this year. Gave Fitz and 3.01 for Henry and 2.05 to someone in win now-mode

 
Ok so the FF community seems to be pretty high on the following players:

ODB, Barkley, Engram

But low on the following player:

Eli Manning

This makes no sense whatsoever.  While I agree that Manning looked terrible last year, how can we possibly be so high on these other three (and it would seem that they deserve the love), but not on Eli, at least for redraft anyway?  Even ten years ago I couldn't tell the difference between whether Eli was terrible or if he was in a slump, because when he snapped out of it he looked great.  Could Eli rebound this year? If not then how on Earth are people so high on these 3 skill players?

 
This makes no sense whatsoever.  While I agree that Manning looked terrible last year, how can we possibly be so high on these other three (and it would seem that they deserve the love), but not on Eli, at least for redraft anyway?
He is terrific redraft value it's just in typical one start QB leagues it's so deep that it's hard to get excited about him. He had no chance last year when the injuries hit his receiving core but he was actually a top 10 fantasy QB early last season until he lost his playmakers.

My main knock on him is he is prone to dial up a healthy amount of duds on the year, not as consistent as I'd like out of my QB1. But if I waited on QB and ended up taking Eli in the teen rounds as my QB1 I'd not be upset.

I'm very fond of him and target him heavily  in DE leagues which takes away a little of the boom/bust factor and his value is enhanced by his durability.

 
A player I've been trying to trade for is Joe Williams.  The 49ers spent some money on McKinnon and they seem to like Matt Breida but Joe Williams was drafted in the 4th round last year and went in the mid-late second in rookie drafts. You might be able to land him for a 4th if someone has current rookie fever or use him as a "throw in" to accept somebodies offer you like anyways. I'm excited to watch him this preseason.

 
Ok so the FF community seems to be pretty high on the following players:

ODB, Barkley, Engram

But low on the following player:

Eli Manning

This makes no sense whatsoever.  While I agree that Manning looked terrible last year, how can we possibly be so high on these other three (and it would seem that they deserve the love), but not on Eli, at least for redraft anyway?  Even ten years ago I couldn't tell the difference between whether Eli was terrible or if he was in a slump, because when he snapped out of it he looked great.  Could Eli rebound this year? If not then how on Earth are people so high on these 3 skill players?
It makes perfect sense. Here are some plausible receiving numbers if these players stay healthy:

  • Barkley 500/2
  • ODB 1500/10
  • Engram could have 1000/8
All of those numbers (with 1200+/8+ rushing for Barkley) would have these players close to the top performers at their positions, but that totals to just 3000/20 passing. Add 1000/2 for the rest of the supporting cast, and Eli is at 4000/22, probably with ~15 interceptions. Pretty similar to his 2016 season, in which he finished as QB21 (per PFR).

So where is the problem with that strawman? The numbers for Barkley, ODB, Engram, or the rest of the supporting cast?

Also, why post this in the dynasty thread? Obviously, his age and performance trend are going to make him worth less in dynasty than in redraft.

 
A player I've been trying to trade for is Joe Williams.  The 49ers spent some money on McKinnon and they seem to like Matt Breida but Joe Williams was drafted in the 4th round last year and went in the mid-late second in rookie drafts. You might be able to land him for a 4th if someone has current rookie fever or use him as a "throw in" to accept somebodies offer you like anyways. I'm excited to watch him this preseason.
I guess stranger things have happened but IMO he’s a JAG and likely won’t be in the NFL in 1-2 years. It looks like the 49ers simply wasted a draft pick on him.

I could be wrong of course but a 4th for him? I’d smash accept that. Actually if I owned him anywhere you could have him for free because he would have been on waivers months ago.

 
Ok so the FF community seems to be pretty high on the following players:

ODB, Barkley, Engram

But low on the following player:

Eli Manning

This makes no sense whatsoever.  While I agree that Manning looked terrible last year, how can we possibly be so high on these other three (and it would seem that they deserve the love), but not on Eli, at least for redraft anyway?  Even ten years ago I couldn't tell the difference between whether Eli was terrible or if he was in a slump, because when he snapped out of it he looked great.  Could Eli rebound this year? If not then how on Earth are people so high on these 3 skill players?
2005:
Tiki Barber: 2400 total yards, 53rec, 11 TD
Plaxico: 76-1214-10
Shockey: 65-900-7

Eli: 3700 yards, 24 TD, 18 INT

 
Holy #### we're all old.
I feel like this every time I think back of the WR's I've had starting in the late 90's in their prime and then traded before they fell off.    Moss/Owens and then Fitzgerald and then Calvin Johnson and then Julio/AJ and now shopping them in hopes of the next big thing.

RB is even crazier! 

 
It makes perfect sense. Here are some plausible receiving numbers if these players stay healthy:

  • Barkley 500/2
  • ODB 1500/10
  • Engram could have 1000/8
All of those numbers (with 1200+/8+ rushing for Barkley) would have these players close to the top performers at their positions, but that totals to just 3000/20 passing. Add 1000/2 for the rest of the supporting cast, and Eli is at 4000/22, probably with ~15 interceptions. Pretty similar to his 2016 season, in which he finished as QB21 (per PFR).

So where is the problem with that strawman? The numbers for Barkley, ODB, Engram, or the rest of the supporting cast?

Also, why post this in the dynasty thread? Obviously, his age and performance trend are going to make him worth less in dynasty than in redraft.
Because even though my post was more focused on Eli, it should raise the question of those other 3 player's values as well, in dynasty.  If Eli is garbage then how could these other 3 be so highly valued? It just seems like a major disconnect in FF right now.

I find it unlikely Eli throws 10 TDs to ODB and 8 to Engram but only 4 to other players combined. If he throws for 4000, I'd project something closer to 30 TDs. But I concede the point that maybe these guys could have solid seasons and Eli has a middle of the road season. I just think it's strange when everyone seems to think he is garbage. 

 
Because even though my post was more focused on Eli, it should raise the question of those other 3 player's values as well, in dynasty.  If Eli is garbage then how could these other 3 be so highly valued? It just seems like a major disconnect in FF right now.

I find it unlikely Eli throws 10 TDs to ODB and 8 to Engram but only 4 to other players combined. If he throws for 4000, I'd project something closer to 30 TDs. But I concede the point that maybe these guys could have solid seasons and Eli has a middle of the road season. I just think it's strange when everyone seems to think he is garbage. 
Not everyone thinks he's garbage. He has very little dynasty value, but he never had a high value even when he was young. For redraft I think he's a decent play. The Giants have surrounded him with so much talent he will do well by default.

 
It makes perfect sense. Here are some plausible receiving numbers if these players stay healthy:

  • Barkley 500/2
  • ODB 1500/10
  • Engram could have 1000/8
All of those numbers (with 1200+/8+ rushing for Barkley) would have these players close to the top performers at their positions, but that totals to just 3000/20 passing. Add 1000/2 for the rest of the supporting cast, and Eli is at 4000/22, probably with ~15 interceptions. Pretty similar to his 2016 season, in which he finished as QB21 (per PFR).

So where is the problem with that strawman? The numbers for Barkley, ODB, Engram, or the rest of the supporting cast?

Also, why post this in the dynasty thread? Obviously, his age and performance trend are going to make him worth less in dynasty than in redraft.
So the rest of the roster gets a combined thousand yards? I don’t like Eli but the spot is too bad for him to be worse than qb10.

 
Ok so the FF community seems to be pretty high on the following players:

ODB, Barkley, Engram

But low on the following player:

Eli Manning

This makes no sense whatsoever.  While I agree that Manning looked terrible last year, how can we possibly be so high on these other three (and it would seem that they deserve the love), but not on Eli, at least for redraft anyway?  Even ten years ago I couldn't tell the difference between whether Eli was terrible or if he was in a slump, because when he snapped out of it he looked great.  Could Eli rebound this year? If not then how on Earth are people so high on these 3 skill players?
Because you're in a dynasty thread.

 
I guess stranger things have happened but IMO he’s a JAG and likely won’t be in the NFL in 1-2 years. It looks like the 49ers simply wasted a draft pick on him.

I could be wrong of course but a 4th for him? I’d smash accept that. Actually if I owned him anywhere you could have him for free because he would have been on waivers months ago.
Yep. He’s on waivers in 95% of my leagues.

 

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