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WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (6 Viewers)
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Ruffrodys05
IBL Representative
You are over thinking this......he is dynasty material.....you have to find room at the end of your roster.....or you will regret doing otherwise....you have to be stacked in order to consider tossing him out there for others.
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The Jacket
Footballguy
I mean...
Flashes his ability in week 8 vs Indy. So it all starts there:
5 rec, 98 yards, TD
3 rec, 11 yards
10 rec, 89 yards
4 rec, 53 yards
9 rec. 52 yards
5 rec, 53 yards
6 rec, 66 yards, TD
Next two weeks he's not really in the game plan or crappy Alex Smith's vision for whatever reason. Instead of receiving, he goes:
70 yards rushing, TD
95 yards rushing, TD
Final week: 5 rec, 46 yards
And this is all COMPLETELY ignoring his best-in-the-world, game-changing special teams production.
As a ROOKIE. With Captain Checkdown at QB.
---
By all means go with your safe player. Just don't get too jealous when we watch Reek exploding for huge TDs week in and week out.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
How can you "get burned" in a dynasty? You already have him, all you have to do is keep him, no? Unless you have microscopic rosters I don't know how there's any heartburn here at all.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Maclin came back at the end of the season, and Kelce freaking exploded.
His touches will be hard to predict, I'm gonna temper expectations next year....note to self, do not over-draft
The Jacket
Footballguy
I think if anything his touches will go up/stabilize, now that he's shown the coaches and his teammates what he can do, and the question will be whether or not he can break so many huge plays. If I had to guess, I'd say less total touchdowns for sure, but also more catches and more yardage - maybe considerably so.
boilerdave
Footballguy
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
I think he is a special player and not sure some of the comparisons above are really accurate.....Hill doesn't remind me of any of those guys....he seems to have an extra gear that I just haven't seen before....anyway....
my question is...and maybe somebody can help me with this.....they have him returning punts.....why not kickoffs too?....they put D'Anthony Thomas back there....??????
my question is...and maybe somebody can help me with this.....they have him returning punts.....why not kickoffs too?....they put D'Anthony Thomas back there....??????
CentralPA
Footballguy
I've got until August to decide but I think he is keeper material. These playoffs may cement it.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Tyreek's production is remarkable given the number of touches. He won't be fully intergrated into the offense until next season & his touches will go way up. I believe Tyreek will have a good shot at 10 combined receiving/rushing TDs every year.
There's so many things you can do with him. He's only scratched the surface of what he's capable of. Tyreek is the most explosive player in the NFL & it's not close. He combines football ability with world class speed, exceptional quickness/change of direction (including a nice spin move), & he's strong.
Tyreek is developing his WR technique after playing mostly RB in college. The scary thing is he's still got a lot of headroom & can become a much better WR. Super-high ceiling as a WR/RB/offensive weapon.
There's so many things you can do with him. He's only scratched the surface of what he's capable of. Tyreek is the most explosive player in the NFL & it's not close. He combines football ability with world class speed, exceptional quickness/change of direction (including a nice spin move), & he's strong.
Tyreek is developing his WR technique after playing mostly RB in college. The scary thing is he's still got a lot of headroom & can become a much better WR. Super-high ceiling as a WR/RB/offensive weapon.
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The Jacket
Footballguy
Unanimous All-Pro. 1 of only 2 who achieved that feat.
Not bad, not bad.
Not bad, not bad.
I get that there is risk associated with Hill, but I am kind of shocked that someone would let him go for 1.12 in a rookie draft. Historically, half the players taken in the first round will NEVER have an NFL season as strong as Hill already has in his first year.
Yes, there are plenty of reasons to temper expectations, but give me a first year player who has proven themselves on an NFL field over most rookies any day of the week.
Think of it this way... would you trade Hill for Treadwell right now? Treadwell had more bona fides than any rookie that is gonna be available with the seventh pick in this draft.
Yes, there are plenty of reasons to temper expectations, but give me a first year player who has proven themselves on an NFL field over most rookies any day of the week.
Think of it this way... would you trade Hill for Treadwell right now? Treadwell had more bona fides than any rookie that is gonna be available with the seventh pick in this draft.
squistion
Footballguy
Can't answer that as I don't own Hill.
However as a Treadwell owner in several leagues I wouldn't swap him straight up Hill.
I have Hill, and no, I would not trade him for Treadwell at this point. That said, I guess I should confess that I live in Mississippi and watched Treadwell...
This is what I posted about him on another website before the NFL draft last Spring:
I am less of a believer of Treadwell.
On the whole, he had pretty impressive stats for the season – 76-1082-8… but if you look one level deeper you find that its a tale of two players… when he faced weak corners he dominated, but when he faced NFL caliber CBs he was pedestrian. He played 12 games last year, five against CBs that are draftable per ESPN (Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi State & LSU) and seven that were not.
In the five games against good CBs he had 25 catches for 307 yards and 3 TDs (Average 5 catches, 61 yards, .6 TDs)
Against the non-NFL caliber CBs he had 51-775-5 (Average 7.3 catches, 110.8 yards, .625 TDs)
The TDs were the same but he only had 68% of the catches per game and 40% of the yards per game.
He was especially limited by Florida’s Vernon Hargreaves (5-42, no TD) Mississippi State’s Will Redmond (4-22, no TD) and to a lesser extent LSU’s Jalen Mills (4-58-1), the three CBs that are expected to go in the first three rounds of the draft.
The one outlier in this is the Sugar Bowl, where he dominated a probable 5th round CB in Oklahoma State’s Kevin Peterson for 6-71-3 TDs, however, it is important to note that Peterson played that game with an ankle injury.
I traded Hill yesterday in a Zealots PPR league with return yardage for Hunter Henry. I'm a big fan of Hill and it was not an easy decision to move him for Henry. However I really needed to secure a young TE with serious potential. I think Henry does.
If I was offered Treadwell for Hill at this point I would decline it as well.
If I was offered Treadwell for Hill at this point I would decline it as well.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I would trade Treadwell for 1.07 so fast.
I would rather have Hill over Treadwell, and if the league gives points for return yards it's not even a close decision.
1.10-1.12 sounds about right if you don't get points for return yards. He was about WR20 in those leagues as a rookie, with some risk of usage with Cherry Bomb calling the plays but with big upside if he gets 200 touches.
WarpedWorld
Footballguy
Zero chances of him getting 200 touches in a season unless you are counting KR/PR touches. I think his ceiling is around 150 touches with an average of 120ish.. Still got a huge upside with those 120 touches anyhow. It's whether his rookie year and big plays are sustainable. Many big-play guys flame out after a couple of years due to defensive planning so I'm skeptical.
Currently have an offer, Hill and my 1.12 for the 1.04 in my 12 team PPR dynasty. I plan to jump all over it.
In the Completed Dynasty Trades topic, Tyreek Hill was recently traded for Treadwell + Crowder
In another trade, Hill went for Rawls + pick 2.1
Hill's value is still a little erratic, but I would say its starting to settle down to somewhere between 1.5 and 1.9
squistion
Footballguy
From what I have seen in recent trades (online not on this forum) Hill is going late 1st, early 2nd (saw a couple mid 2nd) in leagues that don't give points for return yardage or special teams TDs. Comments show a real uneasiness over investing in anything more than that and I really haven't seen people paying the 1.05 - 1.09 price tag. Treadwell may be worth the same or less but most of his owners invested a Top 4 rookie pick for him and have balked (at least in my leagues) at giving him up for what may be even a more speculative unknown late 1st/early 2nd pick.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Will fluctuate a lot depending on league scoring. Return yards he takes a significant jump in, he earned 2.6 PPG from that in my leagues. That doesn't sound like much but moves him from WR24 to WR9
gianmarco
Footballguy
Starting from week 8 onward, Hill got 5+ targets in every game but one. Prior to that, he only got 5 targets in one game.
From weeks 8-17, he was scoring 15.5 ppg in regular ppr scoring. That was good enough for WR9 over that time period (similar to Dez and D. Adams, to compare). If you add in return scoring, he's obviously higher.
If you prorate his rushing/receiving numbers from that 2nd half when he became a starter (technically only started 1 game, but week 8 is when he got consistent snaps), he'd be at 80 receptions/1276 combined yards/11 TDs. That's 275 pts, good enough for WR5 this year.
And he did this as a rookie averaging only ~20 snaps/game. This guy has legit WR1 upside.
I get this is a small sample size and past performance is not always a predictor of future performance, but when you combine that production with his physical talents, I think anyone giving this guy up for 2nd round pick value is potentially throwing away a potential jackpot lottery ticket.
From weeks 8-17, he was scoring 15.5 ppg in regular ppr scoring. That was good enough for WR9 over that time period (similar to Dez and D. Adams, to compare). If you add in return scoring, he's obviously higher.
If you prorate his rushing/receiving numbers from that 2nd half when he became a starter (technically only started 1 game, but week 8 is when he got consistent snaps), he'd be at 80 receptions/1276 combined yards/11 TDs. That's 275 pts, good enough for WR5 this year.
And he did this as a rookie averaging only ~20 snaps/game. This guy has legit WR1 upside.
I get this is a small sample size and past performance is not always a predictor of future performance, but when you combine that production with his physical talents, I think anyone giving this guy up for 2nd round pick value is potentially throwing away a potential jackpot lottery ticket.
I agree completely with regards to valuation and potential.
Human nature being what it is, I suspect the memory of Tyler Lockett, Tavon Austin, Cordarelle Patterson has people more wary of non-traditional breakout seasons than they ought to be.
Ruffrodys05
IBL Representative
I'm not convinced his value is this high to those looking to acquire him. There's no way I could get this for him in my leagues. Of course, this is a highly limited perspective.
Absolutely agree. While I know I couldn't get a 1.5-1.9 for him I'm absolutely positive I wouldn't accept anything less.
As an owner of Hill (and Gabriel,) I'm okay with the prevalent wariness with regards to these types of players. There won't be any serious offers coming in. Those that do will be easy to decline.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Hope this isn't a Hester situation where trying to get him worked into offense completely devalues him on ST.
JackReacher
Footballguy
Choo Choo!
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
kind of got slammed in the Mock Draft Forum here at FBG for pulling the trigger on him so early in the WSL Survivor drafts that have already been completed.....in those leagues he finished as WR18 last year and I took him as WR17 and then as WR24.....16 team/PPR/no return yards/start 3 WR s....some good discussion in there...
KC fan that watched every snap last year and the stats gianmarco referenced above were a big reason why I pulled the trigger......Hill's touches will go up and he is no joke with the ball in his hands...
in redrafts I see him being a classic case of a guy that everybody would love to have and will be "sitting" on and pissed when they don't get him.....this in itself may have is ADP creep up a little higher than it should, but it most leagues it only takes that one guy to pull the trigger on what other people think is "too early"....and then he is on somebody else's team and not yours....
the guy probably finished as a solid WR2 in most any format....and thats with the run he got that gianmarco referred to above.....Reid is going to give him more touches and will at least have him on the field for a ton of snaps....why wouldn't you?.....IMO he should be on the field for every snap...even if the play is not designed for him, his mere presence on the field changes defenses...I know you can say that about a lot of guys, but something seems different about his explosiveness and where he lines up can jack with people....he will be on a ton of my teams and I hope the Lockett, Austin, Patterson comparisons continue....
KC fan that watched every snap last year and the stats gianmarco referenced above were a big reason why I pulled the trigger......Hill's touches will go up and he is no joke with the ball in his hands...
in redrafts I see him being a classic case of a guy that everybody would love to have and will be "sitting" on and pissed when they don't get him.....this in itself may have is ADP creep up a little higher than it should, but it most leagues it only takes that one guy to pull the trigger on what other people think is "too early"....and then he is on somebody else's team and not yours....
the guy probably finished as a solid WR2 in most any format....and thats with the run he got that gianmarco referred to above.....Reid is going to give him more touches and will at least have him on the field for a ton of snaps....why wouldn't you?.....IMO he should be on the field for every snap...even if the play is not designed for him, his mere presence on the field changes defenses...I know you can say that about a lot of guys, but something seems different about his explosiveness and where he lines up can jack with people....he will be on a ton of my teams and I hope the Lockett, Austin, Patterson comparisons continue....
JackReacher
Footballguy
Definitely looks likes a more accomplished receiver than Austin or Patterson. I underestimated him at first glance, but thanks to many here, I took a closer look. Was surprised to see he's 5'10 185. Figured him to be 5'8 max. I really took notice during the first Denver game in November. He did his return thing.. but what really sold me, was that when Reid needed someone to make a play on the last play of the game. He went to Hill.
Below pulled from game story:
"First by completing an 11-yard out route to Tyreek Hill — who, in a star-turn, became the first player since Gale Sayers in 1965 to score a rushing, receiving and return touchdown in the same game — for a first down that put the Chiefs in scoring position with 15 seconds left, then by finding Hill on a 3-yard slant that was eventually reviewed and ruled a touchdown."
You have one shot to tie tight inside the five, and you go to the jitterbug? He proved to me that he's much more than that on that play.
JackReacher
Footballguy
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
I think you may be hard pressed to find a draft where at least one owner isn't in love with his game and jumps on him in the WR20 area.Ilov80s said:
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Good point, only takes 1 owner. I still think when it comes down to it most owners are heavily influenced by the groupthink ADP rankings that the big sites put out.
JackReacher
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
There's going to be a lot of movement as always and I'm thinking he gets passed up by other WRs. Ends up around WR30.
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
A few player comps on the "increased usage" for 17:
Who's the better usage comp, Edleman or DeSean Jackson?
Targeting 100 times out of the slot and his value goes bananas, KCs O using go routes is a waste.
My 2c is that they keep Hill as a PT returner and move his PT to lining up in the slot.
Who's the better usage comp, Edleman or DeSean Jackson?
Targeting 100 times out of the slot and his value goes bananas, KCs O using go routes is a waste.
My 2c is that they keep Hill as a PT returner and move his PT to lining up in the slot.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Polls like that don't catch outliers though, and Tyreek is outlier central. "It only takes one" can't happen in those polls, so it might be more accurate to see when someone put him in the Other vote.
nightmare
Footballguy
I like that except it A Reid and A Smith. Makes me think he is this years version of T Lockette.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
As I've said I'm not a huge fan of comparing guys and I hope the group think continues to think he is next years version of _______. I've never really understand that being a factor in where you draft a guy. "I'm going to pass on Player B cause last year Player X did not live up to the expectations." What Lockette did or didn't do last year should have nothing to do with whether you draft Hill or not.
If Lockette would have went off last year, does that mean you would bump Hill up in your rankings?
To me they really have nothing to do with each other. If you are going to think Hill is going to regress....fine....but it should be based on something a little stronger than what the hell Lockette did (or didn't do).
Borden
Footballguy
I don't want to speak for nightmare but it seems more like a grade school kid saying, "I hope Sally doesn't break my heart like Jenny did last year." The two aren't being compared, just stating worry about another broken heart.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
nightmare
Footballguy
I quoted WR22-23 and think Hill could crush that except he is limited by Reid/Smith. 2015 T Lockette
was a WR3 and showed WR2 (or WR1) potential and in 2016 was this message boards up and comer,
drafted as WR2, and people got burned.
I still like Lockette and I would draft Hill as a WR2 and may "overpay" by drafting him a round early but I
would have to also be planning on drafting a WR2 that has dropped-like a 2016 E Sanders.
was a WR3 and showed WR2 (or WR1) potential and in 2016 was this message boards up and comer,
drafted as WR2, and people got burned.
I still like Lockette and I would draft Hill as a WR2 and may "overpay" by drafting him a round early but I
would have to also be planning on drafting a WR2 that has dropped-like a 2016 E Sanders.
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Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Fair enough.... I guess my point really is why is he being compared to a guy like Lockett who disappointed instead of a guy that didn't disappoint....?...why do the comparisons seem to be with guys like Lockett, Patterson, etc....instead of WR2 types that back up a strong year with another strong year....I guess I'll answer my own question....I guess it's because people are mistakenly labeling this guy as a gadget player for some reason.....special team TD dependent or something..but if you really watch his game, its really not about all that....I don't want to speak for nightmare but it seems more like a grade school kid saying, "I hope Sally doesn't break my heart like Jenny did last year." The two aren't being compared, just stating worry about another broken heart.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Depends what you consider "gadget". Him and Tavon Austin were the only WRs in the league last year who was heavily dependent on rushing stats be fantasy "viable" over the long term. For Austin, Viable means a good back-up in a start 4 WR league.
I think in many cases the comparison is found after the evaluation. For instance, if I expect Hill will not live up to the lofty expectations many have for him, and thus value him lower than many, I might then cast about for another example of a player with a strong season built out of a mix of offensive and special teams success who regressed badly, and find Tyler Lockette. No implication that Lockett's performance has any effect on Hill's, just that I expect a similar track.
It isn't the best choice of comparisons since Lockett's difficulties were at least partly injury-induced. But then no comparison is likely to be perfect, and the context still clearly suggests what is being compared.
dipandglide
Footballguy
If he sees 100+ targets he'll easily be a wr2+. Smith's skill set fits perfect with Hill's in that he can get him the ball within 10-15 yds of the LOS. We all saw what happens when he gets the ball in his hands...
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