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WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (2 Viewers)

Lessons are hard learned in this space
Not really. I looked into it. He's guaranteed 52.25 million dollars or something like that just for signing. He's not seeing his fourth year, really, because it's like 72 million dollars if he's rostered through three. At least that's what I'm seeing. 

And that's a staggering amount. 

 
They got a pretty good assortment of draft picks coming back to them, but this seems like a very strange move for the Chiefs.  They're a super bowl team with Hill.  I'm not sure about that today. 


I don't think the move was made by the Chiefs... they reportedly made a solid offer to Hill ("would make him one of the highest paid WR").

Hill turned it down so now you trade him instead of lose him.

 
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Davante Adams' deal was first reported as a 5 year, $140M deal, but after a few days we learned its really a 3 year, $67.8M deal ($22.6M APY).  There's no way Adams ever gets to years 4 or 5 of his contract.  Now people are losing their minds over a $120m deal reported by Drew Rosenhaus.  Lessons are hard learned in this space.
Looks like 72 over 3 for Tyreek. 

Davante Adams base salary in years 4/5 are 35 million. He's clearly not seeing those years. A very reasonable deal for LV 

but people are stupid, and prefer hearing 28 MILLION PER YEAR

 
Looks like 72 over 3 for Tyreek. 

Davante Adams base salary in years 4/5 are 35 million. He's clearly not seeing those years. A very reasonable deal for LV 

but people are stupid, and prefer hearing 28 MILLION PER YEAR


Its really just that time of year, as someone whose name I forget said on Twitter a while back, when NFL agents get to temporarily change their professional titles to "NFL source."

 
Economics are really kicking in. If you are paying for a top QB it seems like you can't afford a top WR for them anymore?
If the new standard for a top WR is going to be $25-30M/year, then absolutely not. Can't believe teams are paying WRs that much now.

But let's not put these huge limiting QB contracts all on management either. It takes 2 to tango, and the QBs have to agree to it as well. I'd like to think Pat or Aaron were smart enough to know they'd be taking huge losses of talent alongside them when they put their names on the dotted line.

 
Still waiting on confirmation for the latter, but DA's contract comes in more realistically at $22.5 MM per (vs. headline $28 MM) and TH's at $24 MM per (vs. headline $30 MM).

Aside from inflating egos and Agents peacocking, one other aspect to this trend I wonder about it how this affects the Franchise Tag salary calculation. We knows the players absolutely hate the tag. Is this a back-ended way of undermining it? E.g. will the next Franchised WR now reap the benefits of these inflated avg annual salaries? Not entirely sure how the calculation is structured, but this would be an interesting angle, if it works this way. We now have at least three examples of this occurring, if you include Hopkins.

 
Contracts notwithstanding, I think GB will miss Adams, more than KC will miss Hill. 
I think they’re both enormous blows. Tyreek was the engine in that offense imo. He allowed everything to happen underneath with Kelce and others so easily because you constantly had to account for him down the field. And even still, he would still routinely burn you.  And he proved he was much more than a one-trick pony. His presence alone drawing coverage cannot be replicated. I’m not saying he’s the best overall WR in the league, but he may be the most impactful.  

 
I think they’re both enormous blows. Tyreek was the engine in that offense imo. He allowed everything to happen underneath with Kelce and others so easily because you constantly had to account for him down the field. And even still, he would still routinely burn you.  And he proved he was much more than a one-trick pony. His presence alone drawing coverage cannot be replicated. I’m not saying he’s the best overall WR in the league, but he may be the most impactful.  
I don't disagree, I just think they have other players, Green Bay really doesn't. I also think Adams likely ages better than Hill, as he's not as reliant on his speed. 

I do feel like its entirely possible KC isn't a playoff team right now. 

 
I think they’re both enormous blows. Tyreek was the engine in that offense imo. He allowed everything to happen underneath with Kelce and others so easily because you constantly had to account for him down the field. And even still, he would still routinely burn you.  And he proved he was much more than a one-trick pony. His presence alone drawing coverage cannot be replicated. I’m not saying he’s the best overall WR in the league, but he may be the most impactful.  
I don't disagree, I just think they have other players, Green Bay really doesn't. I also think Adams likely ages better than Hill, as he's not as reliant on his speed. 

I do feel like its entirely possible KC isn't a playoff team right now. 


Neither of these players can be replaced in the draft or FA. For me, the answer to the question depends not only on production from other receivers, but also on the quality of the QB, the running game, the OL and also the team's defense. All of these are factors in how a team can cope with the loss of an elite player. Another important factor is the coaching staff's flexibility and creativity in shifting the gameplan to account for an important personnel change from last season's model.

 
Contracts notwithstanding, I think GB will miss Adams, more than KC will miss Hill. 
This must be some sort of "Jake-from-State-Farm Curse".  Mahomes still has Kelce, plus the Chiefs added JuJu.  Rodgers has a mish-mash of backup-level receivers (Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers, Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan).  Each team is likely to address their WR needs in the draft, and whoever they land will likely be fantasy priorities, especially in dynasty drafts.

 
Contracts notwithstanding, I think GB will miss Adams, more than KC will miss Hill. 
I believe they’ll both miss them both, respectively. GB will miss Adams more because they have less around him. KC still has Hardman, Kelce & Juju.

GB has Lazard and…..uh. Yeah. 

 
I do feel like its entirely possible KC isn't a playoff team right now. 
Agreed.  There is only one AFC team right now that I can say will make the playoffs in 2022 with great confidence, and that team is the Buffalo Bills, as I cannot imagine any of those teams in the East finishing ahead of them barring a Josh Allen injury.  The West and North are both stacked as hell and any team from either division could win their division or finish in last, and the South could be tricky. 

As a Broncos fan, I am just thrilled to have T. Hill out of the division.  To not have to face his scary speed twice a year will be nice, and while the Chiefs offense will still obviously be good, I don't see them being the "we can score at will" team on a regular basis anymore without Hill. 

 
They got a pretty good assortment of draft picks coming back to them, but this seems like a very strange move for the Chiefs.  They're a super bowl team with Hill.  I'm not sure about that today. 
I'm sure the Chiefs are looking at the big picture and will always be contenders with Mahomes. I'm thrilled my Broncos don't have to play Tyreek twice a year. Every time Mahomes went deep it was terrifying. There is no other player like Hill in the NFL. 

 
Agreed.  There is only one AFC team right now that I can say will make the playoffs in 2022 with great confidence, and that team is the Buffalo Bills, as I cannot imagine any of those teams in the East finishing ahead of them barring a Josh Allen injury.  The West and North are both stacked as hell and any team from either division could win their division or finish in last, and the South could be tricky. 

As a Broncos fan, I am just thrilled to have T. Hill out of the division.  To not have to face his scary speed twice a year will be nice, and while the Chiefs offense will still obviously be good, I don't see them being the "we can score at will" team on a regular basis anymore without Hill. 
I think it will be tough for the Broncos this year. We have a new QB and a completely new coaching staff. I think we will get off to a slow start which could be difficult to overcome in the stacked AFC. I like the Broncos in year three with Russ. We will have all of our draft picks and players like Kelce, V Miller, Chandler Jones. K Mack etc will all be old. 

The Bills are the new Patriots. They will beat up on their own division and probably get to play two home playoff games in Buffalo in the middle of winter. The AFC north and west will cannibalize each other. 

 
I had him at 35 in my system and bumped him down to 25 (same as E Mitchell and Pittman).

10/35 ~29% so yeah super close to a third. 
I’d easily still take him over Eli or Pittman but it’s a lot closer than it used to be. He drops from WR3 overall into a much more nebulous WR6~WR15ish type ranking depending on your personal preferences. I don’t see a ton of separation between WR’s in that tier IMO as they all have some questions (and there are some inbound rookies coming next month.) Going to be hard to value until we see him in Miami and if Tua can get him the ball as consistently as one hopes.

 
So where does he go in re-draft now? I wouldn’t feel comfortable taking him in the top-20, although you may just have to bite the bullet and do it. 

 
https://theathletic.com/3206167/2022/03/23/why-friction-between-chiefs-tyreek-hill-led-to-trade-to-dolphins-what-happens-next-in-kc/

On Monday, Hill, according to multiple sources, told the Chiefs that he wanted to top Adams’ deal. As the friction between Hill and the Chiefs grew, the team decided to make a difficult business decision, one that created yet another seismic shift in the landscape of the AFC in a month full of such transactions: Hill was granted permission to seek a blockbuster trade
Updating terms of Davante Adams deal:

Raiders: Adams

Packers: 1st and 2nd rounder

Chiefs: minus Tyreek

:drive:

 
So where does he go in re-draft now? I wouldn’t feel comfortable taking him in the top-20, although you may just have to bite the bullet and do it. 
His numbers are going to slide in Miami for sure. He also has a very solid up and coming WR in Waddle across from him. 

1200/15, 1200/9 last 2 seasons. 

1,000+/10+ TDs or Hill will be livid with the Phins. I don't see Tyreek being a Top5 WR in FF, I'd feel better making him part of a pair with someone else as your FF No 1 WR. If you go WR early then you usually want a 1-2 punch. 

Waddle is going to see a dip in his overall production. 

 
Buckna said:
I’d easily still take him over Eli or Pittman but it’s a lot closer than it used to be. He drops from WR3 overall into a much more nebulous WR6~WR15ish type ranking depending on your personal preferences. I don’t see a ton of separation between WR’s in that tier IMO as they all have some questions (and there are some inbound rookies coming next month.) Going to be hard to value until we see him in Miami and if Tua can get him the ball as consistently as one hopes.
Yeah my "rankings" are of course very fluid. I don't know what to make of this truthfully. I'm holding in dynasty and likely avoiding in redraft. 

 
Similar draft capital, but maybe Miami offered more $$ than the Jets. Drew says MIA offered much more than KC. Plus, players making that kinda dough could be paying up to 10% in state income tax in Jersey. It's been a good week for Jerry Mcguire.

>>Difference in what Chiefs offered Hill and Dolphins offered wasn't small. "Millions of dollars," @DrewJRosenhaus said. Hill loves Miami, but no state income tax in Florida makes a difference. Drew got a financial planner on the phone to break down numbers on that with Tyreek.

There were serious talks with 12 teams on Hill. There was a "time we were talking to" the Jets and it was almost a done deal." Dolphins came through with big offer by Monday night. Knowing WR market was exploding, Drew seized on situation to get Hill more money and new deal.

He spoke to Mahomes and Kelce about his decision.... Asked how close he was to pick the Jets, he said: "I knew I was going to pick Miami no matter what. I'm here all the time. This is home."<<

https://twitter.com/flasportsbuzz/status/1507086433785417735?s=20&t=cwxAEbHPG5zccTShZDDlZA

 
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Not to derail the thread, but if the taxes are different in a state maybe the salary cap should be different for those teams.  

Seems off to be able to offer more money by offering the same money

 
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His numbers are going to slide in Miami for sure. He also has a very solid up and coming WR in Waddle across from him. 

1200/15, 1200/9 last 2 seasons. 

1,000+/10+ TDs or Hill will be livid with the Phins. I don't see Tyreek being a Top5 WR in FF, I'd feel better making him part of a pair with someone else as your FF No 1 WR. If you go WR early then you usually want a 1-2 punch. 

Waddle is going to see a dip in his overall production. 
He didn’t see much of a dip playing along side Smith and Ruggs with Tua throwing to him at Alabama.  Waddle will be a productive asset for fantasy playing with Hill.  Tua loves him.

 
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He didn’t see much of a dip playing along side Smith and Ruggs with Tua throwing to him at Alabama.  Waddle will be a productive asset for fantasy playing with Hill.  Tua loves him.
I didn't say Waddle wasn't going to be productive but he has to share targets this year. Will Fuller was signed as Miami No 2 last season, how many games did he play? How many games did Miami's No 1 miss, DeVante Parker? Quite a few and I'm not trying to be a smart ### with you JU, I'm trying to help you widen your POV here. 

Waddle was the only weapon Miami had at different points last season and his ypc dropped from 20 at Bama to under 10, that's not good IMHO. He'll stretch that back up I'm sure but Tua doesn't throw it far. They are banking on Hill and Waddle breaking long runs off from stick routes and bubble screens, just the early forecast. 

Cheers amigo 

 
Two points I'm going to convey:

A. Julio Jones got $22M over 3 years on his extension he signed with Atlanta. I don't know everyone keeps saying Davante Adams contract changed the WR market. Tyreek's contract, now that changed the market.

B. I think some of you are possibly to in love with Mahomes/Reid because you seeing these projections for Hill you seem to be forgetting how great he is. He's not just fast, he's the best package of speed, COD and power I've ever seen at the position and you are all saying his numbers are on par or worse then his first year as a full time WR with Alex Smith as his QB. That's not giving Tyreek enough credit, the Dolphins enough credit for why they'd pay someone that kind of money for that production or their coach enough credit for knowing how to use this unique talent. I don't think Hill will drop off. TD's are harder to call but I see very minimal drop off in production for Tyreek's receptions and yardage from what he's done the previous two seasons. I mean these number are not even that much better then what rookie Waddle just put up and he's basically a poor mans version of Tyreek.

 
LOL I just got the following offer in FFPC SuperFlex:

I give Tyreek
I get Theilen, Gronk, Taysom, Fitzpatrick,Cam, 2023 3rd & 5th

 
Whats the price check on Waddle now?   Was going to try to get him, but now maybe for a little less?   Was going to combo 1.09 this year and 1st next year.   But now not so sure.  I am looking to win this year, need Upper tier WR.  
maybe a 1st next year????

 
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Whats the price check on Waddle now?   Was going to try to get him, but now maybe for a little less?   Was going to combo 1.09 this year and 1st next year.   But now not so sure.  I am looking to win this year, need Upper tier WR.  
maybe a 1st next year????
I've been moving guys around in my "ranks" due to all the movement and I stared at Waddle's name for a couple minutes and said HODL no change. I hate it for 2022, but he is so young and so good I can't see bumping him down. But I *am* more likely to move him now and he was untouchable before. If someone thinks they can buy low right now, I might just take them up on it if it is the right deal. 

OTOH I have visions of Tyreek and Waddle just absolutely eating angles all over the field and really crushing it. I would hate to give up too early on someone with such a bright future. 

 

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