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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)

I also think if the odds on Paige VanZant get any higher, you have to take a small shot there as well. It is a bad matchup for her, but it is a fight and anything can happen. Once the odds start to get North of +600, why the heck not?  :shrug:
I thought this was interesting, it's from a piece on the actionnetwork

Have bettors swamped the line too much, though? Is there now value on the 6-1 underdog? At some point, does a ’dog become an automatic bet simply because MMA is so unpredictable and because there are so many ways — wild haymaker, fluke submission, freak injury, fight-halting foul — to pull off the upset?

I put that question before a handful of MMA notables — folks whose opinions I value when it comes to breaking down and handicapping fights. The quintet of prognosticators all agreed that Ribas is the rightful favorite, but if money continues to flow her way, does VanZant eventually become the play?

Not everyone was convinced.

“How high would this line have to be? Oh boy. +1000 at a minimum, and even then I wouldn’t feel particularly good about it,” said Shaun Al-Shatti, a senior MMA writer (and my former colleague) at The Athletic. “Because here’s the thing: The UFC knows what they’re doing here. Paige VanZant is marketable, sure, but she’s also a disgruntled fighter on the last bout of her deal.

The UFC isn’t going to fork over the kind of money she’ll be asking for, so instead, they’re pulling the old Joe Silva special — depressing her market value with a matchup that’ll likely lead to a bad loss on her way out. They’ve done this for decades, and they’re damn good at it.”

Link

 
The UFC isn’t going to fork over the kind of money she’ll be asking for, so instead, they’re pulling the old Joe Silva special — depressing her market value with a matchup that’ll likely lead to a bad loss on her way out. They’ve done this for decades, and they’re damn good at it.”

Link
I saw that! That was an angle i had not thought of! Thx for sharing!

 
The UFC isn’t going to fork over the kind of money she’ll be asking for, so instead, they’re pulling the old Joe Silva special — depressing her market value with a matchup that’ll likely lead to a bad loss on her way out. They’ve done this for decades, and they’re damn good at it.”

Link
Nailed it!

 
Really digging Tim Elliot -130 and Molly McAnn -140 tomorrow night. Seem to be popular picks on the MMA sites too, so hopefully we are all seeing the right things

 
They must be teaching Booty some new techniques up there at the film school. Because I'd never seen a woman reach all the way up and choke me by the neck while she was doing work down town before. I tell 'ya that's a different kind of aggression. Different type of mindset altogether! I mean logistics alone doesn't even seem possible.

 
Angry Beavers said:
In other news, the resident dog of the AB household will have to be put down on Friday AM- a tumor in his pituitary gland was the beginning of the end causing him to eventually go blind and now it appears that he has had a mini stroke. Give your four legged friends an extra hug and a treat from Bo. 😭
Yo man. Tell Bo I said what's up. Has he ever tried Reese's peanut butter cups? Dude are you driving because you gotta pick him up some cups on the way in the morning. Drive thru McDonald's and get him a sausage, egg, and cheese biscuit (I know I'm probably making Mr. Lambskin hungry and he probably even salivating just call me Pavlov amirite), but yeah then run next door to the convenience store for the Reese's.

I'm about a year to the day since I made that same appointment you have. My little pit mix Hailey was 16 years old. That's old, now! I'm telling you. Anyway, the little vet tech who'd woken up to let me in early that AM went the extra mile, woke up extra early and brought Hailey a sausage, egg, and cheese biscuit from McDonald's drive thru.. and some Reese's peanut butter cups as well. I was all by myself after that and it was probably damn near the sweetest gesture a person's ever extended me. I got to see Hailey Bo (real talk; that's the nickname I called her), I got to see her enjoy something she'd never tried before in all them 16 years; before I turned and walked out, didn't look back or nuthin. Yo man just an idea. I don't really get the opportunity to recommend it to anyone that girl was a ####in saint I bet. 🤜🤛 Peace brother

 
kicky punchy tonight!  Paging hooter.. but then I saw this...

hooter mma  @hooterknows

3h  No UFC plays tonight. Haven't had time to study anything and don't want to half ### anything with your money or mine.

Respect the heck out of that. 

 
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y'all ever watch YouTube channels for psychology lessons/inspiration/life advice type stuff..? there is this dude going by steph is cold (all one word) who got my attention and got my head nodding a couple months ago so I subscribed. he is a red pill/blue pill -type mentality dude. I think his target audience is college and high school dudes. at first he was gangbusters and rocked my entire mentality. but as I watch more and more he's kind of wearing thin on me. he yells a lot and I have surround sound, so it's not the most-ideal fit. just wondering if you've ever seen anything like it..

 
Booty is taking her 8am-12pm DWI class on my computer. On a zoom meeting. For the next three days. I had neither a webcam nor a microphone but was able to rig an old cellphone via USB. It's working so far. I'd never even heard of zoom meeting. Also I did all her homework for her. :bag:

 
y'all ever watch YouTube channels for psychology lessons/inspiration/life advice type stuff..? there is this dude going by steph is cold (all one word) who got my attention and got my head nodding a couple months ago so I subscribed. he is a red pill/blue pill -type mentality dude. I think his target audience is college and high school dudes. at first he was gangbusters and rocked my entire mentality. but as I watch more and more he's kind of wearing thin on me. he yells a lot and I have surround sound, so it's not the most-ideal fit. just wondering if you've ever seen anything like it..


Booty is taking her 8am-12pm DWI class on my computer. On a zoom meeting. For the next three days. I had neither a webcam nor a microphone but was able to rig an old cellphone via USB. It's working so far. I'd never even heard of zoom meeting. Also I did all her homework for her. :bag:
I think the guy in post 1 would yell something about enabling others and disabling yourself, or similar.  Just my 2 cents.  :D  

 
I feel you. He would definitely yell. Something about how doing a #####'s dwi homework for her sounds like blue pill beta cuck simp ####. Idk. Yo the instructor on this stay jocking her grip pretty hard. We didn't have her camera turned up at first. So was only the sexy voice. But once we flipped on the camera - as per the dwi zoom class meeting state-mandated rulebook - intensity picked up a little. She the entire class now. She the only girl too. At break she was like WHY is he picking on mee!? Sheeit girl u know y :lol: Meanwhile I'm on my 7th white claw :oldunsure:

 
kicky punchy tonight!  Paging hooter.. but then I saw this...

hooter mma  @hooterknows

3h  No UFC plays tonight. Haven't had time to study anything and don't want to half ### anything with your money or mine.

Respect the heck out of that. 
Going through my 2nd or 3rd mid-life crisis at the age of 36.  Selling off my property with the intention of leaving town in the next 60 days.  

My dog is gonna be 16 in a few months, and my kid is about to turn 13 and isn't talking to me at the moment.  Attempted to arrange a meeting with him to discuss where I'll be moving, but his mother wasn't much help.

I've got about 7k riding on democratic vp futures and won't be betting anything else too heavy until they settle.  My psyche is too fragile at the moment to handle losing on top of the rest of the stress.

I'll be back, and better than ever as always.  Just going to take some time to tighten up and get my goals aligned.  Its been one of my most profitable of the 15 years I've been running in the green, but ultimately I hate losing way more than I could ever enjoy winning.

#notkamala

 
Going through my 2nd or 3rd mid-life crisis at the age of 36.  Selling off my property with the intention of leaving town in the next 60 days.  

My dog is gonna be 16 in a few months, and my kid is about to turn 13 and isn't talking to me at the moment.  Attempted to arrange a meeting with him to discuss where I'll be moving, but his mother wasn't much help.

I've got about 7k riding on democratic vp futures and won't be betting anything else too heavy until they settle.  My psyche is too fragile at the moment to handle losing on top of the rest of the stress.

I'll be back, and better than ever as always.  Just going to take some time to tighten up and get my goals aligned.  Its been one of my most profitable of the 15 years I've been running in the green, but ultimately I hate losing way more than I could ever enjoy winning.

#notkamala
Hey man...I luv ya as much as one degen can luv another.  Please allow me to share as respectfully as possible, as a guy who went through his 1 mid-life crisis at 35 and nearly blew up everything:

The ONLY thing that matters is that 13 year old.  He's your legacy, the one thing you leave behind.  Not your bets, not your pet, not your business, and not even your estate.  What will that kid say at your funeral, when he is 88?  That's all that matters.  Do whatever it takes to make that matter.  Eff the rest of it.  Love you bro.  Good luck.

 
Going through my 2nd or 3rd mid-life crisis at the age of 36.  Selling off my property with the intention of leaving town in the next 60 days.  

My dog is gonna be 16 in a few months, and my kid is about to turn 13 and isn't talking to me at the moment.  Attempted to arrange a meeting with him to discuss where I'll be moving, but his mother wasn't much help.

I've got about 7k riding on democratic vp futures and won't be betting anything else too heavy until they settle.  My psyche is too fragile at the moment to handle losing on top of the rest of the stress.

I'll be back, and better than ever as always.  Just going to take some time to tighten up and get my goals aligned.  Its been one of my most profitable of the 15 years I've been running in the green, but ultimately I hate losing way more than I could ever enjoy winning.

#notkamala
echoing facook - having gone thru a couple of mid life turmoils myself - the most important thing is your kid. My 12 year old dog just died and I have more mental health demons that I should admit to, but my son - lets just say that is the sauce. I am divorced from his mom so our relationship was not always easy but when it hits the fan - he knows where to turn. Now that he is 19 and living with me FT ( until college starts again) and doing great - that is all that matters. Work on that relationship. I guess I always figured I had one kid to raise right, I could always make more $ or do what I needed to do for me (particularly when his mom tried to put to him in the middle of stuff and I just wouldn't do that to him. I would rather let her "win" than drag my kid thru that) and you know what - he is old enough now to figure that ish out and we have an awesome relationship!  Hope this helps in some small way with what you have on your mind! 

 
echoing facook - having gone thru a couple of mid life turmoils myself - the most important thing is your kid. My 12 year old dog just died and I have more mental health demons that I should admit to, but my son - lets just say that is the sauce. I am divorced from his mom so our relationship was not always easy but when it hits the fan - he knows where to turn. Now that he is 19 and living with me FT ( until college starts again) and doing great - that is all that matters. Work on that relationship. I guess I always figured I had one kid to raise right, I could always make more $ or do what I needed to do for me (particularly when his mom tried to put to him in the middle of stuff and I just wouldn't do that to him. I would rather let her "win" than drag my kid thru that) and you know what - he is old enough now to figure that ish out and we have an awesome relationship!  Hope this helps in some small way with what you have on your mind! 
That is awesome and I can definitely relate to a lot of what you said. My son's mom took off when she was 8 months pregnant and has now been married to a woman for about 8 years and they somehow have another 4 kids, my son is the oldest.

I've had half custody of him since he was 9 months old and my life pretty much revolved around him when he's with me.  I've never had to hire a babysitter and I try to stay in the same room with him when he's here because I'm sure there isn't enough attention to go around.

I've been in the same house since he was born, his mom moves pretty much every 12 months or so and 8th grade will actually be the first time in his life he's got to go to the same school 2 years in a row.  

So I've tried to be the "stable" one all through the years and I've always paid full child support despite the custody arrangement just to ensure his quality of life.  He grew pretty close to my last girlfriend that I was with a couple years up until about a year ago.  Things kind of fell apart and I cut off all connections with her pretty much as soon as she moved out due to sore feelings.  I intended to immerse myself into work as it was the busy season anyways and I hadn't been giving it my usual focus.  

By the time I came up for air, she was in a relationship with another guy.  Figured it was a rebound and I'd get her back when it ended.  Found out through a friend she got engaged 3 weeks ago to the dude and I've been sulking since.

I'm pretty sure my kid holds it against me that I didn't marry that girl because our relationship has been trash since then.  I see so much of myself in him, he is basically a mini me.  He just refuses to watch or participate in sports to spite me.  I was kind of the same way and actually went from the talented and gifted classes in elementary school to failing 7th grade just to be a rebel.

I do think he is being fed stuff about "how bad of a person" I am because his mom's wife and mother are not fans of hooter, mostly do to lies his mother has told.  I've never been the kind of sling mud so hopefully he's never heard me utter a bad word about his mother.  I don't want to force him to hang out with me, but he hasn't responded to the last 30-40 offers to do something.  I'll keep trying obviously, but I also don't want to feel like I'm negotiating with a terrorist.

Apologies for the rant, thanks for listening.

 
Apologies for the rant, thanks for listening.
Rant away, it is the least we ought to be able to do for one another.  No real great advice other than it sounds like you are doing right by your son and keep doing the best you can by him! 
100%.  Keep doing the right thing hooter, it WILL pay off eventually.

My dad's first wife pulled something similar when she took their twin girls and ran off.  My dad offered to spend time with them, sent them cards and presents and money, begged their mom for visitations.  She told the girls that he wanted nothing to do with them, that he never called, never gave them what he sent, took the money for herself.  They were in their mid 30s before one of them contacted him...and it all came out.  He's had the best relationship with them for the last 20 years or so.  Doesn't erase the pain he went through, but he kept doing the right thing and it eventually paid off.  It will for you too bud.

 
God dang Hoot she sounds unpleasant brother. Yeah man just take deep breaths and do that healthy focus on you. You're a talented man. You have everything you need to succeed. I have a feeling you have a spiritual, "seeking the secret ebbs and flows of the universe" mindset like I do. So maybe there's more important stuff to take care of and learn about right now. Yo, my entire life my family always talked mad #### about my mom. Now that I'm in my 30s the #### talkers are all ####### dead and my mom is my best bud after we reconnected. So don't lose faith man, y'all gonna bond one day. Even though you might be 71 years old when it happens (my mom is 71). Just gotta keep on that growth and positivity tip so that when it does happen you're 💯 and trust me he will be a real cool dude one day man.

 
And that girl you just found out is engaged.. what u need to do is figure out your plan, what to do when she comes, or tries to come back into your life. Because they're gonna go through some hardships, man. They're gonna have their problems. And what are the odds one of those problems becomes the single straw that breaks the.. the whatever. Either you gonna be rockin' your #### and leave that text on read for a couple months. Or you gonna be not rockin' and make her spaghetti the same night. Choose rockin' man. Because everything. EVERYTHING. Comes back around. 🤜🤛

And I promise you. PROMISE you on the REAL. Everything is gonna be okay.

 
And that girl you just found out is engaged.. what u need to do is figure out your plan, what to do when she comes, or tries to come back into your life. Because they're gonna go through some hardships, man. They're gonna have their problems. And what are the odds one of those problems becomes the single straw that breaks the.. the whatever. Either you gonna be rockin' your #### and leave that text on read for a couple months. Or you gonna be not rockin' and make her spaghetti the same night. Choose rockin' man. Because everything. EVERYTHING. Comes back around. 🤜🤛

And I promise you. PROMISE you on the REAL. Everything is gonna be okay.
I'm a firm believer in the same philosophy, but it does feel good to hear it from someone else.  Appreciate it brother.

 
Hey man...I luv ya as much as one degen can luv another.  Please allow me to share as respectfully as possible, as a guy who went through his 1 mid-life crisis at 35 and nearly blew up everything:

The ONLY thing that matters is that 13 year old.  He's your legacy, the one thing you leave behind.  Not your bets, not your pet, not your business, and not even your estate.  What will that kid say at your funeral, when he is 88?  That's all that matters.  Do whatever it takes to make that matter.  Eff the rest of it.  Love you bro.  Good luck.
What a great post

 
Going through my 2nd or 3rd mid-life crisis at the age of 36.  Selling off my property with the intention of leaving town in the next 60 days.  

My dog is gonna be 16 in a few months, and my kid is about to turn 13 and isn't talking to me at the moment.  Attempted to arrange a meeting with him to discuss where I'll be moving, but his mother wasn't much help.

I've got about 7k riding on democratic vp futures and won't be betting anything else too heavy until they settle.  My psyche is too fragile at the moment to handle losing on top of the rest of the stress.

I'll be back, and better than ever as always.  Just going to take some time to tighten up and get my goals aligned.  Its been one of my most profitable of the 15 years I've been running in the green, but ultimately I hate losing way more than I could ever enjoy winning.

#notkamala
i'm catching up in the thread, but really had to lol at the bolded/underlined above. This thread is a special place. you tell most people in the world that and they think all kinds of crazy, ignorant things. you mention it in here, and you get a bunch of "good luck" and at the end of the day probably smart investments. 

but it is funny coming out of "real life" work meetings and reading that part first. 

 
Juan Soto just tested positive for COVID. I was still able to get a play on under 12.5 HRs for him. 

I also like the under 7.5 on Gavin Lux (he got sent out yesterday so not even with team).

 
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NYY/LAD chalk/public/donk ML parlay - pays a little better than even $. I am much less confident in the NY end of this as I expect Scherzer to keep NY pretty quiet.  That being said, it is opening night so I had to get a small play in... just cause'

 
Juan Soto just tested positive for COVID. I was still able to get a play on under 12.5 HRs for him. 

I also like the under 7.5 on Gavin Lux (he got sent out yesterday so not even with team).
Unless you have special rules, both would likely be no-action because neither player are on active roster for game 1.

 
Kudos to Betonline/Sportsbetting for following through on their 20% balance boost promotion (not withdrawing) during the pandemic. 👍

Gooroo,

You previously opted into our Balance Boost promotion and your Cash Reward was just credited to your account.

Log in and you’ll see $5,000.00 added to your cash balance. You can use your funds to bet tonight’s MLB matchups, next week’s NBA games and more right now.

 
Kudos to Betonline/Sportsbetting for following through on their 20% balance boost promotion (not withdrawing) during the pandemic. 👍

Gooroo,

You previously opted into our Balance Boost promotion and your Cash Reward was just credited to your account.

Log in and you’ll see $5,000.00 added to your cash balance. You can use your funds to bet tonight’s MLB matchups, next week’s NBA games and more right now.
Damnit I haven't gotten mine yet

 
Not anymore, most books have switched to action for this crazy season
Action for player futures?  I didn't have a single skin (out of about 15) that offered action on season long stuff.

Here is sbets disclaimer:  2020 Regular Season. Must be on active roster for Game 1. Team must play at least 59 games for wagers to have action. Regular Season must be played according to new format.

 
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Action for player futures?  I didn't have a single skin (out of about 15) that offered action on season long stuff.

Here is sbets disclaimer:  2020 Regular Season. Must be on active roster for Game 1. Team must play at least 59 games for wagers to have action. Regular Season must be played according to new format.
My bad, got in confused with the game line, player futures you're right

 

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