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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (5 Viewers)

facook said:
Not mine but I thought  a pretty interesting perspective on 2 games. Hopefully formats ok:

We had 2 teams not show up to play football in the opener in Southern Miss and MTSU. I bet against both. One of those coaches will likely be fired today and the other I believe is going through the motions. 

I have a feeling Syracuse will be another one of these teams. While some teams were excited to get at it with camp at the beginning of August, the entire Syracuse team sat out in protest due to COVID. While I’m not saying they shouldn’t care about their health, this shows the mindset and attitude difference between them and other teams who were excited to get back to playing football. In any sport, and a physical one especially, your attitude determines your success.

In the off-season, they hired a DC and then he left for Mississippi State, so they had to hire another DC. They’re switching to a 3-3-5, with no spring against a top 10 offense.

A number of their players seem caught up in all the distractions and football isn’t their main priority. 2 weeks prior to the season starting a number of players still hadn’t decided if they were opting out or not. Babers was saying they need to make up their mind soon.

Here is a few quotes from players:

“Why am I playing in a country to entertain people that don’t care about our well being unless we’re on the field,” 

“F— playing sports, we don’t need to distract them from sh—”

Now this only 2 players, but this energy will be mirrored by the entire team and we have evidence of that by the team sitting out at the start of camp.

“Babers declined to delve into how his players currently feel about taking the field in 2020. Only redshirt freshman defensive lineman Cooper Dawson has officially opted out, though a source previously told The Post-Standard | Syracuse.com that at least four projected contributors, including three starters, were not planning to play as of last week.”

When you have a team that is excited to play football vs a team who is focused on other things, a top 10 offense against a weak defense implementing a new defense with no spring, a mediocre offense losing 3 of their top 4 WR and bringing in a new OC with no spring, playing against what should be an improved UNC defense in year 2 who dealt with injuries, in a game with tons of plays, you have the potential for a blow-out. How players and teams deal with the chaos of this season comes down to the coaching staff and I have a feeling Babers doesn’t have this under control and is in over his head. This type of subjective opinion isn’t and might not get factored into the line. 

We’ll see on Saturday. I laid UNC through -20.5. The Heels played enough close games last year. They open this season up in roll city fashion.

Back to the Army well. They get their second fade team in a row. Laid as much as Army -17 as I could.

ULM is in a tough situation. They had an 11 day break up of camp due to covid starting on Aug 20. They had to deal with the hurricane. They were prepping for Troy in their first game, but then that was cancelled, so they def weren’t prepping for Army during the early camp. Then they come back September 1st and their DC quits. They have 11 days to prepare for option, get in shape, get back in rhythm, etc. Their rush D was brutal last year, they lose their entire front 7, DE Sykes was ruled ineligible, and their top LB has opted out.. Oddly enough, they have done well vs the Georgia Southern option in the past few year, as a negative. Army offense looked sharp in the opener and ULM has zero chance of stopping them. I think Army will be a little more explosive here than they were vs MTSU as well.

ULM returns only 29% of their production on offense, losing do-it-all QB Evans. Not only that, but they lose their OC, and didn’t get a full spring and had their summer camp broken up. Not sure what their QB is going to look like, but not expecting anything great from this offense, with the lack of important practice time. Again having an 11 day break up in the middle of your camp is just brutal, along with only getting 5 days of camp in the spring makes this a tall task. I don’t expect them to muster much against this decent Army defense that was stout in their shut-out opener. Army already has 1 game under their belt, is oozing with confidence, while ULM is trying to figure things out. It also appears Army made an excellent DC hire in Woody.

Hate laying big chalk with Army, but it’s warranted here. ULM has the potential to be the worst team in the country this year. I’d play through 20.5 and I’m loaded at -17.
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Angry Beavers said:
On UNC and Army ( saw someone post these earlier this week and jumped in - beat the line move quite well in both cases)
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:hifive:

UNC messed around for a while but in the end two nice winners.  Same guy posted Notre Dame under with more nice breakdown, but by the time I saw it it had dropped from 56 to 52 so I left it alone.  I'll keep posting his stuff if he keeps winning.

I am not so sharp....bet Ark St at +10 and got the worst of the number by 5 points.  :lmao:    Good thing they had my back!

 
Dan Lambskin said:
I figured they’d have Darrell in there on the more obvious pass downs, probably want to take some time before letting a rookie pass block for your half a billion dollar QB
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Darrel ####ed off an easy 3rd down and 3. Got stuffed, de-cleated as Madden would say. They converted the subsequent 4th and inches, but significant as far as looking at his role going forward..?

 
What's the play in the night games on national TV? Haven't even looked, but looking to tail 🤜💥🤛 gonna GTL then head back to the crib to wager.. Cheers brother.

 
ChainsawU said:
What's the play in the night games on national TV? Haven't even looked, but looking to tail 🤜💥🤛 gonna GTL then head back to the crib to wager.. Cheers brother.
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Coastal +6, WKU over 55, Clemson TT over 27 1H.  Guaranteed 1-2.  :D  

 
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Jon Gruden pretty darned good on scripted 1st drives.  Going against a rookie coach, rookie OC, new qb, and rookie DC overseeing what most expect to be a pretty bad defense.  Raiders -130 1st Qtr.

 
lumpy19 said:
Betonline surprisingly graded cam Newton +300 to be New England starting QB a winner last night.  After getting burned by Matt cassel Tyrod Taylor trick play to start a game many years ago I’ll take it

they still haven’t graded the first td prop from last nights game
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#### u fat #### ryan... you pos fat ####er

i think that was him right

 
facook said:
:hifive:

UNC messed around for a while but in the end two nice winners.  Same guy posted Notre Dame under with more nice breakdown, but by the time I saw it it had dropped from 56 to 52 so I left it alone.  I'll keep posting his stuff if he keeps winning.

I am not so sharp....bet Ark St at +10 and got the worst of the number by 5 points.  :lmao:    Good thing they had my back!
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gimmie more of that good write up stuff

tnx

 
swirvenirvin said:
in a soccer tournament in ohio.. Had to have to wife drive down so I could cap.  Had 2 hours in between game 2 and 3 today and capped in the car instead of back to hotel.  Guys are all playing poker now and im in the room prepping for tomorrow :(
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You need to run a poker game soon

 
"Tulane supposed to be playing Northwestern today, but as you know, the B10 cancelled their football season." :crazy: Huh? Who cancelled the season? What insurance company does the B10 use. This is what happens. Pay the extra premium and stop trying to save so much money all the time.

 
Les Miles playing with revenge and two weeks to prepare for the next game.. I don't like. Last year when they hosted and lost to the Chanticleers they were looking ahead to a Friday game that week.. now he's looking at two weeks off. And a revenge angle. Wonder how much he's actually worried about non-conference though. Oh well bets are in screw it. Cheers broseph one love amirite.

 
Clemson is just nasty. The crazy thing is, I’m expecting them to do this to better teams. I’m debating a both barrels bet -7.5 at ND, that team is a fraud and Book is mediocre at best.

 
ref....good call fading the Noles. ####### gross play from Blackman.  Gonna be a long year or two, talent just isn't there.

 
Y'all doing any special menus tomorrow? Is it too early for meatballs yet? Is that a cold-weather dish. Can't remember. Always remember you talking about them though. Must be an up-north type deal. Dang Yankee palates and your cheese steaks. Whatta' ya' lookin' at, I'm walkin' here! Amirite? I got scallops - a dozen scallops, a prime Angus chuck roast with a ton of fat on that #####, some chicken kabobs wrapped in bacon, and some lamb chops that I think I'm also going to wrap in bacon. Everything wrapped in bacon. Meatballs wrapped in bacon. Nah, but it's going to be special though. As long as you're not going apple picking with your wife amirite? Pumpkin pulling. Whatever the #### you guys do :lol: She's creeping, just wait. She gonna pick the right moment and pounce. You'll be bailing hay with your mother in law in no time.

 
ChainsawU said:
Noles had a chance but man you gotta run on 4th and two, no?
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Or go for the FG inside the kickers range down 3 with under 4 minutes left with Blackman at QB.  He was reading the WRs late all game, almost got TTerry killed late in the 2nd quarter.  Easy to 2nd guess after the fact, if they got it and ended up scoring a TD i'm cheering right now.  

Maybe all the students and fans around without masks will force us to close the season early.  Can't lose the games you don't play, amirite?

 
got_nugs said:
Maybe all the students and fans around without masks will force us to close the season early.  Can't lose the games you don't play, amirite?
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:lmao:   Can't take this one away from us though!  Maybe we've finally got a QB in Atlanta.  It's only been about 20 years since the last QB we had who could pass consistently like Sims did today.  Just have to make better decisions in the red zone.  GLLLL going forward @got_nugs

 
Yo, somebody queue up the angle about Bronco home games the first couple weeks of the season đź’ˇ I'll go with you on the Broncos for sure. Their WR corps looks banged up at first glance seeing that ESPN crawl across the bottom of the screen. You think that's giving them some additional value on the line? Perceived WR injuries? Does it feel like they've had time to gameplan around that? Because that early-season home angle feels strong. YO especially with no preseason for the visitor to get into game shape yet..

 
ChainsawU said:
Yo, somebody queue up the angle about Bronco home games the first couple weeks of the season đź’ˇ I'll go with you on the Broncos for sure. Their WR corps looks banged up at first glance seeing that ESPN crawl across the bottom of the screen. You think that's giving them some additional value on the line? Perceived WR injuries? Does it feel like they've had time to gameplan around that? Because that early-season home angle feels strong. YO especially with no preseason for the visitor to get into game shape yet..
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It would be an auto bet for me but losing Vonn Miller and Sutton banged up is keeping me off Denver.

Plus I think that angle is baked into the line this week.

 
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facook said:
Sutton banged up
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Yeah, and the rookie too. So basically their #1 and #2 WR, I think. Was thinking they might've had time to plan, or make other plans, so to speak. Titans aren't 100% themselves on defense either. Definitely deserves a look. But now that you mention that stuff probably not multi-unit like I was going to do, gnome sayin'

Yo ETA yeah I'm taking the +3. Just 'cause I love dogs and I think the injuries thing is sticking out waaaaaay more in the public eye than a "Broncos early season home angle" ever possibly could..

 
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I may have missed something, but the TEN/DEN line moved 3+ points, across zero, because of an injury to a defensive lineman. He's awesome, still seems like a lot. I've also seen a lot of teams pull together and patch up that hole for the first week, and then reality sets in. Might also make them a fade next week at Pittsburgh.

TEN has recent history of slow starts, as does Derrick Henry.  I dunno. It doesn't bug me that I'm fading two consensus plays. I'm told consensus picks were 42-39-3 last year.

 
kevzilla said:
I may have missed something, but the TEN/DEN line moved 3+ points, across zero, because of an injury to a defensive lineman. He's awesome, still seems like a lot. I've also seen a lot of teams pull together and patch up that hole for the first week, and then reality sets in. Might also make them a fade next week at Pittsburgh.

TEN has recent history of slow starts, as does Derrick Henry.  I dunno. It doesn't bug me that I'm fading two consensus plays. I'm told consensus picks were 42-39-3 last year.
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Long term, I don't think you will go wrong fading consensus.  I was sincere in liking your contrarianism.

 
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