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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter The Ref
- Start date
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
So being in Colorado, this was my first shot at betting football---I threw money around like a drunken sailor. I bet on everything but the color of Tom Brady's underwear. At the end of the day, I am up $67, but that includes the Rams +34 offer, so bottom-feeder power activated!!!!!
I am believing this is about 20% knowledge and 80% balls.
I am believing this is about 20% knowledge and 80% balls.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
facook
Footballguy
More write-ups from my guy:
Texas State -2.5 -115
Favorite play this week.
Continued ULM fades. McBride in or out? Doesn’t matter to me. This Texas State offense is real. They have a plethora of playmakers at WR and RB. While neither SMU or UTSA are great on defense, this should be a step down from what they’ve been facing. ULM now has to switch to preparing for some completely different than their last game. Viator is optimistic they might get some players back that sat out last game, but it doesn’t matter. The defense was better than expected vs Army, but is still one of the worst in the country. Texas State should have no trouble putting up points.
Over 1/3 of ULM’s passing yards came on 1 long bomb vs Army. At times they showed glimpses of competence, but they have a long road ahead. They’re a fade for me losing Evans at QB early in this season.
Texas State’s defense gets some relief against this weaker ULM offense as well! They have been fairly impressive in 3 of their 4 halves played thus far. Pretty sure Texas State had no clue what UTSA would look like under their new HC and they showed it in the 1h. They made adjustments at half time though and looked much better in the 2h. In the 2h, they gave up only 143 yards on 28 plays (5.1 YPP) and 102 of those yards came on 2 plays. On the other 26 plays of the 2h, they gave up just 1.65 YPP. They did give up 17 pts in the 2h, but 7 of those came off a tipped pass from the WR leading to a pick 6, and the other 10 came off those 2 big plays. They forced three 3 and outs, one 4 play and out. Not bad for 4 of their 6 defensive possessions.
Also this ULM punt team is brutal. Army almost blocked every single punt (they got at least 1). They averaged just 30 yards per punt on the day. They also finished 120th in Punt Efficiency last year, while Texas State finished 33rd in Punt Return Efficiency. Could be problematic again vs this good Texas State return team, who already ran 1 back last game, and had another 42 yard return called back on a block in the back. On the other hand, Texas State’s new Aussie punter is legit. He averaged 43.6 on 7 boots last game out.
The Bobcats get their first win of the season and do so by double digits. Max it out.
Texas State -2.5 -115
Favorite play this week.
Continued ULM fades. McBride in or out? Doesn’t matter to me. This Texas State offense is real. They have a plethora of playmakers at WR and RB. While neither SMU or UTSA are great on defense, this should be a step down from what they’ve been facing. ULM now has to switch to preparing for some completely different than their last game. Viator is optimistic they might get some players back that sat out last game, but it doesn’t matter. The defense was better than expected vs Army, but is still one of the worst in the country. Texas State should have no trouble putting up points.
Over 1/3 of ULM’s passing yards came on 1 long bomb vs Army. At times they showed glimpses of competence, but they have a long road ahead. They’re a fade for me losing Evans at QB early in this season.
Texas State’s defense gets some relief against this weaker ULM offense as well! They have been fairly impressive in 3 of their 4 halves played thus far. Pretty sure Texas State had no clue what UTSA would look like under their new HC and they showed it in the 1h. They made adjustments at half time though and looked much better in the 2h. In the 2h, they gave up only 143 yards on 28 plays (5.1 YPP) and 102 of those yards came on 2 plays. On the other 26 plays of the 2h, they gave up just 1.65 YPP. They did give up 17 pts in the 2h, but 7 of those came off a tipped pass from the WR leading to a pick 6, and the other 10 came off those 2 big plays. They forced three 3 and outs, one 4 play and out. Not bad for 4 of their 6 defensive possessions.
Also this ULM punt team is brutal. Army almost blocked every single punt (they got at least 1). They averaged just 30 yards per punt on the day. They also finished 120th in Punt Efficiency last year, while Texas State finished 33rd in Punt Return Efficiency. Could be problematic again vs this good Texas State return team, who already ran 1 back last game, and had another 42 yard return called back on a block in the back. On the other hand, Texas State’s new Aussie punter is legit. He averaged 43.6 on 7 boots last game out.
The Bobcats get their first win of the season and do so by double digits. Max it out.
facook
Footballguy
Georgia Tech +7.5 -115/+7
I’m looking to fade UCF when they step up against athletes, especially physical ones. The toughest 2 teams they faced last year were @ Cincinnati and @ Pitt and they lost both game SU as -3.5 and -9 favorites. GT fits the bill as they’re athletic as hell, and they’ll punch you in the mouth.
UCF had 10 players opt out. While only 2 of those players are starters, this goes back to my thoughts on the mentality of these players and teams. If a player is a 1st round pick for the draft, I totally understand the decision to opt out. Otherwise, is a little flu more dangerous than playing football? Can you get the flu, even if you don’t play football? You aren’t seeing many players opting out from teams that are physical, tough, and have good coaching staffs. Those kids are excited to play. Most of the opt outs are coming from what I would call “soft” teams.
On the road LY, UCF went 3-3 with 4 games played within 3 points. They rolled FAU and Temple.
48-14 W @ FAU (Week 2 and FAU defense had yet to get it’s groove under new DC and lost a ton of production from prior year)
34-35 L @ Pitt
24-27 L @ Cincinnati
63-21 W @ Temple
31-34 L @ Tulsa
34-31 W @ Tulane
GT looked forreal vs FSU. I trust my eyes and feel, so I don’t think I’m over reacting based on 1 performance. Collins has done a wonderful job in such a short time in transitioning them from the option. Never would have imagined it’d happen this fast. I was really impressed with their athleticism. This is a top 25 team in 1-2 years.
Sims was a baller in the opener. This new QB makes all the difference and takes this weak offense to the next level. He was one of the most impressive players I saw last week. They dominated FSU and got whatever they wanted. They had a number of drives in FSU territory where they scored no points, due to missed fgs, and freshman mistakes from the QB. I was impressed by this large and athletic WR unit as well. UCF’s defense is off it’s best performance in many years, but I think they are fairly overrated.
GT returns 94% of their production from LY on defense and they looked fairly solid in the opener. A couple of key guys are beat up and I’m not sure on their status. With or without them, they should be fine. They were rotating tons of guys to keep up with FSU quick tempo. I think they can match up with this UCF offense fairly well.
I don’t see a talent difference between these 2 teams. While UCF’s offense has churned out consistency, they face a tough task here. GT’s offense should be able to move it on UCF as well. The edge between each offense vs the opposing defense is negligible imo. One negative, if this game goes to the wire, is that GT had 2 FGs blocked, and an XP blocked as well. This will be an area for them to clean up this week, according to Collins.
GT should continue their momentum into this one, while UCF will be playing their first game. Collins is familiar with UCF having faced them at Temple. I remember suffering a bad beat on Temple +10.5 at home VS UCF in 2018. He has better athletes to play with this time around.
Along with Miami/Ville, this should be one of the better games of the week.
The Jackets take this to the wire and get the SU win.
I’m looking to fade UCF when they step up against athletes, especially physical ones. The toughest 2 teams they faced last year were @ Cincinnati and @ Pitt and they lost both game SU as -3.5 and -9 favorites. GT fits the bill as they’re athletic as hell, and they’ll punch you in the mouth.
UCF had 10 players opt out. While only 2 of those players are starters, this goes back to my thoughts on the mentality of these players and teams. If a player is a 1st round pick for the draft, I totally understand the decision to opt out. Otherwise, is a little flu more dangerous than playing football? Can you get the flu, even if you don’t play football? You aren’t seeing many players opting out from teams that are physical, tough, and have good coaching staffs. Those kids are excited to play. Most of the opt outs are coming from what I would call “soft” teams.
On the road LY, UCF went 3-3 with 4 games played within 3 points. They rolled FAU and Temple.
48-14 W @ FAU (Week 2 and FAU defense had yet to get it’s groove under new DC and lost a ton of production from prior year)
34-35 L @ Pitt
24-27 L @ Cincinnati
63-21 W @ Temple
31-34 L @ Tulsa
34-31 W @ Tulane
GT looked forreal vs FSU. I trust my eyes and feel, so I don’t think I’m over reacting based on 1 performance. Collins has done a wonderful job in such a short time in transitioning them from the option. Never would have imagined it’d happen this fast. I was really impressed with their athleticism. This is a top 25 team in 1-2 years.
Sims was a baller in the opener. This new QB makes all the difference and takes this weak offense to the next level. He was one of the most impressive players I saw last week. They dominated FSU and got whatever they wanted. They had a number of drives in FSU territory where they scored no points, due to missed fgs, and freshman mistakes from the QB. I was impressed by this large and athletic WR unit as well. UCF’s defense is off it’s best performance in many years, but I think they are fairly overrated.
GT returns 94% of their production from LY on defense and they looked fairly solid in the opener. A couple of key guys are beat up and I’m not sure on their status. With or without them, they should be fine. They were rotating tons of guys to keep up with FSU quick tempo. I think they can match up with this UCF offense fairly well.
I don’t see a talent difference between these 2 teams. While UCF’s offense has churned out consistency, they face a tough task here. GT’s offense should be able to move it on UCF as well. The edge between each offense vs the opposing defense is negligible imo. One negative, if this game goes to the wire, is that GT had 2 FGs blocked, and an XP blocked as well. This will be an area for them to clean up this week, according to Collins.
GT should continue their momentum into this one, while UCF will be playing their first game. Collins is familiar with UCF having faced them at Temple. I remember suffering a bad beat on Temple +10.5 at home VS UCF in 2018. He has better athletes to play with this time around.
Along with Miami/Ville, this should be one of the better games of the week.
The Jackets take this to the wire and get the SU win.
facook
Footballguy
Georgia State +17
Kinda digging this spot. ULL coming off their big 12 win and are now ranked in the top 25!!! While they deserve the credit for the win, I wasn’t that impressed. I was more unimpressed with Iowa State’s offense. Not sure how you can have all that talent and look that bad.
ULL is down their top 4 WR from LY, so I’m seeing a drop off on their offense from LY. They should be even more run heavy this year. Despite their 31 points, they couldn’t do much offensively vs Iowa State. They benefited from a KR TD, punt return TD, and got over 1/2 of their passing yards on the 1 play 78 yard bomb. Subtract that play and they had just 3.52 YPP for the game. Georgia State’s defense returns 83% of their production from LY, minus the loss of Stone. They’ve added some high quality transfers on this side of the ball though. Georgia State is no Iowa State on defense, so ULL should be able to move it some, but they’ll be decent enough to get some stops.
Georgia State’s offense returns all the major pieces, except Ellington at QB. He played the last 4.5 games on a torn ACL. They were actually 53rd in offensive S&P under their first year OC when he tore his ACL and fell to 63rd by years end. This OC did a fantastic job in year 1. They have some excellent skill players already there, so hoping they can just plug this new QB in and get going. He redshirted last year and looks to fit the mold of this system. They should find success on an average ULL defense.
ULL comes out with a hang over and Georgia State keeps it within 2 TD’s.
Kinda digging this spot. ULL coming off their big 12 win and are now ranked in the top 25!!! While they deserve the credit for the win, I wasn’t that impressed. I was more unimpressed with Iowa State’s offense. Not sure how you can have all that talent and look that bad.
ULL is down their top 4 WR from LY, so I’m seeing a drop off on their offense from LY. They should be even more run heavy this year. Despite their 31 points, they couldn’t do much offensively vs Iowa State. They benefited from a KR TD, punt return TD, and got over 1/2 of their passing yards on the 1 play 78 yard bomb. Subtract that play and they had just 3.52 YPP for the game. Georgia State’s defense returns 83% of their production from LY, minus the loss of Stone. They’ve added some high quality transfers on this side of the ball though. Georgia State is no Iowa State on defense, so ULL should be able to move it some, but they’ll be decent enough to get some stops.
Georgia State’s offense returns all the major pieces, except Ellington at QB. He played the last 4.5 games on a torn ACL. They were actually 53rd in offensive S&P under their first year OC when he tore his ACL and fell to 63rd by years end. This OC did a fantastic job in year 1. They have some excellent skill players already there, so hoping they can just plug this new QB in and get going. He redshirted last year and looks to fit the mold of this system. They should find success on an average ULL defense.
ULL comes out with a hang over and Georgia State keeps it within 2 TD’s.
facook
Footballguy
Troy -3 -120
Two programs trending in different directions.
While Neal was at Troy, they had excellent defenses, but couldn’t put an offense together. Then comes in Lindsey last year and improves the offense, but the defense fell off a CLIFF. Things should be more balanced out this year. Troy’s offense brings back all the skill players for the new QB. The OL has a few pieces to replace as well. This offense feels the same as Georgia State. They’re returning some exciting skill players and just need to plug in a QB.
On defense, the Trojans are returning basically all of their production and add some solid transfers who will be starting. This is year 2 of their system and there’s lots of room for upside here from where they’re being projected. I don’t have the quote handy, but to paraphrase Lindsey, “The defense is flying around and we’re light years ahead of where we were last year”.
I’m neutral to bullish on Troy depending on how this Qb looks. If he’s decent and the defense is improved as the coaches have stated, there’s quite a bit of upside.
While Troy has an exciting and young new coach, MTSU has an old coach who I believe is going through the motions and players mirror that. While watching the MTSU/Army game, it felt like the team was “just there”. There was no energy or passion to be playing football. In Athlon, an opposing coach said, “There’s no juice here. It’s stale. The skill positions are underwhelming.” This is exactly what I saw in that game. The offense is basically O’Hara and that’s it. He got benched vs Army, and for the game, MTSU put up just 3.83 YPP.
On defense, MTSU was brutal last year and are returning a lack of production. It seems like it will be more of the same this year. It should be a decent opponent for Troy’s new QB to get his feet wet against.
I’m neutral to bearish on MTSU.
Taking the team with more upside under a fiery new coach in year 2, laying a short number. Trojans by double digits.
Two programs trending in different directions.
While Neal was at Troy, they had excellent defenses, but couldn’t put an offense together. Then comes in Lindsey last year and improves the offense, but the defense fell off a CLIFF. Things should be more balanced out this year. Troy’s offense brings back all the skill players for the new QB. The OL has a few pieces to replace as well. This offense feels the same as Georgia State. They’re returning some exciting skill players and just need to plug in a QB.
On defense, the Trojans are returning basically all of their production and add some solid transfers who will be starting. This is year 2 of their system and there’s lots of room for upside here from where they’re being projected. I don’t have the quote handy, but to paraphrase Lindsey, “The defense is flying around and we’re light years ahead of where we were last year”.
I’m neutral to bullish on Troy depending on how this Qb looks. If he’s decent and the defense is improved as the coaches have stated, there’s quite a bit of upside.
While Troy has an exciting and young new coach, MTSU has an old coach who I believe is going through the motions and players mirror that. While watching the MTSU/Army game, it felt like the team was “just there”. There was no energy or passion to be playing football. In Athlon, an opposing coach said, “There’s no juice here. It’s stale. The skill positions are underwhelming.” This is exactly what I saw in that game. The offense is basically O’Hara and that’s it. He got benched vs Army, and for the game, MTSU put up just 3.83 YPP.
On defense, MTSU was brutal last year and are returning a lack of production. It seems like it will be more of the same this year. It should be a decent opponent for Troy’s new QB to get his feet wet against.
I’m neutral to bearish on MTSU.
Taking the team with more upside under a fiery new coach in year 2, laying a short number. Trojans by double digits.
facook
Footballguy
The Ref
Footballguy
Not sure who this guy is @facook but I like the cut of his jib.
only thing is all these lines are stale and on the other side of the key number posted with the exception of Tech, which I just bet.
Peronaly I think this weeks NCAA card looks awful from a betting perspective. Other than GT the only other bet I could find was Marshall +3.5.
only thing is all these lines are stale and on the other side of the key number posted with the exception of Tech, which I just bet.
Peronaly I think this weeks NCAA card looks awful from a betting perspective. Other than GT the only other bet I could find was Marshall +3.5.
facook
Footballguy
He's just my guy.
I got all of those number 90 minutes ago. That's how fast they moved. Also I think there's still some value even if they move a bit, and value just reading in how he breaks down a game. FWIW.
And I'll try to relay faster when he posts. Had to get the bets in for myself first and then rush off to work this am.
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ChainsawU
Footballguy
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Ebron 1st TD +1200
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
Could use some help on the 4 remaining team totals (will probably pick 2). I prefer to try and go contrarian.
Giants 0 6.5 +135 (haven't seen much of Jones to have enough conviction and no clue on Judge)
Broncos O 7 1/2 +125 (overreaction to the Miller injury begets value, yet that's still a big blow)
Titans U 8 1/2 +125 (they just seem pricey coming off that playoff run)
Steelers 0 9 -165 (far from contrarian and I will not lay that kind of juice but if my life depended on it, this would be my play)
Of course, the Giants (#2) and Denver (#5) are in the top of toughest SOS based on opponents projected win totals. Conversely, the Titans and Steelers have it the other way, facing the #25 and #31 SOS schedules respectively.
Giants 0 6.5 +135 (haven't seen much of Jones to have enough conviction and no clue on Judge)
Broncos O 7 1/2 +125 (overreaction to the Miller injury begets value, yet that's still a big blow)
Titans U 8 1/2 +125 (they just seem pricey coming off that playoff run)
Steelers 0 9 -165 (far from contrarian and I will not lay that kind of juice but if my life depended on it, this would be my play)
Of course, the Giants (#2) and Denver (#5) are in the top of toughest SOS based on opponents projected win totals. Conversely, the Titans and Steelers have it the other way, facing the #25 and #31 SOS schedules respectively.
lumpy19
Footballguy
He posts in the betting talk slack channel as wellHe's just my guy.
I got all of those number 90 minutes ago. That's how fast they moved. Also I think there's still some value even if they move a bit, and value just reading in how he breaks down a game. FWIW.
And I'll try to relay faster when he posts. Had to get the bets in for myself first and then rush off to work this am.
AndrewClark
Footballguy
I should have said Cards ML. I knew it.
I'll be back for week 2 tradition
I'll be back for week 2 tradition
Hoos First
Footballguy
Im going with Phillies -1.5 for some afternoon action.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
too late for 1st game.
grabbed this 2nd game
Ebronover25.5receiving
Shepardover4receptions
jonesunder245.5passing
jujuunder6.5receptions
ebronover2.5receptions
mcdonaldunder16.5receiving
barkleyunder109.5rr
grabbed this 2nd game
Ebronover25.5receiving
Shepardover4receptions
jonesunder245.5passing
jujuunder6.5receptions
ebronover2.5receptions
mcdonaldunder16.5receiving
barkleyunder109.5rr
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
whoops that is 1st game
davisunder3.5receptions
brownunder4.5receptions
lockunder227.5passing
smithunder3receptions
lindsayover34.5rushing
jeudyover40.5receiving
hamiltonunder16.5longest
jon smithunder14.5longest
lindsayunder12.5receiving
hamitlonunder3receptions
jeudy over 3.5 receptions
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
man ebron sure is out there a lot.. That beat writer had a great pulse
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
CR69
Footballguy
Good thinking.
Bet o39.5 on Jeudy and then either him or AJB to score the first TD. It's -150 for o3.5 receptions. I'm waffling...
facook
Footballguy
CR69
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
stupid denver stop ####### it up
facook
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
facook
Footballguy
regularguy
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
regularguy
Footballguy
Whew. And Hamilton got in the box score to make that one a no doubter.
AndrewClark
Footballguy
Pay attention hard to whom every pundit says "sucks" or "looks amazing".
I'm forcing myself to watch ESPN for this science.
I'm forcing myself to watch ESPN for this science.
AndrewClark
Footballguy
Is anyone seeing Dechambeau at better than 20-1 to win the US Open? Either way, that's a good bet. Top 20 Top 10 Top whatever.
Dechambeau
Dechambeau
AndrewClark
Footballguy
Oh good, Mike Greenberg is doing a "winners and losers from week 1" segment.
AndrewClark
Footballguy
If Kyler Murray is around +2500 to win MVP, I'm interested in that greatly.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Isn't this Week 2 over reaction - bet on all the teams that looked poopy against the teams that looked good? I am looking at you Clark - i mean Bender.
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