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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!!


The Ref

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32 minutes ago, the rover said:

Gonzaga won by 38 yesterday while giving 41.   The final was 95-57.   

Due to an odd covid-scheduling thing they play the same team today, and are giving 39, but the total is 168.    Where are the extra 16 points going to come from? 

 

Never say college basketball isn’t a funny game. The first half saw the #1 team in the country suffer its worst half of the season at the hands of the vaunted Northwestern State Demons.

https://www.slipperstillfits.com/2020/12/22/22194576/10-observations-from-gonzagas-win-over-northwestern-state

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51 minutes ago, The Man With No Name said:

Never say college basketball isn’t a funny game. The first half saw the #1 team in the country suffer its worst half of the season at the hands of the vaunted Northwestern State Demons.

https://www.slipperstillfits.com/2020/12/22/22194576/10-observations-from-gonzagas-win-over-northwestern-state

I watched the game.  They were playing their bench players early after going up by 12 right away, and northwestern was fouling the hell out of them.  

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3 hours ago, facook said:

Pretty great as a UCF and over backer to see UCF wr drop the wide open bunny at the 5 yard line that leads to his team completely self destructing from there.  Betting on the mental toughness of teenagers.  It's FAAANtastic.

When you bet the over...

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On 12/20/2020 at 6:51 PM, facook said:

Clemson -7.5

Bama -11 1H

Bama -19.5

Fla/OK over 70

UNC/A & M over 69 (nice)

UCF/BYU over 71.5 Tuesday night because that's the last day of work for me this year and I'm going drink 1/2 gallon of vodka and swear at the Mormons to run it up.

(Narrator: He thought Wed was Christmas eve, and actually had a dentist appt on Wed morning....but still....)

 

5 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

When you bet the over...

Yep.  Get the number, y'all.  Damm I'm shrap.

(BP is going to be slightly elevated at my dentist appt tomorrow.  Hmmm)

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Any recommendations on where I could take my new lady friend for new year's?

 

Eta: we've both have had and beat covid so that really isn't of any concern.

Edited by hooter311
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1 hour ago, hooter311 said:

Any recommendations on where I could take my new lady friend for new year's?

 

Eta: we've both have had and beat covid so that really isn't of any concern.

Look at me - I score even during a pandemic!

The bigger question is what is even open?   Worse comes to worse I hear PoundTown is lovely this time of year!  

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22 hours ago, General Malaise said:

File this under "Boredom is a terrible thing".....

UCF +6

Tulane/Nevada OVER 28 for 1st Half

:bag:

 

I need to go to meetings.

Bah, split the baby.  Didn't watch any of the action; did UCF just not show up?  BYU was like 0-8 in the state of Florida coming into this thing.  Rode them hard early in the year; should have stuck with them.  

Boredom continues to be a terrible thing....

Memphis -8.5
LA Tech +6.5 (NEVER FADE SKIP HOLTZ IN A BOWL)
Under 47 in the New Orleans Bowl (sponsored by bad decisions, good food and floppy bosoms)

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5 hours ago, General Malaise said:

Bah, split the baby.  Didn't watch any of the action; did UCF just not show up?  BYU was like 0-8 in the state of Florida coming into this thing.  Rode them hard early in the year; should have stuck with them.  

Boredom continues to be a terrible thing....

Memphis -8.5
LA Tech +6.5 (NEVER FADE SKIP HOLTZ IN A BOWL)
Under 47 in the New Orleans Bowl (sponsored by bad decisions, good food and floppy bosoms)

That was pretty disappointing.

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9 hours ago, General Malaise said:
Boredom continues to be a terrible thing....

Memphis -8.5
LA Tech +6.5 (NEVER FADE SKIP HOLTZ IN A BOWL)
Under 47 in the New Orleans Bowl (sponsored by bad decisions, good food and floppy bosoms)

Because 2 outta 3 ain’t bad...

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On 12/23/2020 at 12:12 PM, Angry Beavers said:

Look at me - I score even during a pandemic!

The bigger question is what is even open?   Worse comes to worse I hear PoundTown is lovely this time of year!  

Booked the Venetian for Thursday - Sunday.

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1H - Pelicans / Heat O112

The trend is normally to take unders on these Christmas Day games. But if there had ever a trend breaker / paradigm shift it's 2020.

Feels like a setup for some ##### ball where both teams say #### defense and run up and down the court.


One of these teams will have 60 points at halftime and we'd only need 52 from the other for this to push.

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1 hour ago, CFB Sicko said:

1H - Pelicans / Heat O112

The trend is normally to take unders on these Christmas Day games. But if there had ever a trend breaker / paradigm shift it's 2020.

Feels like a setup for some ##### ball where both teams say #### defense and run up and down the court.


One of these teams will have 60 points at halftime and we'd only need 52 from the other for this to push.

Merry Christmas, Em.

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4 hours ago, CFB Sicko said:

1H - Pelicans / Heat O112

The trend is normally to take unders on these Christmas Day games. But if there had ever a trend breaker / paradigm shift it's 2020.

Feels like a setup for some ##### ball where both teams say #### defense and run up and down the court.


One of these teams will have 60 points at halftime and we'd only need 52 from the other for this to push.

Nice call bro. Keep Em coming. 

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Jefferson Over 70.5

Great spot for Jefferson as he should be matched up against Marshon Lattimore who ranks just 97th at the cornerback position this year according to PFF.com. Look for him to potentially grab a big chunk of these yards beating him on a deepball.

Jefferson grew up in St. Rose, Louisiana, just 20 minutes from the Superdome where he starred at Destrehan High School.  And he is on pace to beat the NFL record for receiving yards as a rookie, needing just 132 more yards. This should give Kirk Cousins another reason to pepper him with targets today.

Edited by LOCO
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8 year old got a skateboard and being the cool dad I let him skateboard in the kitchen, skateboard promptly went thru the wall as he was on FaceTime on an iPad with his grandparents and he also dropped the iPad and shattered the screen.

Merry Christmas everyone!

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16 minutes ago, lumpy19 said:

8 year old got a skateboard and being the cool dad I let him skateboard in the kitchen, skateboard promptly went thru the wall as he was on FaceTime on an iPad with his grandparents and he also dropped the iPad and shattered the screen.

Merry Christmas everyone!

Lol please tell me you have video of this.  That’s award winning stuff right there

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21 minutes ago, LOCO said:

Jefferson Over 70.5

Great spot for Jefferson as he should be matched up against Marshon Lattimore who ranks just 97th at the cornerback position this year according to PFF.com. Look for him to potentially grab a big chunk of these yards beating him on a deepball.

Jefferson grew up in St. Rose, Louisiana, just 20 minutes from the Superdome where he starred at Destrehan High School.  And he is on pace to beat the NFL record for receiving yards as a rookie, needing just 132 more yards. This should give Kirk Cousins another reason to pepper him with targets today.

Fell @$$ backwards into him in my dynasty league.  Great rookie wr all year.  Could really use him to have a big day as you're suggesting to pull the "#6 Seed Shocks the World" Super Bowl victory.  Good luck to us! 

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9 minutes ago, Dan Lambskin said:

Lol please tell me you have video of this.  That’s award winning stuff right there

No video but my son exploded in tears not because of the damage but because he was scared of me yelling at him and my wife consoled him by telling him it was all my fault because I let him ride the skateboard in the house.......sooooo this is all my fault 

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Warriors / Bucks O229.5 (buy a point)

The Warriors don't have anybody who can stop Giannis and if they don't double him then he's going to walk into the paint over and over and over, get a few and & 1s, get fouled excessively, etc. If they double him the following guys will be open for a wide open look / chance for isolation:

Holiday, Lopez, Middleton.

 

I can't see how this is anything but a highly efficient outing for the Bucks offense. If Steve Kerr actually wants a chance to pull an upsets, he comes out small and has his boys shooting 3s. The line has dropped all day too, imply money being on the under. "Public money is no money."

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4 minutes ago, lumpy19 said:

No video but my son exploded in tears not because of the damage but because he was scared of me yelling at him and my wife consoled him by telling him it was all my fault because I let him ride the skateboard in the house.......sooooo this is all my fault 

duh

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8 minutes ago, CFB Sicko said:

Warriors / Bucks O229.5 (buy a point)

The Warriors don't have anybody who can stop Giannis and if they don't double him then he's going to walk into the paint over and over and over, get a few and & 1s, get fouled excessively, etc. If they double him the following guys will be open for a wide open look / chance for isolation:

Holiday, Lopez, Middleton.

 

I can't see how this is anything but a highly efficient outing for the Bucks offense. If Steve Kerr actually wants a chance to pull an upsets, he comes out small and has his boys shooting 3s. The line has dropped all day too, imply money being on the under. "Public money is no money."

Do you think you will make out being ahead buying the 1 point for .10 over time?

 

 

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4 minutes ago, The Ref said:

Do you think you will make out being ahead buying the 1 point for .10 over time?

 

 

The half point is to cover the "sports is rigged" angle. Point shaving is a real thing and I don't want to be on a number that everyone else is. If this was a Cavaliers game on a Tuesday afternoon, I'd probably pass. But I liked the over at 232 and I love it 230.5, so why not really get my jollies on line movement in my favor on top of a potential rigged situation.


"Situations are situational." - Pat McAfee

Edited by CFB Sicko
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1 hour ago, CFB Sicko said:

The half point is to cover the "sports is rigged" angle. Point shaving is a real thing and I don't want to be on a number that everyone else is. If this was a Cavaliers game on a Tuesday afternoon, I'd probably pass. But I liked the over at 232 and I love it 230.5, so why not really get my jollies on line movement in my favor on top of a potential rigged situation.


"Situations are situational." - Pat McAfee

If they played this game over and over again how many times would that 1 point matter?

law of averages you are not going to win the bet more than 50% of the time, but let’s assume you are a long term winner and win 60%.  So the 40% you will lose an extra $40 for every ten bets on a $100 per unit basis.

 

 

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59 minutes ago, The Ref said:

If they played this game over and over again how many times would that 1 point matter?

law of averages you are not going to win the bet more than 50% of the time, but let’s assume you are a long term winner and win 60%.  So the 40% you will lose an extra $40 for every ten bets on a $100 per unit basis.

 

 

It's probably a sucker bet. I got my line at -122, technically it was an alt line. I'm sure everyone here has played player props juicier than that. What's that?

"There's no juice when you win." 

I guess it's aiken buying insurance on blackjack. I don't think it's going to wipe me out long-term, probanly negative net but in my experience I'm willing to pay extra in certain situations I feel may be screwy.

 

More applicable in NFL turning a non football number into a football number(-2 or +5 to -3 or +6).

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2 hours ago, CFB Sicko said:

Warriors / Bucks O229.5 (buy a point)

The Warriors don't have anybody who can stop Giannis and if they don't double him then he's going to walk into the paint over and over and over, get a few and & 1s, get fouled excessively, etc. If they double him the following guys will be open for a wide open look / chance for isolation:

Holiday, Lopez, Middleton.

 

I can't see how this is anything but a highly efficient outing for the Bucks offense. If Steve Kerr actually wants a chance to pull an upsets, he comes out small and has his boys shooting 3s. The line has dropped all day too, imply money being on the under. "Public money is no money."

Next?

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4 hours ago, facook said:
5 hours ago, LOCO said:

Jefferson Over 70.5

Great spot for Jefferson as he should be matched up against Marshon Lattimore who ranks just 97th at the cornerback position this year according to PFF.com. Look for him to potentially grab a big chunk of these yards beating him on a deepball.

Jefferson grew up in St. Rose, Louisiana, just 20 minutes from the Superdome where he starred at Destrehan High School.  And he is on pace to beat the NFL record for receiving yards as a rookie, needing just 132 more yards. This should give Kirk Cousins another reason to pepper him with targets today.

Fell @$$ backwards into him in my dynasty league.  Great rookie wr all year.  Could really use him to have a big day as you're suggesting to pull the "#6 Seed Shocks the World" Super Bowl victory.  Good luck to us! 

:cry:  Congrats A & L Dynasty.

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Mavericks / Lakers O226, -130 (buy 1 point)

Almost an identical situation as the Warriors / Bucks game. The line opened at 229.5 (and I liked it then). the line has dropped to O227 so I'm grabbing the the extra point again to bring it to 226. I don't see how this game isn't a track meet. Neither of these teams want to start off 0-2 and both have a chance to "make an impact".

I'm envisioning beautiful sequences and a tremendous amount of 3PM. Both these teams were underwhelming in the season debut and have a lot to prove. Remember how Lebron was acting like he was just "kidding around" in the last game? He can't use that excuse this game and with the Lakers as 5-6 point favorites, we can assume a barrage of 3 point attempts from the Mavericks who were setting records last year.


If you prefer not the buy the point, that's perfectly acceptable but just know that there's A LOT of money on this game. It's King James on Christmas. I just try to protect myself from point shaving as much as possible and this gives me a 3.5 point window from the original line. If Sharps pushed it down from 229.5 with heavy bets, I believe the goal is to squeeze them out or at the least the sharps win but everyone is left holding the bag of #### at 228 to 229.

@facook

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3 hours ago, CFB Sicko said:

Mavericks / Lakers O226, -130 (buy 1 point)

Almost an identical situation as the Warriors / Bucks game. The line opened at 229.5 (and I liked it then). the line has dropped to O227 so I'm grabbing the the extra point again to bring it to 226. I don't see how this game isn't a track meet. Neither of these teams want to start off 0-2 and both have a chance to "make an impact".

I'm envisioning beautiful sequences and a tremendous amount of 3PM. Both these teams were underwhelming in the season debut and have a lot to prove. Remember how Lebron was acting like he was just "kidding around" in the last game? He can't use that excuse this game and with the Lakers as 5-6 point favorites, we can assume a barrage of 3 point attempts from the Mavericks who were setting records last year.


If you prefer not the buy the point, that's perfectly acceptable but just know that there's A LOT of money on this game. It's King James on Christmas. I just try to protect myself from point shaving as much as possible and this gives me a 3.5 point window from the original line. If Sharps pushed it down from 229.5 with heavy bets, I believe the goal is to squeeze them out or at the least the sharps win but everyone is left holding the bag of #### at 228 to 229.

@facook

IT'S WHAT YOU DO!

Welcome back

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