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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!!


The Ref

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On 12/19/2020 at 11:03 AM, got_nugs said:

So my brother has been trying to get hitched for a year now...they finally decided to have a 'small' ceremony this weekend....my mom just told me they're expecting 135 ####### people.  If something happens, I bequeath my likes to @John Bender for the Ronlad Silks facebook account.

wtf man.

Lots of points in the OU/ISU game plz

The Baylor chick?

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On 12/25/2020 at 1:15 PM, lumpy19 said:

he was scared of me yelling at him

Man one of the best things ever was when I kicked a hole in some sheetrock, just frustrated with life as an 8-year-old, and the old man got home later and patched/painted the hole without ripping me a new one. I don't know why I didn't get in trouble, but every time I walked past it I always had that trauma-free thought of, "Damn. I'm still okay. Dad isn't such a bad guy, he had my back that day, and I'm gonna root for that mofo next time I have a chance."

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1H - Pacers / Bulls U114 (8:00PM ET)

Generally speaking, I think this line is way too high. I'm also a big sports psychology (human behavior) kind of guy and this is the DAY AFTER Christmas. Many of these guys will have a Holiday hangover and won't feel like "balling out". I won't sure if that will be someone on the first unit or second unit, but I don't think they're interested in running up and down the court a million times after getting crunk last night.

The Pacers have the ability to be a Top 10 defense when they want to be. But I am not ruling out the fact that many of them drove over from Indianapolis or flew in from wherever they were yesterday and could be experienced from travel related disturbances. I thought this line would be about 112 so assuming all the factors listed AND that this line gives 2 points in my favor, I'm willing to give it the good old college try.

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42 minutes ago, CFB Sicko said:

Q1 - Suns / Kings U56

To be frank, I like the full game under more than the Q1 but I'm full of piss and vinegar after that last bad loss.

Ready to go to bed or live to go ahead  on the day on a 2H bet.

And it ####### pushes at exactly 56. Whatever, I'm over it. Not in the mood to chase.
 

3-0 yesterday

0-1-1 today

 

 

Peace out, good luck on your football bets tomorrow. ☮️

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Very thankful to Gaskin for hitting all of my props and would have hit all of my prop parlays if Gruden hadn’t forgotten that he had Josh Jacobs on his team. Huge swing to bring me back to even for the day lol. 
 

Going heavy on prop overs in the Chiefs/Falcons game. Gambling on Tyreek being healthy than advertised. Straight up I like Chicago -8, Tennessee ML and Eagles -3. 

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I'd like to dedicate these picks to my boy @swirvenirvin who taught me everything I know about picking player props.

Bridgewater O22.5 completions, EVEN
Bridgewater O247.5 passing yards, -105
Curtis Samuel U3.5 receptions, +120Z
Dwayne Haskins U227.5 passing yards
Logan Thomas U4.5, +130

Goff O25.5 completions, -130
Cooper Kupp U64.5 receiving, -105
Tyler Higbee U3.5, -150
Russell Wilson U28.5 rush, -130
Chris Carson O54.5, -110
Tyler Lockett O5.5, +130

Jalen Hurts O237.5, EVEN
Hurts U61.5, -105
Miles Sanders U95.5 rush / receiving, -115
Jalen Reagor U37.5, -105
Andy Dalton O21.5 completions, EVEN
Ezekiel Elliot O48.5, -125
CeeDee Lamb U4.5 receptions, -110


Miss you guys. It's a ghost town in here. I hope all is well and you've moved onto a different place other than being this despondent about gambling. This thread and gambling used to be all of our favorite past time. I know that we've all slowly aged into the "next" bracket. I'm going to be 30 years old next year and I know what that says about my mentors.

God bless, I love you. ❤️

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3 hours ago, CFB Sicko said:

I'd like to dedicate these picks to my boy @swirvenirvin who taught me everything I know about picking player props.

Bridgewater O22.5 completions, EVEN
Bridgewater O247.5 passing yards, -105
Curtis Samuel U3.5 receptions, +120Z
Dwayne Haskins U227.5 passing yards
Logan Thomas U4.5, +130

Goff O25.5 completions, -130
Cooper Kupp U64.5 receiving, -105
Tyler Higbee U3.5, -150
Russell Wilson U28.5 rush, -130
Chris Carson O54.5, -110
Tyler Lockett O5.5, +130

Jalen Hurts O237.5, EVEN
Hurts U61.5, -105
Miles Sanders U95.5 rush / receiving, -115
Jalen Reagor U37.5, -105
Andy Dalton O21.5 completions, EVEN
Ezekiel Elliot O48.5, -125
CeeDee Lamb U4.5 receptions, -110


Miss you guys. It's a ghost town in here. I hope all is well and you've moved onto a different place other than being this despondent about gambling. This thread and gambling used to be all of our favorite past time. I know that we've all slowly aged into the "next" bracket. I'm going to be 30 years old next year and I know what that says about my mentors.

God bless, I love you. ❤️

I was on mike davis unders and rodney smith overs

 

locket under receptions and malcomb brown overs

 

got my ### handed to me in dallas..

 

faded zeke, and philly receiving and hrts pass comp

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3 hours ago, CFB Sicko said:

I'd like to dedicate these picks to my boy @swirvenirvin who taught me everything I know about picking player props.

Bridgewater O22.5 completions, EVEN [L]
Bridgewater O247.5 passing yards, -105 [L]
Curtis Samuel U3.5 receptions, +120 [L]
Dwayne Haskins U227.5 passing yards [W]
Logan Thomas U4.5, +130 [L]

Goff O25.5 completions, -130 [L]
Cooper Kupp U64.5 receiving, -105 [L]
Tyler Higbee U3.5, -150 [W]
Russell Wilson U28.5 rush, -130 [W]
Chris Carson O54.5, -110 [W]
Tyler Lockett O5.5, +130 [L]

Jalen Hurts O237.5, EVEN [W]
Hurts U61.5, -105 [L]
Miles Sanders U95.5 rush / receiving, -115 [W]
Jalen Reagor U37.5, -105 [W]
Andy Dalton O21.5 completions, EVEN [W]
Ezekiel Elliot O48.5, -125 [W]
CeeDee Lamb U4.5 receptions, -110 [W]


Miss you guys. It's a ghost town in here. I hope all is well and you've moved onto a different place other than being this despondent about gambling. This thread and gambling used to be all of our favorite past time. I know that we've all slowly aged into the "next" bracket. I'm going to be 30 years old next year and I know what that says about my mentors.

God bless, I love you. ❤️

 

10-8 (55.55%)

A few dumb beats and this could have been a (61% to 66%) type card, but I have no shame in going 55%. Hurts boned me on his under the last drive of the game and same thing with Cooper Kupp's receiving under which lost by 2 yards. I'll post the Packers here in a minute or so after I see where I'm at with everything being graded.

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3 hours ago, CFB Sicko said:

Miss you guys. It's a ghost town in here. I hope all is well and you've moved onto a different place other than being this despondent about gambling. This thread and gambling used to be all of our favorite past time. I know that we've all slowly aged into the "next" bracket. I'm going to be 30 years old next year and I know what that says about my mentors.


God bless, I love you. ❤️

Definitely a shell of its former shelf. Hard to say why given that the games carry on like always (other than some Covid delays/disruptions) and legalization continues to expand into more states, fwiw.  Still plenty of $$$$ to be made. 

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Tannehil O21.5 completions, -120
Tannehil U1.5 passing TD, +120
Tannehil longest completion U37.5, -110
Derrick Henry U114.5 rushing, +120
AJ Brown U4.5, -110
Corey Davis U65.5 rec, -125

Aaron Rodgers O301.5, +115
Aaron Jones U77.5, -110
Davante Adams U95.5, EVEN
Valdes-Scatling O32.5, -110

 

Snow game in Green Bay. Legacy game for Aaron Rodgers who has a great chance to cement his claim for MVP by throwing for over 300 yards in the snow. I don't think any one back is going to excel, the gameplan for both coaches is going to be to stop the run and let either QB beat us in the snow. If the QB isn't making a mistake, a receiver is dropping a pass, right?

Feels like the game will be decided on the final drive and maybe even go to OT. Most bullish on the props posted in bold.

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Suns / Kings O226, -110

Super weird to see two teams playing on a B2B against each other. Maybe it's common, but I've never seen it before. It's not even like they traveled from Sacramento to Phoenix overnight. They're literally playing the same lineups, in the same stadium, for the same stakes. If Phoenix ML wasn't so chalky, I would advise that.

Just feels like one of these teams is going for 120 tonight which leaves 106 to the other team for a push. There's something weird going on here and the lazy person would say "last night's game went under, so this one should too".

Edited by CFB Sicko
Game starts at 9:05PM ET.
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"What's wrong with the FFAWT?"  We're all busier than ever, less time to degen, and even when we have the time no one enjoys posting losers.  After posting 3 or 4 in a row, we all stop posting for a while.

Tailing you on Phoenix over Em.  I'd agree, especially because Suns first two games have been almost exact same low scores, that the easy play is under.  That would be my instinct.  And I suck, so tailing.

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3 hours ago, CFB Sicko said:

Tannehil O21.5 completions, -120
Tannehil U1.5 passing TD, +120
Tannehil longest completion U37.5, -110
Derrick Henry U114.5 rushing, +120
AJ Brown U4.5, -110
Corey Davis U65.5 rec, -125

Aaron Rodgers O301.5, +115
Aaron Jones U77.5, -110
Davante Adams U95.5, EVEN
Valdes-Scatling O32.5, -110

 

Snow game in Green Bay. Legacy game for Aaron Rodgers who has a great chance to cement his claim for MVP by throwing for over 300 yards in the snow. I don't think any one back is going to excel, the gameplan for both coaches is going to be to stop the run and let either QB beat us in the snow. If the QB isn't making a mistake, a receiver is dropping a pass, right?

Feels like the game will be decided on the final drive and maybe even go to OT. Most bullish on the props posted in bold.

Tannehil O21.5 completions, -120 [L]
Tannehil U1.5 passing TD, +120 [W]
Tannehil longest completion U37.5, -110 [W]
Derrick Henry U114.5 rushing, +120 [W]
AJ Brown U4.5, -110: [W]
Corey Davis U65.5 rec, -125 [W]

Aaron Rodgers O301.5, +115 [L]
Aaron Jones U77.5, -110 [L]
Davante Adams U95.5, EVEN [L]
Valdes-Scatling O32.5, -110 [L]

 

5-5 (50%)

Complete waste of time. Idiot referees missed Aaron Jones stepping out of bounds on a 59 yard run that killed his under and the Titans were too stupid to challenge it. Should have gone 6-4 (60%). But sometimes you just get ####ed.

Edited by CFB Sicko
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7 hours ago, CFB Sicko said:

we've all slowly aged into the "next" bracket. I'm going to be 30 years old next year and I know what that says about my mentors. God bless, I love you. ❤️

I love you too. Yo I recognize your unique affinity to brackets. And aging slowly. But even so, you're still painting with a broad brush. Man, I was hoping for this one day...Being able to ask after a couple years had gone by. So check it out.

I'm legit interested in hearing about that stuff. Your stuff, though. About how you've progressed and how far you've come - what you've accomplished and learned since the nights of blind, tooth-extracting, maternal-lawsuit-inducing, cheapshot punches to the face in bars. And then days of provoking your adult, grown-man dad, being chased around the living room trying to evade him. What happened to those days. Do you ever sit back and think about how far you've made it.

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1 hour ago, ChainsawU said:

I love you too. Yo I recognize your unique affinity to brackets. And aging slowly. But even so, you're still painting with a broad brush. Man, I was hoping for this one day...Being able to ask after a couple years had gone by. So check it out.

I'm legit interested in hearing about that stuff. Your stuff, though. About how you've progressed and how far you've come - what you've accomplished and learned since the nights of blind, tooth-extracting, maternal-lawsuit-inducing, cheapshot punches to the face in bars. And then days of provoking your adult, grown-man dad, being chased around the living room trying to evade him. What happened to those days. Do you ever sit back and think about how far you've made it.

You know, it's interesting that you mention this. Everything in life moves so gradually that the changes in realtime are indecipherable. I finally graduated college with a Bachelors in Accounting back in May of 2019, found a job at a privately owned accounting firm, and moved out of my parents house into a condo in Cocoa Beach. I have grown more in the past 1.5 years than I have in the past 10.

Life is just different when you're officially "on your own" and the relationship with my parents has changed drastically too. The biggest thing I've noticed is how difficult the startup process is. We grow up in our parents' homes and everything is already set in place. I had to buy my own furniture, my own food, pay the electricity, etc. It's a pain in the ### at first and it really humbled me to realize what "little" I had actually accomplished. I spent dozens of hours bickering with grown men on this website who actually had accomplished something in their life.

 

I regret how much time I wasted on stupid people and stupid things. I know it's all part of the journey, but I can't help but think of the tens of thousands of dollars I've spent on drugs, booze, and gambling that I have nothing to show for it. I look at my mother and I don't see a mother anymore. I see a grandmother. I look at my father and I don't see a father anymore. I see a grandfather. It makes me cry when I think about the fact I may only have another 20-30 years with both of them. It's that kind of thinking that keeps me up at night. I've learned to appreciate the moment more than ever. Everything moves so slowly but the days fly by and our hearts get closer and closer to their final beat.

 

I am proud of how far I have made it. I may not have a fully furnished condo or drive the fancy sports car that's going to get me laid, but the same progression of time that is sure to seal my fate is the same progression of time that is going to lead me to all the things that I desire. But I'm most proud of how much I have matured. I treat people a lot better than I once did. I don't argue. I don't always listen as much as I should. But instead of getting into a petty pissing contest with somebody I know is wrong, I say nothing. I don't desire validation and more specifically in my case to spite others who have done me wrong. I simply wish to withdraw myself from people and things that might hurt me.

 

I have been focusing on developing a stoic / father like mentality. This life isn't just about me anymore. My loving parents dedicated 27 years of their life making sure I had all my basic needs and some. I've had the easy street. I am ready to take the wheel and provide for others. Life's a scary place, man. My adolescence is far in the rearview mirror now and there are a whole gang of challenges that await me going forward. I realized that being an overgrown kid forever is a waste of a life. Picking fights with people on the internet is a shallow existence and being deliberately obtuse is a great way to not be taken seriously.

 

As far as material details go:

1.) I am currently pursuing my CPA license.
2.) I am working as a Tax Advisor for Intuit (Turbo Tax) this upcoming season and plan to jam in as much OT as humanly possible.
3.) I will be filing bankruptcy sooner than later to alleviate the financial burden of charging credit cards to pay for gambling habits in my early 20s.

 

It's funny to think if I had a chance to talk to the version of myself from 5 years ago, he'd argue that:

1.) Doubling down on every bet is a valid gambling strategy.
2.) It's okay to tell people on the internet that "you hoped they died" if they hurt your feelings.
3.) Being popular and liked by many people is more important than being respected by the right people.


The human experience, man. It's a ####### wild one.

Edited by CFB Sicko
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Grinding every day is a hell of a thing huh man. Now you know first hand what all those rap lyrics are about. I bet music does indeed sound better and food likely tastes better as well, provided you're content. Don't let anyone ever try to say you got a late start. Your words are crisp and confident, and it sounds like you've aligned yourself with nature's flow.

Yo part of why those grown men bicker with you may be due to they themselves having to start over from scratch. Trust me this startup process you talk about doesn't typically happen only once in a man's life. Get used to doing it because it's coming around again one of these days. Get used to the fact that you're going to find yourself losing things too. That includes your parents. Hopefully that comes further down the line, and you probably added some years to their life by getting out of there. Eventually you'll continue to grow, they'll regress, and you'll end up swapping roles with them, especially once you begin to pass them up psychologically and spiritually - and you will. You'll get to a position where you'll shed old ideas and develop new views on life itself and why we're even here in the first place. As long as you keep your actions purified and stay aligned with natural processes there is nothing any negative person can give you that has value. How are you doing being on your own. What's that situation like.

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4 hours ago, ChainsawU said:

Grinding every day is a hell of a thing huh man. Now you know first hand what all those rap lyrics are about. I bet music does indeed sound better and food likely tastes better as well, provided you're content. Don't let anyone ever try to say you got a late start. Your words are crisp and confident, and it sounds like you've aligned yourself with nature's flow.

Yo part of why those grown men bicker with you may be due to they themselves having to start over from scratch. Trust me this startup process you talk about doesn't typically happen only once in a man's life. Get used to doing it because it's coming around again one of these days. Get used to the fact that you're going to find yourself losing things too. That includes your parents. Hopefully that comes further down the line, and you probably added some years to their life by getting out of there. Eventually you'll continue to grow, they'll regress, and you'll end up swapping roles with them, especially once you begin to pass them up psychologically and spiritually - and you will. You'll get to a position where you'll shed old ideas and develop new views on life itself and why we're even here in the first place. As long as you keep your actions purified and stay aligned with natural processes there is nothing any negative person can give you that has value. How are you doing being on your own. What's that situation like.

I don't love being on my own if I'm being completely honest. It's nice that I'm never bumping elbows with anybody and that every decision that is made is in my own self-interest. But I am dying for companionship. I don't have much in the field of friends or romantic partners. I am very much on an island and now that I will be working from home with Intuit, that island got even more lonelier.

It's interesting you bring this up, because it does tie back into living with my parents. Back when I was living at home, I would wakeup every morning in this strange emotional state (somewhat somber) asking myself the same questions:

Why am I still living with my parents?
What do I have to do to get out of here?
Will I miss my family once I'm gone? What does the future look like? Where will I work? What happens when everybody is gone?



I have recently found myself waking up in that SAME emotional state but with different questions running through my head:

Why am I still alone?
What do I have to do to find somebody?
Will I be alone forever?
What does the person I want to be with look like? How does she act? Where do I find her? Will I know who she is when I meet her?


My focus has been on self-improvement, because obviously the world is a very competitive place and you need to have value in order to reciprocate with a partner. The girl I liked at the gym gave me her phone number a few months ago and I texted her once and threw it away. I bumped into her at a later date and the ship had already sailed. I've talked on-again, off-again with a woman I met at a wedding a few years back but she's a good 7-8 years older than me and has gone as far as to ask me out on a date. We both are deep in our faith of Jesus Christ and I believe there is a connection there: but she's got an 8 year old daughter, her expectations being 36 - 37 are much more than I can offer with my late start, and I don't even know what her interest is in having more kids (which is a must for me). I want a family. I want to complete the cycle so that someone else may experience the beautiful gift of life as it was given to me.

I don't have all the answers but I have been doing my best to remove distractions. Facebook and gambling are big ones. I'm the admin of a Facebook gambling groupchat with 200+ members. It's very easy to waste away the entire day watching sports and chatting with my online friends who think I'm super awesome for giving them winning picks. I'm not a great gambler but having spent the past 10+ years of this being my primary hobby, I see things that a lot of them don't. The point is, I have been intermittently disappearing from Facebook and gambling to better leverage against my loneliness in the "real world". It's an instant self-esteem boost to talk to those guys and an instant dopamine rush to hit a few winning bets, but the ultimate outcome is wasted time. They're both addictions and time sinks.


I'm not sure what the solution is and honestly, this is the biggest stressor in my life. I'm conventionally attractive and women don't seem to mind me being in their presence, but I am so far behind when it comes to "having game" that I just clam up and indulge in my proven comforts (internet and gambling). I feel like having a group of guy friends to hangout with would be beneficial as approaching women at the bar / club by yourself raises red flags.

"Where are your friends?" they ask.
"I wish I knew." I respond in my head.

Edited by CFB Sicko
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8 minutes ago, Courtjester said:

Took Bills -7 and threw it together with a Jazz M/L +141 just to mix some things up.

Was going to go with the under on MNF, but I have been getting killed betting unders lately. 

That's funny because I keep missing overs. Want to swap picks?

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22 minutes ago, facook said:

170.5 too low to go under on Cam's passing yards?

That’s roughly three yards more than any other shop I’ve seen.  i like under 25.5 attempts or under 15.5 completions a little more.  I was able to get under 1.5 TD -190 earlier and it instantly shot to -250.  He hasn’t thrown for two or more all season.
 

bookm@ker is about as sharp as they come on lines and they have under 3.5 FG at -150.  Most local shops I’ve seen it’s -120.

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3 hours ago, The Ref said:

That’s roughly three yards more than any other shop I’ve seen.  i like under 25.5 attempts or under 15.5 completions a little more.  I was able to get under 1.5 TD -190 earlier and it instantly shot to -250.  He hasn’t thrown for two or more all season.
 

bookm@ker is about as sharp as they come on lines and they have under 3.5 FG at -150.  Most local shops I’ve seen it’s -120.

I went under on yards and attempts and a lot of WR unders.  Wouldn’t be surprised if we see Stidham soon

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