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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)

I bet FD and DK go down at some point and either stop taking bets or give us the "It is taking up to 30 minutes for payouts to be posted" message. 

 
Under 56 - 110 - 1 unit
Sacks O4 - 110 - 1 unit

Rest of these for .5: 
Neither team gets to 6 points in first Q - +300
Chiefs ML and Under Parlay +185
Kelce MVP +1100
No Score in 1st 730 of game +200
TB punts first -180
TB 1st to 3 punts -150
FG or Xtra point hit post or crossbar +300
 

GLTA
AB

 
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Anyway, fairly easy decision for me:

1.) Brady has never lost the Super Bowl as an underdog. Only losses are to Foles and Manning.
2.) Buccaneers have the better pass rush.
3.) This NFL season has been more rigged than any I have ever seen.
4.) The Buccaneers are literally playing at home.
5.) There are enough "Tom Brady haters" who will bet against him for Vegas to make money.
6.) The Chiefs beat the Buccaneers in the regular season.

Everything is shaping up for the public to dump their money onto Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. I've mentioned this a few times, this is the Patriots / Giants SB on repeat except this time Tom Brady is the underdog riding the #5 seed to upset the best record in the NFL, Kansas City Chiefs.

Tampa Bay Buccanneers +140
 

 
Wine Thief said:
Damn Cookerino, I forgot to check in after I asked about squares, my bad.  I've been kinda hate watching the Bucs this year after they dumped Jaboo for some old washed up QB, prolly gonna play the ML on them and that way i'll be happy either way.  Mrs Nugs is all in on Tampa, nauseating.

Hope everyone wins and by wins I means hedge all bets to lock in a profit.  Cheers!
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You are probably better off.  I donated $80 to get 1/2 and 8/3.   :X

 
Are the same people who wouldn't let the Chiefs cover the spread in the regular season (Vegas) going to give it all back on the biggest game of the year?

 
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CFB Sicko said:
Are the same people who wouldn't let the Chiefs cover the spread in the regular season (Vegas) going to give it all back on the biggest game of the year?
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From what I've seen the books (b & m and online both) need KC moneyline and Tampa vs the spread, including having major liability on Buccs futures.  So a KC 1 or 2 point win would certainly validate your beliefs.

 
I think a sneaky play would be T. Johnson (TB) over 4.5 yards rec +100. This guy only gets about 2 targets a game but seems to pull out an amazing catch (or spectacular drop ) from those targets. 

 
So most late action on KC -3, but line moving towards KC.  
 

Total action balanced shaded to over but total falling.

KC 27-24 or somesuch

 
Rodrigo Duterte said:
HI I am looking to bet some props that align with a slanted view of the game.  Which is to say I think the Chiefs could win handily.

However I'm assuming that Mahomes Over props are premium priced and would rather not overpay on this stuff.

Are they any other angles you guys recommend in the prop pool, given my take on the game?  Or do I just close my eyes and wing it on a bunch of KC overs, along with some Tampa rushing unders?

Thank you.
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Mahomes MVP

Mahomes 2 TD plus KC wins

 
Bet a bunch of the multiple item player props on Bovada. Went heavily KC on them. Need every player to get 100+ receiving yards and a TD or two. Don't care if they were dumb. Watching the game with my son and rooting for offense.

Heads

1Q O10

1H O27.5

Hill 200+ receiving yards and a TD +3300

Either QB 500+ yards +3300

Mahomes & Brady 900+ passing yards, 70+ completions, 5+ passing TD +7500

Kelce and Evans 200+ receiving yards and 2 TDs each +9000

Both teams to score 10+ points in each half, Brady and Mahome 275+ pass yards each, Chiefs -6.5, 50+ points +510

Hill 100+ receiving yards & TD +185

Mahomes & Brady 250+ passing yards each, 2+ pass TDs each, Kelce and Evans 50+ receiving yards each, Hill 60+ rec yards +450

Brady & Mahome 200+ pass yards each, Kelce and Hill 70+ receiving yards each +100

Godwin and Kelce 2 TDs each +5000

Godwin and Hill 2 TDs each +5000

Mahomes 300+ pass yards, Watkins 100+ rec yards, CEH 100+ rush yards +6600

Hill to score first and last TD +4000

Kelce 100+ rec yards and 2+ TDs +500

Brady & Mahomes 600+ pass yards, Evans, Hill, Kelce & Godwin 400+ combined rec yards and 4+ combined TDs +650

Mahomes & Brady 550+ pass yards and 5+ pass TDs, Kelce, Hill and Evans combine for 300 rec yards and 3+ TDs +270

 
The Ref said:
Vegas cleans up with a 1-2 point KC win.

I have it setup with a bunch on KC ML and TB +3.5 so I feel ok about it.

I’m legit hurt I’m going to not win the anthem prop this year.  I was undefeated.

Tails

TB rec the opening KO

L Ball points -1.5 > 1Q points

Mahomes no Int, Brady first Int

Mahomes no rush/rec TD

mahomes U5.5 rush

brady U .5 Rush yards

No missed xp

Under 2.5 passers

Under 788 yards

T Hill MVP

I hope you all choke
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My lamelo bet got cancelled cause the #### was listed as blazers/hornets

 
Barstool giving anyone who bet 100 on the game a 1k bonus with 1x roll because their site went down if you bet there.

 
Well, one of those nights where you spread enough bets around that you win enough to cover the beer and Buffalo Wild Wings with an extra little  $ to show for it. Not somehow to be proud of, but things could have been worse I guess. 

 
Embiid over 29.5 points tonight.

Kings gave Jokic 50.  If Sixers roll and he sits out the 4th he might not make it, but even in a blowout he's got a good shot of getting there as they build the lead.

 
@guppymoney on twitter is a pretty sharp handicapper/tout.  I've been reading and watching some of his breakdowns recently and he's been very strong with free plays.  At the risk of mushing him, he's on Nova TT over and Nova/Creighton over today (total was talked about in a video I watched yesterday).  Here's a bit of a breakdown on the Team Total:

=====

Nova Team Total O 74 Nova 11-2 L13 vs Creighton Nova scored 76+ in 6 of 7 in Creighton. (80+ in 5 of 7)

Creighton vs Defenses that allow 50% shooting or higher are 6-1 Averaging 93 points a game in those 7 games. (nova allows 52.7% ranks #273 in the country) Creighton vs Top 50 offenses Giving up over 80 points a game. Nova #5 offense in the country

 
facook said:
Keep firing Em.  I like betting NBA but don't do it well most of the time.  I'll take your plays when you are willing to share them.
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@CFB Sicko made a believer out of me a while ago, missed today’s but please keep em coming  :thumbup:

 
modogg said:
no real research into this one, but going with 

Nets-Warriors ov 245

that is a bit of points, but seems like it should hit  :shrug:
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That is a ton of points to overcome. I worry with Durant coming back the Nets will be a little disorganized. I went with Curry o 5.5 assists -115. 

I also like N. Noel over 5.5 points +100 for some reason. He isn't much of a scorer, but he is starting tonight.

 
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Courtjester said:
That is a ton of points to overcome. I worry with Durant coming back the Nets will be a little disorganized. I went with Curry o 5.5 assists -115. 

I also like N. Noel over 5.5 points +100 for some reason. He isn't much of a scorer, but he is starting tonight.
Click to expand...
i've always loved Noel, if i find it i will join you 

 
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