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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (7 Viewers)

Northern Voice said:
The one downside to using Pinnacle is less live betting options. I should probably get a second site going for line shopping anyway... What site are most people using here? I did a quick search on reddit and Pinnacle seems to still be regarded as the best for lines and fast payouts. Looks like a lot of people love Bet365 for live betting. 

Also looking further, these sites might still be geo-restricted in the US and I'm probably asking in the wrong place.
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I have 10 books here in Michigan now that it's legal.  If you are in Canada, probably better off with Pinnacle, but they are the sharpest lines.  I liked SIA (quebec), not in the US anymore.   Good dog prices and paid fast.

 
Northern Voice said:
Thanks. 🍻

And with this in mind... I'm adding Detroit +136. Malcolm Subban is in net for Chicago and he's been good lately but he's not as good as Lankinen and puts the Red Wings in play.

Edit - Dylan Larkin is out for Detroit, I would pass on this. 
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Northern Voice said:
True, I thought Bernier was confirmed but looks like just "likely".
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Northern Voice said:
Larkin out for Detroit, probably best to stay away now (too late for me :( )
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:moneybag: . Just like I drew it up :lol:

 
New gambling rule. Do not place a live bet on a live total unless you know what the opening line was. Not the closing line. You want the opening line, that's where the rig starts.

http://www.scoresandodds.com is my resource for this. Really convenient to take advantage of live. You're looking for value relative to the opening line.

Since many of these games come down to the last few baskets, the more points you can get in the "correct" direction the better.

Got real hot on some CBB overs to end the night using this method. Had a plethora of games to pick from.

 
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regularguy said:
So you think the opening line is more reliable than the closing line?
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I haven't been able to put my finger on it. But there's something "special" about the opening line before people have placed their grubby fingers on it.

Say a line opened at 126, closed at 124, and is currently available at 131 live. There's a wide range here where early money would be safe but the closer to tipoff money is less safe and my late money is safest (assuming the under lean was correct).

Now obviously this doesn't help if the line is way off. But if the line opened low and money that came in pushed it lower and that consensus is clearly the under.

Then you know I love that under if I'm given an extra 2-3 buckets live. I can win on the consensus lean while the early money just barely loses. To answer your question, yes. Obviously line movement supplements that though.

But I can tell you, I'm normally garbage at college hoop totals and by simply being aware of pace and where the line originated helped me do quite well for myself last night.

Otherwise I'm just guessing. But under this method, I'm at least incorporating the market and potential rigs and taking advantage when a certain side is overbought.

 
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For instance, Memphis / Cincy opened at 137 and closed at 139.

It's now available at 149.5 and I'm going to take the under because there's a nice soft spot of 12 points where the consensus pick of over and my live under can both cash (relative to the opening line).

LIVE: Cincy / Memphis U149.5

 
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STARTS IN 15 MINUTES
 

Florida A&M @ South Carolina State

1st Half - Total Spread

Under (64.5) @ -104

Really layman's explanation. South Carolina is 1-16 and Florida A&M is 6-10. For a team to only be able to win 1 game tells me they don't have any offense. You can mask a bad defense with some good 3 point shooting, but any good 3 point shooting team is winning more than 1 game.

I'm expecting sub-30 from South Carolina giving the good guys are 34 points to play with. Let's get it on...

 
CFB Sicko said:
For instance, Memphis / Cincy opened at 137 and closed at 139.

It's now available at 149.5 and I'm going to take the under because there's a nice soft spot of 12 points where the consensus pick of over and my live under can both cash (relative to the opening line).

LIVE: Cincy / Memphis U149.5
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Another example.

Maryland / Michigan State opened at 134 and closed at 134. It's available at 126.5 live. That's almost an 8 point buffer. Since the line didn't move much, I expect this to close at or around the original line.

Either way we take Maryland / Mich State O126.5 live (and ride the 7.5 point cushion).

 
CFB Sicko said:
STARTS IN 15 MINUTES
 

Florida A&M @ South Carolina State

1st Half - Total Spread

Under (64.5) @ -104

Really layman's explanation. South Carolina is 1-16 and Florida A&M is 6-10. For a team to only be able to win 1 game tells me they don't have any offense. You can mask a bad defense with some good 3 point shooting, but any good 3 point shooting team is winning more than 1 game.

I'm expecting sub-30 from South Carolina giving the good guys are 34 points to play with. Let's get it on...
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THAT'S WHAT I DO!!!

 
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Clippers / Bucks O231 (buy as many points to get to this number without exceeding -130)

On paper it looks like a square pick, but the line opened at 236 and has only dropped. This indicates heavy money on the under which is the correct play being that it's "Sunday". But I'll fade the public and hope Giannis goes to the line 25 times.

 
CFB Sicko said:
Clippers / Bucks O231 (buy as many points to get to this number without exceeding -130)

On paper it looks like a square pick, but the line opened at 236 and has only dropped. This indicates heavy money on the under which is the correct play being that it's "Sunday". But I'll fade the public and hope Giannis goes to the line 25 times.
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Took O 225 live.

 
facook said:
Took O 225 live.
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I also bought back in at 217.5 to mitigate the expected loss. The good news for us, is that if they don't go off for 60+ in the 3rd quarter we can comfortably shut the game off.

It's the wasted time that hurts. Better to lose it midway in the 3rd than with 3 seconds left in the 4th.

 
These early Sunday games have been dog####.

Last Sunday, we have the UNDER. It goes to OT.
Today, we have the OVER. Clippers miss the 3 to force OT.

 
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Minnesota +125

The Wild are easily the team I've made the most $ on this season. They're good. Vegas is obviously good too but this line should be closer to a toss up. 

 
Florida +102

Was waiting on goalies here but we've got early confirmation it's Driedger in net. I don't like betting against Carolina, I think they're a great team but the model says Florida and it's been right more than not lately. 

 
CFB Sicko said:
Oh, I'm fine. I'm about to hit a +237 ML dog but because I bet too much on the 1H under and lost, I'm only going to make about $5. Meanwhile, people are asking me about said play which I deleted out of pure anger.

PROOF
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Why delete it?  If you hadn't deleted it I wouldn't have asked about it, I just would have looked to see if you won and moved on.

 
Anyone ever do NHL shutout props? Heard about these, labeled “both teams to score” on FanDuel and you blind bet No. priced anywhere +500 to +800 a game. Last Monday to Sunday it would be a 21u win blind betting every game at let’s say +600. Would love to know longer term trends on this, and if anyone here has dabbled. Might see how it goes.

 
mquinnjr said:
Anyone ever do NHL shutout props? Heard about these, labeled “both teams to score” on FanDuel and you blind bet No. priced anywhere +500 to +800 a game. Last Monday to Sunday it would be a 21u win blind betting every game at let’s say +600. Would love to know longer term trends on this, and if anyone here has dabbled. Might see how it goes.
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Avs Vs Sharks

Sabres vs Rangers

Red Wings vs Blue Jackets

All 6 teams in bottom 10 of league in scoring average.   :oldunsure:

 
Last night was rough. Minnesota blew a 4-2 lead in the third and Florida lost in OT. 

Canucks won and I tailed @CFB Sicko on Dayton ML - live betting, so only +130 or so, but also meant I didn't bet the 1H o/u that didn't hit. 

Anyway, close to a big night but so far away. 

 
Tailing you @Northern Voice.  Yesterday was a bit of a kick in the cajones.  Better luck today.  Once Greiss gets confirmed for Detroit I'll be ML parlaying Columbus with someone in ncaa hoops.  Will let you know.

Oakland/Youngstown over 151 at 4:00 pacific.

 
facook said:
Tailing you @Northern Voice.  Yesterday was a bit of a kick in the cajones.  Better luck today.  Once Greiss gets confirmed for Detroit I'll be ML parlaying Columbus with someone in ncaa hoops.  Will let you know.

Oakland/Youngstown over 151 at 4:00 pacific.
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Ottawa +219 isn't totally out of the picture for me with Price in net for the Habs (because he's bad and Ottawa has been winning) but I haven't fired on it yet.

 
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