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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (18 Viewers)

It's Friday night in LA. The Lakers are on a 4 game winning streak and the Staples Center is going to be LOUD. Hawks are a beatable 17-20 team.

Lakers can comfortably win this by double-digits. Dump your entire bankroll onto this pick and enjoy your week. Take a drink everytime:

1.) Malik Monk scores a bucket.
2.) Lebron James misses FT.
3.) Russell Westbrook turns the ball over.

🤑

 
rick6668 said:
With NYS opening today, what are the best bonuses and sites to use?  Any pointers.  Thanks
Click to expand...
I would take advantage of all of them.  Most should offer some sort of deposit bonus / risk free bet

start with one book, hit all their bonuses, then withdraw and move onto the next book

they’ll always have new customer bonuses so no need to rush

longer term I like BETMGM the best and also DK.  FanDuel is ok

have not tried Caesars or Points Bet yet

i know there are others too

 
Dan Lambskin said:
i know there are others too
Click to expand...
NY has FD, DK, Caesar’s, and BetRivers (or another Rush Street product) to start.

But yeah, churn through all of them. I have made money from all 11 books here in AZ so far, generally by being somewhat conservative with the new player bonuses instead of YOLO’ing them into 10 team parlays or whatever (which is what they hope you do.) Eventually you’ll figure out which one(s) suit your betting style best and consolidate there. My favorite is Caesar’s but I also like MGM and Draftkings. Fanduel sometimes. 

 
Dan Lambskin said:
I would take advantage of all of them.  Most should offer some sort of deposit bonus / risk free bet

start with one book, hit all their bonuses, then withdraw and move onto the next book

they’ll always have new customer bonuses so no need to rush

longer term I like BETMGM the best and also DK.  FanDuel is ok

have not tried Caesars or Points Bet yet

i know there are others too
Click to expand...


McBokonon said:
NY has FD, DK, Caesar’s, and BetRivers (or another Rush Street product) to start.

But yeah, churn through all of them. I have made money from all 11 books here in AZ so far, generally by being somewhat conservative with the new player bonuses instead of YOLO’ing them into 10 team parlays or whatever (which is what they hope you do.) Eventually you’ll figure out which one(s) suit your betting style best and consolidate there. My favorite is Caesar’s but I also like MGM and Draftkings. Fanduel sometimes. 
Click to expand...
:yes:

 
McBokonon said:
NY has FD, DK, Caesar’s, and BetRivers (or another Rush Street product) to start.

But yeah, churn through all of them. I have made money from all 11 books here in AZ so far, generally by being somewhat conservative with the new player bonuses instead of YOLO’ing them into 10 team parlays or whatever (which is what they hope you do.) Eventually you’ll figure out which one(s) suit your betting style best and consolidate there. My favorite is Caesar’s but I also like MGM and Draftkings. Fanduel sometimes. 
Click to expand...
I saw your nane and got all excited for a soccer play again :lol:

 
I have a bad habit of overthinking things and talking myself into dumb things. Today’s is this

I think KC gets a big lead on Denver today and gives Gore some 2nd half run. O24.5 rushing seems pretty likely if that’s the case

thoughts ?

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
I have a bad habit of overthinking things and talking myself into dumb things. Today’s is this

I think KC gets a big lead on Denver today and gives Gore some 2nd half run. O24.5 rushing seems pretty likely if that’s the case

thoughts ?
Click to expand...


Makes perfect sense if that's the game script, and hard to see how that's NOT the game script.  You should be very wary that I agree with you. :D

 
I can't find Chris Jones over .5 sacks, but if you can find it he needs one today to hit a $1.5 million incentive for the season. 

 
rick6668 said:
With NYS opening today, what are the best bonuses and sites to use?  Any pointers.  Thanks
Click to expand...
Here’s what I found. 3 freebie NYS bets. also if you join on a referral below we both get extra. If you don’t still free money bets once your in. 
 

Free money. 

FD. Bet $50 on chiefs Broncos over 3 total points.  Free $50 to win 

DK $25 bet on Knicks over 1 point free $25

Bills Jets Any time 1 TD scored $25

$100 easy winners so NY people will feel good. Plus bonuses

https://account.nj.sportsbook.fanduel.com/join#DRAF=Gregory_519313

(FD)

Come play DraftKings Sportsbook and use my personal link to start betting.
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/r/sb/Gottabesweet/US-NY-SB

(DK)

 
Gottabesweet said:
I’m so excited to finally contribute.  
 

I really like Marvin Jones to get over 4 catches for a $500k bonus.  He’s signed next year and they have tons of cap space. No line on DK or FD yet.  
Click to expand...


Would you play over 4.5?  He's gone over that 2 out of last 4 games, but those are the only 2 times since their bye 11/1.

 
facook said:
Would you play over 4.5?  He's gone over that 2 out of last 4 games, but those are the only 2 times since their bye 11/1.
Click to expand...
Yes probably. He’s averaged 4.1. But they are a heavy underdog and likely throwing.  I feel like he’ll want that money. 

 
rick6668 said:
With NYS opening today, what are the best bonuses and sites to use?  Any pointers.  Thanks
Click to expand...
I started with Fanduel, deposit 1k and then risk it all one bet, if it loses they replace the 1k, if it wins 🤑

Still working thru the other books to see what's best.  DK has a 5k risk free bet but I'm worried I might be disqualified because of a DFS account their, trying to find an answer to that first before doing anything with DK.

Ceasars has 3k but haven't looked their yet

Betrivers is $250 cash on 250 deposit

 
Gottabesweet said:
Here’s what I found. 3 freebie NYS bets. also if you join on a referral below we both get extra. If you don’t still free money bets once your in. 
 

Free money. 

FD. Bet $50 on chiefs Broncos over 3 total points.  Free $50 to win 

DK $25 bet on Knicks over 1 point free $25

Bills Jets Any time 1 TD scored $25

$100 easy winners so NY people will feel good. Plus bonuses

https://account.nj.sportsbook.fanduel.com/join#DRAF=Gregory_519313

(FD)

Come play DraftKings Sportsbook and use my personal link to start betting.
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/r/sb/Gottabesweet/US-NY-SB

(DK)
Click to expand...


On FD first bet should be 1k if you can swing it, it's a risk free bet, if you take advantage of the NY promo as your first wagers you lose out on the big one.

 
lumpy19 said:
 🤑

Still working thru the other books to see what's best.  DK has a 5k risk free bet but I'm worried I might be disqualified because of a DFS account their, trying to find an answer to that first before doing anything with DK.
Click to expand...
Yep, be careful. I referred a buddy to DK last year to get the bonus for each of us and it was denied because of his dfs acct.

dumb

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
I have a bad habit of overthinking things and talking myself into dumb things. Today’s is this

I think KC gets a big lead on Denver today and gives Gore some 2nd half run. O24.5 rushing seems pretty likely if that’s the case

thoughts ?
Click to expand...
Great read here. Chiefs playing from behind and McKinnon playing RB

 
facook said:
Cowboysfan8 said:
I have a bad habit of overthinking things and talking myself into dumb things. Today’s is this

I think KC gets a big lead on Denver today and gives Gore some 2nd half run. O24.5 rushing seems pretty likely if that’s the case

thoughts ?
Click to expand...


Makes perfect sense if that's the game script, and hard to see how that's NOT the game script.  You should be very wary that I agree with you.
Click to expand...


Cowboysfan8 said:
Great read here. Chiefs playing from behind and McKinnon playing RB
Click to expand...


Win is a win my friend.   :hifive:

 
Thanks for the advice guys, missed the referral sorry.

Put 1K on Fanduel with the free bet on KC-11.5.  That is not looking good.

How the heel does Denver kick that FG... 

 
rick6668 said:
Thanks for the advice guys, missed the referral sorry.

Put 1K on Fanduel with the free bet on KC-11.5.  That is not looking good.

How the heel does Denver kick that FG... 
Click to expand...
I would avoid all NFL Week 18 if you could. Save those dollars and bet twice as much on playoffs where you know players and coaches are aligned on WINNING and not STATS or whatever ulterior motives players on losing teams may have.

First NBA play of the night, starts in 15 minutes:

1H - Boston -4, -120 for $200

 
facook said:
I can't find Chris Jones over .5 sacks, but if you can find it he needs one today to hit a $1.5 million incentive for the season. 
Click to expand...
Not Jones-specific and I haven’t fact-checked this but it rings true:

These incentive based bets on the over for yards, receps, etc..in the final week last season went 2 and 17 and the year before 3 and 21….just putting that out there….not sayin they aren’t worth a stab, but everybody and their mother is playing this angle…Vegas aint dumb..

 Someone else commented, and I remember this happening, that teams often pay these incentives out of good faith if they get close.

 
McBokonon said:
Not Jones-specific and I haven’t fact-checked this but it rings true:

These incentive based bets on the over for yards, receps, etc..in the final week last season went 2 and 17 and the year before 3 and 21….just putting that out there….not sayin they aren’t worth a stab, but everybody and their mother is playing this angle…Vegas aint dumb..

 Someone else commented, and I remember this happening, that teams often pay these incentives out of good faith if they get close.
Click to expand...
Great insight

 
Gottabesweet said:
Here’s what I found. 3 freebie NYS bets. also if you join on a referral below we both get extra. If you don’t still free money bets once your in. 
 

Free money. 

FD. Bet $50 on chiefs Broncos over 3 total points.  Free $50 to win 

DK $25 bet on Knicks over 1 point free $25

Bills Jets Any time 1 TD scored $25

$100 easy winners so NY people will feel good. Plus bonuses

https://account.nj.sportsbook.fanduel.com/join#DRAF=Gregory_519313

(FD)

Come play DraftKings Sportsbook and use my personal link to start betting.
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/r/sb/Gottabesweet/US-NY-SB

(DK)
Click to expand...
Another Superboost today on FD.  Bills Jets 3+ total points score max $50

Is this for NY people only?  This is basically free money right?

 
If any of you New Yorkers haven’t signed up for BetRivers yet and will deposit and bet $50 within 30 days, I get a free bet if I refer you. I’ll take a PM - need first name and email you’ll use.

ETA: Caesar’s, too

 
Last edited by a moderator:
So looking at FD, they allow same game parlays.

I looked at the Bills/Jets and this is Bills -16 and over 40.5  I was thinking, wow they shouldn't allow that as it hits the 33% criteria.

I put it in  to see and it will take it but the odds calculate to +207, while each bet is -110 and -115 .  So it looks like they  shave the odds here, I was expecting +260.

Same thing with the Colts/Jags, the odds are shaved on a 2 teamer for Fave/over or dog/under.  Colts/Over is +222.

I still may like this one

 
Last edited by a moderator:
McBokonon said:
Not Jones-specific and I haven’t fact-checked this but it rings true:

These incentive based bets on the over for yards, receps, etc..in the final week last season went 2 and 17 and the year before 3 and 21….just putting that out there….not sayin they aren’t worth a stab, but everybody and their mother is playing this angle…Vegas aint dumb..

 Someone else commented, and I remember this happening, that teams often pay these incentives out of good faith if they get close.
Click to expand...
Jones didn't even show up in the boxscore. Thanks for posting this. It does seem like once these trends become mainstream they reverse course. 

May be the trend of "team with nothing to play for covering vs. team with something to play for" reverses today (though Denver hit yesterday). That has been on a 65% run last few years but I heard a lot about it his week. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
facook said:
Jones didn't even show up in the boxscore. Thanks for posting this. It does seem like once these trends become mainstream they reverse course. 

May be the trend of "team with nothing to play for covering vs. team with something to play for" reverses today (though Denver hit yesterday). That has been on a 65% run last few years but I heard a lot about it his week. 
Click to expand...


7-3 this weekend by my count.  Falcons, Jets, Panthers lost ATS against teams who were playing to get in or for a division/better seed.  Every other matchup in that scenario the team with no motivation covered.  Crazy.

 
McBokonon said:
Not Jones-specific and I haven’t fact-checked this but it rings true:

These incentive based bets on the over for yards, receps, etc..in the final week last season went 2 and 17 and the year before 3 and 21….just putting that out there….not sayin they aren’t worth a stab, but everybody and their mother is playing this angle…Vegas aint dumb..

 Someone else commented, and I remember this happening, that teams often pay these incentives out of good faith if they get close.
Click to expand...


I didn't track all of them, but a lot of these did cover today.  Steph Diggs, Gronk, Marvin Jones to name a few.

 
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