Butler +10
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Butler at Villanova (-10)
12:00 pm ET
Butler has defeated the current No. 1 team in the nation three consecutive times. There are actually several valid reasons why. Let’s take a look at a few to determine if the Bulldogs can make it four in a row against Villanova.
Jalen Brunson
Villanova’s outstanding point guard has averaged nearly 31 ppg, while shooting a ridiculous 30-50 in the past three meetings with Butler (all losses). The general philosophy of Butler when defending Villanova has been to turn Brunson into a scorer. By doing so, it takes away Villanova’s outstanding ball movement and contains the rest of their lethal shooters. In those three games, Brunson has just nine total assists.
Kamar Baldwin
Brunson’s counterpart on the Butler side has been unstoppable in terms of getting into the paint. As a result, Baldwin forces Villanova’s constantly switching defense out of its element. Brunson’s lack of lateral quickness defensively was exposed by Baldwin, who has morphed into an attacking point guard in his first full season on the ball.
Kelan Martin
Martin has been the other big factor offensively for the Bulldogs. He’s a matchup nightmare for Villanova’s defense, especially this year. LaVall Jordan did a phenomenal job of getting Martin in spot up situations as a shooter (usually when uber defender Mikal Bridges was orced to help on Baldwin’s penetration). Jordan also recognized that Martin could win the matchup every time Eric Paschall switched on to him.
Butler’s Pick and Roll Offense
Butler’s offense relies heavily on the pick and roll, as it uses PnR at the 24th highest rate in the country, per Synergy. Villanova is typically an outstanding pick and roll defense thanks to the versatility of players like Bridges and Donte DiVincenzo. However, this year’s team hasn’t been as effective, as freshman center Omari Spellman really struggles with his role in the defense. He gets lost on assignments in ball screen situations and doesn’t know when he should hard hedge or stay home. As a result, he’s often out of position when the ball enters the restricted area. Spellman isn’t a poor defender, but he clearly has a hard time grasping his role in Wright’s constantly switching defense.
Butler’s ubiquitous pick and roll offense also gives Nova trouble when Martin takes the initial ball screen. He invariably gets an undersized guard switched onto him, which he exploits every time. Martin scores in the 92nd percentile on ball screens, which is quite a luxury to have at the 4 spot.
Butler’s Press Offense
Nova’s 3/4 court 1-2-2 zone press has effectively limited opponents to .95 points per possession, per Synergy. While it generated late turnovers to get Villanova within “respectability” range in their most recent loss to Butler, it was generally shredded throughout. Butler scores in the 95th percentile nationally out of their press offense.
The Conclusion
So can Butler make it four in a row over Nova with a win in Philly? The Bulldogs certainly won’t hit at an absurd 15-22 from 3 with Tyler Jorgensen pulling up from 27 feet again, but their unique ability to exploit several of the holes in Villanova’s defense will give them a shot. Additionally, the likely unavailability of Booth and Paschall leaves Jay Wright with 4 freshmen trying to pick up his ball screen continuity offense and constantly switching man to man defense.
The PICK: Butler +10