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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!!


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Well dudes, interesting update!  My wife and daughter surprised me today, told me they were a comin home 10 days early and would be here within the hour.  The tumor is now so small that he wants to ho

Home.  Some 40 hours later and the kid is basically back to normal.  Amazing.  She'll move up to Orlando for a few months for the radiation treatment with the Mrssus but for her the scary part is over

Well dudes, we're not sure what is next....but tonight Izzy takes her last chemotherapy treatment.  We'll go up in a few weeks to take a peek in her skull to see 'sup...but for tonight - we celebrate.

1 hour ago, swirvenirvin said:

Don't think Michigan is over rate at all IMO.. nice solid team, played purdue tough, crushed michiagn st

I've been fighting with Michigan fans on twitter, so I get it. I think they have talent. They also lost at NW, needed OT to beat a
bad Minnesota team by 1, barely squeaked by Maryland at home, got absolutely clocked at Nebraska. I think they're an above
average team. I think all of this "they're definitely in" talk is ridiculous. Based on what? A great win in East Lansing and beating
a sub par UCLA team (I know, they won at Arizona, in a terrible matchup for Cats) and a mediocre Texas team? I don't view
those as season defining wins. UCLA's win last night will help Michigan more down the stretch than they help themselves I bet.
I really believe Michigan loses two more games, at least before B1G tournament. They're fine, I certainly don't think they should
be viewed as a stone cold lock for the tournament. And yes, some of this is my Nebraska fandom coming out. We lost all of our
opportunities for big wins, some of them, painstakingly, especially Kansas, and now we're forced to win out essentially, which I
think we will do. But I will tell you this, if you watch a lot of hoop, it's not hard to see, Nebraska is better than Michigan right now.
And we're evidently in the first four out category according to most. SO, stone cold lock for Michigan doesn't make a whole lot of
sense to me.

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11 hours ago, gussy said:

Here's are my observations, some I've picked up from him and others, some are just mine:


Davidson has switched defenses in the last few weeks and have become a great bet on team
I think Rhode Island is over rated despite their record
 

 

Davidson +7 @RI tonight. :popcorn: 

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The deposit direct-to-USD in Gemini is good for protecting against market fluctuations while waiting for ACH to clear. I bought BTC (on stupid Coinbase) at ~10k and it crashed before my ACH cleared. So I'm looking at a loss if I trade it.

Day traders, any ideas on when it'll get back over 10k so I can realize the full value of my original transaction? Thank you and good luck in all your endeavors.

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8 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

The deposit direct-to-USD in Gemini is good for protecting against market fluctuations while waiting for ACH to clear. I bought BTC (on stupid Coinbase) at ~10k and it crashed before my ACH cleared. So I'm looking at a loss if I trade it.

Day traders, any ideas on when it'll get back over 10k so I can realize the full value of my original transaction? Thank you and good luck in all your endeavors.

Seems like it's recovering, but no clue. Way too many variables in terms of what the economy at-large is doing, possible regulations from financial institutions/govt's, etc. etc.

Were there a reliable NBA system for tanking teams, am I remembering that correctly? Should be a banner tank-season, lots of candidates, lots of good potential draftees.

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Home.  Some 40 hours later and the kid is basically back to normal.  Amazing.  She'll move up to Orlando for a few months for the radiation treatment with the Mrssus but for her the scary part is over.  She was zapped 12 years ago so it's super risky to refry her bean but we've run out of options...but phase 1 went as well as possible.  She's not even taking the hard meds, just Tylenol.  It's unbelievable to me.  Very happy dad today.

 

Beard status:  still ####ed.

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4 hours ago, Billy Bats said:

 

Davidson +7 @RI tonight. :popcorn: 

I love Davidson, just don't know that I love them tonight. Rhody has caused them problems in the past, not an ideal matchup. Should be a very interesting game though.

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1 hour ago, gussy said:

I love Davidson, just don't know that I love them tonight. Rhody has caused them problems in the past, not an ideal matchup. Should be a very interesting game though.

:thumbup: Good thoughts, I’m a fan of RI myself just thought the 7 was a touch too high. 

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3 hours ago, derek245583 said:

They are good...just not deep enough. 

Also, they will have a bad shooting day at some point.

I tend to agree.  Just wanted to jump on it a little bit back.  Last time I checked was down to 20-1.

 

15-1 today.

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4 hours ago, Good Posting Judge said:

Were there a reliable NBA system for tanking teams, am I remembering that correctly? Should be a banner tank-season, lots of candidates, lots of good potential draftees.

Not that I know of.

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There are a lot of one-possession, closely-lined games tomorrow; nationally-televised spots, too. It should make it easy to just "follow the money" in those games. Let the shraps do the capping and let the book send the telegraph.

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20 hours ago, gussy said:

Here's are my observations, some I've picked up from him and others, some are just mine:

Cincinnati unders
fade Temple when laying double digits
SMU do not bet list
Wichita St over rated
Davidson has switched defenses in the last few weeks and have become a great bet on team
I think Rhode Island is over rated despite their record
A guy who had parlayed UVA with unders in every game would have made a lot of money
Clemson and UNC are both over rated
Big 12 is a mess
Play Marquette against teams that can't defend the 3
Play Creighton at home
I look to bet Montana and Weber in conference and fade N. Dakota
Montana St is under rated in Big Sky
Bet Nebraska at home, and wait on the play, Vegas and so called sharps have played against NU all year
Penn St is a bet on team now that they have their full compliment of players
Michigan is over rated
Indiana can't make throws, don't bet as a favorite
William and Mary overs all the time
UIC is a good bet on team, Oakland is over rated ATS
I've made a lot of money betting Canisius and fading Marist this year
Loyola, Chi is a bet on team, Drake is under rated. Missouri St is over rated. Fade Valpo
Wyoming at home is usually worth a look
Murray St is extremely athletic and could probably win a game in the tourney
Washington and Utah are my two favorite bet on teams in the Pac12. Fade ASU
Fade Kentucky, bet Alabama at home. Stay away from Florida, too inconsistent
Fade Denver and W. Illinois. I love S. Dakota St.
Before tonight I'd say bet ULL every night. UTA biggest under achiever
Zags very over rated. Fade Pepperdine



 

Marquette PK vs St Johns tomorrow early line.  St Johns 300th vs the 3.

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19 hours ago, got_nugs said:

Home.  Some 40 hours later and the kid is basically back to normal.  Amazing.  She'll move up to Orlando for a few months for the radiation treatment with the Mrssus but for her the scary part is over.  She was zapped 12 years ago so it's super risky to refry her bean but we've run out of options...but phase 1 went as well as possible.  She's not even taking the hard meds, just Tylenol.  It's unbelievable to me.  Very happy dad today.

 

Beard status:  still ####ed.

:thumbup:

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Played these based on some online projections. 

 

Egor Koulechov    over 6.5rebounds

Egor Koulechov over 13.5points

Mikal Bridges  under 16points

Kelan Martin under 3 3pointers

Kelan Martin under 21.5 points

Chris Silva under 14.5 points

Egor Koulechov over 1.5 3 pointers

Jalen Hudson over 2 3 pointers

Jevon Carter under 16.5 points

Jevon Carter under 13.5 reb and ast

Jevon Carter over 2 3 pointers

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1H - Temple -6

Fade the square. I don’t know anything about college basketball. However, I like to think with research that I can pick a winner.

My research says Temple is hot and that South Florida is a dumpster fire.

Edited by Stuart Ullman
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Loyola, Chi -3
Bill & Mary/Deleware O153.5

BMOC plays
Bama/UT U139
X/Creighton O162.5


C. Michigan -1.5
Purdue +3 and ML +140
Evansville +3
Nebraska -9
S. Dakota St./Oral Roberts O152.5
Portland +10
UIC -10.5

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23 minutes ago, Angry Beavers said:

Butler +10

Action sports app has an article liking this.  Lets see what happens!

Butler at Villanova (-10)

12:00 pm ET

Butler has defeated the current No. 1 team in the nation three consecutive times. There are actually several valid reasons why. Let’s take a look at a few to determine if the Bulldogs can make it four in a row against Villanova.

Jalen Brunson

Villanova’s outstanding point guard has averaged nearly 31 ppg, while shooting a ridiculous 30-50 in the past three meetings with Butler (all losses). The general philosophy of Butler when defending Villanova has been to turn Brunson into a scorer. By doing so, it takes away Villanova’s outstanding ball movement and contains the rest of their lethal shooters. In those three games, Brunson has just nine total assists.

Kamar Baldwin

Brunson’s counterpart on the Butler side has been unstoppable in terms of getting into the paint. As a result, Baldwin forces Villanova’s constantly switching defense out of its element. Brunson’s lack of lateral quickness defensively was exposed by Baldwin, who has morphed into an attacking point guard in his first full season on the ball.

Kelan Martin

Martin has been the other big factor offensively for the Bulldogs. He’s a matchup nightmare for Villanova’s defense, especially this year. LaVall Jordan did a phenomenal job of getting Martin in spot up situations as a shooter (usually when uber defender Mikal Bridges was orced to help on Baldwin’s penetration). Jordan also recognized that Martin could win the matchup every time Eric Paschall switched on to him.

Butler’s Pick and Roll Offense

Butler’s offense relies heavily on the pick and roll, as it uses PnR at the 24th highest rate in the country, per Synergy. Villanova is typically an outstanding pick and roll defense thanks to the versatility of players like Bridges and Donte DiVincenzo. However, this year’s team hasn’t been as effective, as freshman center Omari Spellman really struggles with his role in the defense. He gets lost on assignments in ball screen situations and doesn’t know when he should hard hedge or stay home. As a result, he’s often out of position when the ball enters the restricted area. Spellman isn’t a poor defender, but he clearly has a hard time grasping his role in Wright’s constantly switching defense.

Butler’s ubiquitous pick and roll offense also gives Nova trouble when Martin takes the initial ball screen. He invariably gets an undersized guard switched onto him, which he exploits every time. Martin scores in the 92nd percentile on ball screens, which is quite a luxury to have at the 4 spot.

Butler’s Press Offense

Nova’s 3/4 court 1-2-2 zone press has effectively limited opponents to .95 points per possession, per Synergy. While it generated late turnovers to get Villanova within “respectability” range in their most recent loss to Butler, it was generally shredded throughout. Butler scores in the 95th percentile nationally out of their press offense.

The Conclusion

So can Butler make it four in a row over Nova with a win in Philly? The Bulldogs certainly won’t hit at an absurd 15-22 from 3 with Tyler Jorgensen pulling up from 27 feet again, but their unique ability to exploit several of the holes in Villanova’s defense will give them a shot. Additionally, the likely unavailability of Booth and Paschall leaves Jay Wright with 4 freshmen trying to pick up his ball screen continuity offense and constantly switching man to man defense.

The PICK: Butler +10

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49 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

I bought three boxes of girl scout cookies. I'm gonna give them away as gifts. They feel like such a hilarious novelty.

At least it's something you can't get at just any store. Hate it when kids try to charge you $2 for a candy bar that you can buy for 75 cents at a gas station.

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Just now, Stuart Ullman said:

Man, the pace in college basketball is awful. I regret making any attempt to bet on this.

I love when guys are like "I don't know anything about CBB, but I like.............." and then are surprised when things don't work out, lol.

Keep doing you Em.

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Just now, gussy said:

I love when guys are like "I don't know anything about CBB, but I like.............." and then are surprised when things don't work out, lol.

Keep doing you Em.

It’s not about the bet, this crap is boring. I might as well be betting hockey.

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Or maybe, “don’t bet on anything you don’t enjoy watching”.

It’s not about the action. It’s about finding something you can be passionate about, watch for hours, study, learn the intricacies, and never get bored.

Edited by Stuart Ullman
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21 hours ago, ChainsawU said:

There are a lot of one-possession, closely-lined games tomorrow; nationally-televised spots, too. It should make it easy to just "follow the money" in those games. Let the shraps do the capping and let the book send the telegraph.

Baylor was the first real telegraph I saw. And that was just glancing at the cell phone while running errands all day. S&O still has Kansas as their #1 wager of the day. If I'd seen that earlier I would have dropped a stack on Baylor for sure. Still haven't placed a bet since Wednesday. Ready to get started on this same angle some more.

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