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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter The Ref
- Start date
facook
Footballguy
This is a great point. It's not. Not even close. But...there's this emotional/psych thing where I hate to get this close and get nada. Makes me a ppuussy huh?
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
I am guilty of this - hedging into a profit when it is not life changing $. Sometimes that seems like the smart move, other times, not so much.
If you liked it enough to play it, let it ride... or hedge enough to not lose any $ that way you are free rolling it. Of course, this comes from the guy on Belgium to win it all - and I did not hedge against Brazil, in fact, I bet on Belgium to advance. Ha!
facook
Footballguy
Wow, great bet. What odds are you sitting on, like 8-1? And will you hedge vs France?
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
8.5-1 and I don't see hedging. If I hedge there, then I would also need to hedge in the final. IF Belgium gets to the final it will be tempting to lock in enough to not lose $, but that will depend upon odds, mood at the moment etc. It is hardly a big bet so I am content to sit back and enjoy the ride. Good Luck with your bet - you are on the doorstep of a great hit!
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facook
Footballguy
Yeah at those odds I'd just let it ride too. Belgium looked fantastic yesterday, and I think they are a coin flip vs France. And like I've written several times now, if Croatia didn't look so spent I'd feel a lot better. Most likely I'll place enough on Belgium Tues to douible my initial investment and see what happens. Also want to see if Croatia's goalie was sandbagging or what with that hammie.
facook
Footballguy
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
I was just about to add - seeing you are at 80-1, I would be guilty of hedging just a little!
Billy Bats
Footballguy
If Kane can score 3 in one game, so can our boy! Haha a shame he should’ve had at least one, if not more against Japan. I’m assuming it’s a loser but will be fun it he makes it interesting.
regularguy
Footballguy
Anybody else watching this ####show at Daytona?
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I think Croatia will be more or less recovered in 4 days. They were in really hot weather today.
regularguy
Footballguy
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Diamondbacks score first, -105
The Padres have had too much success against the Diamondbacks the past two nights and I think it stops tonight.
Two excellent pitchers going after each other. Ever since they installed the humidor, the ball hasn't been traveling nearly as far. I dare say, Chase Field has become a pitchers park.
Anywho, I bet the Diamondbacks to score first the last two games and was let down. Third time's a charm!
Parlay:
Diamondbacks / Padres U8, EVEN
Diamondbacks ML, -200
+200
The Padres have had too much success against the Diamondbacks the past two nights and I think it stops tonight.
Two excellent pitchers going after each other. Ever since they installed the humidor, the ball hasn't been traveling nearly as far. I dare say, Chase Field has become a pitchers park.
Anywho, I bet the Diamondbacks to score first the last two games and was let down. Third time's a charm!
Parlay:
Diamondbacks / Padres U8, EVEN
Diamondbacks ML, -200
+200
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The Ref
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
IMAX 3D
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
facook
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
2 pages of uselessness
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
regularguy
Footballguy
Only other bets were Logano -125 over Harvick (1/2 of Menard bet) and Ford to win +250 (bad line that of course wasn't cancelled). I wanted to fade other guys, but they were matched against each other. I was going to tread lightly regardless. This is just laughable.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
I had a few of those Ford to win +250 too, Matt Dibenedetto was our only hope :( . 10 of the top 15 cars were Chevy
regularguy
Footballguy
Interesting. I played it at Heritage which had it double-listed (should have been Toyota line?). Was even or worse most places. I thought Stenhouse and then Harvick would pull it through for us and then ............I had a few of those Ford to win +250 too, Matt Dibenedetto was our only hope :( . 10 of the top 15 cars were Chevy
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
My books had a Ford line (at like -130), a Toyota line, then Ford +250. I assumed it was supposed to be the chevy line. i dont play many "to win" bets, but I've bet Jones 6 or 7 times, but not tonight of course. Had a pretty good night on matchups but it was all lucky garbage, bull#### race.
regularguy
Footballguy
I'm not going to torture myself by looking back, but I know I also bet often on Jones to win during the first 2-3 months of the season. I'm happy for him to win as a fan of the sport, but I hate that it was under these circumstances. I pretty much threw in the towel awhile back on 'to win' bets after seeing how much I'd blown this year with Harvick/Truex/Kyle B. winning most weeks. If I'd sprinkled some $ around this week, he likely wouldn't have been one of them. I feel fortunate to escape with the Menard matchup win.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Which was worse...
Racecars or kickypunchy(the last fight.. if you can call it that)?
Racecars or kickypunchy(the last fight.. if you can call it that)?
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Completely unpredictable.
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Daily Recap:
6-5-1 (64.55%, -$41.50 - $211.11 parlays = -$252.61)
58-55-6 (51.33% YTD, -$896.56 YTD)
A significant improvement on my last two Saturdays where I went 1-6-1 & 4-7-1 respectively.
Not "good" by any stretch but avoiding the big pitfall days is a big part of the game and we avoided that here. Parlays are really what have been killing me. I have not hit a parlay since June 30th and that's what's really killing me. -$598.65 on parlays alone.
Really a unsustainable pace to be losing them. Hitting 2-3 bets in a row is my speciality, so I expect to warm up on those and see my overall profitability increase. I'm not too worried about it though. My overall numbers leave me much to be confident about:
My overall record for "winning days" is (10-4-4, 71.43%). 10 out of 18 days, I've posted more winners than losers. 4 of those days I've posted more losers than winners. 4 of those days I've had an equal amount of both.
My overall record for profitability is (11-7, 61.11%). 11 out if 18 days, I've posted plays that won money. 7 out of 18, I've posted plays that lost money.
Overall, my short term goal is simple. Break my 9 day slump of not hitting a parlay. That's where turning around my profitability starts and finishes.
If I keep missing my parlays, I'm going to continue to bleed money regardless of who good my overall record is or isn't.
That 5-0 or 8-0 day is just around the corner. Things can turn around in a hurry, I just have to stay fearless.
6-5-1 with a near miss on a +153 money lines and a few parlays tells me I'm knocking on the door of a big deal.
Stay patient, stay hungry.
6-5-1 (64.55%, -$41.50 - $211.11 parlays = -$252.61)
58-55-6 (51.33% YTD, -$896.56 YTD)
A significant improvement on my last two Saturdays where I went 1-6-1 & 4-7-1 respectively.
Not "good" by any stretch but avoiding the big pitfall days is a big part of the game and we avoided that here. Parlays are really what have been killing me. I have not hit a parlay since June 30th and that's what's really killing me. -$598.65 on parlays alone.
Really a unsustainable pace to be losing them. Hitting 2-3 bets in a row is my speciality, so I expect to warm up on those and see my overall profitability increase. I'm not too worried about it though. My overall numbers leave me much to be confident about:
My overall record for "winning days" is (10-4-4, 71.43%). 10 out of 18 days, I've posted more winners than losers. 4 of those days I've posted more losers than winners. 4 of those days I've had an equal amount of both.
My overall record for profitability is (11-7, 61.11%). 11 out if 18 days, I've posted plays that won money. 7 out of 18, I've posted plays that lost money.
Overall, my short term goal is simple. Break my 9 day slump of not hitting a parlay. That's where turning around my profitability starts and finishes.
If I keep missing my parlays, I'm going to continue to bleed money regardless of who good my overall record is or isn't.
That 5-0 or 8-0 day is just around the corner. Things can turn around in a hurry, I just have to stay fearless.
6-5-1 with a near miss on a +153 money lines and a few parlays tells me I'm knocking on the door of a big deal.
Stay patient, stay hungry.
F5 - Cubs ML, -125 (L)
Phillies/ Pirates no run in first inning, -125 (L)
Astros score first, -140 (W)
Indians score first, -125 (W)
F5 - Phillies ML, +115 (L)
F5 - Rangers ML, -120 (L)
Ray's / Mets U24 HRE, -120 (W)
F5 - Rockies ML, +157 (P)
Nationals score first, -150 (W)
F5 - Dodgers ML, -155 (W)
Royals / Red Sox no run scored first inning, -115 (W)
Diamondbacks score first, -105 (L)
Parlays:
F5 - Twins ML, -135 (P)
F5 - Braves ML, -125 (W)
+213, +$88.89
F5 - Phillies ML, +115 (L)
F5 - Braves ML, -125 (W)
+287, -$100
Dodgers ML, -155 (W)
F5 - Red Sox / Royals U5, -110 (L)
+214, -$100
Diamondbacks / Padres U8
Diamondbacks ML, -200
+200, -$100
Phillies/ Pirates no run in first inning, -125 (L)
Astros score first, -140 (W)
Indians score first, -125 (W)
F5 - Phillies ML, +115 (L)
F5 - Rangers ML, -120 (L)
Ray's / Mets U24 HRE, -120 (W)
F5 - Rockies ML, +157 (P)
Nationals score first, -150 (W)
F5 - Dodgers ML, -155 (W)
Royals / Red Sox no run scored first inning, -115 (W)
Diamondbacks score first, -105 (L)
Parlays:
F5 - Twins ML, -135 (P)
F5 - Braves ML, -125 (W)
+213, +$88.89
F5 - Phillies ML, +115 (L)
F5 - Braves ML, -125 (W)
+287, -$100
Dodgers ML, -155 (W)
F5 - Red Sox / Royals U5, -110 (L)
+214, -$100
Diamondbacks / Padres U8
Diamondbacks ML, -200
+200, -$100
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Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Got busy working and missed the 1PM games. Hopefully that doesnt bite me in the tush.
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
F5 - Braves ML, EVEN
F5 - Orioles / Twins U5.5, -110
Red Sox / Royals no run first inning, -110
Parlay:
F5 - Cubs ML, -150
F5 - Royals / Red Sox U5.5, -115
+250
F5 - Orioles / Twins U5.5, -110
Red Sox / Royals no run first inning, -110
Parlay:
F5 - Cubs ML, -150
F5 - Royals / Red Sox U5.5, -115
+250
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Angry Beavers
Footballguy
was just reading that Flexen got called up by the Mets.. wish I could have gotten in on that TB Over.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Yup! I definitely had him and his 10.0 ERA circled on my cheatsheet.was just reading that Flexen got called up by the Mets.. wish I could have gotten in on that TB Over.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Phil!!!
The Ref
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
F5 - Rockies ML, +120
Rockies / Mariners U27.5 HRE, -120
Diamondbacks score first, -125
Giants score first, +115
F5 - Giants ML, -115
Parlay:
Diamondback ML, -205
Diamondbacks / Padres U7.5, -115
+178
Parlay 2:
F5 - Diamondbacks ML, -200
F5 - Giants ML, -115
+180
Rockies / Mariners U27.5 HRE, -120
Diamondbacks score first, -125
Giants score first, +115
F5 - Giants ML, -115
Parlay:
Diamondback ML, -205
Diamondbacks / Padres U7.5, -115
+178
Parlay 2:
F5 - Diamondbacks ML, -200
F5 - Giants ML, -115
+180
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Man, the Padres are KILLING ME. That's 4 games in a row they've scored before the Diamondbacks.
Unreal. #### that team.
Unreal. #### that team.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Thanks man I got one more about athletic wear - the cardinal might be the best old school mascot but do lady cardinals wear pale brown uniforms? Something to think about.
regularguy
Footballguy
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