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The Ref

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4 minutes ago, regularguy said:

There's a new MLB guy, Zerillo, who seems to based on his tweets.  Like swirve, i'm just looking for non-prop action by following a few of these guys plus Gamehunter.  Zylbert brings much of the twitter hate upon himself with his arrogance. 

Does he have his record posted?

Playing these for boxing. Will try to write up later.

Lomachenko 7 - 12 +162 (this Friday)

Estrada +200  (4/27)

Breazeale ITD +805 (5/18)

Fury/Schwarz o 9.5 even *1.5u* (June I guess)

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Was really hoping I could get better than 30-1 on Matsuyama or Casey but I waited too long.  Will have to hope for something live.

Going to have to nibble on Conners at 150-1 at bv (bkmaker still not offering) because he tees off first tomorrow and he did birdie the first two holes on his last lap 4 years ago.

You could accuse me of chasing the win on that one, but Corey had one of the best iron performances of the last few years last week.  In my models he is grading out as Keegan Bradley without the fatal flaws.  Conners has equally as terrible putting stats, yet scores much higher at bogey avoidance.

 

Conners model shows him as top 20 in the field in SG T2G ahead of Scott, Garcia, Koepka, Bubba as well as #2 in GIR and #3 in proximity.  Scrambling is weak but should have some favorable tee times for conditions before the cut.  8:30 am tomorrow and 11:15.  Gusts look to spike between 2-4pm on Friday.

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57 minutes ago, Good Posting Judge said:

Do any of those Action Network dudes track their CLV?

No clue, but AN let Zylbert go.  He writes for Gaming Today now, or Gaming News...something like that.  Pretty sure it's the free tout newspaper they put in sportsbooks.

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Was able to get Conners at 200-1 at BV about 15 mins ago.

 

1st round leader:

Rose +2000

Speith +2200

Fowler +2500 

 

Take the skillz that killz during what should be the best conditions for the round.  Good news that if these get into trouble early I should be able to reposition for live betting.

 

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I'm going to hold off and hope for a kneejerk reaction in the live market with #1 being a bogey hole for about 30% of the field.

Then I have Finau at 48.97-1 and 21 guys at triple digit odds.

Here we go!

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Still 25-30 mph late afternoon winds on the forecast tomorrow.

 

Here in Wisconsin we went from 70 degrees on Tuesday to 4 inches of snow on the ground and howling winds this morning.

A lot of the normal "wind" guys aren't going to have their usual advantage because line drives can not be shaped at Augusta.

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Since Dave Roberts became manager Dodgers 17-5-1 O/U trying to end a three-game losing streak (13-0 O/U when they score 1+ off the opponent pen). Muncy, Gale, and Buehler have no data versus Wacha, while the other six Dodgers in the lineup own a combined .954 OPS against him in 65 combined at bats. This season Dodgers 5-0 SU 11±4 rpg lined less than -120 versus RHP.

The umpire leans heavily toward the Cards. Since Sep 14, 2017, the home team in the last game of the series has gone 10-0 SU with Miller behind home plate, and the Cards are 23-14 SU career overall with Miller behind home plate (sine 2004) - the most profitable MLB team in that spot behind Cleveland.

Cards 8-4 O/U this season and 7-0 O/U when their bullpen allows 1+ runs.

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8 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

Since Dave Roberts became manager Dodgers 17-5-1 O/U trying to end a three-game losing streak (13-0 O/U when they score 1+ off the opponent pen). Muncy, Gale, and Buehler have no data versus Wacha, while the other six Dodgers in the lineup own a combined .954 OPS against him in 65 combined at bats. This season Dodgers 5-0 SU 11±4 rpg lined less than -120 versus RHP.

The umpire leans heavily toward the Cards. Since Sep 14, 2017, the home team in the last game of the series has gone 10-0 SU with Miller behind home plate, and the Cards are 23-14 SU career overall with Miller behind home plate (sine 2004) - the most profitable MLB team in that spot behind Cleveland.

Cards 8-4 O/U this season and 7-0 O/U when their bullpen allows 1+ runs.

St. Louis will have winds of nearly 20 mph blowing out to left field and temps around 80 degrees,... from Action Network. 

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1 hour ago, ChainsawU said:

Since Dave Roberts became manager Dodgers 17-5-1 O/U trying to end a three-game losing streak (13-0 O/U when they score 1+ off the opponent pen). Muncy, Gale, and Buehler have no data versus Wacha, while the other six Dodgers in the lineup own a combined .954 OPS against him in 65 combined at bats. This season Dodgers 5-0 SU 11±4 rpg lined less than -120 versus RHP.

The umpire leans heavily toward the Cards. Since Sep 14, 2017, the home team in the last game of the series has gone 10-0 SU with Miller behind home plate, and the Cards are 23-14 SU career overall with Miller behind home plate (sine 2004) - the most profitable MLB team in that spot behind Cleveland.

Cards 8-4 O/U this season and 7-0 O/U when their bullpen allows 1+ runs.

Cards just scored two on a wild pitch. Don't think I've ever seen that before.

4-3 Cards btm 2

 

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10 hours ago, hooter311 said:

You can live bet the 3 balls by the hole on bv.....

I'll be the guy cursing in the corner on his cell phone at the vet office in about an hour.

How'd you do on these?  I only had a chance at the last few groups and just tracked it.

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L3 seasons D-Backs are third-best in cashing the under at home in the last game of the series. Alternatively, they are the best team in the MLB for hitting the over in G1 at home during that same time. In a 28-game sample since last season, D-Backs went 12-16 SU in G1 at home:

when the bullpen allowed 0 runs: 7-1 SU
when the bullpen allowed 1+ runs: 5-15 SU

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2 hours ago, facook said:

How'd you do on these?  I only had a chance at the last few groups and just tracked it.

Mostly just bet the pros high in bogey avoidance against the amateurs and first year guys.  Didn't get to watch as much live today as I would have liked.

 

 

Top 3 don't scare me at all and I have more live triple digit guys under par than expected:

Poulter -4. +8000

Harding -3  +40000

Barnrat -3 +25000

Conners -2 +20000

Holmes -2 +15000

Bjerregaard -2 +28500

Woodland -2 +8000

Smith -2 +11000

Finau -1 +4896

Hoffman -1+10250

Olesen -1. +22500

 

Chalk sucks, buy a dog and turn it loose.

 

 

ETA: original barnrat line was off, I'm holding 250-1

Edited by hooter311
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In the 33 games that Zack Godley started and the D-Backs lost, 20 of them were by a margin of 3+ runs. I also like that the Pods are guaranteed a full nine innings to cover, with three of their main Arizona relievers already taxed in an already crappy bullpen. Rolling the dice..!

Padres -2½ +305
Pods/D-Backs o10 +140

Edited by ChainsawU
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38 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

In the 33 games that Zack Godley started and the D-Backs lost, 20 of them were by a margin of 3+ runs. I also like that the Pods are guaranteed a full nine innings to cover, with three of their main Arizona relievers already taxed in an already crappy bullpen. Rolling the dice..!

Padres -2½ +305
Pods/D-Backs o10 +140

In 🤗

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If you don't read my tweets:

 

Currently underpriced live: Day 50-1, Finau 70-1, Woodland 80-1, Kuchar 80-1, Rose 125-1, Conners 125-1, Olesen 200-1, Simpson 250-1, Stenson 350-1, Snedeker 500-1

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