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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!!


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Well dudes, interesting update!  My wife and daughter surprised me today, told me they were a comin home 10 days early and would be here within the hour.  The tumor is now so small that he wants to ho

Home.  Some 40 hours later and the kid is basically back to normal.  Amazing.  She'll move up to Orlando for a few months for the radiation treatment with the Mrssus but for her the scary part is over

Well dudes, we're not sure what is next....but tonight Izzy takes her last chemotherapy treatment.  We'll go up in a few weeks to take a peek in her skull to see 'sup...but for tonight - we celebrate.

7 minutes ago, Angry Beavers said:

Our hero bogies 18 for the 2nd straight day... but he is right in it 

 

 

A nice piece of humble pie to end the day keeps your mind right for the next round.

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1 minute ago, Angry Beavers said:

I like this way of thinking - he needs to go on a bit of a run tomorrow - get it 7 under and be in position for Sunday  :banned: 

Huge advantage for the guys in already with the weather delay.  That would include one Mr. Conners.

 

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41 minutes ago, The Man With No Name said:

Round 3 last 4 years:

72, 74. 72, 70

Love data!  Always appreciated.

But I don't believe in trends.  

ETA:  I have no idea what is going to happen on Sunday with the weather.  I don't see Augusta starting early, and I also don't see them delaying until Monday.  In that case a wind player from the back is exactly what I would be shopping for.  

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Since last season Astros have scored 120 runs on the road off opposing left-handed starters (1st MLB). They scored 189 total runs in those games and went 27-8 SU (1st MLB). Since he became a starter in 2016, the Mariners have gone 25-11 SU in Wade LeBlanc's starts. As far as starting pitching goes, that's been their most successful starter in terms of % of games won from dudes who've started more than 5 games for them during that time. In home starts, LeBlanc takes the cake for the M's at 16-4 SU +$1,184, their most-profitable home starter during that time - almost 600 bucks better than the next-best dude in that situation (Mike Leake +$613).

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Hesitant to fade LeBlanc and the Mariners, who have scored 117 runs so far this season - best in the MLB. I think Miley might be due to give up some runs after going 17 scoreless outs versus the A's in his last start..

Mariners o4½ +110
Mariners F5 o2½ +125
Astros/Mariners o9 -110

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13 hours ago, hooter311 said:

If you don't read my tweets:

 

Currently underpriced live: Day 50-1, Finau 70-1, Woodland 80-1, Kuchar 80-1, Rose 125-1, Conners 125-1, Olesen 200-1, Simpson 250-1, Stenson 350-1, Snedeker 500-1

I got crushed on matchups today, sorry about that.

Sleep made me sloppy, Tournament prep must have caught up with me.  The live bets made up for a lot of it on value.  Have a fairly decent position on Day now.  Conners goes under par for 3rd round straight at Augusta and his line still went up.  Plenty of room if you want in now, 150-1 was what I hit Conners at last week so it's obtainable! 10 birdies on Sunday at Valero proves he can hang.  Legit top 5 iron game in PGA, I don't know as much about the athletic prime of golfers as I do other sports, but baseball's 28-33 range is a pretty good baseline.

Weather now looks like almost no wind tomorrow and the leaders will likely get the best conditions to work in.  If you aren't packing heat you're likely to get left behind tomorrow.  Most of this cream has already been separated.  If they play Sunday afternoon, I'd make sure to have some deep field lottery tickets, and Europeans will undoubtedly be where the value is at.

 

Player notes:

-Chucky 3 Sticks scoring average going into this year was 73.96 and this was his first sub 70 round in 28 attempts with the 67 today.  I have money on him so I'm just going to ignore regression for now.  Just wanted to throw that out there.

-Who is due to regress is Molinari with the lone bogey so far.  First time in 8 attempts at being in the top 20 after the cut here at Augusta.  Fade material.

-Rory has 9 of them already, which is why he's not in contention.  I wouldn't be giving up on him yet.  I have a few more ideas but waiting to improve my own position first.

-Schauffele also has 7 bogeys already which surprised me glancing at his score.  Nobody else in that range (-5 to -7) has more than 4.  To not regress from a 65 at Augusta is something I can't even wrap my head around.  Snagged at 150-1 before tee off today, it would be fantastic for him to prove me right.

-Oost -3 on the 4 par 4's and 3/3 on sand saves.  Fade!  Plus he looks like he's from the land of forgotten toys.

-I don't say too many nice things about him, but conditions favor Bubba's game in round matchups tomorrow.  The less wind the better for Bubba and a little morning dampness is incredibly helpful for his game.

-Same goes for Tiger.  If they go out Sunday afternoon his driver won't be able to keep up with the guys around him in the wind. 

-Still stunned Rose missed the cut for the first time in his career.  Him and Casey were #1 and #2 on my list to win going into the tourny, now they are gone and a record number of amateurs are in.

 

 

Edited by hooter311
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On 4/11/2019 at 11:34 AM, Angry Beavers said:

I hope ya'll were smart enough to put Conners in a draft king lineup........

DK 50K Single Entry:

Corey Conners  2.6%  POS: T16 (-3)  46.5

Charley Hoffman  17.7%  POS: T23 (-2)  36

Dustin Johnson  13.6%  POS: T6 (-6)  48

Rory McIlroy  18.9%  POS: T36 (E)  36

Thorbjorn Olesen  1.2%  POS: T23 (-2)  31.5

Jimmy Walker 5.0%  POS: T36 (E)   26

TOTAL FANTASY POINTS: 224.00

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24 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

I am annoyed that when there are multiple leaders at the end of a round that the bet gets split. I have no issues with the winnings getting split. That makes sense, but i didnt realize your original bet also gets divided. 

That just feels wrong. 

I was losing money chopping by the hole live bets, that was pretty dumb.

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2 minutes ago, lumpy19 said:

Conners u72.5 -140 at betonline

Wise +0.5 over Mitchell -130 at mybookie, I have Wise favored so I'll gladly take the 0.5 stroke for -130

Mitchell has some positive college experience on the course form his Georgia Bulldog days.  I have them real close in the model so still agree you are on the right side.

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That Conner's line is money though.

He's #2 in PGA in proximity next guy even playing is Bradley at 16th and he had 8 birdies yesterday.

Conner's also sitting at #3 in GIR in PGA behind Kuchar and Chucky III.

Pretty strong correlation with those two stat lines.  

Took him for low score of R3 at +8050

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The thing about today is, if you finish in the top 8 I don't see how you aren't drawing dead in the wind tomorrow afternoon.  I'm seeing electricity out of the forecast but the winds starting at 15mph/25 mph gusts at 9 am and really picking up by 2pm with 40 mph gusts.  I can't even picture the ball staying on the green in those conditions.

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R3 matchups

Harding -106 over Kizzire

Watson -118 over Leishman

Olesen -116 over Kisner

Li -132 over Kaymer

 

 

DJ -155 over Oost

Thomas -130 over Dechambeau

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Not as confident on Gastelum tonight as I was earlier in the week, I don't like that cryptic "Worst spot of my career" he said yesterday at the weighins considering he almost eeked out a split decision against Woodley after being hospitalized in a foreign country 24 hours before the fight.  He couldn't turn down opportunity, but UFC has been making a really good habit of setting guys up for failure against Adesayana,always short notice or injured guys fighting him.

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the amazing golf betting picker guy‏ @Hooter311 1m1 minute ago

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With record wind forecast for Sunday, still a great time to buy Fowler 40-1, Rory 55-1, Matsuyama 200-1, Olesen 250-1, Bjerregaard 250-1.

 

the amazing golf betting picker guy‏ @Hooter311 12s12 seconds ago

 

Lowest R3 score: Thomas +2548, Fowler +2562, Spieth +2835, Bjerregaard +6550, Conners +8050

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Bjerregaard is live too at +25000, he's won the Portugal Master's on the Euro tour and his caddie, Smart, was on Willet's bag for his win.

Olesen +25000 also has power and is leading the tourney in GIR.  Precision and power are exactly what you need here.

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##### just realized Pineda's start got pushed back. I don't like him as much now. Although I did find out Pineda might like pitching in the cold. When it's less than 56 degrees outside Pineda's team has gone 14-2 SU (14-0 SU scoring more than 1 run) with Pineda allowing 30 runs in 86.2 innings pitched..

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Estadio de Beisbol Monterrey is a 21,900-seat stadium that opened in 1990. The elevation of the ballpark is a little more than 2,000 feet. The air is dry and hot, and with a game time temperature of 90 degrees, air density index of 55, and the wind blowing out to left-center, the atmosphere appears inviting for offense. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright, who will start Saturday's game in the Cardinals' first ever Mexico Series, bounced a few baseballs to get a feel for the rebound (the stadium has an artificial turf field and a dirt infield). He held a baseball as high as his right arm would allow, and called on anyone nearby, "Hey, watch this," he said - dropped the baseball and watched it rebound to about his waist. "That's something. I expect.. crazy," Wainwright said Friday, sitting in the dugout at Estadio de Beisbol Monterrey. "I expect it's going to be loud and it's going to be awesome." As Wainwright showed with his bounces, the ball will rebound high and quick. The turf is fast, the infield is hard, and the dimensions are friendly. The walls are close and symmetrical - 325 feet down the line, 400 to dead center, and 360 in the alleys. "Win win," said one Cardinals pitcher (for the hitters). "Looks fast," one Cardinal said Friday, and described how the ballpark is built for home runs and has a runway as an infield. Oh, and foul territory has no space to steal outs.

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