Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!!


The Ref

Recommended Posts

11 hours ago, jamil said:

Let's say you're holding a Toronto +5000 to win the ship. What do you do

@lumpy19 would tell you to hedge. 

Depends, IMHO. 1) You wait until Tor is facing an elimination game  2) You bet GS for the series now 3) With games 1 and 2 in Tor, hope Tor wins game 1 ( or games 1 and 2) and then you get a better number of GS.  I would talk myself in scenario #3,  GS would be available at better odds and then I would pass cause' I am winning the series, and then I would watch GS win 4 straight. Luckily for you I do not have any action on the series outcome... yet!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Faves vs M's this season 27-13 SU and 26-13-1 O/U with 6 rpg (left-handed faves 9-3 SU and O/U with 7 rpg). A's seeing Leake for the second time this season..

Athletics -1 -108
Athletics Over 5½ +120
Mariners/Athletics o9½ +100

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Angry Beavers said:
16 hours ago, jamil said:

Let's say you're holding a Toronto +5000 to win the ship. What do you do

@lumpy19 would tell you to hedge. 

Depends, IMHO. 1) You wait until Tor is facing an elimination game  2) You bet GS for the series now 3) With games 1 and 2 in Tor, hope Tor wins game 1 ( or games 1 and 2) and then you get a better number of GS.  I would talk myself in scenario #3,  GS would be available at better odds and then I would pass cause' I am winning the series, and then I would watch GS win 4 straight. Luckily for you I do not have any action on the series outcome... yet!

3

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

EFL championship playoff final.

Basically, the championship game for the minor leagues. Winner gets a spot in the Premier league next season.

Villa beat Derby 3-0 and 4-0 during the season.

o2.5 -106 seems like the no brainer but you have to go back to the 2012 final to get a game to go o2.5 in this final.  

These games are usually played extremely tight. Early goals or red cards typically blow the game open....or they're due for an over and we get 3 goals by HT.

U2.5 -124

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/23/2019 at 2:40 PM, lumpy19 said:

👍

Most people I've worked with would probably be surprised to know I was "into sports".  Always been able to keep it compartmentalized amazingly well.

No sense talking shop to someone who doesn't gamble, outside of a public perception "mush report" while acting like a dummy.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/25/2019 at 10:49 PM, jamil said:

Let's say you're holding a Toronto +5000 to win the ship. What do you do

Hedge to win 10u at -280

+22u Toronto

+10u Golden state

 

I'd use that as a baseline and adjust if necessary based on confidence.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, The Ref said:

@Good Posting Judge

little birdy told me Ruiz at +1300 is more of a live dog than that price.  Thoughts?

I have irrational man-love for Ruiz. He looks like a fat piece of ####, but he's got incredibly quick hands and a good chin. And if it were Wilder at +1300, I'd be mashing the button because I think he'd give DW hell. Ruiz's one loss was a disputable decision, and if he were unbeaten I'm absolutely certain those odds would be shaved down.

But Joshua's a smart fighter, and he's mobile enough to just stick-and-move with his jab (8" reach advantage) and not get into the trenches with Ruiz. And Joshua doesn't have the fight-stopping power of a Wilder, but he's very precise when it's time to put someone away. I think the play here is Joshua on points 6/1.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Good Posting Judge said:

Ed Miller's new book about sports betting is very good so far, about 1/4 of the way through. Nothing tremendously earth-shaking, but it's very solid. $10 on Kindle!

As in you're learning new things, or it's confirming stuff you already know?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

hbo ain't right for making that chernobyl ####. there's no way it's remotely historically accurate, especially on a historical level, and I think it's irresponsible. it should be in russian and english subtitled, for starters. just gross bro. sickening

Link to comment
Share on other sites

also broke up with booty woman, removed her key and gate access. hell of a day. embrace your day. because it may change overnight. ask me if I'm going to survive. the answer is yes. and I'm excited despite being sad.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

also broke up with booty woman, removed her key and gate access. hell of a day. embrace your day. because it may change overnight. ask me if I'm going to survive. the answer is yes. and I'm excited despite being sad.

Dam. Sorry to hear that. Hang in there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Good Posting Judge said:

Ed Miller's new book about sports betting is very good so far, about 1/4 of the way through. Nothing tremendously earth-shaking, but it's very solid. $10 on Kindle!

His column in Card Player the past couple months has been about sports betting too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Good Posting Judge said:

Ed Miller's new book about sports betting is very good so far, about 1/4 of the way through. Nothing tremendously earth-shaking, but it's very solid. $10 on Kindle!

good interview on recent bet the process podcast as well

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, ChainsawU said:

hbo ain't right for making that chernobyl ####. there's no way it's remotely historically accurate, especially on a historical level, and I think it's irresponsible. it should be in russian and english subtitled, for starters. just gross bro. sickening

Completely disagree.  Read through the Chernobyl thread, might alter your thinking. Also it’s the best thing on tv by a long shot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, ChainsawU said:

also broke up with booty woman, removed her key and gate access. hell of a day. embrace your day. because it may change overnight. ask me if I'm going to survive. the answer is yes. and I'm excited despite being sad.

Whoa.  Glad you are excited.  PM if you wanna vent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, facook said:

Completely disagree.  Read through the Chernobyl thread, might alter your thinking. Also it’s the best thing on tv by a long shot.

I know nothing about it.  Is it completely non-fiction or is it a story based the facts of the event?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, eoMMan said:

I know nothing about it.  Is it completely non-fiction or is it a story based the facts of the event?

Based on the facts of the event.  Actually very historically accurate (other than the actors speaking in their own language rather than Russian - which was done so that their mangled Russian would not be a distraction from the story).

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, ChainsawU said:

hbo ain't right for making that chernobyl ####. there's no way it's remotely historically accurate, especially on a historical level, and I think it's irresponsible. it should be in russian and english subtitled, for starters. just gross bro. sickening

Sorry to hear about booty woman but don’t take it out on what is a fantastic show.

  • Love 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/28/2019 at 4:27 PM, hooter311 said:

Most people I've worked with would probably be surprised to know I was "into sports".  Always been able to keep it compartmentalized amazingly well.

No sense talking shop to someone who doesn't gamble, outside of a public perception "mush report" while acting like a dummy.  

That's exactly my story as well, I don't talk shop at work

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
  • Create New...