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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!!

The Ref

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The dude with the $100,000 Blues futures ticket, I hope he cashes that ish.  Partly cause I have the Blues plus money in the series, but mostly to stick it to the shraps that all said he should hedge and have been a little condescending toward him since he hasn't hedged.  He bet with his heart.  As Mick Jagger said, Sometimes, all you need is love.

Edited by facook
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28 minutes ago, facook said:

Saw, Rockies are +190 and going against Kyle Hendricks.  He's ok, but does not miss many bats.  Feel like that's too rich for the Rox in Wrigley with the wind blowing out.  What you think?

I don't know dude. Is he sucking this year? I know he can lock it down, have hit a lot of unders with that dude before. It's probably more about the Rox starter. His worst attribute is his GB+walk rate. I'm not really familiar with that metric right now, but with the wind blowing out fly balls and walks sound dangerous af at Wrigley. A more reasonable price might be around -175 for the Cubs, so if you're getting better than +175 on the Rox, couldn't argue with you trying to find value. Rox hold the #1 OBP in the MLB though. And the total looks right, no tricky stuff there. So if you think Rox gonna mash on Kyle go for it.

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1 hour ago, ChainsawU said:

Fading Stras after his team's day off when he himself is starting on more than 4 days rest: 16-11 SU (avg line +152). Nats still haven't won a game after a day off this season.

White Sox +235
White Sox o2½ -150
White Sox/Nats o8½ -105


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Just now, comfortably numb said:

You contemplate hedging out of GS some?

Ive been toying with the idea since yesterday 

Nope.  I figure they lose tonight, and Klay and KD come back Fri.  If they win tonight it's gravy.  Just me though.

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4 minutes ago, facook said:

Shraps apparently on the under and Raps.  Total down from 213.5 to 211 and Raps +4.5 down to +3 some places.  


2 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

sharps, or someone has the early news on Klay

My close personal friend and renowned not-rotund shyster tout Dr. Bob said on VSiN today that losing Looney is a way bigger deal than losing Klay.  Apparently the trio of Looney, Dray, and Steph is the biggest :nerd: -numbers advantage in the playoffs by far.  I feel like his argument is outweighed by the fact that, um....Klay is good.

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3 minutes ago, comfortably numb said:

Yea, that's what the gambler in me says. 

The responsible part in me says if i want to minimize my exposure today is the day.

(Or did i spell ##### wrong)?

I mean frankly, how good will you feel if you hedge out and win some money (or lose less) on a team that is known more for it's biggest fan - Drake - than anything else?  For me?  None.  None good is how I'd feel.

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Opposing teams 7-13 SU versus Raps in these playoffs:
Leading by 8+ at halftime: 5-0 SU
Not leading by 8+ at halftime: 2-13 SU

Think I might sell some points with GSW 1H. Also the double result wager GSW 1H+FG is selling for $1.35. That's the most-juiced I think I've ever seen one of those.

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Dang, Klay news is moving the line a full point at a time. Of course he's listed active. I don't think that's breaking news as much as it's gamesmanship, though. They even said "if it hurts, I ain't playing." I think it will go normal par-for-the-course 1Q. But then get real dirty 2Q after Kerr get to lock-in a game plan on defense. I'm gonna wait and bet live, see if I can buy on some bad news. See which way the emotion goes and then fade. Maybe get a GSW +200 on the 1H moneyline somehow.

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me and booty woman were at the pool last night, being quiet and minding out own business. the novice concierge walked thru and asked us to leave. said the pool area was closed for the night 30 minutes ago. he bit the hand that feeds him too - I bring that dude juice all the time. He likes mango nectar out of a can from the little grocery store. and he doesn't know about the Christmas bonus either, he hasn't been here long enough. kinda ruined my night a little bit! because I had no idea I was under curfew. looking back, it's kinda my fault, as I should've manned up and asked him to let me make it worth his while if he kept walking. plus, how am I going to keep bringing him juice now.

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1 hour ago, ChainsawU said:

Peralta making a spot start and Marlins woke up in June 4-0 SU +$665 with 42 runs scored (11±4 rpg).

Marlins +163
Marlins -1½ +245
Marlins o3½ -105

I didn't bet it cause I think I need to be done with baseball but that Marlins play jumped off the page to me too.  

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3 hours ago, facook said:

Maaaan.  @swirvenirvin HATES Matt Zylbert.  Like, more than Golden Tate.

Looking at a few of Zylbert's bets, he's just throwing darts it looks like. Nothing in the way of CLV (for the few I looked at), and he bets morning of games, so he's late behind the people who bet day before, and he's early before lineups come out.

Also the one bet per day thing is dumb. He's filling a quota.

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for later

On 8/2/2018 at 8:27 PM, ChainsawU said:

L3 seasons Diamondbacks 34-12-1 O/U +$2,090 after a day off (1st MLB); 22-3-1 O/U with a total less than 9.

On 4/30/2019 at 2:33 AM, ChainsawU said:
  • 44-17-1 O/U +$2,537 after a day off
  • 30-6-1 O/U with a total less than 9
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D-Backs after a day off, total less than 9, plus you're giving me 9 guaranteed innings and an extra bat in the lineup. Rolling the dice..

Diamondbacks o3½ -140
Diamondbacks F5 o1½ -150
Diamondbacks/Jays o8½ -110
Diamondbacks/Jays F5 o5 +110

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That team total was selling at o4 -105 this morning. All day long I been wondering if I wanted to be content with a push. But I guess they must've gotten an under ump or something that pushed the total down to a juiced 3½. I don't care though. Now all I needs is 4 with an extra bat in the lineup (AL park) and full nine innings to get there (visiting team). Cheers homie

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