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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!!


The Ref

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Happy Father's Day to all you degen dads in here.  Hope you have a great day and are affirmed by the important people in your lives.

 

Nice little miracle over in Sweden vs Thailand Women's World Cup to get the day started.  If that doesn't say "Happy Father's Day, facook!" I don't know what does.  :banned: 

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3 hours ago, lumpy19 said:

I can't seem to find this, I agree and I'd like to place a wager

Cover Brooks, Rory, Reavie, and the field and I like it just as much!

 

Not scared of the Gap toothed one.  If that's the storyline to my demise, so be it.

 

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My 11 year old hasn't spoken or responded to my texts for over a month....when we got back from a cruise to the Bahamas where he got to swim with pigs and dolphins and run free otherwise.

 

What a goober.  I was at that age too, so I'm cutting him some slack.  His mom has a better connection for fortnite, so I get it.

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6 minutes ago, hooter311 said:

Cover Brooks, Rory, Reavie, and the field and I like it just as much!

 

Not scared of the Gap toothed one.  If that's the storyline to my demise, so be it.

 

If you have access to bm, I strongly recommend this approach.

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1 hour ago, kevzilla said:

I'm with you, GB, but a young sportsman like Chain is going to want mid-Strip. My GB Osaurus recommends Vdara for quiet and elegance. You can get to the Aria or Bellagio sportsbook in a few minutes. Rates appear soft this summer, don't be afraid to look at Cosmopolitan, which will provide the most scenery.

I'm pretty low key.  But my favorite place on the strip is the planet Hollywood sports book.  Usually get a couple drink vouchers for every $200 bet or they have electronic blackjack at the bar where you can slow play $20s and slam cocktails.  

 

Maybe I'm weird...

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1 hour ago, McBokonon said:

I wanna start gambling again. What's the best place for a small-timer who doesn't want a ton of sites to chase odds but also wants a ton of props and other options/poker? Betonline seems to be the choice on reddit but it's not the overwhelming favorite. I have an account at Bovada already and I could just find that if I wanted.

Don't use bo, but bv has more options than my other books.

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12 hours ago, ChainsawU said:

Dodgers 36-5 SU +$2,849 (avg line -163) scoring 3+ runs in Ryu's career home starts and 21-0 SU when he's on extra rest (more than 5 days since his last start). Dodgers most-profitable home team in the last game of a series L5 seasons.

18 hours ago, ChainsawU said:

set up the ML +450 as the first leg of a two-teamer

Bought Dodgers ML and closed the two-teamer with Dodgers o4½ +120. I think LA wins 6-3. Dodgers like to close out these home series.

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About to pull the trigger on Cubs o1½ at even money. Ryu has held the opposing team to 0 runs thru 4 innings at home 19 times, but only once did the opponent end up with fewer than 2 runs full game. #### I read it wrong. nvm. still bought it, but it's action junkie at this point my bad :blush:

Cubs o1½ +100 (live betting extra)

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On 5/15/2019 at 6:02 PM, ChainsawU said:

Astros looking at a day off is really the only time they cooled off this season.

Getaway day for them has rendered them officially untrustworthy. Just the last game of the series in general this season, they'll just randomly lay down.

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4 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

What's the max u would drop on a suite in Vegas. Like 2k for 4 nights does that sound right.

Depends on where really.

 

that said $500 a night should get you a very nice room no matter where you staying except if it’s during March madness or New Year’s Eve.

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9 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

What's the max u would drop on a suite in Vegas. Like 2k for 4 nights does that sound right.

This time of year, I'd book the basic and then negotiate at the counter.  Rinse, wash, repeat if necessary.

Do the ol' sandwich trick with a few bills and ask about the "upgrades"?  If they say no, keep looking.  It's worth the risk in my opinion as somewhere will treat you nice without having to spend the money.

 

I would only book a suite in Vegas on an event weekend.

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I''d try Hard Rock Chain, especially if you don't mind being off the strip.  Sandwich trick worked for me and some buddies a few years ago.  It was weekend before superbowl but $100 got  us upgraded over 3 nights to one of the 2-room poolside cabanas with an outdoor patio area and the 2 story floor to ceiling automatic curtains.

Watch out for the Rhino next door.  When we were in there the chick in the champagne room quoted me $500 an hour, I paid her $50 to get off my lap and made my way back to the hotel bar.  Maybe I was just a cheapo then, I guess it was more like 5 years ago.

Stoopid getting old!

 

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1 minute ago, Good Posting Judge said:

Cheapest room possible. I just need a bed and a door that locks and blackout shades. Shower is good too I guess.

Yeah, you say that until one time you go there for March Madness with your buddy just assuming you can find something cheap on priceline because you don't want to pay for a room when you take the red eye in and land at 2 am.

But you forget you are too old to operate in public without sleep and the only room you can book is someplace around the corner from the strip and then you don't spend anytime sleeping because you wonder when they are going to come to rob you and also if that giant stain in the bathtub is from actual human body or just poop.

:D

 

2nd cheapest......yeah I can get behind that idea.

 

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Also all the chicks sitting at the bar at the Hard Rock are on the clock and you can just pay them to back to your suite to party instead of being nice to them or answering questions.  I assume anything in Vegas is going to come at a price.  We are gentlemen and nothing crazy but one negotiation went pretty much like this:  "Nothing too demeaning or graphic, but I just don't want to hear the word "no" for the next 4 hours."  That was like $200 an escort.  Value.
 

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Alton Meeks -300 is an absolute lock tomorrow night on Tuesday Night Contenders, and I can't remember the last time I used that term.  Will not be a competitive fight.

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1 hour ago, hooter311 said:

Yeah, you say that until one time you go there for March Madness with your buddy just assuming you can find something cheap on priceline because you don't want to pay for a room when you take the red eye in and land at 2 am.

But you forget you are too old to operate in public without sleep and the only room you can book is someplace around the corner from the strip and then you don't spend anytime sleeping because you wonder when they are going to come to rob you and also if that giant stain in the bathtub is from actual human body or just poop.

:D

 

2nd cheapest......yeah I can get behind that idea.

 

Reminds me of when we went for my buddy’s younger brothers bachelor party.  Bachelor and his friends are about 10 years younger, so a bunch of them stayed at the off strip Westin to save money

we went back there at the end of the night to smoke (not really in my wheelhouse anymore) and we were pretty wasted.  Buddy was in no shape to walk back or cab to planet Hollywood so called his brother and told him we had to crash there (I may have told this story before, it’s the one where we did the ice bucket challenge on the roof and had a waterfall coming down the stairs)

he immediately passed out but I was wide awake. We went down to the casino floor and it was dead (probably around 3 AM).  I made the lady open up the roulette table and then I only played like $10 worth of single spin bets.  They were so pissed :lmao:

 

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More on Meeks tomorrow:

An Olympic caliber Greco Roman wrestler that will have about a 50 lb weight advantage tomorrow night. Opponent lost last 4 amateur fights. Currently 4-0 as a pro but last was decision against guy 7-7, first 3 were KOs against a combined 2-10 record.

Also has college football experience playing weak side linebacker for Iowa State. Was pretty highly recruited out of high school and at one time held a state record in Florida for completions in a game as a QB. Meeks 6-0 as pro/amateur and last 5 haven't lasted 2 minutes.

Was wrestling sparring partner for Odezmir leading up to his championship bout with Cormier. Has helped numerous other guys train for fights, mainly Alex Nicholson, so he has seen much more creative strikers than a guy spamming overhand rights.

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On 5/15/2019 at 6:02 PM, ChainsawU said:

Astros looking at a day off is really the only time they cooled off this season.

20 hours ago, ChainsawU said:

Getaway day for them has rendered them officially untrustworthy. Just the last game of the series in general this season, they'll just randomly lay down.

On the other hand,  Astros 20-3 SU in G1 of the series this season (1st MLB) - all three losses coming in the last week of April, and 13-0 SU L13 since the start of May..

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@OrangeFire_ With no DH and a ground ball pitcher on the mound, it's an unusual lineup that punts outfield defense. Bregman and Brantley are 1-2 in the order. Brantley is in RF. This is his first MLB start in RF. Reddick is the CF. He has played 38 games in his MLB career in CF, including 11 games there in 2011. He's has saved 5 fewer runs than average there.

I'm missing 4 games somewhere between now and 2009, but Reddick's team 17-17 SU and 27-7 O/U when he plays center field SDQL

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Castillo got a 1.87 home ERA this season. But since Hinch became manager of the Astros they been strong in G1 of the series, even versus dudes they've never seen before (25-2 SU L27 in G1 versus a pitcher that's never started against the Astros before). Gut feeling says that's who they were studying for yesterday was Castillo. Which means they totally ignored and didn't even bother to see who or what a "Trent Thornton" ever even was.. so yeah, Castillo is the reason we get the plus money, but fingers crossed 'Stros already got their plan in place to start the series strong (which explains yesterdays loss as the huge fave).

Astros +107

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3 hours ago, hooter311 said:

Yeah, you say that until one time you go there for March Madness with your buddy just assuming you can find something cheap on priceline because you don't want to pay for a room when you take the red eye in and land at 2 am.

But you forget you are too old to operate in public without sleep and the only room you can book is someplace around the corner from the strip and then you don't spend anytime sleeping because you wonder when they are going to come to rob you and also if that giant stain in the bathtub is from actual human body or just poop.

:D

 

2nd cheapest......yeah I can get behind that idea.

 

Oh man, yeah, I need to have a place there. Flying by the seat of one's pants in that hellhole is the nut low.

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@AstrosMatt Yasiel Puig is batting .353 all time versus Miley and is currently on a hot streak. None of the Astros have played against Castillo.

Hey GPJ I tried searching but can't find it. Didn't you say that back when you used to bet them that the h+r+rbi props, the sharp side was almost always on the under? I'd been waiting for a chance to thank you for that info. Tonight Puig is lined at the flat 2.0 on that prop, and I'm used to seeing 2½ on those all the time. Makes me think the over feels kinda trappy..

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11 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

 

Hey GPJ I tried searching but can't find it. Didn't you say that back when you used to bet them that the h+r+rbi props, the sharp side was almost always on the under? I'd been waiting for a chance to thank you for that info. Tonight Puig is lined at the flat 2.0 on that prop, and I'm used to seeing 2½ on those all the time. Makes me think the over feels kinda trappy..

Yeah they've adjusted the last couple years, and I honestly haven't even bothered with them since. Especially with no real outs to play them. But they were typically pass-or-under propositions. But when I was hitting them regularly, and I had at least quasi-logical projections for players, I'd see a clear over play maybe once every 2-3 months.

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Castillo might be done after this little rain delay. Twitter reporter said he'd gone to the bullpen with pitching coach. They're gonna have to pinch run for him because he was on first base when the delay started. Reds might have just wasted him on a three-inning start. I'm rolling the dice on more Astros and that Castillo doesn't return. Miley's coming back for sure. I see him warming up on TV.

Astros +120

eta: "One of those rare instances where both starting pitchers will return after the delay" #### <_<

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3 hours ago, facook said:

550

Mission accomplished.  -720 on 5d

 

Can hedge out for a profit now with +675 on Castro at BO.

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11 hours ago, hooter311 said:

Mission accomplished.  -720 on 5d

 

Can hedge out for a profit now with +675 on Castro at BO.

-900 on bookmaker, should have bet more :wall:

Wait hedge out? We're no longer friends

Edited by lumpy19
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1 hour ago, lumpy19 said:

-900 on bookmaker, should have bet more :wall:

Wait hedge out? We're no longer friends

I didn't hedge anything, only mentioned it for the risk impaired.

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Just watched Cole Calhoun's interview on MLB Network. I like Skaggs on 4 days rest. He's only made one start on 4 days this season - when they beat the Twins at Target - and the Angels have won 65% of his starts on 4 days rest in his career (compared to 46% on 5+ days). Calhoun was saying how they kinda hot with some dudes back in the lineup, and Skaggs basically saying they've got every nationality of Babe Ruth in the lineup. Weird to see Stroman as the home dog, but I'm doing it.

Angels -123

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Feels like Astros left a TON of dudes on base & RISP last night. They had Castillo on the ropes with a dude on 2nd and 3rd with only one out in the inning after the rain delay. Then they had the bases loaded, but that just meant the Reds could turn the double play, which they did. Astros third base coach actually f*cked up a little bit not sending Brantley home - was afraid that Puig had a big arm and would have thrown him out - but that's a chance I'd have taken with two outs and the ace on the mound, that would've potentially tied the game. Even as the public dog I feel like the Astros were right there the entire time. I had them last night for 8u parlayed with Meeks at -400 and it all went up in smoke, so close.

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Feels like ATL just manhandled the Phillies last series. I think Philly got SUPER lucky to win Nola's start - the one game of the series they did manage to win - by scoring 2 runs in the 9th off Luke Jackson with the blown save. Super lucky. The Braves are so hot right now. To put "how hot" into perspective, Rockies/Padres just combined for 92 runs in their series in Colorado - the most combined runs scored in a 4-game series EVER in the MLB. Even after that, Braves have still scored the most runs in June (124) compared to the Rockies who've scored the second-most in June (97). Do you think ATL might be a fun home dog to play tonight, even with Teheran's ERA being exactly 2 full runs better than his xFIP on Fangraphs right now..?

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21 hours ago, Good Posting Judge said:

Yeah they've adjusted the last couple years, and I honestly haven't even bothered with them since. Especially with no real outs to play them. But they were typically pass-or-under propositions. But when I was hitting them regularly, and I had at least quasi-logical projections for players, I'd see a clear over play maybe once every 2-3 months.

There's a lot more 1.5 and 2s than there used to be, but they're still profitable at Bovada (yes, I know I'm the only one not cut there).

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two more little things:

  1. Rangers most-profitable team in G2 this season, by a lot :moneybag:
  2. D-Backs most-profitable team to the over after a day off L4 seasons (although that's a high-### total tho & would rather be holding an 8.5 cheers bro) :oldunsure:
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1 hour ago, Frostillicus said:

There's a lot more 1.5 and 2s than there used to be, but they're still profitable at Bovada (yes, I know I'm the only one not cut there).

 

8 minutes ago, lumpy19 said:

Wow I can't believe you haven't been cut there, what a square

In news that will shock absolutely nobody, I also am not cut there (at least not all the way).

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