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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!!


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Just watched Cole Calhoun's interview on MLB Network. I like Skaggs on 4 days rest. He's only made one start on 4 days this season - when they beat the Twins at Target - and the Angels have won 65% of his starts on 4 days rest in his career (compared to 46% on 5+ days). Calhoun was saying how they kinda hot with some dudes back in the lineup, and Skaggs basically saying they've got every nationality of Babe Ruth in the lineup. Weird to see Stroman as the home dog, but I'm doing it.

Angels -123

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Home.  Some 40 hours later and the kid is basically back to normal.  Amazing.  She'll move up to Orlando for a few months for the radiation treatment with the Mrssus but for her the scary part is over

Well dudes, interesting update!  My wife and daughter surprised me today, told me they were a comin home 10 days early and would be here within the hour.  The tumor is now so small that he wants to ho

Well dudes, we're not sure what is next....but tonight Izzy takes her last chemotherapy treatment.  We'll go up in a few weeks to take a peek in her skull to see 'sup...but for tonight - we celebrate.

Feels like Astros left a TON of dudes on base & RISP last night. They had Castillo on the ropes with a dude on 2nd and 3rd with only one out in the inning after the rain delay. Then they had the bases loaded, but that just meant the Reds could turn the double play, which they did. Astros third base coach actually f*cked up a little bit not sending Brantley home - was afraid that Puig had a big arm and would have thrown him out - but that's a chance I'd have taken with two outs and the ace on the mound, that would've potentially tied the game. Even as the public dog I feel like the Astros were right there the entire time. I had them last night for 8u parlayed with Meeks at -400 and it all went up in smoke, so close.

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Feels like ATL just manhandled the Phillies last series. I think Philly got SUPER lucky to win Nola's start - the one game of the series they did manage to win - by scoring 2 runs in the 9th off Luke Jackson with the blown save. Super lucky. The Braves are so hot right now. To put "how hot" into perspective, Rockies/Padres just combined for 92 runs in their series in Colorado - the most combined runs scored in a 4-game series EVER in the MLB. Even after that, Braves have still scored the most runs in June (124) compared to the Rockies who've scored the second-most in June (97). Do you think ATL might be a fun home dog to play tonight, even with Teheran's ERA being exactly 2 full runs better than his xFIP on Fangraphs right now..?

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21 hours ago, Good Posting Judge said:

Yeah they've adjusted the last couple years, and I honestly haven't even bothered with them since. Especially with no real outs to play them. But they were typically pass-or-under propositions. But when I was hitting them regularly, and I had at least quasi-logical projections for players, I'd see a clear over play maybe once every 2-3 months.

There's a lot more 1.5 and 2s than there used to be, but they're still profitable at Bovada (yes, I know I'm the only one not cut there).

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two more little things:

  1. Rangers most-profitable team in G2 this season, by a lot :moneybag:
  2. D-Backs most-profitable team to the over after a day off L4 seasons (although that's a high-### total tho & would rather be holding an 8.5 cheers bro) :oldunsure:
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1 hour ago, Frostillicus said:

There's a lot more 1.5 and 2s than there used to be, but they're still profitable at Bovada (yes, I know I'm the only one not cut there).

Wow I can't believe you haven't been cut there, what a square

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1 hour ago, Frostillicus said:

There's a lot more 1.5 and 2s than there used to be, but they're still profitable at Bovada (yes, I know I'm the only one not cut there).

 

8 minutes ago, lumpy19 said:

Wow I can't believe you haven't been cut there, what a square

In news that will shock absolutely nobody, I also am not cut there (at least not all the way).

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Yo this kid in the stands in Atlanta just got himself on Intentional Talk tomorrow - I bet you. Maybe even ESPN. Little dude made a textbook catch in the stands. Crowd was like, "OOOOH," announcers were giving him props, then all the sudden kid reaches into his bag and switches his Mets cap into a Braves cap. It was pretty crucial. Not sure if he can hit, but I think the M's should probably give him a look strictly based on defense alone.

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1 hour ago, hooter311 said:

I feel terrible, sorry fellas.

That was truly one of the dumbest moments of my adult life.

The cruddy thing is, this could keep you from posting future winners.  I know Goo has mentioned in the past he posts less (or not at all) because posting a loser we tail hurts WAY more than posting winner.  Crap happens.  Frankly, those of us who tailed should have just stayed away when you used the word "lock".  :)  Seriously, though, ESS happens.  Don't let it keep you from being you hoot.  I for one have no hard feelings.  Appreciate you posting your honest opinions.

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1 hour ago, facook said:

The cruddy thing is, this could keep you from posting future winners.  I know Goo has mentioned in the past he posts less (or not at all) because posting a loser we tail hurts WAY more than posting winner.  Crap happens.  Frankly, those of us who tailed should have just stayed away when you used the word "lock".  :)  Seriously, though, ESS happens.  Don't let it keep you from being you hoot.  I for one have no hard feelings.  Appreciate you posting your honest opinions.

Yeah we've all been there. Losing bets are part of the game, only a child would think otherwise.

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9 hours ago, hooter311 said:

I feel terrible, sorry fellas.

That was truly one of the dumbest moments of my adult life.

Got my money in at -300 and it closed -900, might be the best CLV I've ever achieved, don't apologize.

 

Should have hedged

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15 hours ago, facook said:

The cruddy thing is, this could keep you from posting future winners.  I know Goo has mentioned in the past he posts less (or not at all) because posting a loser we tail hurts WAY more than posting winner.  Crap happens.  Frankly, those of us who tailed should have just stayed away when you used the word "lock".  :)  Seriously, though, ESS happens.  Don't let it keep you from being you hoot.  I for one have no hard feelings.  Appreciate you posting your honest opinions.

I'm just going to go back to my personal rule of not posting anything above -200.  I thought I was smarter than I was, can't even remember the last time I backed someone at that number, but I'm sure they lost too, which is why I don't do it.  

Had extensive knowledge of Meeks, his camp, and background.  He played same position as my cousin at Iowa State when they were there together.  So I wasn't just grasping at straws.  Pretty sure the money backing me was mostly responsible for the line movement, should have trusted the oddsmakers more.

Between myself and guys I know I can count with my fingers, we netted close to a 6 figure loss yesterday.  Way too early in the week for that.

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6 hours ago, lumpy19 said:

Got my money in at -300 and it closed -900, might be the best CLV I've ever achieved, don't apologize.

 

Should have hedged

Its just more fun to be smart, I don't mind losing my money, I'm a gambler.  But I can't stand giving bad advice, I won't make a habit of it, and I appreciate all the kind words.  We either win, or get smarter, I'll accept nothing less.

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1 hour ago, hooter311 said:

I'm just going to go back to my personal rule of not posting anything above -200.  I thought I was smarter than I was, can't even remember the last time I backed someone at that number, but I'm sure they lost too, which is why I don't do it.  

Had extensive knowledge of Meeks, his camp, and background.  He played same position as my cousin at Iowa State when they were there together.  So I wasn't just grasping at straws.  Pretty sure the money backing me was mostly responsible for the line movement, should have trusted the oddsmakers more.

Between myself and guys I know I can count with my fingers, we netted close to a 6 figure loss yesterday.  Way too early in the week for that.

I'd recommend not ignoring anything above -200, it's a mistake

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1 minute ago, lumpy19 said:

I'd recommend not ignoring anything above -200, it's a mistake

As always, I'll give the people what they want.  We'll get it back and then some.

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I'm in a beach house on Newport Beach. The woman was here when I got to her Air B&B. It smells like cats. Like, bad. I'm chromecasting MLB to her living room television. Pretty sure she totally lives here and I'm sleeping in the bed she slept in last night. Kind of feel like I should of given her some D before she left. She looked like she might need some. Just judging by the cat smell. I wonder when the last time a dude's been in here. Feels like I'm at my grandma's

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I think the Cubs and D-Backs were hung over from the road today yesterday. Really didn't have the balls to buy the White Sox yesterday, but had a hunch Cubs might fall flat. Think I'll back them tonight.

Cubs -137

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1 hour ago, facook said:

Giolito has been an auto bet for me for several weeks.  Was this morning as well.  Now I get the email that every tout on VSiN and ESPN is on them.  Surefire loser.  

well look what the cat drug in

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1 minute ago, ChainsawU said:

living room
bedroom
bathroom
pantry :yucky:

what the #### am I doing here? this cost me 5 bills for 2 nights?? place is THICK with cat smell. flight for Vegas leaves Friday morning. do I bail? do I just get a hotel tomorrow night after the conference?

This is quite a bit different then the pad Em and I had in Miami...

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51 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

I'm in a beach house on Newport Beach. The woman was here when I got to her Air B&B. It smells like cats. Like, bad. I'm chromecasting MLB to her living room television. Pretty sure she totally lives here and I'm sleeping in the bed she slept in last night. Kind of feel like I should of given her some D before she left. She looked like she might need some. Just judging by the cat smell. I wonder when the last time a dude's been in here. Feels like I'm at my grandma's

That sucks dude!  Bail and ask for a partial?  She knows she's pulling some crap and will probably be happy with anything.  Cut and run!

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2 hours ago, facook said:

Giolito has been an auto bet for me for several weeks.  Was this morning as well.  Now I get the email that every tout on VSiN and ESPN is on them.  Surefire loser.  

Shocker.  Loser.

 

22 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

living room
bedroom
bathroom
pantry :yucky:

what the #### am I doing here? this cost me 5 bills for 2 nights?? place is THICK with cat smell. flight for Vegas leaves Friday morning. do I bail? do I just get a hotel tomorrow night after the conference?

Dude.  The cat litter box is by the food.  Hump no one.  Get. OUT.

 

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12 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

Weird being in Cali seeing all the green medicinal stores. I guess it'll be that way in Vegas too.

Last time I was in Vegas was last March and the dispensaries were all off the strip.  Short cab ride.  Recommend getting vapes/edibles to be discreet in public.  I did smoke a blunt or two just wandering on the strip.  Got a few comments, but nobody told me to put it out.

Let me know if you need any strain advice.

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Second game of the season, coming off a loss, more rested team. On the flip side, opponent coming off the win -> which is probably where the value comes from. Double value. Wanted to bet Redblacks u28 (minimum u25), pass at u24½. Rolling the dice on the second-consecutive, non-divisional road game, which feels like a weird way to start the season..

Roughriders +170
Roughriders o20 -110

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Bud makes me paranoid. Used to smoke daily. Haven't even drank yet - gonna try and go the entire time without. I'm in more of a gym, tan, massage mindset. Then land back in ATX next week ready to blow two chicks' minds. They're already both texting me emojis of eggplants and #### late night.. gonna be real hard, so to speak, to pass up some $lut working at the bar tho.. Especially if she look me in the eye too long.

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If you have a slow local that Atlanta trade all but guarantees Hunter u5.5

 

ETA: also guarantees Garland o4.5 if you're local is super slow

 

ETA: NBA draft

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Man that frosh over 5.5 in top 10 bet was juicy....and Reddish just made it wet.  :banned: 

 

Also Reddish over 7.5 is sweet.  

 

Now let's get Nassir Little in next 2 picks, and Carson Edwards in the 1st round please.

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3 hours ago, ChainsawU said:

Bud makes me paranoid. Used to smoke daily. Haven't even drank yet - gonna try and go the entire time without. I'm in more of a gym, tan, massage mindset. Then land back in ATX next week ready to blow two chicks' minds. They're already both texting me emojis of eggplants and #### late night.. gonna be real hard, so to speak, to pass up some $lut working at the bar tho.. Especially if she look me in the eye too long.

You figure out what property that barmaid is gonna get railed on, Chain?

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Also KC F5 TT  :hifive:  bought an Amazon Fire stick, sparked up watching MLB casting onto this hotel TV. Found a Planet Fitness here. And I guess (?) my membership works in California. I didn't have my bar code, but checked in with my phone number. Worked out, tanned, and promptly forgot where I was and walked directly into the women's locker room. :bag: They all look the same, and there's no doors! Took my shirt off, thought to myself "DAMN this men's locker room smells AMAZING," :shock: and then promptly walked out like :whistle: About to do my gym laundry at this hotel for a dollar. Flight leaves 11AM to Vegas I think.

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11 minutes ago, facook said:

Man that frosh over 5.5 in top 10 bet was juicy....and Reddish just made it wet.  :banned: 

 

Also Reddish over 7.5 is sweet.  

 

Now let's get Nassir Little in next 2 picks, and Carson Edwards in the 1st round please.

Poop

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2 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

Also KC F5 TT  :hifive:  bought an Amazon Fire stick, sparked up watching MLB casting onto this hotel TV. Found a Planet Fitness here. And I guess (?) my membership works in California. I didn't have my bar code, but checked in with my phone number. Worked out, tanned, and promptly forgot where I was and walked directly into the women's locker room. :bag: They all look the same, and there's no doors! Took my shirt off, thought to myself "DAMN this men's locker room smells AMAZING," :shock: and then promptly walked out like :whistle: About to do my gym laundry at this hotel for a dollar. Flight leaves 11AM to Vegas I think.

How'd the new business meeting go?

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3 minutes ago, facook said:

How'd the new business meeting go?

REALLY well. Totally opposite energy today than the whole cat ordeal yesterday. Met in person the man I've been talking to (kinda stringing along) via email the L2 years. He was VERY surprised to see me, but knew I was coming before I got there - so I got an incredible start, on the right foot with him immediately. Turned out he was the MAN - the actual dude doing today's presentation, and I had his back during the Q&A - asked some good questions, showed off my business education, and really participated positively overall throughout the whole thing. Learned a lot and got exactly what I wanted/needed. Couldn't have done better. I shined bro

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Rays been kinda falling off lately. Started the road trip by getting swept by the division rival, now fly four time zones away to play a night game on no rest. And A's just saw Morton 10 days ago. Athletics have been beating up on the Orioles and M's L6 days at home.. anything?

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Rays -102
Over 7 -135

they're ranked 4th in the power rankings league-wide. think they sneak one in then jet lag sneaks in tomorrow. total's down an entire run from open, seems fishy

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