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Draftkings Week 14 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter KarmaPolice
- Start date
Ebaker5
Footballguy
That's the only reason I am rolling Gurley out. Hoping they will ride the run and let Goff get comfortable running the offense.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Anybody else getting an odd message on DK tonight? Trying to enter some Thurs-Mon LUs and it won't let me. Just puts up a message "The action you are attempting cannot be completed because you are in a restricted location". I checked and it lets me on my phone, but that is a pain in the ###.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Looks like it's something with Firefox and DK not communicating so it can't verify my location or some nonsense.
jimmyjavelin
Footballguy
hot damn, DK doesnt play around lol.
I wish Carr or Smith would make a deposit in this game...this game is uninspiring. Kinda glad I faded my Thur exposure.
I wish Carr or Smith would make a deposit in this game...this game is uninspiring. Kinda glad I faded my Thur exposure.
Ebaker5
Footballguy
Nope, told me that deposits CANNOT be made on cards without the DK members name on it. Had to send copies of MY DL, wifes DL and a current utility bill to get it unlocked. Lost ALL of my Thursday night slates. I was fading the games but wanted to take advantage of the guys playing guys from the KC/Oak rosters.jimmyjavelin said:
jimmyjavelin
Footballguy
Ahh, I'm sorry to hear that brother. Its honestly probably a blessing in disguise. Tyreek looks to be in for a monster night.
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I forgot that I had some sort of program that was running in the background that scrambled where I was in case I felt like getting a torrent of something. I guess DK didn't like me verifying that I was from WI but the computer telling them I was in Bolivia or some ####.
Anyway, I was trying to do similar to Ebaker and get in tonight's slate, but fade it. Only got 3 low entry LUs in on my phone earlier.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
I do think the pricing is tighter than normal due to them having a big $10M live final this week. For whatever reason, pricing seems tighter in those weeks (for example, the big bumps in Bengals prices due to the matchup).
My guess is that we are going to see some value open up at WR by the end of the week and that people are going to gravitate towards the stud RB lineups in double ups again. For example, if Julio and Sanu are out, I think Gabriel gets really popular and you maybe even consider doubling up with Alrdrick Robinson or Justin Hardy because there will be so many targets to go around.
Lineup like this is intriguing:
Cousins
DJ, Bell, Hill
Gabriel, Meredith, Lee
Delanie, Colts
Tyler Lockett, Brian Quick and Robby Anderson also dirt cheap.
Pretty sure I like paying up for DJ. Tougher matchup for Bell so might not be worth the risky cheap WRs just to squeeze him in. That will be the big decision for me this week probably in terms of roster construction.
My guess is that we are going to see some value open up at WR by the end of the week and that people are going to gravitate towards the stud RB lineups in double ups again. For example, if Julio and Sanu are out, I think Gabriel gets really popular and you maybe even consider doubling up with Alrdrick Robinson or Justin Hardy because there will be so many targets to go around.
Lineup like this is intriguing:
Cousins
DJ, Bell, Hill
Gabriel, Meredith, Lee
Delanie, Colts
Tyler Lockett, Brian Quick and Robby Anderson also dirt cheap.
Pretty sure I like paying up for DJ. Tougher matchup for Bell so might not be worth the risky cheap WRs just to squeeze him in. That will be the big decision for me this week probably in terms of roster construction.
Ebaker5
Footballguy
same... got only 3 for tonight's slate.
I forgot that I had some sort of program that was running in the background that scrambled where I was in case I felt like getting a torrent of something. I guess DK didn't like me verifying that I was from WI but the computer telling them I was in Bolivia or some ####.
Anyway, I was trying to do similar to Ebaker and get in tonight's slate, but fade it. Only got 3 low entry LUs in on my phone earlier.
sucks lol
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Any other Rbs you like this week? I keep coming back to D.Murry and his price at 7000. That 2000 savings from Bell could get the WRs looking more like Baldwin+Sanders+Crowder or something on those lines.
Dang IVC keeps popping McKinnon and Crowell at me
Dan Hindery
Moderator
I'm intrigued by Devonta Freeman at $6,100. Still want to see who all ends up being active for Atlanta at WR, but Freeman has been good in recent weeks and could see a bunch of targets if the top 2 WRs are out. If you agree with Vegas having ATL as 6-point road favorites, he makes sense as a mid-priced guy. More I look at it, I think I'll end up liking him over Jeremy Hill due to his receiving usage in that price range. But getting up to Murray for just $900 more is the better play. You can also go all the way down to Rob Kelley at $4,200.
In terms of whether Bell's worth it as RB2 vs. somebody like Murray, I am leaning towards thinking he is. The IVC has Bell outscoring Murray 25.7 to 19.7. Getting an extra 6 points for $2k is nice bang for your buck. We have Gabriel at 12.4 for $4,300. If you used the 2k savings to upgrade, you'd need 18.4 points from your $6,300 WR. We only have 5 WRs projected for that many points this week.
It's really not that crazy to consider playing DJ, Bell and Murray. Just go all in on RBs. The best of my 3 cash lineups last week hit 180 with three stud RBs and DGB, Mitchell and Boldin at WR.
This week, you could go:
Cousins
DJ, Bell, Murray
Gabriel, Mitchell, R. Anderson
Witten
Falcons
I'm still at the point of the week where I'm building different lineups in the IVC, cutting and pasting them into an Excel spreadsheet and then I go back later (probably Saturday night this week) and start really comparing the lineups head to head against each other and trying to rank them. This one maybe doesn't look great on paper, but I think when I start plugging in points and projected targets/yards/TDs for the lineup as a whole, it'll come out near the top.
podunker
Footballguy
i really like the Stud RB theory...........may try it myself
I am really trying to figure out if Ryan Mathews is healthy or not. If he is, I love him against the Redskins rush defense. I think the Eagle will pound the ball with him like they did before. They don't want to get in a shootout with Cousins.
I am really trying to figure out if Ryan Mathews is healthy or not. If he is, I love him against the Redskins rush defense. I think the Eagle will pound the ball with him like they did before. They don't want to get in a shootout with Cousins.
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
@Dan Hindery
Thanks again for the input. At least I know I am on the right track with the players I am looking at and my thoughts on attacking this. I usually go this route, but at the start of the week I liked the WRs less, but as I stare at them and injuries come into play, I think the lower guys like Gabriel and Anderson look better and better. Actually the one slot I am having trouble with is the D this week. Don't like many, and DK's pricing is hard for them. Keep thinking about punting with TB at home on the cheap, or maybe Indy.
If I could get your opinon or anybody else's - how crazy is a 2 TE formation for cash? One LU that I came up with was something like:
Cousins - Bell/DJ - Nelson/Sanders/R.Anderson - Witten - L.Green - TB.
Obviously I like the upgrade in WRs, but is that worth it? Or if I went this route is it just better to throw a guy like McKinnon/Asiata or Crowell (maybe D.Lewis) in that flex spot? Maybe not as sexy, but for cash I would assume that the increase in touches those guys would get might be the better option vs. the handful of targets Green might get?
Ebaker5
Footballguy
Personally I like Green in the flex. Pitt uses him as a BIG slot as well as a TE so you get the best of both worlds. Add in that Buff is ranked like 28th in the league against the TE, it's a win-win. Witten should be a solid floor guy against the Giants.
Kicking myself for not going with my gut and picking up Hill from KC last night.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I didn't mind it too, and nothing else I figured he would be fairly chalky at that price as well. I am currently going between that LU I posted and this one:Ebaker5 said:
Cousins
Bell/DJ
Britt/Garcon/R.Anderson
Witten
D.Murray
TB
I might just roll with both of them and split it up, but am open to opinions as always. In this one I could also jump up to Luck, turn Britt to Gabriel and maybe have a slight bump in D - like Indy maybe?
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Never done this before, but it's probably the closest I will get to feeling like a high roller. Instead of stressing over my 3-4 $3 gpp entries. I am going to just put in 40 entries into the $.25 gpp. Figure that way, I can 1. Have more fun and stop stressing over every LU since I know I will have a bunch. and 2. Maybe get a better idea of if I am any good at gpp LUs, or at least maybe get a better sense of what style works for me.
Ebaker5
Footballguy
Are all of your entries GPP or are these just your GPP and you already have your cash LU's decided?
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I will do cash lineups seperately. Think I have it narrowed down more but might end up with 2 LUs. Thinking about going with Luck in the dome, but still like the Cousins one too
chasyone
Footballguy
Which is better stack for cash and GPP? Cousins/Crowder, Brady/Edelman, Luck/Hilton, Eli/Odell
Cousin/Crowder LU
Cousins
Murray, Ware
Crowder, Gabriel, T. Williams
Graham
Freeman
Jax
Brady/Edelman LU
Brady
Murray, Ware
Edelman, Nelson, R. Anderson
Graham
Gurley
Jax
Luck/Hilton LU
Luck
Murray, Ware
Hilton, D. Thomas, R. Anderson
Graham
Gurley
Jax
Eli/Odell LU
Eli
Murray, Ware
Odell, T. William, R. Anderson
Graham
Freeman
Jax
Cousin/Crowder LU
Cousins
Murray, Ware
Crowder, Gabriel, T. Williams
Graham
Freeman
Jax
Brady/Edelman LU
Brady
Murray, Ware
Edelman, Nelson, R. Anderson
Graham
Gurley
Jax
Luck/Hilton LU
Luck
Murray, Ware
Hilton, D. Thomas, R. Anderson
Graham
Gurley
Jax
Eli/Odell LU
Eli
Murray, Ware
Odell, T. William, R. Anderson
Graham
Freeman
Jax
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Are these Thurs - Mon LUs that you are tweaking? I assume so because you are asking about Brady as well.
Honestly, this is a hard question. Just seeing the pairs you asked about, I would say that Brady/Edelman might be the "most cash" combo just because of the # of targets I would guess that Edelman gets on Monday. I would rank Luck close behind and Cousins 3rd. I think the most gpp is probably Eli/OBJ. That said, there are a couple more observations:
1. In that Brady stack you have what I think might be one of the most gpp players you have in all of your LUs. We have seen his floor, and there is a decent chance Atl jumps on them early and puts the game script in Goff's hands.
2. If you already had Ware playing, we know that he didn't have a great game and put up only 7 points. Not sure that means you need to push it all the way to gpp mode, but you might need slightly more boom/bust to make up those points (for cash we would have been looking for about 18-19 pts from Ware at his salary.
Sorry for the rambling, as I am not sure where that leaves us or what I would do. I guess I like Murray/Freeman a bit more than Murray/Gurley, so I would lean towards one of those LUs myself. Interested to hear other opinions too.
Ebaker5
Footballguy
TBH, I think all of them are solid stacks. If I had to rate them they would fall like this-
1. Cousins/Crowder - Philly was hot on D to start the year. However, they have been slipping over the last few weeks. Something is missing, maybe it's the offense is putting them on the field TOO much.Whatever it is... I like it. Cousins is hot and the game is currently sitting at a 46.5 o/u for score according to Vegas. Ill take it.
2. Luck/Hilton - Lucks second game back since his concussion against a rival at home.... NEED I say more? I will anyway. Currently Hou is ranked 14th in the league defending the pass and they are ranked 22nd in the league against the #1WR on teams allowing 78 yd/g and 10.1 pa/g (passes per game to this receiver). So without a TD on average they are allowing 12.8 Fantasy points per game to the #1 WR on the opposing team. That's a solid floor IMO.
3. Brady/Edelman- They are third simply because of how strong Baltimore is on defense. Bal is ranked 5th against the pass and 1st against the run. Where you beat Baltimore is Throwing to the RB where they rank 22nd in the league. Bennett will be locked down, Bal is ranked #1 against TE's. Against the #1 WR on teams, Bal is ranked 18th allowing 75.1 yd/g and 8.4 pa/g. Now that is a solid floor, however, I see this game as a low scoring affair. Maybe 21-7 or something along those lines with Blount getting a GL TD or 2.
4. Eli/Odell- Dal @ NYG is going to be a great game. However, I feel like the Dal offense is going to keep the NYG offense off the field. Dal knows their D is not that great, so ball control will be key in this game. This would be my GPP stack if I had to pick one. IF the NYG can slow down ZEKE and DAK, Eli and Odell are facing the 27th ranked pass D that allows 8.9 pa/g and 67.4 yd/g to the #1 wr on the opposing team. Those numbers may not look great, but when you look at how Dal stacks up against the #2 and #3 WR on opposing teams, the numbers are similar to what is allowed to the #1 WR. I say that because the NYG are great at getting Odell in the slot or playing him in the 1,2 or 3 position in trips. They will find a way to get him targets. BUT all of that is dependent on their D stopping ZEKE and DAK.
Hope this helps!
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chasyone
Footballguy
Yes this helps. I had Ware in my original LU and it didn't go so hot so I had to fool around with it and make sure I got the right guys in there. I replaced Forte with Murray and just tried different QB/WR stacks. The Cousins/Crowder stack was my original stack. Thanks again
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Yep, just like last week a couple of the chalky plays are looking like crap and holding my teams down. Went with Luck and Cousins this week. Just like I was saying what could go wrong with Brees at home. What could go wrong with Luck avoiding weather vs. the lowly Texans? Maybe it just comes back to the old strategy of avoiding division games when you can?
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
As I type that Cousins hits D.Jax for the long TD!!
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
That Luck/Hilton combo turned out alright.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Looked at next week:
DJ at 10100 vs. NO
Bell at 9800 vs. Cinc
DJ at 10100 vs. NO
Bell at 9800 vs. Cinc
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I think I will end up slight over 2x for the week. Had Bell/DJ in both cash games, so of course Bell put a lot of people over the edge.
My main slate LU scored 165.44: Luck - Bell/DJ - R.Anderson/Ginn/Kearse - Brate - D.Murray - Atl Again, a 3 stud RB LU doing well. Atl D was a huge lucky stab at a D. Whiffed big on Kearse and Ginn, but went cheap and both had been seeing targets.
My Sun -Mon Lu is at 159.06 with Edelman still to play: Cousins - DJ/Bell - Edelman/Sanders/R.Anderson - Green - Witten - TB. Of course Sanders was huge, and TB was a good cheap D. 2 TEs wasn't horrible, but I thought one or both would do better.
Didn't get to 50 entries for the $.25 gpps, but did 27. I think 70% cashed. Best one scored 190 (I think that's my highest total so far on DK?): Wentz - Bell/DJ - Garcon/D.Jax/J.Matthews - Witten - Hill - TB. Had a handful of gpps with either Wentz and Cousins with those 3WRs as a game stack that were at the top. I had some good ideas, but not on the same team for huge points, and had some bad reads, mainly Freeman, the SD/Car game, R.Wilson, and the NO/TB game.
Let's get ready for another interesting week. Some big jumps for some of the player that were too cheap this week and a slate of games that at first glance look pretty brutal.
My main slate LU scored 165.44: Luck - Bell/DJ - R.Anderson/Ginn/Kearse - Brate - D.Murray - Atl Again, a 3 stud RB LU doing well. Atl D was a huge lucky stab at a D. Whiffed big on Kearse and Ginn, but went cheap and both had been seeing targets.
My Sun -Mon Lu is at 159.06 with Edelman still to play: Cousins - DJ/Bell - Edelman/Sanders/R.Anderson - Green - Witten - TB. Of course Sanders was huge, and TB was a good cheap D. 2 TEs wasn't horrible, but I thought one or both would do better.
Didn't get to 50 entries for the $.25 gpps, but did 27. I think 70% cashed. Best one scored 190 (I think that's my highest total so far on DK?): Wentz - Bell/DJ - Garcon/D.Jax/J.Matthews - Witten - Hill - TB. Had a handful of gpps with either Wentz and Cousins with those 3WRs as a game stack that were at the top. I had some good ideas, but not on the same team for huge points, and had some bad reads, mainly Freeman, the SD/Car game, R.Wilson, and the NO/TB game.
Let's get ready for another interesting week. Some big jumps for some of the player that were too cheap this week and a slate of games that at first glance look pretty brutal.
podunker
Footballguy
My best LU of 3 hit 174 and helped me win money for the week. Have Edel and Mitchell still going, but don't think either of other 2 LU can reach cash value. My GPP entries helped me out a little. Gordon, Freeman, and Evans killed me this week overall. The only good calls I made was Simian and the Denver WR's.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I think it is a little rough - especially the 1pm games. I think all are out in the cold or crap games in a dome - Jax @ Houst? :X
I will post more thoughts, but I was already able to assemble a LU with Rodgers (assuming he's good to go), Bell, and DJ. Also can pair that with a D I like - probably NYG or KC? These get rough when you try to get that 3rd stud in there like McCoy or Zeke, but it's doable with those two again with basically the QB of your choice.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
My main GPP lineup (Cousins-DJax stack) survived a goose egg from Vance McDonald to put up 192 and win a couple of tickets to the high-roller Christmas weekend tourney. Need 20 points from Mitchell tonight to score another one. Longshot, but close enough to make for nervous watching tonight.
chasyone
Footballguy
Me too. I won my league 4 times in he first 9 weeks and haven't came close since. I would like to win at least one of these last 3 weeks
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
We need to get everybody winning the last couple weeks to end the year. Was this the LU you used everywhere:?chasyone said:
Cousins
Murray, Ware
Crowder, Gabriel, T. Williams
Graham
Freeman
Jax
