I see it as a Melvin Gordon situation. Gordon came in to the Chargers as the 2 down guy because Danny Woodhead was there and was extremely effective in that facet of the game. Gordon only caught 22 passes in 4 years of college but as we know now, had the skillset to excel in the passing game. I feel Guice's situation is similar both in terms what his college team asked of him and in terms of what the depth chart looks like in NFL. Even right down to the fact that Thompson seems to always be dinged up like Woodhead was in his later years. Hoping and anticipating Guice becoming the 3rd down guy eventually is projecting out and going out on a limb, I will grant that, but the same can be said of about 5 of the other 7 top backs.Good post. It's nice to see where people are coming from. I guess what's turning me off is Guice was right away labeled as a 1-2 down guy, and Thompson being the guy in on third/passing downs. Thompson is still fairly young (27) and injury prone yes, but effective catching the ball.
Guice seems to have the tools to be a 3 down back, and maybe someday he will be one, but it was concerning that Thompson was right away labeled their third down guy. I guess things can always change.
I was down on Penny as well on draft day. I thought it was funny that Seattle picked him round 1, but I don't do scouting for a living, and Seattle has done pretty well in the drafting department so I figured they must know what they're doing. But I agree, he came from a school that isn't really notable for sending players to the NFL for heavy success.
I own 1.2 and am trying to make sense of Guice vs Penny vs Michel. FBGs has Guice as 1.5. According to Hinderly on 5/2/18:
Second for me.Curious what about Guice makes people have him as the 2nd or 3rd RB off the board in rookie drafts?
Fair enough, I was pretty much a true split for receiving work in Denver last year so I kind of threw it out but his usage there is something to watch. Elway totally has no clue and I’m not sure Vance Joseph does either. They completely misused CJA last year for whatever reason, almost like they didn’t want him to be the lead guy and wouldn’t give him a shot to carry the team. Hopefully hand picking Freeman will make that situation betterNice post @gabes1919 I agree with most of what you said.
I don't think Freeman gets a pass though as Booker has been a pretty effective receiving RB and in my view has more feature RB ability than guys like Charles Sims.
Elway doesn't know what he is talking about. He thinks Freeman is a power RB.
He broke his back and tore his ACL in college as well. Also didn't he tear his labrum twice?Chris Thompson is "injury prone" now?
a torn labrum 5 seasons ago and a broken leg last year....
Maybe we disagree on this point, but IMO, that term is rarely used the way it should be. I feel its inaccurate and being applied to something it shouldnt be because we dont have a name for it that depicts the situation more correctly. Nobody is really "prone" to these injuries. It's a similar situation to Dion Lewis, whether its recency bias, theyre parroting someone else idk, but he, as someone who has been injured multiple times, is being labled as injury prone. Its simply untrue.He broke his back and tore his ACL in college as well. Also didn't he tear his labrum twice?
2011: Broken back, out for season
2012: Torn ACL, out for season
2013: Torn labrum, out for season
2014: Played 2 games, 9 total touches
2015: Torn labrum, out for season
2016: Healthy!
2017: Broken fibula, out for season
So 5 season ending injuries in 7 years for a guy that typically only touches the ball a max of 120 times/year. And in one of the two years where he didn't have a major, season ending injury, he basically didn't play.
Dude!Maybe we disagree on this point, but IMO, that term is rarely used the way it should be. I feel its inaccurate and being applied to something it shouldnt be because we dont have a name for it that depicts the situation more correctly. Nobody is really "prone" to these injuries. It's a similar situation to Dion Lewis, whether its recency bias, theyre parroting someone else idk, but he, as someone who has been injured multiple times, is being labled as injury prone. Its simply untrue.
I feel the term is better used to describe guys who have re occurring soft tissue issues, lower leg, concussion history, stuff like that. I know concussions sort of come with football too, like ACL injuries, but the studies seem to point to them being easier to get, as you suffer more of them.
is this like a "dude, i think i agree with you!"Dude!
Tex
Unlucky?The time for a newly named injury descriptive term is now!
It basically is that, right?Unlucky?
From a medical perspective, I hate the term "fast healer" or "slow healer." No one heals faster or slower. Everyone heals at the same pace. If you truly are a fast healer you are using illegal or legal supplements to accelerate the natural healing process.It basically is that, right?
I mean, he is playing a game where huge men have to hit him on every play. The activity itself is whats causing injuries like those. So people are willingly putting themselves in the situation that increases the odds of those injuries. Some people get hurt, some people never get hurt seriously. So what are the factors that make this happen?
- playing professional football
- playing a position that gets beaten up for a living
- size
Out of all of these the only thing that an NFL RB will have much control over is their size.
Chris Thompson and Dion fall into a category where they are on the smaller end of the spectrum, maybe this is the thing to focus on? Maybe smaller guys are slightly more inclined to encountering these major structural type injuries? Broken leg, arm, shoulder, ribs etc? It makes sense on the surface (smaller is weaker, or less durable) but Im not sure if there is data to back that theory up. Obviously all RBs are capable of having these injuries, and they do happen. But is it less often?
Is there some sort of data to back up "size adjusted injury risk"? How much would overall usage of the player multiply this risk? Now im curious
Who does all the BMI related stuff for rookies? Maybe we can chart some injuries and compare them to position and BMI?
I like this, it mostly makes sense to me. I am obv no doctor.From a medical perspective, I hate the term "fast healer" or "slow healer." No one heals faster or slower. Everyone heals at the same pace. If you truly are a fast healer you are using illegal or legal supplements to accelerate the natural healing process.
I feel the term "injury prone" is over-used. If a guy has a fluke injury and breaks his leg, that's not the same as a guy who is prone to rotator cuff or labral injuries because of scapular dyskinesis. Although one could argue frequent broken bones could be a sign of underlying issues. A broken back is often the result of poor core stability. A broken fibula, eh more of a fluke.
I've had this debate before, possibly iwth you even, that there are people who physically can be more prone to injuries than others in the same profession, putting the same demands on the body. Consider this: we all have two eyes, ears, a nose, mouth etc. But we all look different on the outside. Similarly, we all have the same inside body parts but we all look different on the inside as well. If you take an age-matched male and him and I go through a motion analysis test, you are likely to find that I may be at a higher risk of a left ACL tear than the age-matched male due to weaknesses, bone structure, movement patterns, etc. Genetics play a major factor, as does previous experiences with injury. I can sprain my ankle badly once. It will not go back to 100%. I am now prone to more ankle sprains. This is also thought to be true about concussions but it's a terrible misconception. Concussions are highly likely to reoccur 10-14 days after the first. You are at no greater risk for a concussion after recovery than you were prior to your first concussion. Concussions are mostly the result of your style of play, position of choice, and how you are used (over the middle WR vs a guy who runs fly patterns all game).
Looking at Thompson's injury patterns, I would say he is at risk for back, shoulder, and knee problems. ACL tear is a good possibility on his "healthy" side if his first ACL tear was non-contact. That's frequently an anatomical issue if there was no contact to facilitate the tear. I would put Thompson in the "higher risk" category for injuries given his history listed above, especially the types of injuries he has sustained.
BeGal, gave you a legitimate answer yet you still disagree. He might or might not be “prone” but his point is that he keeps missing time do to his injuries and he provides you with the injuries and the years to back up his comments. CT is a JAG anyway. Lolis this like a "dude, i think i agree with you!"
or a "dude, you're a moron!"
ha, its cool either way, im happy to debate it. The time for a newly named injury descriptive term is now!
I don’t understand how you can say with authority:From a medical perspective, I hate the term "fast healer" or "slow healer." No one heals faster or slower. Everyone heals at the same pace. If you truly are a fast healer you are using illegal or legal supplements to accelerate the natural healing process.
I feel the term "injury prone" is over-used. If a guy has a fluke injury and breaks his leg, that's not the same as a guy who is prone to rotator cuff or labral injuries because of scapular dyskinesis. Although one could argue frequent broken bones could be a sign of underlying issues. A broken back is often the result of poor core stability. A broken fibula, eh more of a fluke.
I've had this debate before, possibly iwth you even, that there are people who physically can be more prone to injuries than others in the same profession, putting the same demands on the body. Consider this: we all have two eyes, ears, a nose, mouth etc. But we all look different on the outside. Similarly, we all have the same inside body parts but we all look different on the inside as well. If you take an age-matched male and him and I go through a motion analysis test, you are likely to find that I may be at a higher risk of a left ACL tear than the age-matched male due to weaknesses, bone structure, movement patterns, etc. Genetics play a major factor, as does previous experiences with injury. I can sprain my ankle badly once. It will not go back to 100%. I am now prone to more ankle sprains. This is also thought to be true about concussions but it's a terrible misconception. Concussions are highly likely to reoccur 10-14 days after the first. You are at no greater risk for a concussion after recovery than you were prior to your first concussion. Concussions are mostly the result of your style of play, position of choice, and how you are used (over the middle WR vs a guy who runs fly patterns all game).
Looking at Thompson's injury patterns, I would say he is at risk for back, shoulder, and knee problems. ACL tear is a good possibility on his "healthy" side if his first ACL tear was non-contact. That's frequently an anatomical issue if there was no contact to facilitate the tear. I would put Thompson in the "higher risk" category for injuries given his history listed above, especially the types of injuries he has sustained.
Maybe. It surely is true that playing RB in the NFL gets people dinged up but when that means one major injury for every 1000 touches for most guys (just guess there, would love to see more accurate data on that) and one guys has 5 major injuries in 450 touches, you have to think maybe something more than random variance is going on. I mean it's statistically possible for someone to win the lottery 3 weeks in a row, but realistically if they do they're probably cheating.It basically is that, right?
I mean, he is playing a game where huge men have to hit him on every play. The activity itself is whats causing injuries like those. So people are willingly putting themselves in the situation that increases the odds of those injuries. Some people get hurt, some people never get hurt seriously. So what are the factors that make this happen?
- playing professional football
- playing a position that gets beaten up for a living
- size
Out of all of these the only thing that an NFL RB will have much control over is their size.
That's not true at all. Some people have bad genetics. Their bones aren't full strength, they have trouble hydrating properly, their collagens aren't very elastic nor do they heal well - there are all kinds of physiological effects that differing people can be susceptible to.Maybe we disagree on this point, but IMO, that term is rarely used the way it should be. I feel its inaccurate and being applied to something it shouldnt be because we dont have a name for it that depicts the situation more correctly. Nobody is really "prone" to these injuries. It's a similar situation to Dion Lewis, whether its recency bias, theyre parroting someone else idk, but he, as someone who has been injured multiple times, is being labled as injury prone. Its simply untrue.
I feel the term is better used to describe guys who have re occurring soft tissue issues, lower leg, concussion history, stuff like that. I know concussions sort of come with football too, like ACL injuries, but the studies seem to point to them being easier to get, as you suffer more of them.
I was unaware of his pre nfl injuries. Thats my oversight.BeGal, gave you a legitimate answer yet you still disagree. He might or might not be “prone” but his point is that he keeps missing time do to his injuries and he provides you with the injuries and the years to back up his comments. CT is a JAG anyway. Lol
Tex
If you're not available on Sunday consistently, then you're injury prone. I don't care if it is because you got your head bashed in, your knee torn up, or came down with a case of the sniffles.Maybe we disagree on this point, but IMO, that term is rarely used the way it should be. I feel its inaccurate and being applied to something it shouldnt be because we dont have a name for it that depicts the situation more correctly. Nobody is really "prone" to these injuries. It's a similar situation to Dion Lewis, whether its recency bias, theyre parroting someone else idk, but he, as someone who has been injured multiple times, is being labled as injury prone. Its simply untrue.
I feel the term is better used to describe guys who have re occurring soft tissue issues, lower leg, concussion history, stuff like that. I know concussions sort of come with football too, like ACL injuries, but the studies seem to point to them being easier to get, as you suffer more of them.
The genetics argument has some traction, imo.That's not true at all. Some people have bad genetics. Their bones aren't full strength, they have trouble hydrating properly, their collagens aren't very elastic nor do they heal well - there are all kinds of physiological effects that differing people can be susceptible to.
I agree, he will likely get some extra work if CT's historical trend holds true. Maybe he will just out right earn it either way.Maybe. It surely is true that playing RB in the NFL gets people dinged up but when that means one major injury for every 1000 touches for most guys (just guess there, would love to see more accurate data on that) and one guys has 5 major injuries in 450 touches, you have to think maybe something more than random variance is going on. I mean it's statistically possible for someone to win the lottery 3 weeks in a row, but realistically if they do they're probably cheating.
I don't know if Thompson is "injury prone" or not, but when a guy has had a catastrophic injury in 5 of the last 6 seasons where he received more than 10 touches it seems like it's not going out that far on a limb to think hey, maybe Guice will get a crack at some 3 down work at some point this year.
Regardless, Thompson's injury history is a lot more extensive than "a torn labrum 5 years ago".
This is well produced and I understand where he's coming from, just don't buy it. He's getting to the idea that Guice's vision and decision making are poor. He uses some examples that I would have to believe are weak at best. Multiple times he shows plays where Guice has trap lanes and must decide between them. In most cases thru his career he chooses correct, but in the 10 or so examples the host chooses to show, he has very little room and instead plows forward or takes the contested yard or two. His legs never stop and when he hits these guys, they know they got hit.tdmills said:https://www.dynastytradecalculator.com/trouble-in-paraguice/
Here's a film/video article on some negatives to Guice's game.
I watched the first half of this and I got the same impression.This is well produced and I understand where he's coming from, just don't buy it. He's getting to the idea that Guice's vision and decision making are poor. He uses some examples that I would have to believe are weak at best. Multiple times he shows plays where Guice has trap lanes and must decide between them. In most cases thru his career he chooses correct, but in the 10 or so examples the host chooses to show, he has very little room and instead plows forward or takes the contested yard or two. His legs never stop and when he hits these guys, they know they got hit.
Whatever, everyone has their "thing" they look at during evaluations. I got little from this, but maybe this solidifies someone else's opinion.
Guice demonstrates good vision so frequently when looking at all of his plays. In my charting of 10 games for Guice I recorded 92 instances of his having good vision, which is much more than any other RB I charted from the 2018 draft class. For Nick Chubb for example I recorded 51 instances of his demonstrating good vision out of 10 games. For Sanquon Barkley 69 instances out of 10 games.
92>69
He really cherry picks bad plays. Specifically ones where he shows a lack of "pro" discipline. He fails to note the other 100x Guice makes the right call and shows how decisive he really can be. And really, some of these "bad" plays are not really that bad. He never lost yards. He just didn't get as much as he might have had he made a few impossible reads. Dunno, but it feels like these plays are abnormalities...I watched the first half of this and I got the same impression.
While I don't think the creator of the video is wrong in his observations, some of these plays Guice could have been more decisive, and maybe this would have led to slightly better results, the same can be done with every single player. None of them are perfect all of the time.
Guice demonstrates good vision so frequently when looking at all of his plays. In my charting of 10 games for Guice I recorded 92 instances of his having good vision, which is much more than any other RB I charted from the 2018 draft class. For Nick Chubb for example I recorded 51 instances of his demonstrating good vision out of 10 games. For Sanquon Barkley 69 instances out of 10 games.
From my charting vision is Guices best trait.
So to isolate these instances where he fails to make a good decision is really overlooking the many many times when he does make a good decision. In my view his spatial awareness is excellent. He reads his blocks very well and has good timing with the flow of the defense to create successful runs.
The author above also chooses Guices worst games from my charting for his examples. His game against Florida was the worst game I kept in my 10 game sample. His game against Auburn was worse than the game against Florida and I ended up throwing that game out, not just because it was bad, but also because he had so few plays (20) in that game.
I just don't think that the author is being fair with his criticism to not at least mention that Guice does have very good vision most of the time. I suppose doing that would not support the point he is trying to make, but if he did I would think he is being fair and honest with his criticism, instead of pointing out the worst plays of his college career, while ignoring all of the good plays.
Stuff happens.He really cherry picks bad plays. Specifically ones where he shows a lack of "pro" discipline. He fails to note the other 100x Guice makes the right call and shows how decisive he really can be. And really, some of these "bad" plays are not really that bad. He never lost yards. He just didn't get as much as he might have had he made a few impossible reads. Dunno, but it feels like these plays are abnormalities...
I hear ya but all that’s going to change when Guice catch a few passes and take it to the house. It’s going to be difficult to keep him off the field.
Tex
Lol, I get jokes.menobrown said:As much excitement as Guice continues to create, don't sleep on Rob Kelley. He's looked good.
But I thought he couldn’t catch?Bojang0301 said:My twitter feed has had a bunch of Guice clips the past week or so. He looks really damn good. Specifically this play here.
while I understand you're being facetious, I dont think anyone ever said he couldn't catch or had stone hands. he had 600 receiving yards as a senior. what was said was that chris thompson would be the 3rd down guy. now that they are seeing Guice in the passing game. maybe they will change that mindset. Thompson cant fo half of what Guice can with the ballBut I thought he couldn’t catch?
I think Thompson will be the 3rd down back even if Guice shows he's capable in the passing game - Thompson is very good in that role and spelling even a workhorse type back is necessary. Just because Thompson is the main guy for that role doesn't mean Guice will not see work in the passing game however. Teams do pass on first and second downs and Guice may occasionally be left in on passing downs or 2 minute drills. I can see Guice ending up with 30-32 receptions (which helps in ppr) which is only 2 a game on average.Thompson cant fo half of what Guice can with the ball
I agree, and I'll take it! Those 2 points per game are the difference between being a flex player or a RB2 IMO.I think Thompson will be the 3rd down back even if Guice shows he's capable in the passing game - Thompson is very good in that role and spelling even a workhorse type back is necessary. Just because Thompson is the main guy for that role doesn't mean Guice will not see work in the passing game however. Teams do pass on first and second downs and Guice may occasionally be left in on passing downs or 2 minute drills. I can see Guice ending up with 30-32 receptions (which helps in ppr) which is only 2 a game on average.
Of course there's always the (strong) possibility Thompson misses games with injury so those reception totals have room to grow.
plus the yardage and occasional TDs as wellI agree, and I'll take it! Those 2 points per game are the difference between being a flex player or a RB2 IMO.
In the end, if he's making plays they will get him the ball. If that means passing him the ball, then they pass him the ball.
Was it? Nice move on the LB covering him but the safety would have leveled him at the two if it was a full contact practice.it's a very impressive run after the catch and has me excited for his role to grow.
That's what I was curious about too. Wondering how it would have looked if it was in a game or full contact. I was most impressed with the move on the LB, however that was more a result of the LB over-pursuing than Guice "breaking his ankles." Good move regardless. He looks kind of small/short was my first impression, but he's really notWas it? Nice move on the LB covering him but the safety would have leveled him at the two if it was a full contact practice.
I took a look at this a few weeks ago and I understand when Gruden said Guice was first/second down back that did not mean that in obvious passing situations that would be the case but like you mentioned, like a Fournette, he'll get some receptions.Dr. Octopus said:I think Thompson will be the 3rd down back even if Guice shows he's capable in the passing game - Thompson is very good in that role and spelling even a workhorse type back is necessary. Just because Thompson is the main guy for that role doesn't mean Guice will not see work in the passing game however. Teams do pass on first and second downs and Guice may occasionally be left in on passing downs or 2 minute drills. I can see Guice ending up with 30-32 receptions (which helps in ppr) which is only 2 a game on average.