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RB Derrius Guice, Free Agent


Faust

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3 hours ago, Keith1 said:

So--how early would you guys reach for him ? I have the first pick in my 12 team 1/2 point PPR redraft. If I don't take him at pick # 25 (3.01) he will NOT be around when I pick again, 23 picks later, at 4.12. I get that the potential is there, but I have to believe that it is more than just a bit "bold" to take Guice over Jordan Howard or Joe Mixon. 

I don't have an exact spot, it's just that if I am in a position to get a RB and it is the Guice, Collins, Drake, Henry, McCoy, Ajayi tier than I take Guice. I am just kind of lukewarm to cold on the other guys. 

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3 hours ago, Keith1 said:

So--how early would you guys reach for him ? I have the first pick in my 12 team 1/2 point PPR redraft. If I don't take him at pick # 25 (3.01) he will NOT be around when I pick again, 23 picks later, at 4.12. I get that the potential is there, but I have to believe that it is more than just a bit "bold" to take Guice over Jordan Howard or Joe Mixon. 

As you said, the pick you have will determine if you have a chance on him.  His current ADP is 3.8, and I think it may creep up a few more spots before draft day.  If you have an early pick, you better be all in on him.  And no, I would not draft him over Jordan Howard or Joe Mixon either.

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10 hours ago, meyerj31 said:

The dozen "experts" in fantasy right now don't agree with anyone in this thread about Guice.  None of them drafted him before 4.06.

This mid-3rd love, even in PPR, is ridiculous. You guys are smoking something.

How does one become an "expert" on predicting the future?

Edited by matuski
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10 hours ago, meyerj31 said:

The dozen "experts" in fantasy right now don't agree with anyone in this thread about Guice.  None of them drafted him before 4.06.

This mid-3rd love, even in PPR, is ridiculous. You guys are smoking something.

I'm not impressed with a lot that draft to be honest.

Ideally of course it would be better to get Guice in Round 4 then Round 3, but if you really want him you may have to "reach" - in fact FF Calculator has his ADP at 3.05.

As some one that drafts based off of my projections, I don't mind getting the guy I deem to be the most worthy of taking when I'm OTC - especially when I have no idea if he'll make it back. In fact I don't see a ton of difference between the 3rd Round WRs like Thielen, Diggs, Hill and Hilton and the 4th Round WRs like Cooper, Smith-Shuster, Tate and Thomas - so for me it may make sense to take the "best" RB available when I'm OTC in Round 3.

 

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33 minutes ago, matuski said:

How does one become an "expert" on predicting the future?

You take guys like Tarik Cohen, Randall Cobb, Marlon Mack, Jordy Nelson and Marquise Goodman before Aaron Rodgers because it's so uncool to be the first one to take a QB.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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7 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I'm not impressed with a lot that draft to be honest.

Ideally of course it would be better to get Guice in Round 4 then Round 3, but if you really want him you may have to "reach" - in fact FF Calculator has his ADP at 3.05.

As some one that drafts based off of my projections, I don't mind getting the guy I deem to be the most worthy of taking when I'm OTC - especially when I have no idea if he'll make it back. In fact I don't see a ton of difference between the 3rd Round WRs like Thielen, Diggs, Hill and Hilton and the 4th Round WRs like Cooper, Smith-Shuster, Tate and Thomas - so for me it may make sense to take the "best" RB available when I'm OTC in Round 3.

 

Assuming Dez doesn't sign in Cleveland and there is no bad news on him, do you include Josh Gordon in that group of 4th round receivers?

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10 hours ago, meyerj31 said:

The dozen "experts" in fantasy right now don't agree with anyone in this thread about Guice.  None of them drafted him before 4.06.

This mid-3rd love, even in PPR, is ridiculous. You guys are smoking something.

Wrong. In FPC drafts he is a third round pick. What "expert" drafts are you looking at?

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14 hours ago, meyerj31 said:

The dozen "experts" in fantasy right now don't agree with anyone in this thread about Guice.  None of them drafted him before 4.06.

This mid-3rd love, even in PPR, is ridiculous. You guys are smoking something.

So if that’s ridiculous, what is drafting Barkley in the mid-first?

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7 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

So if that’s ridiculous, what is drafting Barkley in the mid-first?

I'm not touching Barkley in the first.   But I would draft him in the 2nd.  He has the 2nd highest draft grade given to a RB in the last 20 years, just behind Adrian Peterson.  That's some elite company.  The other 10 players on that list are :Lynch, Fournette, Zeke, Gurley, Richardson (bleh), and McCaffrey.  That's some elite company.  

Most scouts actually have him rated higher than Zeke coming out of college. He steps into an offense with possible the best WR in the league taking pressure off boxes and a likely hall of fame QB to help him out.  Barkley also has proven elite-level skills in both pass protection and receiving out of the backfield. There is no concern whatsoever that he will be able to handle all three downs (which is a huge precursor to bellcow-level touches).

I don't think there's much of a comparison between these two players. Guice has a lot more question marks as far as 3rd down role, proven ability in college, off-the-field issues, and surrounding talent.  

Don't get me wrong man, I'm coming around to him given all the praise and potential ability.  But I'm going to have to see some good preseason work to spend a 3rd rounder on him.  It's not like he can go much higher.  If he blows up the preseason like Cook did, he's only going to raise a little bit in the rankings (maybe ~3.02). 

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5 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I'm not impressed with a lot that draft to be honest.

Ideally of course it would be better to get Guice in Round 4 then Round 3, but if you really want him you may have to "reach" - in fact FF Calculator has his ADP at 3.05.

As some one that drafts based off of my projections, I don't mind getting the guy I deem to be the most worthy of taking when I'm OTC - especially when I have no idea if he'll make it back. In fact I don't see a ton of difference between the 3rd Round WRs like Thielen, Diggs, Hill and Hilton and the 4th Round WRs like Cooper, Smith-Shuster, Tate and Thomas - so for me it may make sense to take the "best" RB available when I'm OTC in Round 3.

 

I don't draft just off my projections, but it something I certainly consider when comparing players at ADP and which one actually gives me the most VBD and where tiers drop before making that decision.

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22 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I don't draft just off my projections, but it something I certainly consider when comparing players at ADP and which one actually gives me the most VBD and where tiers drop before making that decision.

To be clear, yes there’s other factors then just my projections such as the ones you mentioned - I just meant that while ADP plays a factor I’m not going to risk losing guy if I think I can make up any lost value in the next round anyway.

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19 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

To be clear, yes there’s other factors then just my projections such as the ones you mentioned - I just meant that while ADP plays a factor I’m not going to risk losing guy if I think I can make up any lost value in the next round anyway.

For me as far as considering Guice in round 3 as is his current ADP it would mostly depend on which WR were still left in round 3 when I am making the pick.

If I am in round 3 and Fitzgerald and Guice are both there at my pick, I am likely taking Fitzgerald as I don't think I can get him as late this year. It is scenarios like this, where both players I would like to have will be gone before it comes back to me, so in that case I just take who I think is going to be the best player for this season in the league format.

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4 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Ignore the depth chart crap, Gruden said today he had no input on it and joked that the team's PR guy put it together. Guice is crushing camp and catching the ball really well. 

I go one better: I ignore people who bring up the depth chart before the first preseason game. 

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1 minute ago, zed2283 said:

Don't take this the wrong way, but that doesn't really mean anything.

so him walking on the sideline, and smiling means nothing? after being examined for a potential knee injury?

imo it means a lot. him with a grimace on his face going to the locker room is much worse than walking and smiling. 

 

unless hes happy he is hurt terribly bad and is trying to make it worse by using it. 

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

so him walking on the sideline, and smiling means nothing? after being examined for a potential knee injury?

imo it means a lot. him with a grimace on his face going to the locker room is much worse than walking and smiling. 

 

unless hes happy he is hurt terribly bad and is trying to make it worse by using it. 

Didn't see anything about him smiling in the original post.  KiJana Carter was walking around on the sideline too.

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11 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

Don't take this the wrong way, but that doesn't really mean anything.

I guess that’s true but it means they didn’t send him to the locker room for an x-Ray, further examination or treatment. But sure guys have walked on tears before but usually just to leave the field / they don’t stand around. Hopefully it’s nothing.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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4 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

MRI tomorrow per Rapoport, yikes

watched the play where he was injured. was a sick run. watched it over and over. didn't see anything on the run that was terribly bad. he had a slight hyper extension and possibly some knee valgus. not a good combination. it was very slight but that combo is never a good thing. hard to really tell from that angle. 

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On ‎7‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 9:13 PM, ConnSKINS26 said:

The Skins have not had a stud RB since Clinton Portis, who changed his body and running style to survive the rigors of carrying the load for Joe Gibbs, and was never really his Denver self again.

Since then, they've tried rolling out the corpses of Fast Willie Parker, Shaun Alexander, Ryan Grant and Larry Johnson, low or no pedigree guys like Alfred Morris, Roy Helu, Evan Royster, Chris Thompson, Matt Jones, Darrel Young, Silas Redd, Lache Seastrunk, Keiland Williams, Ryan Torain, Tim Hightower, Keith Marshall, Mack Brown, Kapri Bibbs, Byron Marshall, Samaje Perine, etc. Sometimes these guys have flamed out, sometimes they've done more than they should due to scheme, and sometimes they were just below replacement-level bodies used by necessity. 

He is going to be a revelation for Skins fans. I have no idea what that will mean for fantasy purposes, but this team hasn't had an actual good RB in a long, long time. 

Wasn't great for a long time before Portis either... I still own a Trung Candidate jersey

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12 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

wish I could import a picture. got a decent freeze frame on that video at 11 seconds that shows where he might be showing slight hyper with slight valgus as hes getting hit. I could speculate on what it could be, but people tend to get on my case for that

Also looks like his left leg gives under the loose astroturf as he makes the cut/spin at the 8 second mark around the 38 yard line - he could have tweaked it there.

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1 hour ago, ffldrew said:

Also looks like his left leg gives under the loose astroturf as he makes the cut/spin at the 8 second mark around the 38 yard line - he could have tweaked it there.

In the locker room whilst sucking on a lollipop with his classic light up the room smile, Guice said he felt it hyper extend just a bit during his stiff arm. 

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Just now, ponchsox said:

So he can still play week one. Let’s see what the MRI confirms.

Based on everything I read, I see no reason he won't start week 1.  Jordan Farmar (old Laker guard) once sprained an MCL (confirmed by MRI) and played in a game just days after the MRI.

That said, I could see the Skins shutting Guice down for the rest of the preseason games (which is a bummer, because I want to see him play)

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10 minutes ago, DansRams said:

That said, I could see the Skins shutting Guice down for the rest of the preseason games (which is a bummer, because I want to see him play)

As a dynasty owner and some one that is targeting him in redraft, I'm cool with him being shut down for the preseason.

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3 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Aside from the injury, his outing wasn't impressive. I thought Rob Kelley wore number 29 at first and wondered when I'd get to see Guice play. 

So he had 1 big run, and several ok ones. Kinda like Barkley? 1 run for 39 yards, and 4 runs for 4 yards.

 

Also, if it's a sprained MCL he could be good to go for next week if they needed him (which they don't in preseason). It depends on the severity of the sprain and if there's any tears. Here's hoping he's healthy enough to get some reps in 2 weeks, in the "most important" preseason game. 

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  • Faust changed the title to RB Derrius Guice, Free Agent

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