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RB Derrius Guice, Free Agent (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Yea I said we are not at that point yet but don't act like this is not a setback either and I don't think should be brushed aside as a nothingburger.
Are there any short term ramifications? I know that it was initially viewed as the best of the worst case scenarios (isolated to the ACL, very early in preseason, lots of time for rehab). I know a lot of people have pretty much already banked on him seeing an AD like share next season.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
If he was still dealing with an infection, sure it's something to get seriously concerned over. But it seems like he is well past that part of his recovery. He has plenty of time to make up for a setback that basically affects his end date of rehab
It's absolutely a set back, but lucky for Guice, and his owners, he tore this very early. He should be starting running this month. Obviously he wont be. I would anticipate him starting to run within the next 1-2 months. But I think it's ridiculous to suggest he may never play again or have an injury riddled career because of this. Those scenarios are completely unrelated to his ACL situation.
ETA, if he had torn his ACL week 4, I'd have a completely different opinion on what this meant for his 2019 outlook.
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Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
I am curious when that draft was held, as pre-injury he didn't fall close to 1.08 in any of my leagues, while post injury was late 1st in most.
Not what I said but please tell Alex Smith how ridiculous it is to even suggest or think that post operative infections resulting in further surgeries could in any way be a concern for the rest of your career.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
He didn't have further surgeries. That term really distorts the treatment he had. He had several lavage procedures done, which is very minimal and quite standard. It's the internal equivalent of rinsing out your mouth because you have a mouth sore. Healing time after this is as long as it takes a 1/2 inch cut to heal on your skin.
If his ACL was destroyed by the infection and he needed another ACL surgery, then sure we can talk about the seriousness of that. But you are really stretching things really far and assuming a lot, when really he is far past the worst part of this whole ordeal, and what he had done is pretty standard for a body infection (PICC line, frequent IV antiobiotics, lavage, etc)
If we knew about this back when the infection was active, sure we could speculate long term possibilities. I would have been worried and agreed with you 100%. He could have lost his leg, had another ACL reconstruction as I suggested could have happened above, he could have been delayed months. But he went through it just fine and is past that now. There is no live infection. He is following a predictable recovery course at this time. Speculating at this point is not constructive because there is nothing to speculate. Your worry is very justified... 3 months ago. Today, not so much; why worry about what could have been, when we already know that it isn't going to happen? He could have lost his leg... sure... but he didn't. He could have needed more surgery... sure... but he didn't. Some poor Guice owner is going to read what you're writing and try to sell for whatever he can in fear Guice's career is over, but the reality of it is he is slightly delayed due to a nasty infection, received standard care, is now infection free and rehabbing on schedule. At this point we don't know if he is weaker as a result of the delayed rehab, but I'm not terribly worried because he had a long recovery time anyways and he seems truly motivated to get back to playing football.
You can think what you want about this, but from what I'm reading he's past the infection and is just fine in his recovery now
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Looks like he's doing fine now in this photo from last week: https://www.instagram.com/p/BrDP3gWhh2X/
Interseptopus
Footballguy
his left gastroc looks pretty atrophied... but that's expected. hope he gets more leg days in
Elevencents
Footballguy
Or it’s just the angle. Calves are notorious to disappear with angles (I should know, used to bodybuild and was always after the perfect angle to accentuate a weak body part).
Interseptopus
Footballguy
yeah I considered that. his right calf looks super small too. especially when you see how large he is up top. I'm sure its just a camera angle. Although I'd be seriously impressed if he had little to no atrophy after a surgery + infection.
Regardless, looks like a beast
Interseptopus
Footballguy
a lot can change in the offseason. I personally think they make a big change at QB. Smith's contract was really a 1 year deal. a lot of decent QBs on the market. I have a scenario that would be awesome, and quite possible.
matttyl
Footballguy
They fully guaranteed $55m. There is still $15m of that to be paid - and a huge cap hit to either come in 2019, 2020 or possibly 2021. And I mean over 25% of the cap for a player who may never play again. So I'm not following your "really 1 year deal" thing. How could they improve on their current QB situation?
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Agreed. The team doesnt have an easy out as a "1-year deal".
*in regards to the cap they are very smart/lucky to have front-loaded that 40 million dollar salary this year. But they are unlucky in having paid him 67 million dollars for 1 year of service.
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matttyl
Footballguy
More than that.
"Odds are the Redskins are going to have to pay $31 million more dollars and account for $52.6 million on the salary cap for a player who most likely won’t play another meaningful snap for the organization."
No matter if we're talking real money (where they still owe him at least $15m, but more likely $31 with his 2020 "injury guarantee") - or if we're talking salary cap money (where there likely is at least $36m but maybe up to $53m still to be accounted for).....the Redskins have no good options. Moreover, bringing in any meaningful QB is only going to make those numbers worse.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Yeah, to time it to hit over 2 years... they will eat another year worth of salary. So 22 becomes 36.6.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
hmmm my mistake. I was under the impression that it wasnt crippling to cut him.
what a terrible contract
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
But man they were so smart to avoid paying Cousins 84M/3 yrs fully guaranteed. Oof. Let's not forget they traded a 3rd and a stud slot CB on a rookie contract for Smith, too. Disaster.
Elevencents
Footballguy
Not running back legs
He better not stand next to Saquon if he wants to impress anyone. scott46984
Footballguy
Hoping this turns out well, interested to see what this guy can do!
ex-ghost
Footballguy
matttyl
Footballguy
Wouldn't have been so bad if he didn't get hurt. Might still not be bad if he's ready for week 1 next year, but that's looking more and more doubtful.
As to the above statement of "at least they didn't give a 84m for 3 years to Cousins" - that could have been worse if they had done that, and then Cousins had the same injury (and then possibly never played again). The Redskins would have over a quarter of their cap tied up for 3 years for a guy who played half of one season.
scott46984
Footballguy
Watching this one with concern....Was excited to draft and stash a rookie RB with lots of upside, but this infection thing has me quite concerned about long term damage and effect on this young man's long term outlook. Hoping he recovers enough by next year camp to show his abilities and put aside the concerns about how it will affect his skills and explosiveness.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
hes doing some general warm up exercises. nice to see but it's way too early for him to be doing anything that would get me excited. in fact, before I clicked the link I sort of did a "oh boy how much am I going to hate this," but it really wasnt much but typical therapy for a high level athlete. at 5 months he should certainly be running. that usually happens anywhere between 3 to 4 months post op depending on the rehab.
I'm excited for his 2019 season and own him everywhere, but this is pretty ho-hum to me. maybe it's my knowledge of the recovery for this but all I think of when I see it is what I feared my high school English teacher to write on my papers: so what?
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
LINK to video
Yahoo Sports NFLVerified account @YahooSportsNFL
Looks like @Redskins RB Derrius Guice is making a ton of progress rehabbing his ACL #HTTR
Note to self, do not forget about the 2018 videos showing Dalvin Cook looking godlike in his rehab. There's a big difference between running and playing football, he will very likely be overdrafted in all redraft leagues.
I still like him just about the same in dynasty, with the caveat that I do not expect RB1 production this season.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't think Dalvin Cooks hamstring injury was in any way related to his previous ACL injury. Cook was fully recovered from the ACL rehab and was playing pretty well before the hamstring injury in week 2 against the Packers.tangfoot said:
Cook missed the 3rd game vs the Billss due to the hamstring injury. Cook tried to come back week 4 against the Rams but was still recovering from the injury and did not play well. Cook missed the next 4 games still recovering from the hamstring.
While I suppose it is possible that Cooks hamstring injury was somehow related to the ACL I don't really think that it was.
@Dr. Dan do you think Dalvin Cooks recovery from ACL was in any way related to his hamstring injury?
As ffmail4me points out Guice has 2 more months than Cook had to recover from his injury.
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I guess maybe a little? Like I said, I still like him a lot for dynasty, but there's no way in hell I'm going to pay what his going rate will be in redraft.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What is his price in redraft leagues?
Gally was saying basically the same thing, that Guice is expensive.
Mike Clay has Guice ranked as the 61st overall player in his ranking right now, which do not include rookies. I can find players on his list ranked above Guice who I would trade straight up for him.
His price today is irrelevant. By the end of summer, it's going to be something like borderline RB12 overall.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I could see that happening.
So a good reason to hold if this is an appreciating asset.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
That seems a bit high for an unknown player coming off injury. Other negative factors include playing for a team without a clear answer at QB, a great third down back on the roster, and potentially AP lingering around still. I can’t imagine in a perfect storm taking the guy in the top 12 and I am a fan of Guice. An interesting player to watch through the offseason for sure.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I do. But I cant be certain of course. I posted this in Cooks thread a while ago
The hamstrings are the brakes for the quadriceps. so when the knee straightens the hamstrings slow down that moment so that your knee doesnt snap the wrong way. The ACL also does this. During an ACL rehab, the patient will become significantly weaker. I have no idea what his muscle capacity was prior to the season, so I am speculating, but a hamstring issue following an ACL tear isnt unusual and they are often linked.
For Guice, initially I was not worried. he had more time than Cook did to rehab. His infection slowed down his rehab process however, so I am a little concerned on where he will be come July/August. I have no doubts he will be playing, but I am a little worried about subsequent injury due to a delayed rehab. I believe I read somewhere he had 3 surgeries and was delayed a month or two. Still enough time for the ACL itself to heal, but that's further weakness to worknt though. I have zero concerns about ACL integrity/integration/strength, but I do have small concerns about any injury risk for something like a hamstring strain. All I've seen is fluff video clips of him running. Once we see him at game speed we will know.
That all said, if I didnt have him, I'd be trying to buy. I think he has a great year.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree that seems unlikely. However I can see a scenario where Guice does gain value during the offseason. Maybe not that high, but higher than where Mike Clay and others have him ranked right now.
If that is the case, it makes sense to buy the asset that will gain value in the coming months.
You make some very good points though that they may not have a good QB, and I have also been reading that Peterson wants to return there. If he does then it is good for Washington, they can bring Guice slowly in this scenario and Peterson can still play, he had some great runs last year.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Did a best ball draft last month. He was the 23rd RB drafted
Was going to post something similar earlier. He is currently RB20 on average in ADP in FFPC best ball leagues.
