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The Trump Years- Every day something more shocking than the last! (15 Viewers)

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Skoo said:
Puzder out as Labor Secretary.

WOOOOOOOOO! Score one for the good guys!
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He would have been a ####ty Labor Secretary so I'm glad he's out.  

A bit amused it was the undocumented housekeeper he didn't pay taxes on that was his undoing, and not all the ####ty things he's done to working people for decades that was his undoing, but I'll take it.

 
whoknew said:
Steven Shepard @POLITICO_Steve
20m
BRUSSELS (AP) -- Pentagon chief Mattis tells NATO allies to increase defense spending by year's end or US will 'moderate its commitment.'

--

Good to see the calls for an investigation aren't slowing down the pro-Russia agenda.
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Assessment: Robert Gates' warnings regarding NATO back in 2011 have stood the test of time. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/02/15/mattis-trumps-defense-secretary-issues-ultimatum-to-nato-allies-on-defense-spending/?utm_term=.c1cdf1a6d7e9#comments

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg sought to downplay any suggestion that Mattis’s message constituted a threat, saying that the United States was simply pressing its allies to live up to their own commitments.

“This is not the U.S. telling Europe to increase defense spending,” Stoltenberg said at a news conference after the tough meeting. “This is 28 allies, heads of state, that all were sitting around the same table in 2014, and looking into each other’s eyes and agreeing that we shall increase defense spending.

“I welcome all pressure, all support to make sure that happens,” Stoltenberg said, adding that Lithuania and Romania have pledged to reach 2 percent soon.

Others in the room when Mattis spoke saw his message differently.

“If you pardon my French, we got the message. Pay up or be” pushed, one European diplomat said, using a more vulgar term for what the United States might do to its allies. “If you take him literally, then the message is indeed that there’s no unconditional guarantee of security any more,” the diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity to speak openly about the reaction.

But not every leader felt that the message was a major departure from longtime U.S. policy to ratchet up its allies’ defense spending.

“It’s nothing new, to be honest,” Dutch Defense Minister Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert said in an interview. “Mattis asked for milestones, so all of us will go home and work on them.”

Public opinion in the Netherlands – which currently spends 1.17 percent of its annual economic output on defense – is in favor of spending increases, she said.

“Public support has increased because it’s a rough world out there and people have noticed,” she said. “Europe and also the Netherlands for way too long were accustomed to peace and American leadership.”

Mattis’s ultimatum could have the largest effect for Germany. If it were to meet the 2 percent bar, it would boost its defense spending to about $75 billion per year, resulting in a military larger than Britain’s. That would be a profound shift for a country that has long had a pacifist tradition that held it back from embracing a global defense presence as great as its economic might.

Mattis’s demands were echoed by British Defense Secretary Michael Fallon, who met head-to-head with the U.S. defense chief before the main NATO conclave. Fallon said that Britain — which spends the second-largest amount on defense in the alliance — is proposing that countries that spend less than NATO guidelines commit to an annual defense budget increase.

“An annual increase would at least demonstrate good faith,” Fallon told a small group of reporters in Brussels. Fallon said that Mattis had underlined a “100 percent commitment” to NATO.

Britain has generally tried to ally itself with the Trump administration as London negotiates an exit from the European Union. But British leaders have urged Trump to maintain his military commitment to NATO and to Europe.
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Doctor Detroit said:
So Trump is doing joint news conferences with foreign leaders while continuing to blast the US media as "fake news." He's doing a fine job of making America great again with that particular rhetoric. :rolleyes:  
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Well he isn't taking questions from those fake news organizations, it would crowd out the real Infowars news

 
culdeus said:
I think you are narrow focused here.  Equity markets value vs. risk free rate of return.  Part of that calculation is tax policy.  If tax policy is to be more favorable then that changes equity valuations versus things like, gold or real estate or debt.  Also the sense that the estate tax repeal puts a lot more money in equities where a GOP led change could see a method change in how basis are stepped up.

I don't think a bit of the exuberance is regulation focused.  It's big cigars thinking they can get their cash out of the mattress because Trump is going to change the tax structure in 2017.
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Interesting.  At one point in early February, I recall that the financial industry stocks were up 17% or so, and the non-financial stocks were up around only 6%...seemed to indicate it was a financial boost, around the same time deregulation of that industry was really heating up in washington.  Am I wrong on my recollection here?

 
adonis said:
Interesting.  At one point in early February, I recall that the financial industry stocks were up 17% or so, and the non-financial stocks were up around only 6%...seemed to indicate it was a financial boost, around the same time deregulation of that industry was really heating up in washington.  Am I wrong on my recollection here?
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Financials are definitely up due to the prospect of deregulation. Look at bank stocks up since Election Day. Staggering.

 
adonis said:
Interesting.  At one point in early February, I recall that the financial industry stocks were up 17% or so, and the non-financial stocks were up around only 6%...seemed to indicate it was a financial boost, around the same time deregulation of that industry was really heating up in washington.  Am I wrong on my recollection here?
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That and the added pressure on Yellen to increase interest rates.

 
bagger said:
adonis said:
Interesting.  At one point in early February, I recall that the financial industry stocks were up 17% or so, and the non-financial stocks were up around only 6%...seemed to indicate it was a financial boost, around the same time deregulation of that industry was really heating up in washington.  Am I wrong on my recollection here?
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Financials are definitely up due to the prospect of deregulation. Look at bank stocks up since Election Day. Staggering.
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And what's more, while other stocks are up on on the overall mood and prospects of stimulus and broader deregulation, I think a lot of the gains thus far (since Trump) have been financial...which could be sustainable, or could not be...depending on how the legislation goes.  We'll see...i'm certainly no market predictor...long term in index funds for me, i just try to pay attention to what's going on and why people say the market is responding.

 
jonessed said:
adonis said:
Interesting.  At one point in early February, I recall that the financial industry stocks were up 17% or so, and the non-financial stocks were up around only 6%...seemed to indicate it was a financial boost, around the same time deregulation of that industry was really heating up in washington.  Am I wrong on my recollection here?
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That and the added pressure on Yellen to increase interest rates.
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If Yellen is feeling any pressure, it'll be due to the underlying economic issues, not what Trump or any other boneheads are saying.  One of the key reasons to keep the fed and politics separate.

It does seem, based on the recent jobs reports that Trump now believes are true, that the economic situation is continuing to improve...which are more likely to get Yellen, along with indications of inflation rising, to move.  We'll see.

 
adonis said:
If Yellen is feeling any pressure, it'll be due to the underlying economic issues, not what Trump or any other boneheads are saying.  One of the key reasons to keep the fed and politics separate.

It does seem, based on the recent jobs reports that Trump now believes are true, that the economic situation is continuing to improve...which are more likely to get Yellen, along with indications of inflation rising, to move.  We'll see.
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I dont believe the Fed is immune to political pressures.

 
beavers said:
I have yet to see Trump attack anyone outside of Twitter.
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I don't think it's his style to be direct. 

Even when he's blowing smoke, it's never like HE IS THE ONE saying it. "You know, a lot of people say..." "I don't know if it is or it isn't, but we should look into that..."

Anyone ever had this experience with a client?

  • unbelievably rude and aggressive in email messages
  • reasonable over the phone when discussing the issue
  • as sweet as your grandmother in person


President Trump reminds me of one of those people. 

 
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BobbyLayne said:
I don't think it's his style to be direct. 

Even when he's blowing smoke, it's never like HE IS THE ONE saying it. "You know, a lot of people say..." "I don't know if it is or it isn't, but we should look into that..."

Anyone ever had this experience with a client?

  • unbelievably rude and aggressive in email messages
  • reasonable over the phone when discussing the issue
  • as sweet your grandmother in person


President Trump reminds me of one of those people. 
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Sounds like a coward.

 
jonessed said:
adonis said:
If Yellen is feeling any pressure, it'll be due to the underlying economic issues, not what Trump or any other boneheads are saying.  One of the key reasons to keep the fed and politics separate.

It does seem, based on the recent jobs reports that Trump now believes are true, that the economic situation is continuing to improve...which are more likely to get Yellen, along with indications of inflation rising, to move.  We'll see.
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I dont believe the Fed is immune to political pressures.
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I'd like to believe, in terms of setting immediate policy it's pretty immune.  But given the number of resignations or people who are leaving the fed, it's likely certain people won't want to serve under specific administrations.  It's a shame too, the fed has been doing a pretty damn good job since the financial crisis.

 
Quez said:
He was joking when he said that.  Only people grasping for evidence it to fit their narrative took him seriously. 
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Yes I watched that presser live and was amazed at the media reaction right after. You can't hack an offline server, it was based on the email already being out there. 

 
adonis said:
If Yellen is feeling any pressure, it'll be due to the underlying economic issues, not what Trump or any other boneheads are saying.  One of the key reasons to keep the fed and politics separate.

It does seem, based on the recent jobs reports that Trump now believes are true, that the economic situation is continuing to improve...which are more likely to get Yellen, along with indications of inflation rising, to move.  We'll see.
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Trump's policy stances are broadly inflationary and will have the tendency to push up rates. Whether it is the proposal to do a massive infrastructure spending program (financed with, of course, more debt) or his protectionist instincts, both have the tendency to lead to higher inflation and higher interest rates.

The fact the GOP congressional delegation is pushing this stupid border tax adjustment is also pushing up inflation expectations.

And yeah, the US economic outlook has improved over the last 3-4 months. So too for Europe's.

So inflation expectations have spiked since the election and the yield curve has steepened. A steeper yield curve is a boon to anybody in the lending business.

Yield Curve Steepened Dramatically following Trump's Election

The prospect of financial deregulation is also helping, for sure.

 
timschochet said:
I'm glad he's finally realized that Crimea has been taken. He denied it during the campaign. I'm still rather skeptical that he knows where it is though. 
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He said the same thing to Chuck Todd during the campaign I thought, that it happened under Obama

 
packersfan said:
I can't tell if you agree or disagree with what I said. 
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I think I typically agree with you and doubt I was being sarcastic towards you, so let's go with that.  Thanks to the elimination of nested quotes I don't want to hunt for what you said. :)

 
BobbyLayne said:
I don't think it's his style to be direct. 

Even when he's blowing smoke, it's never like HE IS THE ONE saying it. "You know, a lot of people say..." "I don't know if it is or it isn't, but we should look into that..."

Anyone ever had this experience with a client?

  • unbelievably rude and aggressive in email messages
  • reasonable over the phone when discussing the issue
  • as sweet your grandmother in person


President Trump reminds me of one of those people. 
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Yes. We have a woman who's been very successful in business who is wonderful to be around, reasonable on the phone, insufferably direct and rude via email. 

 
BobbyLayne said:
I don't think it's his style to be direct. 

Even when he's blowing smoke, it's never like HE IS THE ONE saying it. "You know, a lot of people say..." "I don't know if it is or it isn't, but we should look into that..."

Anyone ever had this experience with a client?

  • unbelievably rude and aggressive in email messages
  • reasonable over the phone when discussing the issue
  • as sweet your grandmother in person


President Trump reminds me of one of those people. 
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I can think of someone who fits this exact description.

 
bagger said:
It seems like the VIX is abnormally calm during all of this but I feel it's more like a riptide, seems calm at the surface but you have a very good chance at being drug under and drown if you are not careful.
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Realized volatility at the top level is quite low:

SPX hasn't had a 1% move in 47 trading days

That is unusual under any circumstances. In a period where so much economic policy in question (tax policy, trade policy, etc.) and there is this political/national security drama flaring up, I'd say it is down right weird.

 
Sinn Fein said:
Not gonna lie, I really thought all this winning would feel different
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Yeah...the reality is setting in.  Watching Trump today with Netanyahu was a huge buzzkill, and letting some of the implications of all this set in is really sobering.  I need a drink.

 
Reg Lllama of Brixton said:
Flip through that and gimme exactly 9 bullet points
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How about just one:

Doorman:

[Supervisor] told me that if a black person came to 2650 Ocean Parkway and inquired about an apartment for rent, and he, that is [redacted] was not there at the time, that I should tell him that the rent was twice as much as it really was, in order that he could not afford the apartment.
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RedmondLonghorn said:
Trump's policy stances are broadly inflationary and will have the tendency to push up rates. Whether it is the proposal to do a massive infrastructure spending program (financed with, of course, more debt) or his protectionist instincts, both have the tendency to lead to higher inflation and higher interest rates.

The fact the GOP congressional delegation is pushing this stupid border tax adjustment is also pushing up inflation expectations.

And yeah, the US economic outlook has improved over the last 3-4 months. So too for Europe's.

So inflation expectations have spiked since the election and the yield curve has steepened. A steeper yield curve is a boon to anybody in the lending business.

Yield Curve Steepened Dramatically following Trump's Election

The prospect of financial deregulation is also helping, for sure.
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Deregulation and a steeper yield curve....If I had to guess, only the former will be realized.  

 
The rally...obviously he can't stand his approval numbers being low.  So rally...then he can say "see...look how many people love me, great crowd thatbthe media won't tell you about "

 
Henry Ford said:
The FBI FOIA site has released 400 pages of documents from the Trump racism in housing investigation 1972-1974.
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Yeah...he's really picking some bad fights.  

I get it, you are in prison and you find the biggest and baddest guy and beat him up.  

But Trump is taking on 3 gangs all at once.  They are going to go scorched earth on him now.

 
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