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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Corey “Saly” Davis, Jets


Faust

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Now if only I could find someone to buy him for anything. I just don't want to carry him on my roster anymore. There is probably zero chance I will ever have him in my lineup unless he actually shows something. I don't want to wait that long. There is a very strong chance I cut him in preseason. If that is going to be a thing this year.

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40 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Now if only I could find someone to buy him for anything. I just don't want to carry him on my roster anymore. There is probably zero chance I will ever have him in my lineup unless he actually shows something. I don't want to wait that long. There is a very strong chance I cut him in preseason. If that is going to be a thing this year.

I traded him for a first rounder early last year after they drafted AJ. Traded back for him in a deal acquiring DK. Then traded him again for a 2nd rounder in this years draft (16th overall). I felt the same way. There was no way I was going to be able to predict any of his two start-able weeks during the year. I think he has talent and will someday throw together a 1000 yard season, but who cares. He will most likely be playing for a different team after this year and I just didn't have the patience to wait any longer. 

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14 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

Had 5 FFPC rookie drafts this weekend and he was available in 1 of them.  Was taken at 5.03.

Man I’d bet on a change of scenery making Corey Davis relevant before I’d bet on a 5th or 6th rounder being anything (except you Tyler Johnson ❤️).

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51 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

Man I’d bet on a change of scenery making Corey Davis relevant before I’d bet on a 5th or 6th rounder being anything (except you Tyler Johnson ❤️).

I took Antonio Brown at 3.02 and Tarik Cohen at 3.04.  Rather gamble on AB getting a job and Cohen may get into my flex a couple times during the year.  I'd have taken Davis over almost all the names in the rest of the 3rd and 4th though.  It's FFPC though so its hard to roster him for a year hoping for a change of scenery.  He'd have to be at least semi useful to survive the season most likely.

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On 4/29/2020 at 7:57 PM, Dez said:

Harrison wasn't great his first 3 years but way better than Davis

Harrison had 21 TD's his first 3 years.  Davis has 6.

I didn't really remember Harrison being so bad in yards but probably those TD's made people forget.

Parker is a pretty good comparision.  I held that dude for 4 years finally gave up on him right before last year got a future 2nd thought that was great.........at the time.

Reggie Wayne.

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2 hours ago, Vandelay said:

I took Antonio Brown at 3.02 and Tarik Cohen at 3.04.  Rather gamble on AB getting a job and Cohen may get into my flex a couple times during the year.  I'd have taken Davis over almost all the names in the rest of the 3rd and 4th though.  It's FFPC though so its hard to roster him for a year hoping for a change of scenery.  He'd have to be at least semi useful to survive the season most likely.

Same here, that's the thing. I have about 5 WRs I wouldn't even consider benching for him until he shows it. If I lose out on that opportunity, so be it. I can't imagine it being that big of a reversal that I'd actually fret about it. That said, the chances are he is on my week 1 roster, but to carry all season and into the cut to 16? We'll see. At least FA happens before our cuts.

Edited by barackdhouse
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  • 2 weeks later...

I am trying to fully understand what is up with Corey Davis. He has very good size, speed, quickness, and even work ethic. So far it is that he isn't good against press coverage and he has shown a general inability to put it all together in games despite showing it in practice.

I cam across this article touting AJB https://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2019/12/19/21028713/film-review-a-j-browns-monster-day-against-the-texans. I was looking at Corey Davis in the videos.

1. Nothing to see here. [Own goal line. No Corey Davis. Bomb to AJB.]

2. Man coverage. Davis and AJB on opposite sides. Davis breaks sharply and is wide open across the middle, enough for a first down. FS stays split between Davis and AJB. The ball goes to a better covered AJB a bit further down the field. AJB was open, but the ball was a bit late, allowing the DB to recover.

3. Nothing to see here. [Clear out for an underneath throw to AJB.]

4. Man coverage. Davis split wide and AJB next to him in the slot. Davis makes an excellent cut getting instant separation from the #1 CB. AJB isn't really open, but he turns it into a productive play with his RAC ability.

5. Unclear, but it appears Davis is pressed at the line, gets extra coverage by a second defender who then slides off to pick up the RB out of the backfield. As soon as that happens, another defender slides over effectively maintaining double coverage on Davis. When the play is extended, the extra defender plays the side of the field around the goal-line without giving extra attention to Davis. On the other side of the field, the defense trusted one CB without help to cover AJB the entire time.

In those few videos, Davis was either getting extra attention or was clearly open. Was it like that much of the season? I am not looking to take anything away from AJB. It appears like the other team treated Davis as the #1 while the Titans treated AJB as the #1, since Davis didn't get the looks when he was open. That is a double whammy for statistical output for Davis. If Davis is treated as the #2 by opposing defenses, could he be dominant? Teams should treat AJB as the #1 from the start of next season.

AJB can get it done simply by physicality and RAC. Davis is not that type of player, although he was the #11 WR for YAC over expected YAC, while AJB was obviously #1. If Tannehill is not up to the task, we may have to wait for 2021 for Davis.

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Davis might look a bit better if number 1 corners and double coverage switches to Brown. 

But he has two problems that he likely won't recover from. The team he plays for run the ball. And he's injured often. Always seems to have a niggle and miss bits of games. His injury proneness has gone under the radar but I think that's the main thing that's held him back. It was a red flag when he was coming out of college as well. 

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15 hours ago, Futeki said:

I am trying to fully understand what is up with Corey Davis. He has very good size, speed, quickness, and even work ethic. So far it is that he isn't good against press coverage and he has shown a general inability to put it all together in games despite showing it in practice.

I cam across this article touting AJB https://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2019/12/19/21028713/film-review-a-j-browns-monster-day-against-the-texans. I was looking at Corey Davis in the videos.

1. Nothing to see here. [Own goal line. No Corey Davis. Bomb to AJB.]

2. Man coverage. Davis and AJB on opposite sides. Davis breaks sharply and is wide open across the middle, enough for a first down. FS stays split between Davis and AJB. The ball goes to a better covered AJB a bit further down the field. AJB was open, but the ball was a bit late, allowing the DB to recover.

3. Nothing to see here. [Clear out for an underneath throw to AJB.]

4. Man coverage. Davis split wide and AJB next to him in the slot. Davis makes an excellent cut getting instant separation from the #1 CB. AJB isn't really open, but he turns it into a productive play with his RAC ability.

5. Unclear, but it appears Davis is pressed at the line, gets extra coverage by a second defender who then slides off to pick up the RB out of the backfield. As soon as that happens, another defender slides over effectively maintaining double coverage on Davis. When the play is extended, the extra defender plays the side of the field around the goal-line without giving extra attention to Davis. On the other side of the field, the defense trusted one CB without help to cover AJB the entire time.

In those few videos, Davis was either getting extra attention or was clearly open. Was it like that much of the season? I am not looking to take anything away from AJB. It appears like the other team treated Davis as the #1 while the Titans treated AJB as the #1, since Davis didn't get the looks when he was open. That is a double whammy for statistical output for Davis. If Davis is treated as the #2 by opposing defenses, could he be dominant? Teams should treat AJB as the #1 from the start of next season.

AJB can get it done simply by physicality and RAC. Davis is not that type of player, although he was the #11 WR for YAC over expected YAC, while AJB was obviously #1. If Tannehill is not up to the task, we may have to wait for 2021 for Davis.

Hah good luck with your initial goal of understanding Corey Davis. He checks all the boxes you say he checks- size, speed, strength, he’s a load to bring down. He’s been knocked on here before by a big Titans fan for getting too involved with hand fighting DBs but he was given the 6th biggest cushion last year so I’m not sure struggling against press coverage is truly a concern. 
 

His rookie year was a wash with the hammy injury bugging him all year. Putting up almost 900 yards his second year looks like a gosh darn miracle when you factor in he played in a low volume running offense with a gimpy Mariota and Blaine Gabbert at Qb. People are rightfully getting amped up over Diontae Johnson putting up 680 with scrub Pitt qbs at the age of 23. Davis put up 890 as a 23 yr old with similar Qb play. 
 

Then last year it’s more of the same- they just don’t target their wrs enough and against good pass defenses (Buff, Jags early in the year, Cleveland, Denver, LAC) they run the ball and play D. Even AJB who looks like a cross between Julio Jones and Jesus struggled the first half of the year on low volume. Him and Davis were fairly similar in their game logs with the exception of the week 1 blowup in Cleveland by AJB, up until Davis got hurt prior to the KC game. Then they finally got to face some easier pass defenses- Oakland, second half Jags minus Ramsey, Houston twice, but healthy AJB was the focus and became the alpha and put up numbers breaking crazy big plays.
 

All this is to say I really have no idea what Corey Davis the player is. I think he’s a high end talent but don’t know for sure. You can reasonably say his first year was a washout with injuries and his second was a success given what he played with. Last year looks bad being outproduced by AJB when I was expecting a leap forward. To your question perception is he was more of a focus of the defense in the early part of the year. He’s been hampered by injuries half his career and dealt with low volume and/or erratic Qb play throughout it. That offense will absolutely not support 2 wrs so he’s a no go for redraft. In dynasty assuming he puts up 650-850 on low volume again this year, I’m really curious to see what kind of contract he lands next offseason as a 26 year old. The league’s perception of him and his landing spot will be obviously be very influential on his value.

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  • 3 weeks later...

 

Quote

Titans reporter Jim Wyatt reports the team's coaches still "really like" Corey Davis. 

In the same breath, Wyatt confirmed the obvious that Davis will be playing for his Titans future after the team declined his fifth-year team option for 2021. Looking for positives to highlight, Wyatt said the coaching staff loves Davis' willingness to block. That is important for a run-first offense, but you need so much more from a former No. 5 overall pick at wideout. Davis must be hoping for a DeVante Parker-type trajectory, but even Parker initially had his team option exercised. It was later declined in favor of a new two-year deal before Parker's breakout 2019. 25-year-old Davis has a respectable 1,492 yards over the past two seasons.  

SOURCE: tennesseetitans.com 

Jun 7, 2020, 10:33 AM ET

 

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I say it every year, but this guy really works to improve. He literally does whatever you want a young WR to do in the offseason. Over the years, he's worked out with this guy and that guy and ...he checks every single box, every offseason. It's always a good boy type story when he returns.

I do think he could be special, no doubt with that bod and talent, but he's got a mental block that's high school like and idk why he can't get over it. How long have we been waiting for him to? He stayed late after TC practices to work with AJ and teach him how to beat NFL pressing DBs and a shove that comes at the five yard mark with some regularity because ya can't make contact after it. There are literally videos of him doing it right and showing exactly how to do it. (Yes some say AJ never needed to learn that, doesn't matter here tho) 

Later in a route, he's trying so hard to get a corner on his hip and reaching back and...it's weird.

I'll scream at the TV to forget the CB is there and see what happens, just ignore him!

He's thinking too much, trying to be too perfect, and it looks awful. It only happens in games and is 100 percent mental. He never even did this in HS or college. Like I said, it's an amateurish oops but geesh get over it already.  It doesn't matter which NFL type visits Titans camp, they always rave about him. No one doubts he CAN be this or that, it's if he WILL ever be that guy.

Detroit had some OMG talented WRs and drafted a first rounder every year (or almost every year) for a while there. He reminds me of them. 

For FF, let's be honest we've been burned by drafting him at "this spot" so at some point in the draft, yep his potential does have value at "that spot" but just figure out what those spots are.

He is still the technical #1 and AJ will not be moved into that role. Davis is a very good blocker now and they won't move him from the strong side. There was no issue getting AJ the ball primarily on the left side, so they're not changing roles. There is no truth to anyone saying this and I've heard both Smith and Vrabel asked this on live chats so that's as rock solid intel as it gets.

Titans OC Smith does like to move everyone around and they will use Humphries more. Davis has taken more snaps from the slot than you probably guess. Still though, it's gonna be same role same spot unless something changes. 

 

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On 5/20/2020 at 7:33 AM, Hankmoody said:

I am stashing him for when he signs with HOU next year.  QB has been a big part of his problem and system has been another.  He'll have neither problem there.

I don't think so with him. I'd buy this with others but since he's been there, there have been so many issues with the QB staring and waiting for him to get open or get to his spot and that really leads me to put it on Davis. 

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I heard or read somewhere early last season that he is too nice of a guy and doesn’t have that killer or “my ball” attitude that would allow him to dominate defensive backs even tho he could physically and the Titans were working with him to change that. It didn’t seem to have worked last year. He could end up being one of those guys the Titans and us fantasy guys always expect more out of but never receive

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18 hours ago, Bri said:

I say it every year, but this guy really works to improve. He literally does whatever you want a young WR to do in the offseason. Over the years, he's worked out with this guy and that guy and ...he checks every single box, every offseason. It's always a good boy type story when he returns.

I do think he could be special, no doubt with that bod and talent, but he's got a mental block that's high school like and idk why he can't get over it. How long have we been waiting for him to? He stayed late after TC practices to work with AJ and teach him how to beat NFL pressing DBs and a shove that comes at the five yard mark with some regularity because ya can't make contact after it. There are literally videos of him doing it right and showing exactly how to do it. (Yes some say AJ never needed to learn that, doesn't matter here tho) 

Later in a route, he's trying so hard to get a corner on his hip and reaching back and...it's weird.

I'll scream at the TV to forget the CB is there and see what happens, just ignore him!

He's thinking too much, trying to be too perfect, and it looks awful. It only happens in games and is 100 percent mental. He never even did this in HS or college. Like I said, it's an amateurish oops but geesh get over it already.  It doesn't matter which NFL type visits Titans camp, they always rave about him. No one doubts he CAN be this or that, it's if he WILL ever be that guy.

Detroit had some OMG talented WRs and drafted a first rounder every year (or almost every year) for a while there. He reminds me of them. 

For FF, let's be honest we've been burned by drafting him at "this spot" so at some point in the draft, yep his potential does have value at "that spot" but just figure out what those spots are.

He is still the technical #1 and AJ will not be moved into that role. Davis is a very good blocker now and they won't move him from the strong side. There was no issue getting AJ the ball primarily on the left side, so they're not changing roles. There is no truth to anyone saying this and I've heard both Smith and Vrabel asked this on live chats so that's as rock solid intel as it gets.

Titans OC Smith does like to move everyone around and they will use Humphries more. Davis has taken more snaps from the slot than you probably guess. Still though, it's gonna be same role same spot unless something changes. 

 

Interesting observations about Davis working his routes. If he is trying to leverage the defensive back he needs to know where the DB is, so maybe that is part of it? But he doesn't get the same separation he maybe could if he were paying less attention to the DB?

As far as snap counts go Davis has led the Titans skill players in those the last two seasons. He played 88.4% of the snaps in 2018 and 72.8% of the snaps last season, More than some of the starting linemen.

I wasn't able to find splits on how often Davis played the slot compared to outside.

The Titans ran 3 or more WR personnel packages on 50% of their plays in 2019. 5th fewest in the league last year. Baltimore, Minnesota, San Francisco and Philly are the only teams to have less than 50% of their packages with 3 WR or more.

I was looking at the difference between MM and Tannehill playing and it only amounts to one more passing attempt per game for Tannehill. He averaged 24 attempts per game in the 12 games he played, MM averaged 23.

Tannehill much more efficient than MM. 70% completion rate compared to 59% of MM last year. Insanely high efficiency for Tannehill last season, 9.6 ypa is insane. It was a full yard better than the rest of the field last season and that efficiency is not sustainable imo. Ryan Tannehill has a career ypa of 7.2 

Most of RT career with the Dolphins so I can see splitting the difference here but there is some significant regression to the mean at play here I think.

The 3 year average for pass attempts for the Titans is 467 and that is boosted by the 2017 numbers when they actually threw the ball 496 times. That number has been trending down.

Over the last 2 seasons Davis has averaged 5.8 targets per game so if that continues and he plays all 16 games that would be 93 targets.

Davis catch rate improved to 62% last year and it had been below 60% prior to that. I am thinking the higher accuracy of Tannehill is the main reason why here. At 62% catch rate he lad last year this would be 58 receptions.

Its just not happening for him in this offense as far as what we want or expect out of a top 5 pick at the WR position.

Edited by Biabreakable
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2 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

The opportunity has been there.

69 targets in 15 game last year  is not a lot of opportunity. 4.6 per game.

He had 112 targets in 2018 before Brown was in the picture. 7 targets per game.

8 yards per target with MM if fine. His catch rate was below average, but that was also at least partly because of MM.

If Davis could get 112 targets with the improved catch rate and same ypt as 2018 that would be 70 receptions and 900 or so yards which should be a WR 3.

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12 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

Often hurt and mired in a low volume passing offense with usually dreadful Qb play isn’t the opportunity people have in mind.

Perhaps if he had shown more he would have received more targets last year.  Feed the best WR and that is Brown.

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Davis has had the opportunity in terms of snaps played as I mentioned earlier, he played the most snaps of all skill players.

He was targeted .097 times per snap played last season.

AJ Brown was targeted on .12 of his snaps last season.

I see that margin likely widening in 2020 Brown did a lot more with his opportunity than Davis has.

At the same time what Brown did as a rookie was exceptional and I would expect things like his amazing 12/5 yards per target to go down. I dont see a lot of opportunity for him relative to other WR in the league in this offense either. So if the big plays arent there people could be pretty disappointed by him as well.

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33 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

It's supposed to mean that if he had done more with the opportunities he had, he would be targeted more.  Brown did more with that he had.

Brown did amazing and still only saw 84 targets. I think AJB looks like a stud and will force an increased role. None of this changes anything I said about the opportunity for Davis- low volume, terrible qb play, injured a lot. Perhaps you think that I’m arguing Corey Davis is better than AJB? If so that’s not the case. Simply saying I hope Corey Davis is in a better offense than he’s been in to date in regards to volume and Qb play, and that he can stay a little healthier.

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30 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

Brown did amazing and still only saw 84 targets. I think AJB looks like a stud and will force an increased role. None of this changes anything I said about the opportunity for Davis- low volume, terrible qb play, injured a lot. Perhaps you think that I’m arguing Corey Davis is better than AJB? If so that’s not the case. Simply saying I hope Corey Davis is in a better offense than he’s been in to date in regards to volume and Qb play, and that he can stay a little healthier.

I suppose there is no proof one way or the other that if Davis was in a different offense he would do any better.  I'm sure there are lots of factors at play.  Some that Davis can't control and some he can.

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15 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I suppose there is no proof one way or the other that if Davis was in a different offense he would do any better.  I'm sure there are lots of factors at play.  Some that Davis can't control and some he can.

Agreed at this point who knows. Lots of factors at play.

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  • 1 month later...
33 minutes ago, Faust said:

I can’t tell how to read that yards of separation per target metric. Without knowing the number when he’s not targeted, idk if it means he’s getting a ton of separation generally or more that they don’t even look at him unless he’s wide open.

Im a somewhat disillusioned career-long owner but I think he’s a decent bet at the price you could likely get him at.

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1 hour ago, Mingooch said:

You won that, I am a little surprised u could get that much.

Wow. Yeah. That's like trading a mid to late second round pick for him.

I got Dillon at 3.01 of a start 9 IDP league where defensive guys were certainly going in the second. He's right around mid to late second round in pure offense rookie drafts. 

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5 hours ago, BigAl21 said:

I just moved him for AJ Dillon. I am RB needy and the other owner was WR needy.

You absolutely robbed that guy.  Just walked straight up to him in broad daylight and took the cash and cards from his wallet and then for good measure made him drive you around so you could do some errands.  If it's a dynasty league then you invited yourself back to his house where he grilled you up a steak while you slept with his wife.

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52 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

You absolutely robbed that guy.  Just walked straight up to him in broad daylight and took the cash and cards from his wallet and then for good measure made him drive you around so you could do some errands.  If it's a dynasty league then you invited yourself back to his house where he grilled you up a steak while you slept with his wife.

Ribeye?

 

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  • Faust changed the title to Dynasty & Redraft: WR Corey “Saly” Davis, Jets

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