Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
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Point guard for JV girls basketball team.Mall security guard?
“I don’t know about coaching,” Newman said. Maybe I’ll be a scout or something, where I don’t have to deal with players because there are some players that I would…You remember Latrell Sprewell and P.J. Carlesimo? There might be a story like that but the reverse, where the coach chokes the player. But I think I’d have to do some scouting stuff. I have a different feeling than how the millennials are. A lot of guys rely strictly on their talent. They don’t put everything together. They don’t do the film work.
I put in a lot of film. I had Mike Zimmer as my coach. He challenged me. He’d say, ‘Hey, when you come in tomorrow, I want to know the routes they’re running.’ He’s the guy that got me to watch the film the way I watch it. I remember there were games I can hear him call out plays and I’m like, ‘Yo, how did you know that?’ It’s simple. He watched that much film. He saw a formation and knew exactly what was going to happen. So I wanted to be able to do that. So I started watching more and more film to be able to call out plays.”
I am showing the following for last season for the Vikings offense:32 Counter Pass said:In regards to run/pass splits the Vikes threw the ball 61% LY. I do not think they upgraded their oline enough to move back to a more balanced attack. I have projected a total of 945 plays, which is less then LY. Of that total I projected 56% pass for a total of 529 att. All of these numbers are very conservative IMO, still leaving room for upside.
It appears that you are ignoring sacks in your 990 number, since I understand you to be saying you are projecting 570 passing attempts and 420 rushing attempts to get to 990. But their 1006 plays last season included 38 sacks.Biabreakable said:As mentioned above they have averaged 987 total plays the last 3 seasons, and 1006 total plays last year. I am guessing 990 total plays which is right in line with that, slightly above that average.
Yeah we have been down this road before in years past.It appears that you are ignoring sacks in your 990 number, since I understand you to be saying you are projecting 570 passing attempts and 420 rushing attempts to get to 990. But their 1006 plays last season included 38 sacks.
Your bolded statement is false. The PFR page you linked shows 1006 plays, which is 588 passing attempts + 38 sacks + 380 rushing attempts.Yeah we have been down this road before in years past.It appears that you are ignoring sacks in your 990 number, since I understand you to be saying you are projecting 570 passing attempts and 420 rushing attempts to get to 990. But their 1006 plays last season included 38 sacks.
The total plays I am citing come from here the team stats and rankings.
PFR does not account for sacks in these totals either.
Below this you see the passing stats and the total is also 588 passing attempts. The sacks are accounted for separately. Those are additional plays that resulted in a sack not a pass attempt. The pass attempts were still 588.
No you are right I see what you are saying.Your bolded statement is false. The PFR page you linked shows 1006 plays, which is 588 passing attempts + 38 sacks + 380 rushing attempts.
Your projection of 990 plays appears to consist of 570 passing attempts + 0 sacks + 420 rushing attempts.
Do you see the difference, or am I missing something?
Agreed. I projected 555 passing attempts and 400 rushing attempts.I think it is more likely that Bradford throws 550 times or more in 2017 than 535...
Maybe they only run the ball 400 times in 2017 I would be more confident in reducing that number than I am with reducing the passing attempts to below 550.
Fact: Last season, in his only season with Bradford, Diggs was targeted on 19% of the team's targets.If I am reading this correctly (which in itself is an iffy proposition ) @Just Win Baby is projecting the vikes to attempt 555 passes, of which Diggs would see 110 targets (110/555). That translates to 20% of the available targets. Diggs has been targeted 23% in his first two season, why the drop off?
For context, I am projecting Diggs to get 25% of the targets. My projections may be a bit optimistic, but not unreasonable. My optimism is due in part to this being his 3rd year, a full year under Schurmur, and improved pass protection. I grant that my outlook on Diggs seems to be a bit higher than the community at this point, but certainly attainable.
I don't see the rationale in saying these numbers still have upside. There are 4 numbers here. I cannot see upside on the targets or TDs you are projecting, and I think both numbers are high to begin with, which in turn means the other two numbers are probably also high. It was the targets and TDs that led to my way too high comment.My projections currently have him at 132 targets, 90 rec, 1,080 yds, 7 tds. These numbers place him solidly in the WR2 category, with upside.
You lost me here. Keep in mind that Diggs missed 3 games. His target rate prorated was about 23%. But you do bring up a point about chemistry. Diggs was only targeted 21% when Bradford was under center. I could be underestimating Thielen but I grant you that he is a threat to Diggs value. I have Thielen's target rate at 16% LY, so I feel like there is room for his target rate to increase without diminishing Diggs numbers.Fact: Last season, in his only season with Bradford, Diggs was targeted on 19% of the team's targets.
Yeah Math is clearly not this writers strong suit.Well in order to make a somewhat educated guess, a little math has to be done (unfortunately).
Great analysis.The Vikings threw the ball 588 times in 2016 and ran the ball 380 times.
Peterson was injured for most of last year and McKinnon was injured earlier on in the season limiting him somewhat.
I think the Vikings will run the ball more with Cook and what should be better blocking than last year which was terrible. Mike Zimmer has stated it is a goal for the Vikings to run the ball more effectively this year. That said the offense is being built around Sam Bradford and the passing game now, where as previous teams have been built more around Peterson. I don't see them going back to being a more conservative offense, as they were with Ponder and a young Bridgewater.
The Vikings have averaged 987 offensive plays the last 3 seasons. 2016 was the only year they ran more offensive plays than their opponents. They threw the ball 588 times last year.
So I would guess they have 570 passing attempts 420 rushing attempts in 2017.
132 targets would be 23% of the passing attempts which seems reasonable as the Vikings primary WR however it may be a bit high.
Based on Diggs averaging 7.5 targets per game this would be 121 targets over 16 games. Diggs has not played in more than 13 games per year yet, There were also games where he played but was mostly used as a decoy because he wasn't fully healthy. I think he needs to prove he can stay healthy a full season before I would have confidence in projecting him to do so. Obviously I hope he will, he just hasn't done that yet.
I feel more comfortable projecting him for 7.5 targets per game or 120 targets over 16 as a median range for him. There is upside for him to be used more as you suggest, perhaps 130 or 140 targets for the year if he does stay healthy all year, but I would consider that the ceiling or upside projection rather than the median range one. The Downside would be 100 targets just based on symmetry 100-120-140 targets.
Diggs currently has a career catch rate of 69%. This is very good. Your projection has him with a catch rate of 68% which seems pretty reasonable, as targets go up the catch rate should come down some. I think 68% makes sense. It should be close to this, maybe a little bit less or a little bit more, a percentage point one way or the other won't have that much impact on his reception totals.
100-120-140 at 68% is 68-82-95 receptions. Diggs has averaged 11.9 yards per reception and 8.3 yards per target. So the median range yards would be 976- 993 yards receiving. The upside would be 1130-1162 yards the downside would be 809-830 yards. The total range would be 809-1162 yards.
Diggs has scored 7 TD in 26 games or .27 TD per game. Over 16 games this would be 4.3 TD if you went by targets he has scored .036 TD per target. 4.2 TD would be the median (based on 120 targets) the upside would be 5 TD the downside 3.6 TD
All of the above is just based on what he has done so far. It is possible that Diggs improves due to being healthy, better connection with Bradford, and other supporting effects, such as improved running game causing less defensive focus on Diggs.
32 Counter Pass, I would say your projections are closer to the upside for Diggs than the median range projection (which is likely what consensus numbers are pointing at). however if you expecting improvement from Diggs and the overall Vikings offense, your projections look pretty good, maybe a bit optimistic.
Diggs is a player I don't feel confident in him staying healthy all season, because he hasn't really done that yet. I need to see it. Some projections may be factoring in 2-3 missed games for him in their calculations, which also seems reasonable based on his track record thus far.
If Diggs can stay healthy all year and build on what he has already accomplished, I could see his yards per target going up, which would lead to more yards with the same opportunity.
I am curious about how you came to 7 TD for Diggs this season? I don't really see how he would get that right now although it is certainly possible. So far the Vikings have been putting a lot of emphasis on red zone offense, and Zimmer has said he will be taking a more hands on approach with the offense this year (for better or worse) instead of leaning so heavily to the defensive side of the team.
Griffen is guaranteed $18.8 million at signing, which will be paid out over the next two seasons. He receives more money on the front end with his cap numbers rising to $8.6 million this season and $11.6 million in 2018. Included in those figures is a $5 million roster bonus this year and a $6 million roster bonus next year. Griffen also got a $2 million signing bonus as part of the new deal.
It leaves the Vikings with more than $13 million in cap space for 2017.
The new contract makes Griffen the sixth-highest paid defensive end in football based on his $14.5 million per-year average, according to Spotrac.com, which tracks NFL contracts. However, the Vikings gain flexibility on the deal as his salaries increase.
Mike Zimmer during press conference said that they had not yet decided who they will play at center and right guard. He said that it was more important to him to be right (picking the right players to start and where) than to make a decision too quickly. He did say the sooner they can determine that the better, but they won't rush that process.OFFENSE
-Jerick McKinnon took off his jersey and pads and went back to the locker room midway through practice. McKinnon was taking first-team reps during the walk through.
-Laquon Treadwell took reps with the first team while Michael Floyd worked in with the backups. With Floyd set to be suspended for the first four games of the year, it appears the Vikings will give the 2016 first-round pick the opportunity to win the job.
-Treadwell lined up exclusively on the outside while Stefon Diggs worked in the slot. Under Pat Shurmur, Diggs was used more often as a slot receiver than when Norv Turner was at the helm.
-Riley Reiff was not present for the offense vs. defense portion of practice. Rashod Hill filled in. Hill played in one game last year, Week 17 against the Chicago Bears. He left a lasting impression as GM Rick Spielman mentioned his strong play in his opening press conference.
-Zimmer told the Vikings’ flagship station that Reiff’s injury is not serious.
-Nick Easton played center with the first team, not rookie Pat Elflein. This was also the case during OTAs and Minicamp. It appears the two will battle throughout camp as Mike Zimmer mentioned that he’s unsure how the center and right guard spots will look during the regular season.
-David Morgan got the nod in two-TE sets. He’s the second most experienced tight end – with less than 100 NFL snaps played.
-Michael Floyd showed exactly why he was one of the league’s best deep threat receivers during 1-on-1 drills, burning Mackensie Alexander and beating Xavier Rhodes.
-Cayleb Jones made a terrific catch on a deep ball along the sidelines. Jones’s size makes him intriguing, but he will have to stand way out to have a chance at a job.
DEFENSE
-Alexander took all the reps as inside corner in the Vikings’ nickel package. He picked off a pass that was headed for Adam Thielen. It appears the Vikings are confident that he will step up in Year 2.
-Terence Newman and Trae Waynes mixed in and out. Mike Zimmer mentioned that he sees Newman as an outside cornerback only for now, but if they need him in other spots, he can slide in.
-Tom Johnson played in the three-technique spot with the first team in the nickel package.
-Reps were split in the base package between Emmanuel Lamur and Edmond Robinson.
Kentrell Brothers was also out from the day before leg injury.Reiff, who signed a five-year, $58.75 million contract last March as a free agent, suffered an undisclosed injury Thursday. He sat out Friday and again Saturday.
Zimmer has called Reiff’s injury not serious. Still, it comes after the Vikings were devastated by injuries last year on the offensive line.
“We don’t want to start the same thing that happened last year,’’ Zimmer said. “We want to try to get through 16 games with these guys, but it’s concerning. You don’t want to get anybody hurt the first day.’’
Reilly declined comment on his injury. Rashod Hill again took his spot with the first team at left tackle Saturday, when the Vikings were in pads for the first time.
“It sucks that (Reilly is) not out there,’’ said right tackle Mike Remmers. “I know he wants to be out there right now… It’s unfortunate, but I’m sure he’ll get back soon.’’
Also sitting out practice were running back Jerick McKinnon, who has a right leg injury that doesn’t appear serious, and linebacker Kentrell Brothers, who suffered an apparent left hamstring injury Friday. Zimmer said Brothers’ injury isn’t serious.
Rookie defensive end Ifeadi Odenigbo was knocked out of Saturday’s practice with a leg injury.
I am glad Arif doesn't sugarcoat his reports unlike some other Vikings beat writers. To no ones surprise, it sounds like the OL is looking like crap.
Chris Tomasson @christomasson
Last week Riley Reiff had a "twinge'' Now apparently it's back twinge
Mixing and matching
When everyone is healthy, it appears the only position on the offensive line that hasn’t been determined is the center spot.
But if another player isn’t in, that could create a scenario of shuffling for the Vikings.
That was the case Sunday when Vikings left guard Alex Boone did not practice. Instead of plugging one player into Boone’s spot, Minnesota mixed and matched with numerous line combinations.
Riley Reiff and Rashod Hill each took first-team reps while Pat Elflein and Nick Easton split time at center. But both also lined up on the line together, as Easton and Elflein each spent time at left guard when the other was at center.
Jeremiah Sirles saw action at both guard spots, including filling in for right guard Joe Berger at times. The only mainstay on the line was Mike Remmers, who spent the entirety of practice as the only first-team right tackle.