Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC


Recommended Posts

  • 4 weeks later...
25 minutes ago, DropKick said:

Thinking of making a play for Mahomes.  Value may? have taken a hit with the apparent loss of some weapons.  Anyone seen any recent deals or care to put him into a tier with his contemporaries?

His value hasn’t dropped to anyone who owns him, and he is in a tier by himself. Maybe a couple tier breaks ahead of the rest of the league right now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

can anyone point to a time in history where a football player equalled or bested a record-setting year in the year immediately following it?

I can't. lets not forget the regression to the mean that's bound to happen. we keep saying what Brady or Manning did doesn't affect this guy, but we've said that for every person everytime someone sets or breaks a record.they never,ever, come close to repeating it again.

Brady tossed 50 td in 2007, never threw more than 39 in any season since.

P. Manning threw 49 Tds in '04,never threw more than 33 in any season since.

OJ Simpson didn't repeat his 2k season, neither did Lt2, cj2k, etc.in fact, none of them outside of OJ , even came close.

take away the 2nd or 3rd best WR in the NFL ( Hill) for at least 8-game suspension, throw in a JAG at RB named D. Williams, the 5th toughest schedule in the NFL in 2019, A. Reid a coach on the hot seat ( SB win or be fired), no-name 2nd and 3rd level oft-injured WRs, and a porous defense switching to a new scheme.

I'm betting anyone who'll take the action, that Mahomes throws no more than 35 TD and probably no more than 4500-ish yards. he simply cannot play at the same level - he might be good but we've seen plenty good players who've never repeated seasons like Mahomes 2018.

he's still a top 5 QB, but  calling him the #1 QB in the NFL is hogwash.I'll take A. Luck or Drew Brees or Watson any day, all day, and twice on Sundays over Mahomes.

Chiefs go 8-8 or 9-7.Teams adjust and scheme all off-season to stop Mahomes. Denver's D will be better, Raiders are improving, SD is a SB contender, while KC has gotten significantly weaker with pending suspension of Hill.Dont say that won't matter , it's going to cripple Mahomes' stats.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

can anyone point to a time in history where a football player equalled or bested a record-setting year in the year immediately following it?

I can't. lets not forget the regression to the mean that's bound to happen. we keep saying what Brady or Manning did doesn't affect this guy, but we've said that for every person everytime someone sets or breaks a record.they never,ever, come close to repeating it again.

Brady tossed 50 td in 2007, never threw more than 39 in any season since.

P. Manning threw 49 Tds in '04,never threw more than 33 in any season since.

OJ Simpson didn't repeat his 2k season, neither did Lt2, cj2k, etc.in fact, none of them outside of OJ , even came close.

take away the 2nd or 3rd best WR in the NFL ( Hill) for at least 8-game suspension, throw in a JAG at RB named D. Williams, the 5th toughest schedule in the NFL in 2019, A. Reid a coach on the hot seat ( SB win or be fired), no-name 2nd and 3rd level oft-injured WRs, and a porous defense switching to a new scheme.

I'm betting anyone who'll take the action, that Mahomes throws no more than 35 TD and probably no more than 4500-ish yards. he simply cannot play at the same level - he might be good but we've seen plenty good players who've never repeated seasons like Mahomes 2018.

he's still a top 5 QB, but  calling him the #1 QB in the NFL is hogwash.I'll take A. Luck or Drew Brees or Watson any day, all day, and twice on Sundays over Mahomes.

Chiefs go 8-8 or 9-7.Teams adjust and scheme all off-season to stop Mahomes. Denver's D will be better, Raiders are improving, SD is a SB contender, while KC has gotten significantly weaker with pending suspension of Hill.Dont say that won't matter , it's going to cripple Mahomes' stats.

 

 

 

Counter point: How many of those had said historic season in their first year as a starter?

Edited by tombonneau
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

can anyone point to a time in history where a football player equalled or bested a record-setting year in the year immediately following it?

 

The NFL’s first rushing yards leader was Cliff Battles, who led the league with 576 yards.  The following year he jacked this up a full 28%, finishing with 737 yards.  Alas, he failed to re-set his own record, as Jim Musick posted 809.

Requiring the first year to be actually “record-setting” rather than just “amazingly good” narrows the sample size considerably but I still found one example with less than 5 minutes of google work.

😛

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

can anyone point to a time in history where a football player equalled or bested a record-setting year in the year immediately following it?

I can't. lets not forget the regression to the mean that's bound to happen. we keep saying what Brady or Manning did doesn't affect this guy, but we've said that for every person everytime someone sets or breaks a record.they never,ever, come close to repeating it again.

Brady tossed 50 td in 2007, never threw more than 39 in any season since.

P. Manning threw 49 Tds in '04,never threw more than 33 in any season since.

OJ Simpson didn't repeat his 2k season, neither did Lt2, cj2k, etc.in fact, none of them outside of OJ , even came close.

take away the 2nd or 3rd best WR in the NFL ( Hill) for at least 8-game suspension, throw in a JAG at RB named D. Williams, the 5th toughest schedule in the NFL in 2019, A. Reid a coach on the hot seat ( SB win or be fired), no-name 2nd and 3rd level oft-injured WRs, and a porous defense switching to a new scheme.

I'm betting anyone who'll take the action, that Mahomes throws no more than 35 TD and probably no more than 4500-ish yards. he simply cannot play at the same level - he might be good but we've seen plenty good players who've never repeated seasons like Mahomes 2018.

he's still a top 5 QB, but  calling him the #1 QB in the NFL is hogwash.I'll take A. Luck or Drew Brees or Watson any day, all day, and twice on Sundays over Mahomes.

Chiefs go 8-8 or 9-7.Teams adjust and scheme all off-season to stop Mahomes. Denver's D will be better, Raiders are improving, SD is a SB contender, while KC has gotten significantly weaker with pending suspension of Hill.Dont say that won't matter , it's going to cripple Mahomes' stats.

 

 

 

Earl Campbell's 1st three seasons

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/27/2019 at 10:27 AM, Tanner9919 said:

can anyone point to a time in history where a football player equalled or bested a record-setting year in the year immediately following it?

I can't. lets not forget the regression to the mean that's bound to happen. we keep saying what Brady or Manning did doesn't affect this guy, but we've said that for every person everytime someone sets or breaks a record.they never,ever, come close to repeating it again.

Brady tossed 50 td in 2007, never threw more than 39 in any season since.

P. Manning threw 49 Tds in '04,never threw more than 33 in any season since.

OJ Simpson didn't repeat his 2k season, neither did Lt2, cj2k, etc.in fact, none of them outside of OJ , even came close.

take away the 2nd or 3rd best WR in the NFL ( Hill) for at least 8-game suspension, throw in a JAG at RB named D. Williams, the 5th toughest schedule in the NFL in 2019, A. Reid a coach on the hot seat ( SB win or be fired), no-name 2nd and 3rd level oft-injured WRs, and a porous defense switching to a new scheme.

I'm betting anyone who'll take the action, that Mahomes throws no more than 35 TD and probably no more than 4500-ish yards. he simply cannot play at the same level - he might be good but we've seen plenty good players who've never repeated seasons like Mahomes 2018.

he's still a top 5 QB, but  calling him the #1 QB in the NFL is hogwash.I'll take A. Luck or Drew Brees or Watson any day, all day, and twice on Sundays over Mahomes.

Chiefs go 8-8 or 9-7.Teams adjust and scheme all off-season to stop Mahomes. Denver's D will be better, Raiders are improving, SD is a SB contender, while KC has gotten significantly weaker with pending suspension of Hill.Dont say that won't matter , it's going to cripple Mahomes' stats.

 

 

 

Manning went 37, 55, 39 with the Broncos.....after the ‘04 season

according to ADP....you will be in a fantasy football bubble pretty much by yourself taking Luck, Brees, or Watson

Reid is not on any type of hot seat

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mahomes has justified his QB1 rating.  The only question is how many picks will be between he and the next QB.  That said, I will not own him in a redraft.  Someone WILL take him at least a round before I will consider a QB.  Same goes for Kelce.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/27/2019 at 12:27 PM, Tanner9919 said:

he's still a top 5 QB, but  calling him the #1 QB in the NFL is hogwash.I'll take A. Luck or Drew Brees or Watson any day, all day, and twice on Sundays over Mahomes.

Your arguments on regression to the mean are valid.  Mahomes will likely not blow up on a weekly basis but he should be very good and still have those weeks where he can carry a team.  That's the kind of automatic play I want on my roster.  I'll settle for top 5; calling anyone the #1 is unnecessary.

Love Drew, but 2019 Brees is not in the same stratosphere as Mahomes as a dynasty asset.  Watson gets the crap kicked out of him.    I own Luck and Mahomes in one league and will move/release one for cap reasons.  I intend to keep Mahomes based on age and Luck's injury history but can understand anyone's preference for Luck.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, DropKick said:

Your arguments on regression to the mean are valid.  Mahomes will likely not blow up on a weekly basis but he should be very good and still have those weeks where he can carry a team.  That's the kind of automatic play I want on my roster.  I'll settle for top 5; calling anyone the #1 is unnecessary.

Love Drew, but 2019 Brees is not in the same stratosphere as Mahomes as a dynasty asset.  Watson gets the crap kicked out of him.    I own Luck and Mahomes in one league and will move/release one for cap reasons.  I intend to keep Mahomes based on age and Luck's injury history but can understand anyone's preference for Luck.

Good posting....not sure there is FF player alive that thinks there won’t be regression...its hard not to have regression from what he did last year.....but then I also think there is the thought that “maybe” he could just keep going nuts fantasy wise....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/27/2019 at 12:27 PM, Tanner9919 said:

can anyone point to a time in history where a football player equalled or bested a record-setting year in the year immediately following it?

I can't. lets not forget the regression to the mean that's bound to happen. we keep saying what Brady or Manning did doesn't affect this guy, but we've said that for every person everytime someone sets or breaks a record.they never,ever, come close to repeating it again.

Brady tossed 50 td in 2007, never threw more than 39 in any season since.

P. Manning threw 49 Tds in '04,never threw more than 33 in any season since.

OJ Simpson didn't repeat his 2k season, neither did Lt2, cj2k, etc.in fact, none of them outside of OJ , even came close.

take away the 2nd or 3rd best WR in the NFL ( Hill) for at least 8-game suspension, throw in a JAG at RB named D. Williams, the 5th toughest schedule in the NFL in 2019, A. Reid a coach on the hot seat ( SB win or be fired), no-name 2nd and 3rd level oft-injured WRs, and a porous defense switching to a new scheme.

I'm betting anyone who'll take the action, that Mahomes throws no more than 35 TD and probably no more than 4500-ish yards. he simply cannot play at the same level - he might be good but we've seen plenty good players who've never repeated seasons like Mahomes 2018.

he's still a top 5 QB, but  calling him the #1 QB in the NFL is hogwash.I'll take A. Luck or Drew Brees or Watson any day, all day, and twice on Sundays over Mahomes.

Chiefs go 8-8 or 9-7.Teams adjust and scheme all off-season to stop Mahomes. Denver's D will be better, Raiders are improving, SD is a SB contender, while KC has gotten significantly weaker with pending suspension of Hill.Dont say that won't matter , it's going to cripple Mahomes' stats.

 

 

 

Is there evidence of this or are you just speculating. Didn't Reid win the power struggle with Dorsey and install one of his guys as GM?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/27/2019 at 3:26 PM, tombonneau said:

Counter point: How many of those had said historic season in their first year as a starter?

In Dan Marino's first season as the starter, he blew up for 5084 yds and 48 TD's.  He came close just 2 yrs later with 4746 and 44

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Wise Old Owl said:

Is there evidence of this or are you just speculating. Didn't Reid win the power struggle with Dorsey and install one of his guys as GM?

I would be shocked if Reid was fired if they did not win the Super Bowl. Hopefully if that happened Detroit would hire him and then we could suffer making it to the playoffs every year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Wise Old Owl said:

Is there evidence of this or are you just speculating. Didn't Reid win the power struggle with Dorsey and install one of his guys as GM?

The list of coaches with more job security than Reid  is pretty short....like maybe one

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regression to the mean has to happen. I love Mahomes but even with Hunt & Hill for the entire 2019 season you have to assume regression, if not you are talking about making history. I just saw him go at 2.04 in a 4 point passing TD league redraft where Andrew Luck went 7.11,  Crazy hype

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, TheWinz said:

In Dan Marino's first season as the starter, he blew up for 5084 yds and 48 TD's.  He came close just 2 yrs later with 4746 and 44

Great example. Even though Marino played majority of year, still valid comp.

And I'll take Mahomes as the 2020s version of Marino all day. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

Patrick Mahomes says he has improved his conditioning this offseason.

"I’ve gotten more muscular and (have) less baby fat, I guess you would say," Mahomes said. "So that’s been the big thing for me — sculpting my body in the best way possible so I can go through the season and feel just as fresh at the end as I did at the beginning." Mahomes said he is still at his 2018 weight. Getting in better shape is always a good idea for an NFL player, but especially one like Mahomes who took some big shots during his MVP 2018.

SOURCE: Yahoo Sports

Jul 2, 2019, 3:57 PM ET

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Raptors409 said:

I’m going to be the guy who takes him in the first round. If Tyreek the freak is going 16 games, the guy throwing him passes is going to score more fantasy points than everybody else.

Is it possible to go Hill / Mahomes at the turn?

I have Mahomes and Hill in a 2 player keeper league. I'm currently pretty happy.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Raptors409 said:

I’m going to be the guy who takes him in the first round. If Tyreek the freak is going 16 games, the guy throwing him passes is going to score more fantasy points than everybody else.

Is it possible to go Hill / Mahomes at the turn?

I would think it’s possible.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/19/2019 at 3:42 PM, Milkman said:

O/U on Mahomes passing attempts this year? He threw it 580 times last year fwiw.

Over

- Last year, they were so efficient at scoring, they only needed 996 total plays to become the 3rd highest scoring team ever.  Since I doubt they can keep up that pace, I expect more total plays, and that includes passing.  Can he hit 50 again?  Doubtful, but over 580 attempts shouldn't be hard at all.  Kareem Hunt is a great pass-catching RB, but an even better runner.  That's not the case for Damien, who is better at receiving.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

Over

- Last year, they were so efficient at scoring, they only needed 996 total plays to become the 3rd highest scoring team ever.  Since I doubt they can keep up that pace, I expect more total plays, and that includes passing.  Can he hit 50 again?  Doubtful, but over 580 attempts shouldn't be hard at all.  Kareem Hunt is a great pass-catching RB, but an even better runner.  That's not the case for Damien, who is better at receiving.

Well if you think he'll throw more and I agree then you got to think Tyreek will have and even better year than he had last year. 50 will be tough to duplicate but I think Mahomes has a better chance than any QB to throw 50 TDs back to back. 

Oh and Tyreek going nuclear. It depends how much more exactly but if he throws 620+ its logical to think Tyreek gets 145+ targets. Less down games and the same amount of monster games. 

Edited by Milkman
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This team added possibly the most explosive player in the draft....not necessarily the “best all around WR” or #### like that, but a true “houser”....and now with Hill for 16...they didn’t even really need to do it.....but they did...

Hill....Watkins....Kelce....Hardman (just on the field threat/speed)....D. Williams pass catching ability.....

Edited by Stinkin Ref
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

Kent Swanson @kent_swanson

You can say "Mahomes looks great." and everyone will rightfully say "Duh."

I'm telling you, it's different.

 

Quote

BJ Kissel @ChiefsReporter

Patrick Mahomes is ridiculous. That’s all. 

Drops sidearm after stepping up and to the left in the pocket and fires a dart in traffic to Tyreek Hill, who was coming across the field on the far side.

It’s like watching a video game in person.

 

Quote

BJ Kissel @ChiefsReporter

Patrick Mahomes TD bomb to Tyreek Hill. 60-plus yards in the air. Rinse and repeat. 

A few plays later, Mahomes throws another one deep to Byron Pringle. 

#ShowTime

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • Joe Bryant changed the title to QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
  • Create New...