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Joseph Tyler Mixon - Bengals RB


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Things change quickly in the NFL, especially FF rankings. I was fairly high on Hunt, but did not expect the kind of performance he showed in week 1. For one, Hunt is a much more physical runner than I thought he'd be.

As it stands right now, no way I'd move Hunt for Mixon straight-up (everything considered). While Mixon has outstanding raw physical ability, there was a fair amount of projecting you had to do with him because of Oklahoma's offense & the way he was used. 

Longterm, I'd bet on him being a legit FF RB1, especially in PPR leagues, but it's certainly possible Mixon may not have as high a ceiling as many people think. I'm probably as familiar with him as anybody since I live in Oklahoma. Still, I found Mixon to be a rather difficult read.

Edited by Football Jones
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32 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Hunt has no competition and appears to be a center point. 

Mixon, at least this season, has to contend with two backs. 

If we are talking dynasty... hmmm IDK... that is tough. I'd probably wantMixon

I don't know, the Bengals sure look like they are headed in the wrong direction. Dalton has running streak of poor games and that oline may take some time to rebuild. I would venture to say Hunt is going to be a more valuable asset not just this year, but over the next two or three years. 

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We drafted Mixon knowing he's an elite talent but the oline is awful and that he's in a timeshare. This is exactly how we thought it was gonna go down. By mid season he should be getting over 15 touches a game and will have adjusted to the speed of the NFL. He hasn't looked any worse than Cook or Fournette imo, just trapped in an awful situation we all saw coming 

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7 minutes ago, fredsavage said:

We drafted Mixon knowing he's an elite talent but the oline is awful and that he's in a timeshare. This is exactly how we thought it was gonna go down. By mid season he should be getting over 15 touches a game and will have adjusted to the speed of the NFL. He hasn't looked any worse than Cook or Fournette imo, just trapped in an awful situation we all saw coming 

Totally agree.  I drafted the guy in the 4th round and have yet to start him, meaning that I hope that he comes along in the second half of the season.  The fact that he has led his team in carries for the first 2 weeks and that he led the team in ypc in week 2 means the team is committed to continue getting him touches and increasing his role in the offense.  Opportunity + Talent = Fantasy Gold.

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5 hours ago, Jello_Biafra said:

Does anyone actually believe that someone would offer Hunt or Cook for Mixon? Ignoring situation is a mistake that I unfortunately made. I'd move him in a heartbeat for either of them.

Guys said this after Benjamin's start to his rookie year. He was worth more than obj, Evans, Cook, etc. It's one game against a horrible defence. 

 

I also sold Abdullah his rookie year after the preseason. Guys like you were all over him.

Edited by voiceofunreason
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13 hours ago, socrates said:

Thanks for the response.

I absolutely agree that patience is necessary, especially when dealing with rookies.  I am certainly not ready to write off Mixon.  I still rate him as a potentially elite RB.  I think it would be too reactionary to give up on Mixon.

Where would you rate Mixon (for dynasty purposes) among the likes of Fournette, McCaffrey, C. Davis, Hunt and Cook?  Do Week 1 performances not factor in?

My Dynasty and Redraft philosophy is basically the same, "Win now". ATM I believe he splits right in the middle, Hunt/Cook/Fournette in front and then McCaffrey/C.Davis behind him. I look at it as being a fluid situation with the ticker moving up and down. Do week 1 performances factor in? Sure, its a data point and on the other hand its a first impression(those tend to be unreliable with a 50/50 indication for the future). 

Consider this, Mixon is probably in the worst situation of all the backfields crappy o-line, 3 headed RBBC, and a coach that 'hates' rookies. Week 1, Bengals face the Balt D. which many are touting as a set and forget D. Week 2, its a short week and we all know statistically it favors defenses here. Now this story says Mixon should underperform and he has, however looking at touches Mixon out touched and outgained the others in Week 2. The ticker is moving up for me. Stat wise and for those that bought in at his adp for the draft its moving down. Joe Mixon is a trade target for me in all my leagues.    

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Huge buy low window for this guy. In fact, he's probably going to be given away free on waivers this week.

I liked what I saw in Mixon last night. Anyone who has eyes knows he gives CINCI the best chance to win. 

Lewis is going to start feeling the heat. 

CINCI schedule eases up as well. GB, CLE, BUF.

I'm going after him next week.

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14 hours ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

I don't know, the Bengals sure look like they are headed in the wrong direction. Dalton has running streak of poor games and that oline may take some time to rebuild. I would venture to say Hunt is going to be a more valuable asset not just this year, but over the next two or three years. 

After that game I completely agree... They look lost. No offensive identity. Mixon might not be ready or the coaches may not be ready right now to make him the center point, but they need something. 

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8 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:
13 hours ago, Jello_Biafra said:

Does anyone actually believe that someone would offer Hunt or Cook for Mixon? Ignoring situation is a mistake that I unfortunately made. I'd move him in a heartbeat for either of them.

Guys said this after Benjamin's start to his rookie year. He was worth more than obj, Evans, Cook, etc. It's one game against a horrible defence. 

 

I also sold Abdullah his rookie year after the preseason. Guys like you were all over him.

In redraft, no, very few people are offering Hunt or Cook for Mixon. 

In dynasty, you might see it. There is a difference between a long term outlook and short term outlook. 

Many guys jump all over a player when he does well and anoint them a star, as voiceofunreason said. Many of them flame out. There are a lot of guys who start off slow and people panic. It's kind of funny to watch TBH. I remember in GB after Jermichael Finley's first season people were calling him a bust... guy was a 2nd round draft pick and wasn't a pro bowler his first season. Now, he had his flaws but he turned out to have a few great seasons. It's all about patience. 

When CIN drafted Mixon, I don't think there was anyone in here expecting him to lead rookies in rushing stats. It was the best and worst place for him to land. Best because he doesn't have to be "the guy" like Hunt or Cook do. He can work on his flaws and gradually get eased in. I believe he's younger than those other two as well... but I could be wrong. There's a mental maturity thing there too quite possibly. It's also the worst because he has 2 other backs to contend with. 

I think the consensus was 2018 being "Mixon's Year" because Hill would presumably be gone and he'd have to contend only with Gio, who isn't a 3 down back. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

After that game I completely agree... They look lost. No offensive identity. Mixon might not be ready or the coaches may not be ready right now to make him the center point, but they need something. 

What they need is consistency along the oline, and Dalton to be more accurate with his throws. The loss of Zeitler and Whitworth looms large in their performance thus far. I am guessing the poor oline in week 1 has impacted Dalton's confidence, causing him to hurry his throws and miss wide open receivers down field. 

 

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15 hours ago, Jello_Biafra said:

Does anyone actually believe that someone would offer Hunt or Cook for Mixon? Ignoring situation is a mistake that I unfortunately made. I'd move him in a heartbeat for either of them.

Kareem Hunt was a mid to low first round dynasty pick, and Mixon / Cook were part of the interchangeable top 4 RBs.

Hunt absolutely destroyed New England in his record setting performance in game 1. The Mixon / Hunt swap is not nearly as lopsided as you make it out to be.

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55 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

A few more weeks like this and he should be cheaper in redrafs.  ?

By week 12 you'll probably be able to get him for free in 70% of leagues.

He'll be a great lotto ticket if the Bengals suddenly sign 5 competent linemen and then have catastrophic injuries to their other 2 running backs.

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7 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:

He holds no value right now.  Marvin Lewis is too bull-headed to make a rookie a bell-cow if he doesn't have to. 

Crazy how stubborn he seems to be.

What are the Vegas odds on him being the first coach fired this year? Looking like a good bet at this point.

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28 minutes ago, Casting Couch said:

Kareem Hunt was a mid to low first round dynasty pick, and Mixon / Cook were part of the interchangeable top 4 RBs.

Hunt absolutely destroyed New England in his record setting performance in game 1. The Mixon / Hunt swap is not nearly as lopsided as you make it out to be.

Who said anything about lopsided. I'm saying situation is big, even in dynasty, which is the only format I play. I don't see people tripping over themselves to nab Gurley. He has all the talent in the world, but it's meaningless if he's going to spend a few years on a bad team and not produce.

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3 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

Quit looking for a Hill thread after a few pages.

But with Mixon starting to garner more carries...does Hill even have any value?

No value at all right now but if you think he can play decent with more use and maybe a competent OL I would say small chance he is traded and in dynasty if you believe in him hang on and see if he lands better next year.

As is he is no value, he is just handcuff and the good news on that is when you have a 3 man RBBC it increase odds an injury hits. The bad news is we know what he looks like paired with a healthy Gio, that has use most years but he's TD dependent on a team that has not scored a TD. Don't know what he would look like paired with Mixon if Gio went down, but does not seem like it would offer much.

Right now, as much as I love Mixon's talent, he would not be some kind of must start if Hill was not in the picture.

The last 3 seasons the Cincy RB's as a total averaged 398 fantasy points a season, PPR. That was enough to make both Gio and Hill low end RB2's the past few years, which they've been in PPG with pretty good consistency.  Coming into the season I know Cincy had OL issues but I thought pure talent of Mixon would help the RB's on this team increase this number, in terms of PPG I thought we'd see 25-30 PPG out of Cincy RB's which could support at least a 2 man timeshare. As is after two games they RB's are combing to average less than 15 fantasy points a game. Hill is not really the problem right now.

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Good post.  Mixon should probably take Hill's carries but I wouldn't be that excited even if he did.  Hill isn't getting stuffed just because he's awful, the Bengals are asking him to get 3 yards when they block it for 0.  Hill is actually decent at getting a few when none are blocked, but he's not the guy to just create a big play from nothing. I think they should try Mixon,but odds are pretty good it would have minimal impact on the football team. You can't fix an oline between weeks 2 and 3. They butchered free agency.  

 

The only hope is a new OC, overhauling the entire run scheme, and then using Mixon.  I'm not even sure that works though with the OL personnel. 

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10 minutes ago, menobrown said:

No value at all right now but if you think he can play decent with more use and maybe a competent OL I would say small chance he is traded and in dynasty if you believe in him hang on and see if he lands better next year.

As is he is no value, he is just handcuff and the good news on that is when you have a 3 man RBBC it increase odds an injury hits. The bad news is we know what he looks like paired with a healthy Gio, that has use most years but he's TD dependent on a team that has not scored a TD. Don't know what he would look like paired with Mixon if Gio went down, but does not seem like it would offer much.

Right now, as much as I love Mixon's talent, he would not be some kind of must start if Hill was not in the picture.

The last 3 seasons the Cincy RB's as a total averaged 398 fantasy points a season, PPR. That was enough to make both Gio and Hill low end RB2's the past few years, which they've been in PPG with pretty good consistency.  Coming into the season I know Cincy had OL issues but I thought pure talent of Mixon would help the RB's on this team increase this number, in terms of PPG I thought we'd see 25-30 PPG out of Cincy RB's which could support at least a 2 man timeshare. As is after two games they RB's are combing to average less than 15 fantasy points a game. Hill is not really the problem right now.

True...and he is basically bench "depth" on my team...or was meant to be.

now he is bench guy waiting for an injury to maybe have value if the Oline and offense plays better.

I could probably drop him and not worry anyone would pick him up anyway.  Just hard to do with a guy who has run for 9/11/9 TDs in his 3 years in the league.

 

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The OL needs to play better. Red rifle needs to pull his head out of his ####. And one of either Gio or Hill needs to be phased out. All of these can happen later this year, but don't count on it happening soon.

That's the bad. The good is that Mixon looks the part when he does get touches. Who saw him carry Clowny like a backpack to get 5 extra yards on a swing pass last night? I did. :)

Mixon and DHenry were drafted to be my end of draft (and end of season) lotto tix. In the meantime I scrum for RBs like a freegan.

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27 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Which is exactly what David Johnson needed his rookie season to break out and carry a lot of teams to glory the last few weeks of the season.

Here's the difference between David Johnson and Joe Mixon: when a 3rd round rookie (with an ADP of 142) fails to beat out a 3-time Pro Bowl RB on a 13-win-team, it's not considered to be a sign that the rookie isn't going to be a good NFL player.

But when a 2nd round rookie (with an ADP of 45) fails to beat out a couple of mediocre RBs on a mediocre team, it should be considered to be a VERY troubling sign. And if the rookie averages just 2.7 YPC in his first 2 games, then fantasy owners should seriously consider replacing him with someone who shows more talent and more potential.

BTW, Johnson averaged 3.97 YPC before taking over as the feature back in Arizona, and he had 7 touchdowns despite only touching the ball 54 times on offense! Johnson was productive as a backup, Mixon (so far) is not.

 

 

 

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52 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

Quit looking for a Hill thread after a few pages.

But with Mixon starting to garner more carries...does Hill even have any value?

Hill has zero value with Mixon/Bernard healthy. Any snap he takes outside a goalline/short yardage situation is a wasted snap. They clearly kept the wrong RB last offseason IMO (Hill over Burkhead)

Cincy OL is bad. Hill can't make something out of nothing. Go watch the clip of Tyler Eifert completely whiffing to block JJ Watt. Then tell me Jeremy Hill is able to do what Mixon did. I don't see Hill in the picture much longer. Does that make Mixon worth of fantasy start? Who knows. I don't see Gio leaving the picture.

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7 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

Here's the difference between David Johnson and Joe Mixon: when a 3rd round rookie (with an ADP of 142) fails to beat out a 3-time Pro Bowl RB on a 13-win-team, it's not considered to be a sign that the rookie isn't going to be a good NFL player.

But when a 2nd round rookie (with an ADP of 45) fails to beat out a couple of mediocre RBs on a mediocre team, it should be considered to be a VERY troubling sign. And if the rookie averages just 2.7 YPC in his first 2 games, then fantasy owners should seriously consider replacing him with someone who shows more talent and more potential.

BTW, Johnson averaged 3.97 YPC before taking over as the feature back in Arizona, and he had 7 touchdowns despite only touching the ball 54 times on offense! Johnson was productive as a backup, Mixon (so far) is not.

 

 

 

Don't agree with any of this premise.

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This is another of those backfields that is annoying.  I do not own any of the 3 RBs so my comments are not based on wanting any one of the RBs to get more touches.  Mixon has obvious talent and looks much better than Hill.  Unfortunately, he is part of a 3-headed RBBC and playing for a struggling O.  Cincy should try to trade Hill for a WR.  Another WR to get some coverage away from Green would help the passing game and the O in general.  Mixon/Gio would be a great backfield.  The Dalton to Green connection is going to struggle a lot this season due to the issues on O, and Dalton. 

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17 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

After his first 2 games, David Johnson had touched the ball 9 times and had scored 3 touchdowns. It was immediately clear that he had the potential to be a star.

Mixon has shown nothing close to that in his first 2 games.

Your overall take is too negative IMO.

The Bengals are clearly a mess, but Mixon got more carries than Hill and Bernard last night and averaged 4.0 YPC despite his team's ineptitude. I can understand benching him for the short-term. He was my 5th or 6th round pick in redraft and I benched him last night because I don't think he's startable right now if you have any depth.

However, I don't think dynasty owners should panic. I've watched most of his NFL carries including the preseason and he has basically looked as advertised. Consistently earns "extra" yards in situations where many backs would not, such as this one last night, and we haven't even really seen him bust one yet. That will happen eventually, as Mixon was one of the best backs in the country at breaking long runs last season in college. Hill's contract expires at the end of the season and Cincy's run blocking can only get better, so I think the arrow is pointing up. At some point this season he's going to have a breakout game where he gets 100+ yards and breaks a couple of long ones. At that point people will see what he's all about. If you bail on this guy in dynasty, I think you'll live to regret it. In redraft, it's hard to say if/when he'll become reliable. I don't necessarily think the Bengals are a great team, but I also don't see them going 0-16 and struggling to score all season.

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52 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

Here's the difference between David Johnson and Joe Mixon: when a 3rd round rookie (with an ADP of 142) fails to beat out a 3-time Pro Bowl RB on a 13-win-team, it's not considered to be a sign that the rookie isn't going to be a good NFL player.

But when a 2nd round rookie (with an ADP of 45) fails to beat out a couple of mediocre RBs on a mediocre team, it should be considered to be a VERY troubling sign. And if the rookie averages just 2.7 YPC in his first 2 games, then fantasy owners should seriously consider replacing him with someone who shows more talent and more potential.

BTW, Johnson averaged 3.97 YPC before taking over as the feature back in Arizona, and he had 7 touchdowns despite only touching the ball 54 times on offense! Johnson was productive as a backup, Mixon (so far) is not.

 

 

 

Second round rookie RBs get broken in slowly all the time.  This is not the least bit alarming, especially when the coach is old-school and stubborn and is falling all over himself to praise the player publicly. 

I take it you’re not a math guy? YPC over a full season is not a particularly useful stat.  YPC over less than 20 carries is virtually meaningless.  The stat just isn’t sticky and is way too situation driven.  

I also love your suggestion to the Bengals to replace Mixon with someone more talented!   Someone MORE talented??? Who did you have in mind? 

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57 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

Here's the difference between David Johnson and Joe Mixon: when a 3rd round rookie (with an ADP of 142) fails to beat out a 3-time Pro Bowl RB on a 13-win-team, it's not considered to be a sign that the rookie isn't going to be a good NFL player.

But when a 2nd round rookie (with an ADP of 45) fails to beat out a couple of mediocre RBs on a mediocre team, it should be considered to be a VERY troubling sign. And if the rookie averages just 2.7 YPC in his first 2 games, then fantasy owners should seriously consider replacing him with someone who shows more talent and more potential.

BTW, Johnson averaged 3.97 YPC before taking over as the feature back in Arizona, and he had 7 touchdowns despite only touching the ball 54 times on offense! Johnson was productive as a backup, Mixon (so far) is not.

 

 

 

Scooter, your advice is usually very sound and to the point, but you're off here.  Panicking and selling low on a rookie after two games is a bad move.   

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7 minutes ago, electric Ape said:

I also love your suggestion to the Bengals to replace Mixon with someone more talented!   Someone MORE talented??? Who did you have in mind? 

I said fantasy owners should consider replacing him, not the Bengals.

For example, I would have zero hesitation dropping Mixon for Cohen in a 10-12 team redraft league.

 

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51 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

After his first 2 games, David Johnson had touched the ball 9 times and had scored 3 touchdowns. It was immediately clear that he had the potential to be a star.

Mixon has shown nothing close to that in his first 2 games.

This seems a bit premature.  DJ came into a very potent offense with a coach who loves to use a bellcow and no competition in front of him.  Not downplaying DJ's talent, but Mixon landed in a mess of an offense, a coach who would rather "play not to lose", and 2 capable (though average) RB in front of him.  I don't think Mixon has had a chance to show his talent, so I would say the jury is still out and prob will be until next year wen Hill is gone (free-agency) and Lewis in all likelihood is fired.

 

Maybe I mistook your comments for NFL career or dynasty.  Were you limiting this to fantasy relevant this year?

Edited by chad in Indy
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52 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

After his first 2 games, David Johnson had touched the ball 9 times and had scored 3 touchdowns. It was immediately clear that he had the potential to be a star.

Mixon has shown nothing close to that in his first 2 games.

This is so ridiculous its not even funny. Two of Johnsons first tds were LONG scores but he went untouched on both.

Arians was looking for ways to get DJ the ball in space and show his explosiveness-- I don't think anything close to that is going on in cincy. I think the bengals are going to stink... Lik 5-11 or 6-10 stink & They will have a new qb and a new head coach next season. 

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Just now, [scooter] said:

I said fantasy owners should consider replacing him, not the Bengals.

For example, I would have zero hesitation dropping Mixon for Cohen in a 10-12 team redraft league.

 

I'm not sure there's anyone I like with the same upside as Mixon still sitting on the waiver wire though. Carson,  Allen, Williams/Ellington/Johnson are the kind of guys I'm seeing on the waiver wire, and their situations are nearly as bad as Mixon's. Cohen is long gone.

I figure it's the same for most people currently in this situation. Mixon has talent, and the path to opportunity is there, and I don't think there are many waiver wire options at this point with a mix of talent/opportunity that are more appetizing that that. It's not a guaranteed thing, in any sense. It's simply a guy I took a flier on, and I like his chance to break through better than any other flier I could pick up (since that's exactly what I'd be picking up, a guy with talent in a lousy situation but with the potential of breaking out, since all of the other clear cut sure things are long gone).

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2 hours ago, Jello_Biafra said:

Who said anything about lopsided. I'm saying situation is big, even in dynasty, which is the only format I play. I don't see people tripping over themselves to nab Gurley. He has all the talent in the world, but it's meaningless if he's going to spend a few years on a bad team and not produce.

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"Does anyone actually believe that someone would offer Hunt or Cook for Mixon? Ignoring situation is a mistake that I unfortunately made. I'd move him in a heartbeat for either of them."

Just this statement that you claim  it's unbelievable that anyone would offer Hunt for Mixon. 

You make it sound like this would be a lopsided trade, where I believe it's a very fair swap.

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2 hours ago, Casting Couch said:

Kareem Hunt was a mid to low first round dynasty pick, and Mixon / Cook were part of the interchangeable top 4 RBs.

Hunt absolutely destroyed New England in his record setting performance in game 1. The Mixon / Hunt swap is not nearly as lopsided as you make it out to be.

I agree with this.  I have Hunt just over Mixon, but like guys plenty--it's a close call.  

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